Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) Poised For Near-Term Upside Amid Improving Momentum

Momentum indicators align with a tactical bullish bias while fundamentals show cash-generation strength amid high leverage; WMDST values the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On April 30 the company announced several corporate initiatives including sponsorship and experiential marketing plans tied to major events; in late May and early June management scheduled investor appearances, including a June fireside chat at a major travel & leisure conference, and the company reported multiple industry awards for its resort operations. These items present demand and branding catalysts through the summer months.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators: ADX at 15.79 indicates a lack of a strong trend; DI+ at 23.76 shows a dip-and-reversal (bullish) while DI- at 17.80 shows a peak-and-reversal (bullish), producing a short-term directional bias but without trend strength to sustain an extended breakout.

MACD stands at 1.11 and trends higher with the MACD line above the 1.04 signal line, which constitutes a bullish momentum cross and supports continuation of the recent upside into the near term.

MRO reads 26.97 and the oscillator is decreasing; the positive value implies price currently trades above target and that mean-reversion pressure could cap rapid gains, so expect elevated probability of pullback attempts during any strong advance.

RSI at 59.07 and rising signals constructive momentum that has not reached overbought territory; rising EMA and short-term moving averages confirm price sits above the 20‑day, 50‑day and 200‑day references (price close $52.73 vs 200‑day $44.85), reinforcing a bullish posture for the next several weeks.

Bollinger placement shows the close near the upper 1‑standard band (upper ~ $52.37) and below the 2‑standard band, indicating price sits in an elevated band zone where volatility may expand; recent volume (1,858,931) exceeds the 10‑day average, lending conviction to the move but increasing the chance of short-term retracements.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT of $147,000,000 produces an EBIT margin of 11.44%, up 84.96% YoY but down 9.77% QoQ; the margin sits above the industry peer low but below the industry peer mean and median, implying improved operating efficiency year-over-year but room to close gaps with peers.

Revenue and earnings: total revenue equals $1,285,000,000 with reported revenue growth YoY of -66.00% and sequential revenue change of -3.60%; net income equals $66,000,000 while EPS came in at $0.99 versus an estimate of $0.59, a positive EPS surprise of approximately 67.8%.

Cash flow and liquidity: operating cash flow reached $128,000,000 and free cash flow totaled $108,000,000, delivering a free cash flow yield of 3.01%, which sits above the industry peer mean and supports the WMDST under-valued assessment; cash conversion cycle stands at -154.77 days, indicating significant cash collection efficiency relative to payables timing.

Leverage and coverage: total debt equals $7,395,000,000 with net debt $7,048,000,000 and debt-to-EBITDA about 33.92x; interest coverage sits at 2.01x, below the industry peer mean, reflecting material leverage that elevates financial risk even as operating cash generation remains positive.

Capital structure and returns: return on equity near 5.51% and return on assets near 0.56% reflect modest returns given scale; book value per share roughly $14.84 while price multiples trade at a PE near 44.90 and a forward PE near 30.83, both below certain industry peer averages, consistent with WMDST’s valuation view of the stock as under-valued.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued, citing free cash flow yield above industry peer mean, forward earnings multiples below peer averages, and a price target mean near current levels; these fundamentals support the case for relative value while acknowledging elevated leverage and margin variability.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 571.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 128.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -20.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -108.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -19.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 552.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.3 B
 Forward Revenue 578.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 957.0 M
 Depreciation 71.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 71.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 328.0 M
 EBITDA 218.0 M
 EBIT 147.0 M
 Operating Income 155.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 73.0 M
 Net Interest Income -73.00 M
 Income Before Tax 74.0 M
 Tax Provision 6.0 M
 Tax Rate 8.108 %
 Net Income 66.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 68.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.59
 EPS Actual 0.99
 EPS Difference 0.40
 EPS Surprise 67.797 %
 Forward EPS 1.47
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.9 B
 Intangible Assets 3.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.42 B
 Total Current Assets 6.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 261.0 M
 Cash 261.0 M
 Net Receivables 205.0 M
 Inventory 2.5 B
 Long-Term Investments 818.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.3 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 2.1 B
 Net Debt 7.0 B
 Total Debt 7.4 B
 Total Liabilities 10.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.2 B
 Retained Earnings -5.00 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 14.84
 Shares Outstanding 80.656 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.93
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 3.6 B
 Enterprise Value 10.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 49.169
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 12.279 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -33.536 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 61.865
median: 56.393
mean: 52.353
HGV: 49.169
low: -16.979
 EV/R 8.342
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.971
 Asset To Liability 1.128
 Debt To Capital 0.861
 Debt To Assets 0.62
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.742 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3.862 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.841
HGV: 0.62
mean: 0.54
median: 0.519
low: 0.516
 Debt To Equity 6.178
Debt To Equity QoQ 8.345 %
Debt To Equity YoY 39.054 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 10.534
HGV: 6.178
mean: 2.498
median: 2.221
low: -5.63
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.995
Price To Book QoQ 1.771 %
Price To Book YoY 38.016 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 16.535
median: 7.689
mean: 5.881
HGV: 2.995
low: -4.431
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 44.895
Price To Earnings QoQ -13.413 %
Price To Earnings YoY -120.762 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 87.855
median: 78.13
mean: 74.369
HGV: 44.895
low: 23.86
 PE/G Ratio 3.592
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.79
Price To Sales QoQ -1.962 %
Price To Sales YoY -6.764 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 6.304
median: 6.304
mean: 5.511
HGV: 2.79
low: 1.836
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 30.833
Forward PE/G 2.467
Forward P/S 6.453
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.615
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.109
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.65 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.786 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.194
mean: 0.114
HGV: 0.109
median: 0.106
low: 0.101
 Receivables Turnover 6.346
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 860.695 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 11.186
median: 11.186
mean: 10.018
HGV: 6.346
low: 1.348
 Inventory Turnover 0.378
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.989 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -4.374 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.158
median: 8.4
mean: 8.084
HGV: 0.378
low: 0.059
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 14.38
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -154.768
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -178.573 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -154.239 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 59.837
mean: -11.229
median: -20.915
low: -74.342
HGV: -154.768
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.292
 CapEx To Revenue -0.016
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.282
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 8.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 8.5 B
 Invested Capital 8.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.42 B
 Net Working Capital 4.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.125
 Current Ratio 3.104
Current Ratio QoQ -24.366 %
Current Ratio YoY -7.324 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.388
HGV: 3.104
mean: 0.402
low: 0.199
median: 0.199
 Quick Ratio 1.89
Quick Ratio QoQ -25.318 %
Quick Ratio YoY -10.567 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.671
HGV: 1.89
mean: 0.333
low: 0.175
median: 0.175
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 33.922
 Cost Of Debt 0.91 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.014
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -9.443 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 118.387 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 7.026
median: 4.511
mean: 3.581
HGV: 2.014
low: 1.649
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.632
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) -60.019
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.45 %
 Revenue Growth -3.601 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -241.883 %
Revenue Growth YoY -66.003 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 4.556 %
median: 4.556 %
mean: 1.828 %
HGV: -3.601 %
low: -6.244 %
 Earnings Growth 12.5 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -73.214 %
Earnings Growth YoY -106.597 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 28.571 %
median: 28.571 %
HGV: 12.5 %
mean: 7.833 %
low: -212.885 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 25.525 %
Gross Margin QoQ -27.607 %
Gross Margin YoY 17.211 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 92.924 %
median: 49.528 %
mean: 43.073 %
HGV: 25.525 %
low: -9.969 %
 EBIT Margin 11.44 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -9.765 %
EBIT Margin YoY 84.964 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 32.069 %
median: 28.167 %
mean: 21.028 %
HGV: 11.44 %
low: 7.08 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 12.062 %
Return On Sales QoQ -42.576 %
Return On Sales YoY 95.02 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.965 %
median: 26.101 %
mean: 19.902 %
HGV: 12.062 %
low: 7.637 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 108.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.013 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -8.558 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 1621.714 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.707 %
HGV: 3.013 %
median: 1.768 %
mean: 1.178 %
low: -6.74 %
 Free Cash Growth -13.6 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -99.578 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -84.457 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 1050.0 %
median: 1050.0 %
mean: 904.565 %
HGV: -13.6 %
low: -79.348 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.636
 Cash Flow Margin 102.957 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 20.045
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.562 %
Return On Assets QoQ 36.077 %
Return On Assets YoY -484.932 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.696 %
median: 2.251 %
mean: 1.607 %
HGV: 0.562 %
low: 0.227 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.494 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.055
Return On Equity QoQ 48.067 %
Return On Equity YoY -613.408 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.096
median: 0.096
mean: 0.062
HGV: 0.055
low: -0.157
 DuPont ROE 5.309 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.588 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 1.665 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 217.6 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.146 %
median: 3.947 %
mean: 3.102 %
HGV: 1.588 %
low: 0.725 %

Six-Week Outlook

Bias: mildly bullish. Near-term upside receives confirmation from the MACD crossover, DI+ reversal, rising RSI, and price sitting above key moving averages; sustained strength requires continuation of these signals and volume support. Risk: ADX below 20 signals limited trend depth, MRO positive warns of mean reversion pressure, and high leverage/low interest coverage could amplify negative reactions to adverse headlines. Monitor whether MACD maintains above‑signal momentum and whether MRO decreases toward zero; failure of price to hold above the short-term band and the super-trend upper reference near $53.12 would raise odds of a pullback toward shorter moving-average support. Expect event-driven volatility from management investor appearances and marketing activations over the next six weeks to act as catalysts for directional moves.

About Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) develops and manages upscale timeshare resorts under the esteemed Hilton brand. Established in 1992 and headquartered in Orlando, Florida, the company crafts exceptional vacation experiences through a diverse portfolio of properties. HGV operates primarily through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. In the Real Estate Sales and Financing segment, HGV markets and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs), offers consumer financing solutions, and collaborates with third-party developers to source VOIs. This segment plays a crucial role in expanding the company’s reach and enhancing its offerings. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages a network of clubs, providing members with exclusive exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services. This segment also oversees the rental of available inventory through ownership exchanges and enriches guest experiences with amenities such as dining, retail, and spa services at its properties. Hilton Grand Vacations ensures guests enjoy memorable vacations by combining the trusted Hilton brand with innovative vacation ownership solutions, delivering unparalleled hospitality and experiences at stunning destinations worldwide.



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