Ellomay Capital Ltd. (NYSE:ELLO) Signals Near-Term Downside Amid Asset Repositioning

Governance-driven ownership changes and portfolio divestments accelerate balance-sheet scrutiny while major projects reach construction milestones. Valuation metrics sit above WMDST’s intrinsic view, producing a cautious near-term bias for the equity.

Recent News

March 4, 2026 — Controlling shareholders executed a sale of a 45.9% stake to Nofar; the transaction closed in early March and triggered governance changes. March 11, 2026 — A Schedule 13D filing reported the new block-holder position and immediate board adjustments. March 30, 2026 — The company announced a planned sale of its indirect holdings in Dorad Energy Ltd., citing an underlying Dorad valuation of NIS 4.4 billion; the notice addressed structuring and separation processes.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators present divergent signals: ADX at 25.13 signals a measurable trend strength, while DI+ (18.61, decreasing) signals bearish directional pressure and DI– (35.12, peak-and-reversal) signals a recent retreat in selling pressure that supports a short-term stabilization scenario. Together the readings imply a trend with established strength but conflicting directional forces; that mix raises the probability of range-bound action with downside bias relative to WMDST’s valuation.

MACD stands negative at -0.49 with the MACD line decreasing and sitting below the signal line (-0.31); that configuration communicates bearish momentum and reinforces near-term downside pressure on price relative to valuation.

The Momentum/Regression Oscillator registers 12.96 and shows a peak-and-reversal. Because the MRO sits positive, price currently sits above the model target and the indicator implies a higher likelihood of mean reversion downward toward the valuation anchor in the coming weeks.

RSI at 45.39 and trending down signals diminishing upside momentum without oversold conditions; RSI dynamics reinforce the MACD signal and align with a near-term bias toward lower or sideways prices rather than a breakout higher.

Price vs moving averages and bands: the close of $23.00 sits below the 50-day average ($24.82) and near the 1× lower Bollinger band ($22.92), while the 200-day average rests at $22.57. The short-term EMAs (12-day $23.72 decreasing; 26-day $24.27) indicate recent downside pressure. Convergence of price near the lower band plus the EMA/MA configuration favors consolidation with downside risk relative to the current WMDST valuation level.

Volume lacked conviction today (volume 871 vs 10-day average 26,357 and 50-day average 8,497), reducing the chance of an immediate, sustained directional move; low participation increases sensitivity to headline flow tied to the recent governance and asset-sale developments.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability shows mixed operational performance versus bottom-line losses. Total revenue equals $1,026,000 with year-over-year revenue change of -10.21% and quarter-over-quarter change of -8.13%. Operating income registers $4,409,000, producing an operating margin of 4.30% and a QoQ operating-margin expansion of 58.45%, while EBIT prints negative at -$9,768,000 and EBIT margin equals -9.52%, which sits below the industry peer mean of 4.32% and below the industry peer median of 8.77%.

Cash flow metrics highlight negative free cash flow of -$45,041,000 and a free-cash-flow yield of -12.93%, weaker than the industry peer mean free-cash-flow yield of approximately -3.62%. Operating cash flow shows an outflow of -$6,095,000 and the company reports a cash conversion ratio of 4.63%, limiting internal liquidity generation relative to capital needs.

Balance-sheet and leverage picture: total assets $843,515,000 against total debt $637,258,000 produce debt-to-assets of 75.55%, materially above the industry peer mean of 44.37% and above the peer median. Debt-to-equity runs at 453.28%, underscoring heavy leverage and a capital structure tilted toward creditors; net debt equals $513,309,000. Cash and short-term investments of $87,614,000 provide a liquidity buffer but do not offset total leverage at current scale.

Valuation multiples and operating efficiency: price-to-book sits at 2.48x while price-to-sales reads 339.56x, reflecting very low trailing revenue relative to equity value. Asset turnover stands at 0.128% and trails the industry peer mean asset turnover of 3.264%, indicating low revenue generation per asset dollar. Enterprise value measures place EV around $898.0M with an enterprise multiple deeply negative on reported earnings metrics, consistent with elevated capital intensity and current negative operating returns.

Capital allocation and investment: capital expenditures total -$38,946,000 producing a capex-to-depreciation ratio of -10.73 and capex-to-revenue of -37.96%, reflecting heavy ongoing project spending relative to near-term revenue. The company reports a strong pipeline of development projects and an advancing pumped-storage asset timed to reach operation during 2026; those investments explain negative free cash flow but also extend funding needs into the near term.

WMDST valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. High leverage, negative free cash flow, low asset turnover and an EBIT margin below the industry peer mean support a valuation premium that does not align with current operating returns; upcoming portfolio transactions and the modest cash cushion will dictate whether the gap narrows.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 49.3 M
 Operating Cash Flow -6.09 M
 Capital Expenditures -38.95 M
 Change In Working Capital -4.54 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 38.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 87.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.0 M
 Forward Revenue
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 8.7 M
 Depreciation 3.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.6 M
 Research and Development -732.00 K
 Total Operating Expenses -3.38 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit -7.65 M
 EBITDA -6.14 M
 EBIT -9.77 M
 Operating Income 4.4 M
 Interest Income -7.28 M
 Interest Expense 5.8 M
 Net Interest Income -7.57 M
 Income Before Tax -15.61 M
 Tax Provision -738.00 K
 Tax Rate 4.727 %
 Net Income -12.57 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -14.87 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 843.5 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 140.6 M
 Total Current Assets 114.2 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 87.6 M
 Cash 87.6 M
 Net Receivables 958.0 K
 Inventory 583.0 K
 Long-Term Investments 16.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 6.7 M
 Short-Term Debt 60.7 M
 Total Current Liabilities 92.0 M
 Net Debt 513.3 M
 Total Debt 637.3 M
 Total Liabilities 678.4 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 140.6 M
 Retained Earnings -13.69 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 10.20
 Shares Outstanding 13.781 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.07
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 348.4 M
 Enterprise Value 898.0 M
 Enterprise Multiple -146.331
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -432.005 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 37.42 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 360.067
median: 189.173
mean: 183.764
low: -12.079
ELLO: -146.331
 EV/R 875.278
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 6.0
 Asset To Liability 1.243
 Debt To Capital 0.819
 Debt To Assets 0.755
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.904 %
Debt To Assets YoY -1.805 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.774
ELLO: 0.755
median: 0.457
mean: 0.444
low: 0.331
 Debt To Equity 4.533
Debt To Equity QoQ 18.706 %
Debt To Equity YoY 3.191 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA ELLO: 4.533
high: 3.034
median: 1.123
mean: -9.851
low: -38.335
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.478
Price To Book QoQ 24.959 %
Price To Book YoY 45.449 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 3.876
median: 2.794
ELLO: 2.478
mean: -2.914
low: -17.333
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 339.562
Price To Sales QoQ 1421.723 %
Price To Sales YoY 1358.023 %
Price To Sales IPRWA ELLO: 339.562
high: 30.038
median: 25.753
mean: 19.906
low: 1.458
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.882
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.001
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -92.515 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -90.288 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.045
mean: 0.033
median: 0.027
low: 0.02
ELLO: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 0.32
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -91.48 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -65.416 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.397
mean: 1.936
median: 1.787
low: 1.727
ELLO: 0.32
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 285.445
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 74.12
mean: 15.6
ELLO: 0
median: -23.927
low: -24.64
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.046
 CapEx To Revenue -37.959
 CapEx To Depreciation -10.726
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 680.8 M
 Net Invested Capital 741.5 M
 Invested Capital 741.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 140.6 M
 Net Working Capital 22.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.952
 Current Ratio 1.241
Current Ratio QoQ 5.024 %
Current Ratio YoY 71.156 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.937
ELLO: 1.241
mean: 1.183
median: 0.673
low: 0.255
 Quick Ratio 1.235
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY 72.781 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.58
ELLO: 1.235
mean: 1.094
median: 1.02
low: 0.253
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -103.839
 Cost Of Debt 0.464 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -1.671
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -141.533 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -37.005 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 1.749
median: -0.55
ELLO: -1.671
mean: -3.652
low: -25.093
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.106
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 89.716
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 11.07 %
 Revenue Growth -91.94 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -813.488 %
Revenue Growth YoY -1020.505 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 57.254 %
mean: 16.9 %
median: 10.535 %
low: -13.989 %
ELLO: -91.94 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin -746.004 %
Gross Margin QoQ -3056.345 %
Gross Margin YoY 39142.714 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.308 %
median: 56.93 %
mean: 48.545 %
low: 9.146 %
ELLO: -746.004 %
 EBIT Margin -952.047 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -1006.202 %
EBIT Margin YoY 730.336 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 22.182 %
median: 8.77 %
mean: 4.32 %
low: -25.586 %
ELLO: -952.047 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 429.727 %
Return On Sales QoQ 5845.31 %
Return On Sales YoY -474.79 %
Return On Sales IPRWA ELLO: 429.727 %
high: 23.525 %
median: 21.109 %
mean: 19.484 %
low: -19.477 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -45.04 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -12.928 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 77.412 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 22.436 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 1.589 %
mean: -3.623 %
median: -5.031 %
low: -8.08 %
ELLO: -12.928 %
 Free Cash Growth 117.6 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 177.627 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -770.009 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 545.938 %
ELLO: 117.6 %
median: -60.786 %
mean: -581.737 %
low: -1963.158 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 3.583
 Cash Flow Margin -946.686 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.773
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -1.568 %
Return On Assets QoQ -215.209 %
Return On Assets YoY -7.765 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 0.508 %
median: 0.174 %
mean: -0.348 %
ELLO: -1.568 %
low: -24.295 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -1.3 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.089
Return On Equity QoQ -226.46 %
Return On Equity YoY -5.245 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 1.739
mean: 0.519
median: 0.012
low: 0.008
ELLO: -0.089
 DuPont ROE -8.858 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -1.255 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -179.936 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -14.1 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 1.382 %
median: 0.205 %
mean: -0.204 %
ELLO: -1.255 %
low: -35.133 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation with a downside bias while governance changes and the Dorad divestment process continue to unfold. Technical momentum indicators (negative MACD, declining RSI) and a positive but peaking MRO suggest retracement toward the valuation anchor; the ADX level signals trend strength that could favor a multi-session directional move if headline volume returns. Low recent volume increases the likelihood of choppy sessions and sensitivity to additional corporate announcements or revised financing activity. Monitor cash-flow developments and transaction milestones for signals that could shift the bias, but near-term probability favors range-limited action with downside pressure relative to WMDST’s over-valued assessment.

About Ellomay Capital Ltd.

Ellomay Capital Ltd. (NYSE:ELLO) advances the renewable energy sector with a focus on sustainable power solutions globally. Headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel, the company diversifies its portfolio across solar, hydroelectric, and biogas projects. In Spain, Ellomay Capital manages photovoltaic (PV) plants, including a notable 300 MW facility in Talaván, enhancing the country’s renewable energy contributions. In Israel, the company operates a dual-fuel power plant near Ashkelon and develops a 156 MW pumped storage hydro power plant at Manara Cliff. In the Netherlands, Ellomay Capital bolsters green energy production through anaerobic digestion plants, generating significant volumes of green gas. The company’s expansion into Italy and the United States includes numerous PV projects in Lazio and the Dallas metropolitan area, reflecting its dedication to global clean energy development. Established in 1987, Ellomay Capital has transitioned from its origins as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. into a key player in the renewable energy sector, supporting the shift towards a sustainable future.



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