YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) Pushes Export Expansion, Signals Near-Term Operational Acceleration

Strategic project agreements and favorable litigation developments position YPF to accelerate export-led activity while operational metrics show mixed near-term momentum.

Recent News

On February 12, 2026 YPF signed a binding joint-development agreement with Eni and XRG to advance the Argentina LNG project. On February 27, 2026 the company announced a record-capex plan of $6.0 billion for 2026 with a primary focus on Vaca Muerta shale development. On March 26, 2026 YPF filed its Form 20‑F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. On March 27, 2026 a U.S. appeals court overturned the prior $16+ billion judgment related to the 2012 expropriation of YPF.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 15.76 indicates no prevailing trend; directional conviction remains low, reducing the probability of a sustained breakout while the stock digests recent news-driven flows.

DI+ of 24.78 with a decreasing trend and DI‑ of 24.31 with an increasing trend together signal bearish directional pressure; directional indicators currently favor sellers over buyers for the near term.

MACD sits at 0.44 and trends decreasing, remaining below its signal line at 0.63; that configuration indicates waning bullish momentum and a bearish MACD alignment until a clear cross above the signal line occurs.

MRO reads 22.96 and trends decreasing; the positive MRO implies price sits above the computed target and faces downside potential, though the declining MRO reduces the immediacy of that pressure.

RSI at 54.66 with a decreasing trend reflects neutral-to-weak momentum consistent with recent momentum indicators; the index no longer confirms strong upside conviction.

Short-term averages show price interacting with near-term resistance: the 12‑day EMA registered a peak & reversal, the 20‑day average sits at $43.51 above the close of $42.37, and the 50‑day average at $41.52 offers nearby support. Price sits near the lower edge of the 1x Bollinger band, implying short-term downside vulnerability inside a longer sideways band.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $4,544,000,000 with reported revenue growth of -2.13% (overall) and a reported year-over-year change of -79.09% for the metric labeled revenue growth YoY; operating cash flow reached $1,738,000,000 while net income landed at -$654,000,000, reflecting continued net loss despite positive operating cash generation.

EBIT measured $606,000,000 and EBITDA $1,380,000,000, producing an EBIT margin of 13.34%, roughly in line with the industry peer mean of 13.41%; the EBIT margin improved 3.89% quarter-over-quarter but shows a reported year-over-year change of -324.97% for the supplied YoY figure.

EPS came in at $0.97 versus an estimate of $0.88, an EPS surprise of 10.23%, while forward EPS stands at $1.3976 with a forward P/E of 25.55 reflecting consensus forward earnings power versus a trailing negative P/E of -21.75 driven by the net loss.

Leverage metrics remain elevated: total debt of $11,152,000,000 and net debt of $9,648,000,000 produce debt-to-equity of 1.03x and debt-to-EBITDA of 8.08x; the interest coverage ratio sits at 2.85x, below the industry peer mean of 5.77x, indicating tighter coverage of interest obligations compared with peers.

Liquidity shows mixed signals: cash plus short-term investments total $1,195,000,000, current ratio equals 0.87 and quick ratio 0.676, both below the industry peer means; however operating cash flow and free cash flow of $318,000,000 provide active cash generation—free cash flow yield at 2.23% exceeds the industry peer mean of 1.48%.

Valuation context: enterprise value stands at $24.209 billion vs market cap of $14.252 billion, yielding an enterprise multiple of 17.54 and an EV/revenue near 5.33. WMDST values the stock as under-valued; the valuation reflects positive cash generation, project optionality from Argentina LNG and Vaca Muerta, and legal risk reduction from the recent appellate decision, balanced against elevated leverage and a current net loss.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-08-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 799.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 1.7 B
 Capital Expenditures -1.42 B
 Change In Working Capital -88.00 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 134.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 933.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.5 B
 Forward Revenue -952.60 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.2 B
 Depreciation 757.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 774.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.1 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.3 B
 EBITDA 1.4 B
 EBIT 606.0 M
 Operating Income 449.0 M
 Interest Income 25.0 M
 Interest Expense 213.0 M
 Net Interest Income -249.00 M
 Income Before Tax 393.0 M
 Tax Provision 1.0 B
 Tax Rate 35.0 %
 Net Income -654.00 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -649.00 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.88
 EPS Actual 0.97
 EPS Difference 0.09
 EPS Surprise 10.227 %
 Forward EPS 1.40
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 29.4 B
 Intangible Assets 432.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 10.4 B
 Total Current Assets 6.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.2 B
 Cash 933.0 M
 Net Receivables 2.2 B
 Inventory 1.4 B
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.2 B
 Short-Term Debt 2.4 B
 Total Current Liabilities 7.4 B
 Net Debt 9.6 B
 Total Debt 11.2 B
 Total Liabilities 18.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 10.8 B
 Retained Earnings -756.00 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 27.56
 Shares Outstanding 392.411 M
 Revenue Per-Share 11.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 14.3 B
 Enterprise Value 24.2 B
 Enterprise Multiple 17.542
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -52.498 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -127.534 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 61.169
median: 31.753
mean: 24.419
YPF: 17.542
low: -72.641
 EV/R 5.328
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.722
 Asset To Liability 1.6
 Debt To Capital 0.508
 Debt To Assets 0.379
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.308 %
Debt To Assets YoY 493.483 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.65
YPF: 0.379
mean: 0.235
median: 0.206
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 1.031
Debt To Equity QoQ 4.668 %
Debt To Equity YoY 540.534 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.421
YPF: 1.031
mean: 0.761
median: 0.493
low: 0.008
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.318
Price To Book QoQ 27.471 %
Price To Book YoY 6.542 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 4.744
median: 1.82
mean: 1.574
YPF: 1.318
low: -1.67
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -21.747
Price To Earnings QoQ -55.022 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.091 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 140.369
mean: 64.498
median: 59.98
YPF: -21.747
low: -120.105
 PE/G Ratio -0.128
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.136
Price To Sales QoQ 23.509 %
Price To Sales YoY 3.514 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.166
mean: 6.504
median: 6.404
YPF: 3.136
low: -2.28
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 25.55
Forward PE/G 0.151
Forward P/S -15.634
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -0.787
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.154
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -2.839 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -5.868 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.548
median: 0.17
mean: 0.158
YPF: 0.154
low: -0.206
 Receivables Turnover 2.208
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.524 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -58.574 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.614
mean: 2.242
YPF: 2.208
median: 2.011
low: 0.195
 Inventory Turnover 2.172
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.476 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -5.768 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 18.206
mean: 2.855
median: 2.393
YPF: 2.172
low: 0.238
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 41.328
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 19.677
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 90.205 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -243.824 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 120.172
YPF: 19.677
median: 8.094
mean: 3.499
low: -122.473
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -4.704
 CapEx To Revenue -0.312
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.876
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 19.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 21.4 B
 Invested Capital 21.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 10.4 B
 Net Working Capital -966.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.161
 Current Ratio 0.87
Current Ratio QoQ 16.505 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.144 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.027
mean: 1.268
median: 1.263
YPF: 0.87
low: 0.33
 Quick Ratio 0.676
Quick Ratio QoQ 24.441 %
Quick Ratio YoY 11.745 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 4.979
mean: 0.991
median: 0.984
YPF: 0.676
low: 0.398
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 8.081
 Cost Of Debt 1.533 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.845
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 22.682 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -329.018 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 28.951
mean: 5.769
median: 3.669
YPF: 2.845
low: -29.945
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.027
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 62.561
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.44 %
 Revenue Growth -2.132 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -5058.14 %
Revenue Growth YoY -79.086 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 53.032 %
mean: -2.081 %
YPF: -2.132 %
median: -3.422 %
low: -63.186 %
 Earnings Growth 169.355 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -129.355 %
Earnings Growth YoY -241.444 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 462.5 %
YPF: 169.355 %
mean: -3.246 %
median: -25.676 %
low: -194.231 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 28.873 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.252 %
Gross Margin YoY 37.21 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 69.391 %
YPF: 28.873 %
mean: 22.501 %
median: 19.958 %
low: -22.31 %
 EBIT Margin 13.336 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 3.887 %
EBIT Margin YoY -324.966 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 95.267 %
mean: 13.413 %
YPF: 13.336 %
median: 10.833 %
low: -104.008 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.881 %
Return On Sales QoQ -17.638 %
Return On Sales YoY -266.684 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 95.267 %
mean: 11.543 %
YPF: 9.881 %
median: 7.5 %
low: -56.401 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 318.0 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.231 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -78.527 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -100.194 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.376 %
YPF: 2.231 %
mean: 1.48 %
median: 1.02 %
low: -9.877 %
 Free Cash Growth 312.987 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -135.757 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -256.73 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA YPF: 312.987 %
high: 241.448 %
median: -13.727 %
mean: -16.354 %
low: -255.102 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.486
 Cash Flow Margin -4.423 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.307
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -2.217 %
Return On Assets QoQ 215.363 %
Return On Assets YoY 122.367 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.669 %
median: 1.04 %
mean: 0.863 %
YPF: -2.217 %
low: -7.748 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.755 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.06
Return On Equity QoQ 234.884 %
Return On Equity YoY 142.989 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.14
median: 0.025
mean: 0.015
YPF: -0.06
low: -0.197
 DuPont ROE -5.885 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.841 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -49.575 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.696 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.758 %
median: 2.236 %
mean: 2.015 %
YPF: 1.841 %
low: -11.925 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a news-sensitive, range-biased market environment. Near-term technicals favor modest downside or consolidation unless momentum indicators reassert strength (MACD rising back above its signal line and DI+ stabilizing). Project execution updates on Argentina LNG and Vaca Muerta or further legal clarity should drive episodic upside; absent such catalysts, elevated leverage and neutral ADX suggest limited sustained rallies. Monitor operating cash flow cadence and any updates to capex funding as the primary fundamental drivers over the next six weeks.

About YPF Sociedad Anonima

YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) develops a comprehensive range of energy solutions in Argentina. The company engages in both upstream and downstream activities in the oil and gas sector. In its upstream operations, YPF explores, exploits, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The downstream segment involves refining crude oil, producing petrochemicals, and transporting and distributing refined and petrochemical products. YPF commercializes crude oil, petrochemical products, and related specialties. In addition to oil and gas, YPF manages gas and power operations, which include transporting, commercializing, and distributing natural gas. The company operates regasification terminals and processes and separates natural gas. YPF also participates in power generation, contributing to Argentina’s energy infrastructure. The company’s retail network includes service stations, and it manages refineries and terminal facilities at Argentine ports. YPF supplies a variety of products such as diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and lubricants, along with fertilizers and phytosanitary products. Established in 1977, YPF Sociedad Anonima maintains its headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and plays a key role in the nation’s energy landscape.



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