Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI) Poised For Continued Consolidation Amid Bearish Momentum

Bilibili shows fundamental improvement and a clear valuation gap even as short-term technicals compress toward lower support. Near-term price action likely follows consolidation while fundamentals underwrite longer-term optionality.

Recent News

March 25, 2026 — Goldman Sachs reiterated its price target after an investor meeting in Shanghai. March 5–April 2026 — a series of Hong Kong Exchange filings disclosed note issuances and updates to the company’s note status. April–May 2026 — company filings show corporate actions including a completed US$200 million share repurchase program and other share/note adjustments reported to regulators.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 21.92 indicates an emerging trend strength; the directional structure shows DI+ decreasing while DI- exhibits a dip-and-reversal, creating a directional bias that favors sellers in the immediate term relative to the current valuation.

MACD sits at -0.94 with a peak-and-reversal pattern and trades below its signal line (-0.81), signaling bearish momentum that conflicts with the fundamental valuation gap and increases the probability of near-term downside pressure.

MRO reads 3.06 and remains positive, which implies price sits above the model target and therefore carries a higher likelihood of downward mean reversion relative to the present valuation.

RSI at 40.25 with a peak-and-reversal pattern reflects weakening internals without oversold conviction; price retains room to move lower before classic oversold thresholds arrive.

Price relationships reinforce the bearish technical picture: close at $20.00 sits below the 12-day EMA ($20.96 decreasing), below the 20-day average ($21.32) and well under the 50-day ($23.15) and 200-day ($26.27) averages, pointing to short-term downside pressure against a valuation that appears favorable.

Bands and cloud structure add context: price near the lower Bollinger band (1x lower ~ $20.10, 2x lower ~ $18.88) and below the Ichimoku kijun and tenkan values (Kijun $21.96, Tenkan $20.55), which frames support ~ $18.9–$20.1 and resistance near $21.3–$22.5.

Volume spike today (13.48M vs 10-day avg 4.50M and 200-day avg 2.73M) signals heavier participation on recent moves and increases the likelihood that the current directional bias resolves sooner rather than drifting sideways indefinitely.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $8,321,367,000 with YoY revenue growth of 41.05% and QoQ growth of 74.56%, supporting a narrative of accelerating top-line momentum despite near-term market skepticism.

Operating income stands at $503,883,000 and EBIT at $548,254,000, yielding an EBIT margin of 6.59%; that margin sits well below the industry peer mean of 34.03% and the industry peer median of 34.63%, indicating room for margin expansion relative to peer profitability benchmarks.

Net income totaled $513,401,000 and EPS came in at $1.31 versus an estimate of $1.16, an EPS surprise of 12.93%, which strengthens the quality of current earnings versus consensus while forward EPS implies a higher multiple ahead.

Leverage measures show total debt of $9,786,021,000 and debt/EBITDA roughly 17.85x; interest coverage reads 13.58x, reflecting low absolute cost of debt but elevated leverage on an EBITDA basis that warrants monitoring as cash deployment continues.

Liquidity and cash strength remain material: cash and short-term investments total $24,153,062,000 and operating cash flow reached $843,960,000 with a cash conversion ratio above 1.0, supporting capital returns and strategic investment without immediate liquidity strain.

Valuation multiples sit at a trailing PE of 15.07 and P/B of 0.78; forward PE near 74.85 reflects elevated expectations after the recent quarter but the WMDST valuation assessment places the stock as under-valued given cash reserves, accelerating revenue, and a modest trailing multiple.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-19
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-18
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow 844.0 M
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital -513.40 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 8.3 B
 Forward Revenue 576.9 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 5.2 B
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development 921.1 M
 Total Operating Expenses 7.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 3.1 B
 EBITDA 548.3 M
 EBIT 548.3 M
 Operating Income 503.9 M
 Interest Income 113.5 M
 Interest Expense 40.4 M
 Net Interest Income 73.1 M
 Income Before Tax 507.9 M
 Tax Provision -6.04 M
 Tax Rate 25.0 %
 Net Income 513.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 513.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.16
 EPS Actual 1.31
 EPS Difference 0.15
 EPS Surprise 12.931 %
 Forward EPS 0.34
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 41.2 B
 Intangible Assets 5.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 9.6 B
 Total Current Assets 27.6 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 24.2 B
 Cash 12.2 B
 Net Receivables 1.3 B
 Inventory 212.5 M
 Long-Term Investments 2.1 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 5.8 B
 Short-Term Debt 4.9 B
 Total Current Liabilities 20.3 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 9.8 B
 Total Liabilities 25.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 15.6 B
 Retained Earnings -26.47 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 37.55
 Shares Outstanding 414.718 M
 Revenue Per-Share 20.07
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 12.1 B
 Enterprise Value -2.24 B
 Enterprise Multiple -4.086
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -24.005 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -95.196 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 172.49
median: 80.873
mean: 76.907
BILI: -4.086
low: -131.235
 EV/R -0.269
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.643
 Asset To Liability 1.607
 Debt To Capital 0.386
 Debt To Assets 0.238
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.064 %
Debt To Assets YoY 394.508 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.935
BILI: 0.238
mean: 0.129
median: 0.1
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.628
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.403 %
Debt To Equity YoY 464.034 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.068
BILI: 0.628
mean: 0.202
median: 0.143
low: -0.935
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.779
Price To Book QoQ 4.297 %
Price To Book YoY 42.477 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 12.969
median: 9.015
mean: 8.398
BILI: 0.779
low: -3.34
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 15.073
Price To Earnings QoQ -41.147 %
Price To Earnings YoY -12.874 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 160.153
median: 109.822
mean: 99.777
BILI: 15.073
low: -47.921
 PE/G Ratio 1.388
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.457
Price To Sales QoQ 0.683 %
Price To Sales YoY 46.172 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 33.532
median: 32.888
mean: 30.681
BILI: 1.457
low: 0.004
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 74.846
Forward PE/G 6.894
Forward P/S 20.907
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.252
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.205
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.107 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -14.138 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.492
BILI: 0.205
median: 0.201
mean: 0.191
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 6.923
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.043 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 22.784 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.623
BILI: 6.923
mean: 2.158
median: 1.897
low: 0.163
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 13.182
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -90.462
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -1.44 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 97.243
mean: 0.879
median: -2.112
BILI: -90.462
low: -294.971
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.152
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 20.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 25.2 B
 Invested Capital 25.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 9.6 B
 Net Working Capital 7.2 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.188
 Current Ratio 1.355
Current Ratio QoQ -17.291 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.279 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 10.171
mean: 2.097
median: 2.005
BILI: 1.355
low: 0.114
 Quick Ratio 1.345
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY 1.812 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.727
median: 1.689
mean: 1.652
BILI: 1.345
low: 0.067
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 17.849
 Cost Of Debt 0.311 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 13.584
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 15.216 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 217.954 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 289.65
median: 132.265
mean: 110.985
BILI: 13.584
low: -107.388
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.042
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 103.643
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.092 %
 Revenue Growth 8.274 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 74.557 %
Revenue Growth YoY 41.05 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 44.631 %
mean: 11.803 %
median: 11.22 %
BILI: 8.274 %
low: -27.55 %
 Earnings Growth 10.857 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -158.355 %
Earnings Growth YoY -87.623 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 300.0 %
BILI: 10.857 %
mean: 2.099 %
median: -1.742 %
low: -143.243 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 37.028 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.987 %
Gross Margin YoY 2.71 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 100.0 %
mean: 62.916 %
median: 59.793 %
BILI: 37.028 %
low: 5.477 %
 EBIT Margin 6.589 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 1.934 %
EBIT Margin YoY 496.83 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 107.803 %
median: 34.627 %
mean: 34.027 %
BILI: 6.589 %
low: -89.445 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.055 %
Return On Sales QoQ 31.488 %
Return On Sales YoY 448.46 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 85.377 %
median: 31.568 %
mean: 31.127 %
BILI: 6.055 %
low: -89.445 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
 Free Cash Flow Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income
 Cash Flow Margin 10.142 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.644
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.266 %
Return On Assets QoQ 5.941 %
Return On Assets YoY 355.396 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 13.424 %
median: 6.089 %
mean: 5.784 %
BILI: 1.266 %
low: -16.222 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.631 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.033
Return On Equity QoQ 4.468 %
Return On Equity YoY 416.771 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.431
median: 0.083
mean: 0.082
BILI: 0.033
low: -0.443
 DuPont ROE 3.37 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.631 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 7.657 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -481.075 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 12.209 %
median: 7.518 %
mean: 7.075 %
BILI: 1.631 %
low: -22.288 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect consolidation with a bias toward downside tests: technical momentum indicators and moving-average relationships favor sellers into nearby support clustered around $18.9–$20.1 (Bollinger lower-band and prior intraday lows). Elevated volume increases the probability that a decisive move occurs within the next six weeks rather than an extended drift.

Fundamentals reduce tail risk: robust cash reserves, positive operating leverage, and an EPS beat provide a valuation floor that should limit severe, sustained declines absent new adverse company developments. Watch for stabilization above the 12–20 day averages and declining selling momentum before a durable trend-change signal appears.

Risk profile over the next six weeks centers on macro-sensitive ad and gaming demand swings, corporate note/share actions, and any incremental guidance revisions; those items could alter the balance between the clearly improved fundamentals and the prevailing technical weakness.

WMDST values the stock as under-valued.

About Bilibili Inc.

Bilibili Inc. (NASDAQ:BILI) develops a comprehensive online entertainment platform primarily targeting China’s youth. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company curates a wide range of digital content, including professional user-generated videos that cover genres such as anime, gaming, lifestyle, and education. Bilibili enhances user engagement by integrating interactive entertainment options, including mobile games and live broadcasting services. The platform extends its offerings with value-added services like occupationally generated content and audio dramas on Maoer, as well as a diverse selection of comics available through Bilibili Comic. Additionally, Bilibili explores avenues in e-commerce and advertising, capitalizing on its robust community interaction to propel business growth. Bilibili dedicates resources to the continuous advancement of technology and content distribution, aiming to provide users with a seamless and engaging experience. By connecting young audiences through creative and community-driven content, Bilibili establishes itself as a significant player in the digital entertainment landscape.



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