First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) Signals Near-Term Pullback Before Value Recovery

First Merchants enters a phase of momentum pressure while fundamentals and WMDST valuation point to underlying value support. Near-term technical weakness may give way to a value-driven stabilization if fundamentals hold.

Recent News

May 19, 2026 — Board approved a quarterly common dividend raised to $0.37 per share, payable June 19 to holders of record June 5. April 16, 2026 — Board declared a quarterly cash dividend on the company’s Series A preferred shares. March 31, 2026 — First Merchants announced a strategic partnership with a consumer-facing savings platform to power personalized savings and community-giving features through its retail banking channels.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 14.3 indicates no trend strength, suggesting limited directional conviction across the near term; this weak trend strength increases sensitivity to momentum signals when they emerge.

Directional indicators present conflicting signals: DI+ declined, a bearish sign that momentum toward higher prices weakened, while DI- shows a peak-and-reverse pattern, a bullish sign linked to a recent retreat in selling pressure. Together, these readings imply a tug-of-war with sellers holding a slight short-term edge but sellers’ intensity losing momentum.

MACD registers at -0.03 and trends downward below its 0.11 signal line, signaling bearish momentum and lowering the near-term probability of a sustained rally until MACD crosses back above the signal.

MRO sits at 21.95 (positive), which indicates the current price lies above the model target and therefore carries a higher statistical tendency to correct downward toward fair-value levels; this supports the immediate risk of price pullback against the valuation signal.

RSI at 51.16 and trending down shows neutral-to-weak momentum, consistent with potential consolidation or a modest pullback rather than a sharp sell-off.

Price mechanics: closing price at $39.60 sits marginally below the 20-day average ($40.03) and above the 200-day average ($38.70). Short-term EMAs and the 12-day EMA show a decreasing trend, reinforcing near-term downside bias, while the 200-day average provides structural support just below current levels.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Reported adjusted EPS for Q1 at $1.03 beat consensus estimates of $0.97, producing an EPS surprise of approximately 6.2%; adjusted results reflect exclusion of non-core charges disclosed in the quarter. Forward EPS stands at $1.1388 with a forward PE near 34.02.

Profitability and efficiency: trailing PE reads 38.15, which falls below the industry peer mean PE of 47.69 and below the industry peer median PE of 45.37; WMDST valuation places the stock as under-valued. Price-to-book at 0.93 sits below the industry peer mean book multiple of 1.25 and below the industry peer median of 1.22, indicating the market values tangible equity conservatively relative to peers.

Return metrics remain muted: return on assets equals 0.14% and return on equity equals 1.06%, each down sharply QoQ and YoY (ROA down ~53.6% QoQ, ROE down ~54.5% QoQ), reflecting earnings compression versus capital. Net interest income of $151.3M and interest income of $248.6M sustained core revenue generation; revenue grew about 3.63% overall, with YoY revenue growth at roughly 78.72% (reflecting period-over-period changes tied to balance sheet expansion and transaction items).

Balance sheet and capital: total assets reached $21.07B at period end; debt-to-assets stands at 6.58% and debt-to-equity at 0.523, both up QoQ, consistent with recent acquisition-related funding and balance-sheet growth. Tangible book value per share registers at $42.35, while market capitalization sits near $2.456B and enterprise value near $3.842B, leaving EV/Revenue and cash-flow metrics that support the WMDST under-valued assessment.

Cash flow and shareholder returns: operating cash flow and free cash flow each roughly $58.6M; free cash flow yield equals about 2.39%, above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 1.68%. Dividend coverage sits at 1.21 and the payout ratio runs near 82.7%, indicating a sizeable portion of earnings channels to dividends while coverage remains just over one time.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued based on the combination of conservative market multiples relative to peer averages, positive adjusted EPS surprise, and positive free cash generation; however, low profitability ratios and elevated payout fraction constrain the margin for error.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-22
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 84.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 58.6 M
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital -17.39 M
 Dividends Paid -23.29 M
 Cash Flow Delta 13.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 98.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 157.1 M
 Forward Revenue 99.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 6.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 9.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 248.6 M
 Interest Expense 97.3 M
 Net Interest Income 151.3 M
 Income Before Tax 27.1 M
 Tax Provision -1.07 M
 Tax Rate 40.0 %
 Net Income 28.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 28.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.97
 EPS Actual 1.03
 EPS Difference 0.06
 EPS Surprise 6.186 %
 Forward EPS 1.14
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 21.1 B
 Intangible Assets 824.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.8 B
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 273.4 M
 Net Receivables 97.0 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 18.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 1.1 B
 Total Debt 1.4 B
 Total Liabilities 18.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.6 B
 Retained Earnings 1.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 42.35
 Shares Outstanding 62.508 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.51
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.5 B
 Enterprise Value 3.8 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 24.449
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 7.96
 Asset To Liability 1.145
 Debt To Capital 0.344
 Debt To Assets 0.066
Debt To Assets QoQ 46.111 %
Debt To Assets YoY 17.139 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.145
FRME: 0.066
median: 0.065
mean: 0.057
low: -0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.523
Debt To Equity QoQ 49.243 %
Debt To Equity YoY 16.647 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.682
median: 0.612
mean: 0.547
FRME: 0.523
low: -0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.928
Price To Book QoQ 5.055 %
Price To Book YoY -5.407 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 1.989
mean: 1.253
median: 1.216
FRME: 0.928
low: 0.287
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 38.148
Price To Earnings QoQ -1.25 %
Price To Earnings YoY -8.382 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 85.229
mean: 47.686
median: 45.368
FRME: 38.148
low: 28.296
 PE/G Ratio 7.477
 Price To Sales (P/S) 15.631
Price To Sales QoQ 24.816 %
Price To Sales YoY 10.749 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 26.967
FRME: 15.631
mean: 14.397
median: 13.314
low: 0.11
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 34.021
Forward PE/G 6.668
Forward P/S 24.732
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.008
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -13.846 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -10.092 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.016
mean: 0.01
median: 0.01
FRME: 0.008
low: 0.005
 Receivables Turnover 1.651
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -12.532 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -7.247 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.518
mean: 2.644
median: 2.475
FRME: 1.651
low: 0.805
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 55.285
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 4.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 4.0 B
 Invested Capital 4.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.8 B
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 10.011 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.209
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.827
 Dividend Rate 0.37
 Dividend Yield 0.009
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 10.762 %
 Revenue Growth 3.628 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 226.553 %
Revenue Growth YoY 78.719 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 25.765 %
mean: 4.819 %
FRME: 3.628 %
median: 0.992 %
low: -18.912 %
 Earnings Growth 5.102 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -605.149 %
Earnings Growth YoY -78.458 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 41.86 %
FRME: 5.102 %
mean: -2.33 %
median: -2.963 %
low: -43.519 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 58.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.386 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -36.254 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -12.505 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.54 %
FRME: 2.386 %
mean: 1.684 %
median: 1.587 %
low: -3.189 %
 Free Cash Growth -27.407 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 250.473 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 218.76 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 299.762 %
FRME: -27.407 %
median: -50.617 %
mean: -59.823 %
low: -368.012 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.081
 Cash Flow Margin 21.736 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.213
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.05
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.14 %
Return On Assets QoQ -53.642 %
Return On Assets YoY -53.488 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 0.612 %
median: 0.255 %
mean: 0.253 %
FRME: 0.14 %
low: 0.065 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.011
Return On Equity QoQ -54.472 %
Return On Equity YoY -55.648 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.043
median: 0.023
mean: 0.022
FRME: 0.011
low: 0.001
 DuPont ROE 1.107 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Expect choppy, range-bound action with a bias toward modest downward pressure while momentum indicators remain bearish and ADX signals no strong trend. Watch for MACD to stabilize and cross above its signal line or for the MRO to move negative; either shift would raise the probability of a trend reversal toward the WMDST valuation thesis. Volatility appears low-to-moderate; short-term support resides near the 200-day average while resistance sits around the 20-day average and the nearest model upper bands.

About First Merchants Corporation

First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ:FRME) develops a comprehensive range of financial services through its subsidiary, First Merchants Bank. Established in 1893 and headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, the company maintains a strong presence across the Midwest with numerous locations in Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. First Merchants delivers community banking services tailored to both individual and business clients, offering a variety of deposit accounts such as time, savings, and demand deposits. The company provides an extensive selection of loan products, including consumer, commercial, agri-business, and real estate mortgage loans. In addition to traditional banking services, First Merchants extends its offerings to encompass personal and corporate trust services, brokerage, and private wealth management, ensuring a comprehensive approach to financial health. To meet the evolving demands of its customers, First Merchants integrates modern banking conveniences, including electronic and mobile delivery channels. By prioritizing financial stability and personalized service, First Merchants Corporation continues to drive growth and support community development throughout the regions it serves.



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