Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Accelerates Data-Center Ramp, Outlook Points Higher

Semtech delivered strong top-line momentum across its infrastructure product lines while short-term technical momentum shows signs of exhaustion; valuation remains rich relative to embedded cash generation. Near-term direction will depend on whether short-term momentum indicators recover or give way to a corrective leg.

Recent News

On June 22, 2026 Semtech’s AirLink OS 6.1 rollout and release notes highlighted multi-profile SIM automation, Secure Boot updates, and broader feature coverage for EX400 and RX400 5G RedCap routers. The company also held its 2026 virtual annual meeting via webcast on June 4, 2026 with routine proxy disclosures and board/pay matters reported.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX/DI+/DI-): ADX at 21.79 signals an emerging trend strength. DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal, which counts as a bearish signal, and DI- is increasing, which also reads as bearish pressure. Together this points to emerging directional risk against the short-term up-leg that produced recent gains.

MACD: MACD sits at 5.59 below its signal line at 8.14 with a documented peak-and-reversal; that configuration denotes fading bullish momentum and favors short-term downward pressure until MACD recovers above its signal line.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 29.8 is positive, indicating price currently sits above the model target and is more likely to move lower toward fair-value range if momentum validates a reversal. The recent peak-and-reversal on the MRO reinforces potential mean reversion risk.

RSI: RSI near 59.9 with a peak-and-reversal shows waning upward momentum without reaching overbought extremes; the indicator signals loss of short-term upward conviction rather than oversold support for an immediate rebound.

Price vs moving averages and bands: Price closed at $156.14, below the 20-day average of $160.79 and the 12-day EMA that has peaked and reversed, while remaining above the 50-day average of $139.50 and the 200-day average of $91.85. This alignment implies the medium-term trend stays constructive but short-term momentum has weakened; the 1x Bollinger lower band sits near $152.29 and the super trend support near $144.73, which serve as reference support levels on a corrective move.

Volatility and volume: 42‑day beta registers 3.75 and 52‑week beta 2.98, indicating elevated sensitivity to market moves. Recent volume of ~3.46M trades undercuts the 10‑day average (~5.97M) but exceeds the 200‑day average (~2.30M), suggesting episodic liquidity and the potential for volatile intraday swings if momentum shifts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & margins: Operating (and EBIT) margin at 9.25% compares to the industry peer mean of 78.24% and the industry peer median of 80.11%; the company’s margin figures sit well below the industry peer mean and median. Quarter-over-quarter EBIT margin moved by -185.61% and year-over-year change shows -31.00%, reflecting margin compression on the reported cadence despite positive top-line moves.

Revenue and earnings: Total revenue of $291,018,000 pairs with YoY revenue growth of +263.09% and sequential revenue growth of +119.60% as reported in the supplied metrics. Reported EPS actual of $0.51 exceeded the estimate of $0.45, producing an EPS surprise ratio of 13.33% (EPS beat of $0.06).

Cash, leverage, and capital returns: Cash and short-term investments total $163,310,000 with operating cash flow of $36,183,000 and free cash flow of $22,737,000 (free cash flow yield 0.23%). Net debt stands at $328,672,000 with total debt $491,982,000 and debt-to-equity of 0.86; interest coverage at 14.50 supports near-term serviceability of interest costs.

Efficiency & working capital: Asset turnover measures 0.2043 and cash conversion cycle ≈128.35 days (slightly above the industry peer mean of 120.31 days), indicating heavier working-capital needs relative to the average peer. Receivables turnover at 1.74 improved QoQ by +2.90% and YoY by +13.47%.

Valuation metrics: Price multiples run high: P/E ≈207.62 (forward PE ≈90.34), P/S ≈33.89 (forward PS ≈39.80), and P/B ≈17.20—P/B sits above the industry peer mean of 8.70 and above the industry peer high of 14.86. Enterprise multiple and EV-based metrics also skew elevated versus historic comparators. WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting the combination of lofty market multiples, modest free cash flow yield, and margin levels below the industry peer mean and median.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-04-30
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-26
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-25
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 195.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 36.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -13.45 M
 Change In Working Capital -31.18 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -31.87 M
 End Period Cash Flow 163.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 291.0 M
 Forward Revenue 247.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 139.6 M
 Depreciation 10.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 10.7 M
 Research and Development 57.6 M
 Total Operating Expenses 264.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 151.5 M
 EBITDA 37.6 M
 EBIT 26.9 M
 Operating Income 27.0 M
 Interest Income 888.0 K
 Interest Expense 1.9 M
 Net Interest Income -968.00 K
 Income Before Tax 25.1 M
 Tax Provision 112.0 K
 Tax Rate 0.447 %
 Net Income 26.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 26.6 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.45
 EPS Actual 0.51
 EPS Difference 0.06
 EPS Surprise 13.333 %
 Forward EPS 0.97
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 530.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 43.2 M
 Total Current Assets 648.7 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 163.3 M
 Cash 163.3 M
 Net Receivables 174.8 M
 Inventory 204.7 M
 Long-Term Investments 121.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 90.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 273.7 M
 Net Debt 328.7 M
 Total Debt 492.0 M
 Total Liabilities 865.6 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 573.3 M
 Retained Earnings -409.50 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 6.16
 Shares Outstanding 93.129 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.12
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 9.9 B
 Enterprise Value 10.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 270.683
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -161.746 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 240.645 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA SMTC: 270.683
high: 169.931
mean: 27.738
median: 23.495
low: -212.588
 EV/R 35.015
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.51
 Asset To Liability 1.662
 Debt To Capital 0.462
 Debt To Assets 0.342
Debt To Assets QoQ -3.035 %
Debt To Assets YoY -9.774 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA SMTC: 0.342
high: 0.048
median: 0.048
mean: 0.046
low: 0.011
 Debt To Equity 0.858
Debt To Equity QoQ -5.141 %
Debt To Equity YoY -10.048 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA SMTC: 0.858
high: 0.063
median: 0.063
mean: 0.061
low: 0.012
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 17.2
Price To Book QoQ 24.38 %
Price To Book YoY 205.35 %
Price To Book IPRWA SMTC: 17.2
high: 14.859
mean: 8.701
median: 8.494
low: 5.016
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 207.621
Price To Earnings QoQ 11.362 %
Price To Earnings YoY 112.434 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 629.789
SMTC: 207.621
mean: 36.128
low: 30.204
median: 30.204
 PE/G Ratio 13.051
 Price To Sales (P/S) 33.885
Price To Sales QoQ 22.293 %
Price To Sales YoY 165.512 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 70.166
SMTC: 33.885
mean: 22.377
low: 20.637
median: 20.637
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 90.338
Forward PE/G 5.678
Forward P/S 39.798
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -31.417
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.204
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.84 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 15.99 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.352
median: 0.352
mean: 0.346
SMTC: 0.204
low: 0.126
 Receivables Turnover 1.736
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.899 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 13.472 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.562
median: 1.961
mean: 1.959
low: 1.834
SMTC: 1.736
 Inventory Turnover 0.697
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.313 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -2.865 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.76
median: 0.76
mean: 0.755
SMTC: 0.697
low: 0.606
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 52.574
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 128.347
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -3.474 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -6.624 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 141.483
SMTC: 128.347
mean: 120.315
median: 119.759
low: 63.13
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.776
 CapEx To Revenue -0.046
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.253
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 43.2 M
 Net Working Capital 375.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.597
 Current Ratio 2.37
Current Ratio QoQ -0.177 %
Current Ratio YoY -6.495 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 10.153
mean: 3.653
median: 3.425
low: 2.427
SMTC: 2.37
 Quick Ratio 1.622
Quick Ratio QoQ -2.568 %
Quick Ratio YoY -10.535 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 8.88
mean: 3.185
median: 2.985
low: 1.946
SMTC: 1.622
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 13.069
 Cost Of Debt 0.374 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 14.499
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -136.012 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 188.462 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 1037.875
median: 1037.875
mean: 1001.643
SMTC: 14.499
low: -15.098
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.074
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 58.487
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.028 %
 Revenue Growth 6.074 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 119.595 %
Revenue Growth YoY 26308.696 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 73.747 %
median: 73.747 %
mean: 71.204 %
SMTC: 6.074 %
low: -0.506 %
 Earnings Growth 15.909 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -290.916 %
Earnings Growth YoY -418.18 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 105.82 %
median: 105.82 %
mean: 102.047 %
SMTC: 15.909 %
low: -15.385 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 52.046 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.268 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.474 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 84.562 %
median: 84.562 %
mean: 83.909 %
low: 58.381 %
SMTC: 52.046 %
 EBIT Margin 9.247 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -185.612 %
EBIT Margin YoY -31.003 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 80.114 %
median: 80.114 %
mean: 78.241 %
SMTC: 9.247 %
low: -19.347 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.267 %
Return On Sales QoQ -5.986 %
Return On Sales YoY -30.854 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 80.37 %
median: 80.37 %
mean: 78.488 %
SMTC: 9.267 %
low: -19.347 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 22.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.231 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -69.961 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -71.125 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.053 %
median: 2.053 %
mean: 1.992 %
SMTC: 0.231 %
low: -0.974 %
 Free Cash Growth -61.099 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -256.112 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 285.848 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 218.383 %
median: 218.383 %
mean: 210.022 %
SMTC: -61.099 %
low: -297.562 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.856
 Cash Flow Margin 6.962 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.763
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.865 %
Return On Assets QoQ -188.138 %
Return On Assets YoY 37.436 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 23.973 %
median: 23.973 %
mean: 23.326 %
SMTC: 1.865 %
low: -2.271 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.309 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.046
Return On Equity QoQ -185.48 %
Return On Equity YoY 36.225 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.28
median: 0.28
mean: 0.273
SMTC: 0.046
low: -0.03
 DuPont ROE 4.731 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.515 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -191.156 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 22.384 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 27.207 %
median: 27.207 %
mean: 26.326 %
SMTC: 2.515 %
low: -1.923 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term momentum indicators currently favor a corrective leg: MACD and DI+ peak-and-reversals plus an above-target MRO point to pullback risk toward the immediate support band near $152 and the super trend level near $144 if selling accelerates. Medium-term technicals remain constructive while price holds above the 50‑day and 200‑day averages, but elevated beta increases the probability of sharp intraperiod swings. Monitor confirmation of MACD recovery above its signal line or a sustained drop below the 20‑day average for clearer directional conviction; expect elevated volatility and trading range expansion over the coming six weeks.

About Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) designs, develops, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company delivers signal integrity solutions, offering optical data communications and video transport products for infrastructure and industrial applications. Semtech provides integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, and high-speed interface applications, alongside video products for broadcast and video-over-IP technology for professional audio-visual applications. In the protection segment, Semtech offers devices that integrate filter and termination solutions with transient voltage suppressors to safeguard electronic systems against voltage spikes. The company’s sensing products include specialized radio frequency solutions for industrial, medical, and communications sectors, along with advanced sensing technologies. Semtech also develops power management solutions such as switching voltage regulators, smart regulators, and wireless charging products. Its Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio features modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based solutions for various applications. Serving original equipment manufacturers and industrial markets, Semtech distributes its products directly and through independent sales representatives and distributors across Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe. Founded in 1960, Semtech Corporation maintains its headquarters in Camarillo, California.



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