YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Accelerates Export Push After Q1 Profit

Momentum in production and corporate restructuring supports a near-term bullish bias, though trend strength remains limited and mean-reversion risk exists. The current valuation, as determined by WMDST, classifies the stock as under-valued.

Recent News

On May 7 the board approved condensed interim financial statements for Q1 2026, reporting a return to net profit attributable to shareholders.

On April 30 YPF closed a transaction to acquire full interest in the Southern Hub assets previously held by Pluspetrol, expanding control of key Argentina upstream blocks.

In mid-April YPF awarded a long-term unconventional completions contract to Halliburton, a multibillion-dollar agreement to support shale development.

Press coverage in the past two weeks highlighted a newly filed export project for Vaca Muerta estimated at $25 billion under Argentina’s export regime, triggering renewed investor attention.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show bullish signal convergence despite weak trend strength: DI+ at 28.75 displays a dip-and-reversal (bullish) while DI– at 21.51 shows a peak-and-reversal (bullish); ADX at 15.36 indicates no established trend, implying momentum may produce short rallies rather than a sustained directional move.

MACD sits at 1.09 above the signal line at 0.77 and shows a dip-and-reversal; the cross above the signal line confirms bullish momentum and supports further upside attempts in the near term.

MRO registers 25.76 with a dip-and-reversal; the positive MRO level signals the current price sits above the WMDST target and creates a material mean-reversion risk that could cap gains if momentum stalls.

RSI at 57.97 with a dip-and-reversal indicates mild bullish momentum without overbought readings, consistent with continued upside room before corrective pressure increases.

Price sits above key averages: close at $47.94 exceeds the 20-day average $44.89, 50-day average $43.23 and 200-day average $35.85; the 12-day EMA shows an increasing trend, and Ichimoku components (Tenkan at $45.31, Kijun at $44.17, cloud levels near $41–$43) provide structural support beneath current levels. Price trades near the upper Bollinger band, suggesting elevated short-term volatility. SuperTrend lower level at $44.22 offers a measurable support reference.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT reached $897,000,000 with an EBIT margin of 18.15%. That margin sits above the industry peer mean of 15.20% and above the industry peer median of 15.50%, reflecting stronger operating conversion relative to peers. EBIT margin expanded roughly 36.1% quarter-over-quarter and about 176.9% year-over-year, indicating substantial margin recovery versus recent periods.

Income and cash flow: Net income from continuing operations totaled $409,000,000. Operating cash flow measured $1,865,000,000 and free cash flow reached $775,000,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 4.81%. Cash flow margin stands at 31.05%, and cash flow to earnings sits at 380%, signaling high cash conversion relative to reported earnings.

Leverage and coverage: Total debt $10,757,000,000 yields a net debt position of $8,791,000,000 and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 6.56x, indicating elevated leverage by absolute standards. Interest coverage equals 3.66x, which falls below the industry peer mean of 11.64x and leaves limited buffer against rising rates or weaker operating cash flow.

Operating efficiency: Asset turnover sits at 0.165, near the industry peer mean of 0.169, while return on equity registers 3.55% and return on invested capital 2.62%, consistent with modest returns on capital despite margin recovery. Revenue totaled $4,943,000,000 with YoY revenue growth of 8.78%; however quarter-over-quarter revenue growth declined by 5.12%.

Valuation context: Price multiples show a trailing P/E of 42.33 and a forward P/E of 22.39; price-to-book stands at 1.42 while enterprise multiple sits at 15.35. WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on the firm’s cash generation, improving margins, and the forward multiple relative to growth expectations.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 933.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.9 B
 Capital Expenditures -1.09 B
 Change In Working Capital 161.0 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 393.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.3 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.9 B
 Forward Revenue 1.7 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.2 B
 Depreciation 726.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 743.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.8 B
 EBITDA 1.6 B
 EBIT 897.0 M
 Operating Income 873.0 M
 Interest Income 27.0 M
 Interest Expense 245.0 M
 Net Interest Income -293.00 M
 Income Before Tax 652.0 M
 Tax Provision 243.0 M
 Tax Rate 37.27 %
 Net Income 404.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 409.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.88
 EPS Actual 0.97
 EPS Difference 0.09
 EPS Surprise 10.227 %
 Forward EPS 1.43
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 30.4 B
 Intangible Assets 437.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 10.9 B
 Total Current Assets 6.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.7 B
 Cash 1.3 B
 Net Receivables 1.9 B
 Inventory 1.5 B
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.3 B
 Short-Term Debt 1.6 B
 Total Current Liabilities 7.2 B
 Net Debt 8.8 B
 Total Debt 10.8 B
 Total Liabilities 18.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 11.4 B
 Retained Earnings -352.00 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 28.96
 Shares Outstanding 392.411 M
 Revenue Per-Share 12.60
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 16.1 B
 Enterprise Value 25.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 15.352
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -12.484 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -79.116 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 104.904
median: 40.509
mean: 38.196
YPF: 15.352
low: -85.14
 EV/R 5.094
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.671
 Asset To Liability 1.621
 Debt To Capital 0.486
 Debt To Assets 0.354
Debt To Assets QoQ -6.462 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2.63 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.622
YPF: 0.354
median: 0.199
mean: 0.197
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 0.946
Debt To Equity QoQ -8.227 %
Debt To Equity YoY 7.843 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.445
YPF: 0.946
mean: 0.62
median: 0.436
low: 0.008
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.418
Price To Book QoQ 7.57 %
Price To Book YoY 25.815 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.391
median: 2.44
mean: 2.261
YPF: 1.418
low: -1.668
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 42.332
Price To Earnings QoQ -294.658 %
Price To Earnings YoY -58.287 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 202.32
mean: 67.829
YPF: 42.332
median: 38.031
low: -49.343
 PE/G Ratio -0.268
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.26
Price To Sales QoQ 3.935 %
Price To Sales YoY 14.039 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 57.114
mean: 8.193
median: 7.465
YPF: 3.26
low: 0.049
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 22.393
Forward PE/G -0.142
Forward P/S 7.888
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 5.469
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.165
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.35 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.028 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.511
median: 0.18
mean: 0.169
YPF: 0.165
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 2.437
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.39 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -13.544 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.094
YPF: 2.437
mean: 1.997
median: 1.729
low: 0.065
 Inventory Turnover 2.193
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.98 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 4.198 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 17.806
mean: 2.837
median: 2.702
YPF: 2.193
low: 0.115
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 37.438
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 15.105
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -23.233 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 317.883 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 141.82
YPF: 15.105
median: 9.147
mean: -2.741
low: -191.36
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -10.984
 CapEx To Revenue -0.221
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.501
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 19.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 21.5 B
 Invested Capital 21.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 10.9 B
 Net Working Capital -450.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.236
 Current Ratio 0.937
Current Ratio QoQ 7.7 %
Current Ratio YoY 18.581 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 11.078
median: 1.219
mean: 1.218
YPF: 0.937
low: 0.401
 Quick Ratio 0.734
Quick Ratio QoQ 8.544 %
Quick Ratio YoY 22.606 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 7.281
mean: 0.943
median: 0.87
YPF: 0.734
low: 0.358
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 6.559
 Cost Of Debt 1.403 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.661
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 28.686 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 245.512 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 31.331
mean: 11.642
median: 7.268
YPF: 3.661
low: -51.648
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.214
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 63.37
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.122 %
 Revenue Growth 8.781 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -511.867 %
Revenue Growth YoY -380.364 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 74.257 %
YPF: 8.781 %
median: 7.819 %
mean: 7.558 %
low: -47.538 %
 Earnings Growth -158.084 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -193.345 %
Earnings Growth YoY 9.329 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 300.0 %
median: 59.184 %
mean: 50.374 %
YPF: -158.084 %
low: -279.592 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 35.505 %
Gross Margin QoQ 22.97 %
Gross Margin YoY 27.918 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 80.204 %
YPF: 35.505 %
mean: 24.95 %
median: 24.168 %
low: -31.917 %
 EBIT Margin 18.147 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 36.075 %
EBIT Margin YoY 176.884 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 91.389 %
YPF: 18.147 %
median: 15.498 %
mean: 15.195 %
low: -242.594 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 17.661 %
Return On Sales QoQ 78.737 %
Return On Sales YoY 169.469 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 91.389 %
YPF: 17.661 %
median: 14.874 %
mean: 14.797 %
low: -40.585 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 775.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 4.81 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 115.598 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -278.479 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 11.076 %
YPF: 4.81 %
median: 0.36 %
mean: 0.316 %
low: -13.55 %
 Free Cash Growth 143.711 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -54.084 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -164.614 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 379.182 %
YPF: 143.711 %
mean: -76.85 %
median: -78.149 %
low: -590.685 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.918
 Cash Flow Margin 31.054 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.8
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.351 %
Return On Assets QoQ -160.938 %
Return On Assets YoY -2601.852 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 10.33 %
YPF: 1.351 %
median: 1.324 %
mean: 1.245 %
low: -16.545 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.868 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.036
Return On Equity QoQ -158.763 %
Return On Equity YoY -2694.161 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.13
YPF: 0.036
mean: 0.036
median: 0.033
low: -0.293
 DuPont ROE 3.643 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.619 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 42.26 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 27.632 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.567 %
median: 3.05 %
mean: 2.708 %
YPF: 2.619 %
low: -20.351 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action likely reflects a mix of bullish momentum and mean-reversion pressure. Momentum indicators and moving-average positioning favor further upside attempts, but ADX below 20 limits the probability of a sustained trend; positive MRO and proximity to the upper Bollinger band raise the risk of a pullback toward structural support levels. Corporate developments—asset consolidation in the Southern Hub, the Halliburton completions agreement, and the large-scale Vaca Muerta export filing—should continue to influence volatility and directional bias over the coming six weeks.

About YPF Sociedad Anonima

YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) develops a comprehensive range of energy solutions in Argentina. The company engages in both upstream and downstream activities in the oil and gas sector. In its upstream operations, YPF explores, exploits, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The downstream segment involves refining crude oil, producing petrochemicals, and transporting and distributing refined and petrochemical products. YPF commercializes crude oil, petrochemical products, and related specialties. In addition to oil and gas, YPF manages gas and power operations, which include transporting, commercializing, and distributing natural gas. The company operates regasification terminals and processes and separates natural gas. YPF also participates in power generation, contributing to Argentina’s energy infrastructure. The company’s retail network includes service stations, and it manages refineries and terminal facilities at Argentine ports. YPF supplies a variety of products such as diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and lubricants, along with fertilizers and phytosanitary products. Established in 1977, YPF Sociedad Anonima maintains its headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and plays a key role in the nation’s energy landscape.



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