Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Trades Higher With Near-Term Upside Momentum

Operational cash flow and short-term technical momentum support a cautiously constructive near-term posture for Vistra, while corporate financing actions and high valuation metrics frame risk. The next weeks should reflect a tug between short-term momentum and longer-term valuation resistance.

Recent News

On April 8, 2026 the company launched a private offering of multiple series of senior unsecured notes to qualified institutional buyers. On April 30, 2026 the board declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.2290 per share and announced distributions on preferred series. Commentary and summaries in late April/early May noted hedging of ~98% of 2026 volumes, $6.3 billion in share repurchases executed since 2021, and available liquidity of approximately $4,173 million as of March 31, 2026.

Technical Analysis

ADX registers 17.29, indicating no established trend; that low ADX suggests near-term moves may remain range-bound rather than trending decisively higher or lower.

Directional indicators show DI+ at 28.28 and increasing, which reads as bullish short-term directional pressure; DI‑ sits at 19.98 and has undergone a peak-and-reversal, which also reads as bullish because DI‑ has moved lower. Together these imply short-term buying pressure despite the lack of a confirmed trend.

MACD stands at 1.44, trending higher and above its signal line (-0.25), which constitutes a bullish momentum signal and supports potential near-term continuation of recent gains.

MRO reads -10.42 and is increasing; the negative value indicates price currently sits below the internal target and therefore carries technical potential to rise toward that target as the oscillator moves upward.

RSI at 52.65 and rising indicates neutral-to-mild bullish momentum without overbought extremes, leaving room for additional upside before technical exhaustion.

Price sits above short-term averages (20-day average $153.02, 50-day average $154.45, 12-day EMA $156.03 with a dip-and-reversal on the 12-day EMA) but below the 200-day average ($169.90), creating a short-term bullish bias with a nearby longer-term resistance level to clear.

Bollinger band placement shows the close near the 2x standard-deviation upper band boundary range (upper 1x $161.74; upper 2x $170.47), implying strength but also proximity to short-term volatility resistance. Volume matches recent averages, indicating the move contains typical participation rather than extreme conviction. Beta measures (42‑day 1.65, 52‑week 1.58) signal above-market volatility for intraday and swing moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBITDA totaled $2,173,000,000 and EBIT $1,455,000,000 for the period ending March 31, 2026; EBIT margin equals 25.80%, which sits above the industry peer mean (8.96%) but below the industry peer median (51.45%), indicating better-than-average operating conversion versus peers on a mean basis but not at the top of the peer distribution. EBIT margin quarter‑over‑quarter shows a change of +112.31% and year‑over‑year reported at -604.75% per the supplied metrics.

Revenue and margins: Total revenue reached $5,640,000,000 and gross margin registered 42.73%, with gross margin QoQ up ~26.21% and YoY up ~111.92% per the provided figures; operating margin measured 26.58% with operating margin QoQ +93.69% and YoY -620.02% per supplied values. Those margin levels support current valuation through strong operating economics, though the year‑over‑year dynamics require context from underlying period items.

Earnings and cash flow: Net income reached $1,029,000,000 and operating cash flow totaled $1,787,000,000. EPS came in at $2.87 versus an estimate of $1.87, a beat of $1.00 representing a 53.48% EPS surprise. Free cash flow totaled $316,000,000 for a free cash flow yield of 0.58%, and free cash flow growth shows a decline of -46.98% year-over-year in the provided figures, indicating cash generation but modest yield relative to market capitalization.

Leverage and coverage: Total debt measured $19,913,000,000 with net debt $19,279,000,000. Debt-to-EBITDA registers 9.16 and debt-to-equity 6.38, while interest coverage stands near 5.99x—above the industry peer mean interest coverage of 0.56x—indicating adequate earnings cushion for interest but materially elevated leverage metrics on an absolute basis.

Balance sheet and working capital: Cash and short-term investments total $634,000,000; current ratio sits at 0.90 and quick ratio 0.79, both near or slightly below typical peer medians. Net working capital records a negative $1,043,000,000, reflecting working capital absorption consistent with industry capital intensity and commodity exposure.

Valuation: Price-to-earnings reads 55.85x with forward PE ~59.62x; price-to-book registers 17.36x, which stands well above the industry peer mean (1.35x) and median (2.34x). Enterprise value / revenue and enterprise multiple figures sit at EV ≈ $73.47 billion and an enterprise multiple of 33.81x. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over‑valued, reflecting that strong operating metrics and an earnings beat coexist with high market multiples and elevated leverage.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-08
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 822.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.8 B
 Capital Expenditures -883.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -170.00 M
 Dividends Paid -98.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta -145.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 677.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 5.6 B
 Forward Revenue 1.3 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.2 B
 Depreciation 718.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 718.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 2.4 B
 EBITDA 2.2 B
 EBIT 1.5 B
 Operating Income 1.5 B
 Interest Income 7.0 M
 Interest Expense 243.0 M
 Net Interest Income -272.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.2 B
 Tax Provision 183.0 M
 Tax Rate 15.1 %
 Net Income 1.0 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 1.0 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.87
 EPS Actual 2.87
 EPS Difference 1.00
 EPS Surprise 53.476 %
 Forward EPS 2.74
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 41.3 B
 Intangible Assets 5.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 424.0 M
 Total Current Assets 9.0 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 634.0 M
 Cash 634.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.0 B
 Inventory 1.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.6 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.4 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.6 B
 Total Current Liabilities 10.1 B
 Net Debt 19.3 B
 Total Debt 19.9 B
 Total Liabilities 35.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.1 B
 Retained Earnings 903.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.23
 Shares Outstanding 338.080 M
 Revenue Per-Share 16.68
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 54.2 B
 Enterprise Value 73.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 33.812
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -42.995 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -68.445 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 100.362
median: 38.611
VST: 33.812
mean: 32.934
low: -13.125
 EV/R 13.027
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 13.236
 Asset To Liability 1.157
 Debt To Capital 0.865
 Debt To Assets 0.482
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.19 %
Debt To Assets YoY 4.202 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.768
VST: 0.482
mean: 0.386
median: 0.385
low: 0.187
 Debt To Equity 6.38
Debt To Equity QoQ -16.669 %
Debt To Equity YoY -15.254 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 7.013
VST: 6.38
median: 1.327
mean: 1.302
low: -5.708
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 17.364
Price To Book QoQ -19.814 %
Price To Book YoY -7.425 %
Price To Book IPRWA VST: 17.364
high: 4.788
median: 2.34
mean: 1.355
low: -2.783
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 55.854
Price To Earnings QoQ -82.036 %
Price To Earnings YoY -140.054 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 457.496
mean: 135.224
VST: 55.854
median: 18.839
low: -101.597
 PE/G Ratio 0.129
 Price To Sales (P/S) 9.609
Price To Sales QoQ -22.394 %
Price To Sales YoY -14.227 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 64.929
mean: 15.24
VST: 9.609
median: 3.253
low: 0.066
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 59.623
Forward PE/G 0.138
Forward P/S 42.706
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 6.998
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.136
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 18.157 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 31.536 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA VST: 0.136
high: 0.09
median: 0.061
mean: 0.059
low: 0.01
 Receivables Turnover 2.619
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 32.835 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 30.051 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA VST: 2.619
high: 2.448
median: 1.628
mean: 1.6
low: 1.032
 Inventory Turnover 3.157
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.406 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -2.966 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 12.769
mean: 5.941
median: 4.506
low: 4.032
VST: 3.157
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 34.842
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 20.441
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -33.843 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -27.802 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 58.932
VST: 20.441
median: -2.301
mean: -19.537
low: -229.515
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -5.407
 CapEx To Revenue -0.157
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.23
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 22.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Invested Capital 23.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 424.0 M
 Net Working Capital -1.04 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.063
 Current Ratio 0.896
Current Ratio QoQ 15.361 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.698 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.403
median: 1.005
VST: 0.896
mean: 0.84
low: 0.333
 Quick Ratio 0.794
Quick Ratio QoQ 14.901 %
Quick Ratio YoY 3.656 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.024
median: 0.935
VST: 0.794
mean: 0.792
low: 0.331
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 9.164
 Cost Of Debt 1.032 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.988
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 167.67 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -823.881 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA VST: 5.988
high: 2.387
median: 1.686
mean: 0.557
low: -5.228
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.178
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 45.189
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 10.5
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.095
 Dividend Rate 0.29
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.582 %
 Revenue Growth 23.037 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -395.915 %
Revenue Growth YoY -994.293 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 46.325 %
VST: 23.037 %
median: 9.482 %
mean: 6.426 %
low: -28.169 %
 Earnings Growth 431.481 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -724.041 %
Earnings Growth YoY -316.894 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA VST: 431.481 %
high: 94.03 %
mean: 39.29 %
median: 21.212 %
low: -4.938 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 42.73 %
Gross Margin QoQ 26.207 %
Gross Margin YoY 111.923 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 71.704 %
VST: 42.73 %
median: 41.188 %
mean: 40.745 %
low: -10.71 %
 EBIT Margin 25.798 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 112.312 %
EBIT Margin YoY -604.754 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 60.241 %
median: 51.446 %
VST: 25.798 %
mean: 8.959 %
low: -220.838 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 26.578 %
Return On Sales QoQ 93.689 %
Return On Sales YoY -620.016 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 52.164 %
median: 31.887 %
mean: 27.433 %
VST: 26.578 %
low: -31.137 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 316.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.583 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -44.476 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -251.823 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 0.988 %
VST: 0.583 %
median: -1.884 %
mean: -2.027 %
low: -5.462 %
 Free Cash Growth -46.98 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 14.776 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -60.291 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: -12.075 %
VST: -46.98 %
mean: -125.013 %
median: -138.848 %
low: -369.729 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.307
 Cash Flow Margin 31.684 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.737
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.484 %
Return On Assets QoQ 323.891 %
Return On Assets YoY -452.34 %
Return On Assets IPRWA VST: 2.484 %
high: 0.931 %
median: 0.442 %
mean: -0.404 %
low: -4.688 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.656 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.33
Return On Equity QoQ 270.866 %
Return On Equity YoY -388.982 %
Return On Equity IPRWA VST: 0.33
high: 0.11
median: 0.071
mean: 0.055
low: -0.078
 DuPont ROE 35.843 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.363 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 188.799 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -972.033 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA VST: 5.363 %
high: 3.118 %
mean: 1.876 %
median: 1.008 %
low: -0.371 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term bias: Momentum indicators (MACD positive and rising, DI+ increasing, RSI above midline) favor further upside attempts, while a low ADX warns that moves may remain choppy and range-limited until a trend establishes. The MRO negative and rising suggests technical potential to close the gap toward internal targets.

Resistance and risk: Near-term resistance clusters around the 200-day average (~$169.90) and the upper volatility band (~$170.47); failure to clear these levels likely produces consolidation. Elevated leverage and high market multiples increase sensitivity to macro/commodity news and any re-rating risk.

Expected action profile: Expect a period of short-term upside pressure balanced by range resistance—swings could be larger than average given beta >1.5 and proximity to volatility bands, with company financing activity (note offering and dividend declarations) supplying liquidity context for price moves.

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) develops and manages an integrated retail electricity and power generation business. The company segments its operations into Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout the United States and the District of Columbia. Vistra Corp. generates electricity, engages in wholesale energy transactions, and manages commodity risk, fuel production, and logistics. The company’s energy production portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities, with a total generation capacity of approximately 41,000 megawatts. Serving around 5 million customers, Vistra Corp. provides reliable energy solutions across its diverse asset base. Originally founded in 1882 and headquartered in Irving, Texas, the company transitioned from Vistra Energy Corp. to Vistra Corp. in July 2020.



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