Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) Strengthens Cash Flow While Momentum Signals Near-Term Pullback

Hilton Grand Vacations shows improving cash generation and an EPS beat, yet technical momentum and an overbought reading near upper Bollinger bands suggest a short-term price consolidation risk. Valuation metrics imply mispricing relative to multiples implied by enterprise value and forward earnings.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 13.08 indicates no established trend; directional lines show DI+ at 25.24 (dip & reversal → bullish) while DI- at 22.97 (peak & reversal → bullish). Those directional signals favor upside, but low ADX limits conviction in a sustained trend.

MACD: MACD currently reads 0.46 with a dip & reversal trend, signaling returning bullish momentum; the MACD remains below its signal line (0.46 vs 0.50), so momentum has not yet registered a confirming crossover.

MRO: MRO at 15.25 with a peak & reversal indicates the price sits above the modeled target and faces potential downward pressure; this creates a counterforce to the DI+/DI- bullish signals.

RSI: RSI at 53.2 with a dip & reversal denotes neutral-to-firmer internals leaning higher, not yet in overbought territory but showing upward bias after a recent dip.

Price Versus Moving Averages & Bands: Last close $48.77 sits above the 20-day average ($46.51), 50-day ($44.30) and 200-day ($44.31), supporting a short-term bullish price bias. Price lies just above the 1x upper Bollinger band ($48.21) and below the 2x upper band ($49.90), suggesting limited immediate upside before consolidation.

Volume & Volatility: Intraday volume (1,161,203) exceeded the 10-day average (757,310) and 50-day average (794,682), reinforcing recent directional moves; 42-day beta at 1.98 signals elevated short-term sensitivity to market moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: EBIT equals $147.0M with an EBIT margin of 11.44%. That margin sits above the industry peer low (7.08%) but below the industry peer mean (21.03%) and median (28.17%). EBIT margin fell QoQ by 9.77% yet rose YoY by 84.96%, a mixed but improving year-over-year operating profitability picture.

Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS $0.99 versus an estimate of $0.59 produced an EPS surprise of 67.8%, indicating stronger-than-expected near-term earnings performance to the period reported.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow reached $128.0M and free cash flow $108.0M, producing a free-cash-flow yield of 3.01%, which sits above the industry peer mean of approximately 1.18%. Cash and short-term investments total $261.0M while the current ratio reads 3.10 and quick ratio 1.89, both consistent with ample near-term liquidity.

Leverage: Total debt stands at $7.395B with net debt $7.048B while market capitalization equals $3.585B; debt-to-assets measures 0.62 and debt-to-equity reads 6.18x, above the industry peer mean. Interest coverage near 2.01x provides limited but positive coverage of interest expense.

Top-Line & Growth Rates: Total revenue $1.285B. Revenue growth registers at -3.60% overall, with reported year-over-year revenue change at -66.00% and quarter-over-quarter at -241.88% per the provided figures; those year-over-year and sequential changes indicate material timing or comparability swings in reported revenue. YoY operating margin improved substantially (operating margin YoY +95.02%).

Efficiency & Working Capital: Asset turnover at 0.1095 sits near the industry peer mean. Cash conversion cycle stands at -154.77 days, reflecting outsized payables and negative working-capital timing versus the industry peer mean, which supports internal funding of operations but reflects the sector’s business model dynamics.

Valuation Metrics: Price-to-book equals 2.99 (below the industry peer mean of ~5.88), trailing P/E about 44.90 (below the industry peer mean), forward P/E roughly 30.83 (near the industry peer low), and enterprise multiple about 49.17. WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on these multiples combined with current free-cash-flow yield and the company’s cash generation profile.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-30
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 571.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 128.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -20.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -108.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -19.00 M
 End Period Cash Flow 552.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.3 B
 Forward Revenue 590.4 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 957.0 M
 Depreciation 71.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 71.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 328.0 M
 EBITDA 218.0 M
 EBIT 147.0 M
 Operating Income 155.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 73.0 M
 Net Interest Income -73.00 M
 Income Before Tax 74.0 M
 Tax Provision 6.0 M
 Tax Rate 8.108 %
 Net Income 66.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 68.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.59
 EPS Actual 0.99
 EPS Difference 0.40
 EPS Surprise 67.797 %
 Forward EPS 1.50
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 11.9 B
 Intangible Assets 3.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.42 B
 Total Current Assets 6.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 261.0 M
 Cash 261.0 M
 Net Receivables 205.0 M
 Inventory 2.5 B
 Long-Term Investments 818.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.3 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 2.1 B
 Net Debt 7.0 B
 Total Debt 7.4 B
 Total Liabilities 10.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.2 B
 Retained Earnings -5.00 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 14.84
 Shares Outstanding 80.656 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.93
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 3.6 B
 Enterprise Value 10.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 49.169
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 12.279 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -33.536 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 61.865
median: 56.393
mean: 52.366
HGV: 49.169
low: 18.45
 EV/R 8.342
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.971
 Asset To Liability 1.128
 Debt To Capital 0.861
 Debt To Assets 0.62
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.742 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3.862 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.841
HGV: 0.62
mean: 0.54
median: 0.519
low: 0.516
 Debt To Equity 6.178
Debt To Equity QoQ 8.345 %
Debt To Equity YoY 39.054 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 10.534
HGV: 6.178
mean: 2.498
median: 2.221
low: -5.63
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.995
Price To Book QoQ 1.771 %
Price To Book YoY 38.016 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 16.535
median: 7.689
mean: 5.882
HGV: 2.995
low: -4.431
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 44.895
Price To Earnings QoQ -13.413 %
Price To Earnings YoY -120.762 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 87.855
median: 78.13
mean: 74.369
HGV: 44.895
low: 23.86
 PE/G Ratio 3.592
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.79
Price To Sales QoQ -1.962 %
Price To Sales YoY -6.764 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 6.304
median: 6.304
mean: 5.511
HGV: 2.79
low: 1.836
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 30.833
Forward PE/G 2.467
Forward P/S 6.453
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.615
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.109
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -4.65 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.786 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.191
mean: 0.114
HGV: 0.109
median: 0.106
low: 0.101
 Receivables Turnover 6.346
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 860.695 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 11.186
median: 11.186
mean: 10.019
HGV: 6.346
low: 4.596
 Inventory Turnover 0.378
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 8.989 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -4.374 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.158
median: 8.4
mean: 8.086
HGV: 0.378
low: 0.059
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 14.38
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -154.768
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -178.573 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -154.239 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 59.837
mean: -11.217
low: -20.915
median: -20.915
HGV: -154.768
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.292
 CapEx To Revenue -0.016
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.282
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 8.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 8.5 B
 Invested Capital 8.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets -2.42 B
 Net Working Capital 4.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.125
 Current Ratio 3.104
Current Ratio QoQ -24.366 %
Current Ratio YoY -7.324 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.388
HGV: 3.104
mean: 0.402
low: 0.199
median: 0.199
 Quick Ratio 1.89
Quick Ratio QoQ -25.318 %
Quick Ratio YoY -10.567 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.671
HGV: 1.89
mean: 0.333
low: 0.175
median: 0.175
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 33.922
 Cost Of Debt 0.91 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.014
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -9.443 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 118.387 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 7.026
median: 4.511
mean: 3.581
HGV: 2.014
low: 1.649
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.632
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) -60.019
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.45 %
 Revenue Growth -3.601 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -241.883 %
Revenue Growth YoY -66.003 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 4.556 %
median: 4.556 %
mean: 1.828 %
HGV: -3.601 %
low: -6.244 %
 Earnings Growth 12.5 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -73.214 %
Earnings Growth YoY -106.597 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 28.571 %
median: 28.571 %
HGV: 12.5 %
mean: 7.833 %
low: -212.885 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 25.525 %
Gross Margin QoQ -27.607 %
Gross Margin YoY 17.211 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 92.924 %
median: 49.528 %
mean: 43.083 %
HGV: 25.525 %
low: 24.818 %
 EBIT Margin 11.44 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -9.765 %
EBIT Margin YoY 84.964 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 32.069 %
median: 28.167 %
mean: 21.028 %
HGV: 11.44 %
low: 7.08 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 12.062 %
Return On Sales QoQ -42.576 %
Return On Sales YoY 95.02 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.965 %
median: 26.101 %
mean: 19.902 %
HGV: 12.062 %
low: 7.637 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 108.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.013 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -8.558 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 1621.714 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.707 %
HGV: 3.013 %
median: 1.768 %
mean: 1.18 %
low: -6.74 %
 Free Cash Growth -13.6 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -99.578 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -84.457 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 5708.333 %
mean: 2015.206 %
median: 1050.0 %
HGV: -13.6 %
low: -3012.994 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.636
 Cash Flow Margin 102.957 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 20.045
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.562 %
Return On Assets QoQ 36.077 %
Return On Assets YoY -484.932 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.696 %
median: 2.251 %
mean: 1.607 %
HGV: 0.562 %
low: 0.227 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.494 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.055
Return On Equity QoQ 48.067 %
Return On Equity YoY -613.408 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.096
median: 0.096
mean: 0.062
HGV: 0.055
low: -0.077
 DuPont ROE 5.309 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.588 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 1.665 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 217.6 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.146 %
median: 3.947 %
mean: 3.102 %
HGV: 1.588 %
low: 0.725 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators present a two-sided near-term setup. Directional indicators and moving-average placement favor further upside, but positive MRO and price sitting at the upper Bollinger band imply vulnerability to a short-term pullback or consolidation. Elevated volume accompanying the recent move increases the chance of a defined near-term range before a directional breakout. Swing traders should monitor confirmation of MACD crossing above its signal line and ADX rising above the 20–25 range for higher-confidence trend continuation; absent those confirmations, expect limited upside and range-bound price action for the next six weeks.

About Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) develops and manages upscale timeshare resorts under the esteemed Hilton brand. Established in 1992 and headquartered in Orlando, Florida, the company crafts exceptional vacation experiences through a diverse portfolio of properties. HGV operates primarily through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. In the Real Estate Sales and Financing segment, HGV markets and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs), offers consumer financing solutions, and collaborates with third-party developers to source VOIs. This segment plays a crucial role in expanding the company’s reach and enhancing its offerings. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages a network of clubs, providing members with exclusive exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services. This segment also oversees the rental of available inventory through ownership exchanges and enriches guest experiences with amenities such as dining, retail, and spa services at its properties. Hilton Grand Vacations ensures guests enjoy memorable vacations by combining the trusted Hilton brand with innovative vacation ownership solutions, delivering unparalleled hospitality and experiences at stunning destinations worldwide.



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