Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) Signals Near-Term Downside Pressure Before Rebound

Rocky Brands shows deteriorating short-term momentum against a fair-valued fundamental backdrop; technicals point to near-term weakness while forward earnings and management actions support a recovery later in the year.

Recent News

Feb. 24, 2026 — Board approved a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $7.5 million of common stock. March 2 / March 16, 2026 — Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.155 per share, paid March 16 to shareholders of record on March 2. May 7, 2026 — A law firm announced an investigation into potential claims on behalf of Rocky Brands investors.

Technical Analysis

ADX (25.04) indicates a strong trend; strength supports a directional move rather than a choppy range in the coming weeks, which favors momentum-driven price action tied to the indicators below.

DI+ decreasing — DI+ shows declining directional strength, which aligns with a weakening bullish component and tilts short-term price pressure toward sellers relative to the company’s valuation.

DI- increasing — DI- growth signals rising downside directional pressure, reinforcing the immediate bias implied by the ADX reading and heightening the probability of further short-term weakness.

MACD negative and decreasing (MACD -0.84; signal -0.05) — momentum remains bearish and the MACD trend declining suggests selling momentum has not yet exhausted; absence of a MACD crossover above the signal line removes a near-term bullish trigger.

MRO positive at 8.2 — price sits above the model target, which typically implies downward pressure toward the target; this technical overextension complements the MACD and DI signals for a near-term corrective phase.

RSI 50.67 decreasing — RSI near neutral but moving lower, indicating momentum shifting away from buy-side conviction while not yet in oversold territory; this leaves room for further downside before a technical reversal signal emerges.

Price vs. moving averages and bands — last close $36.23 sits below short-term averages (12-day EMA $38.84, 26-day EMA $39.95, 20-day average $40.48, 50-day average $41.57) while remaining above the 200-day average $32.55. Price trades marginally below the 1x lower Bollinger band ($36.48), which signals proximity to short-term support but does not negate the dominant bearish momentum.

Volatility & volume context — 42-day volatility 3% and 52-week volatility 4% reflect moderate stability; current volume (~38,718) sits below recent averages, implying limited conviction behind the latest moves and increasing the importance of indicator-driven signals for near-term direction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings and guidance context — Quarter ended March 31, 2026; reported April 28, 2026. Reported EPS $0.24 versus an estimate of $0.27, an EPS surprise of -11.11%. Forward EPS stands at $1.0225, producing a forward P/E of 36.26x.

Profitability and growth — Reported earnings growth shows a QoQ increase of 7.52% and a YoY earnings growth of 92.65% (as labeled); headline earnings growth figure reads -74.47% in another provided measure. Revenue growth reads 0.0% overall with QoQ and YoY values shown as -100% in the supplied fields; treat the revenue stance as flat to soft for the most recent period given those labels. Cash flow margins and cash-flow-to-earnings read 0.0% in the supplied metrics.

Valuation metrics — Trailing P/E 164.06x sits above the industry peer mean of 133.66x and below the industry peer high of 169.78x, indicating a relatively elevated trailing multiple versus peers. Forward P/E 36.26x trades below the industry peer mean forward P/E of 109.32x, implying market expectations for improved near-term earnings relative to trailing outcomes. PEG ratio sits at -2.20 while the industry peer mean PEG stands near -3.76; negative PEG reflects current earnings dynamics and growth expectations embedded in the valuation.

Balance-sheet and capital deployment — Invested capital $124,118,000 and cost of debt ~1.84%. Management authorized a $7.5 million share repurchase program and maintained a quarterly cash dividend ($0.155 per share paid in March), signaling continued capital returns alongside reinvestment in brands and channels.

WMDST valuation — The current valuation as determined by WMDST: fair-valued. Forward earnings and management capital actions support a constructive medium-term case even as short-term revenue and margin dynamics complicate the near-term earnings trajectory.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-03-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-04-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-07-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow —
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INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue —
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COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue —
 Depreciation —
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PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit —
 EBITDA —
 EBIT —
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 Interest Income —
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 Net Interest Income —
 Income Before Tax —
 Tax Provision —
 Tax Rate —
 Net Income —
 Net Income From Continuing Operations —
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate $ 0.27
 EPS Actual $ 0.24
 EPS Difference $ -0.03
 EPS Surprise -11.111 %
 Forward EPS $ 1.02
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets —
 Intangible Assets —
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 Cash and Short-Term Investments —
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 Net Receivables —
 Inventory —
 Long-Term Investments —
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable —
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EQUITY
 Total Equity —
 Retained Earnings —
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share —
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 Revenue Per-Share —
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization —
 Enterprise Value —
 Enterprise Multiple —
Enterprise Multiple QoQ —
Enterprise Multiple YoY —
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA —
 EV/R —
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity —
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Debt To Assets QoQ —
Debt To Assets YoY —
Debt To Assets IPRWA —
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Debt To Equity IPRWA —
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) —
Price To Book QoQ —
Price To Book YoY —
Price To Book IPRWA —
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 164.061
Price To Earnings QoQ 388.774 %
Price To Earnings YoY 572.666 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 169.783
RCKY: 164.061
mean: 133.663
median: 99.511
low: 14.466
 PE/G Ratio -2.203
 Price To Sales (P/S) —
Price To Sales QoQ —
Price To Sales YoY —
Price To Sales IPRWA —
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 36.263
Forward PE/G -0.487
Forward P/S —
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage —
ASSET & SALES
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Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ —
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY —
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
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Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ —
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Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ —
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Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA —
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) —
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY —
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 217.092
mean: 104.952
median: 98.132
low: 86.365
RCKY: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio —
 CapEx To Revenue —
 CapEx To Depreciation —
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital —
 Net Invested Capital —
 Invested Capital $ 124.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets —
 Net Working Capital —
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio —
 Current Ratio —
Current Ratio QoQ —
Current Ratio YoY —
Current Ratio IPRWA —
 Quick Ratio —
Quick Ratio QoQ —
Quick Ratio YoY —
Quick Ratio IPRWA —
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA —
 Cost Of Debt 1.844 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio —
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ —
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY —
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA —
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio —
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) —
DIVIDENDS
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 Dividend Yield —
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate —
 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 41.891 %
mean: 0.491 %
RCKY: 0.0 %
median: -9.238 %
low: -21.965 %
 Earnings Growth -74.468 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 752.232 %
Earnings Growth YoY 92.648 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 93.436 %
mean: -8.485 %
median: -62.428 %
RCKY: -74.468 %
low: -130.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin —
Gross Margin QoQ —
Gross Margin YoY —
Gross Margin IPRWA —
 EBIT Margin —
EBIT Margin QoQ —
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EBIT Margin IPRWA —
 Return On Sales (ROS) —
Return On Sales QoQ —
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Return On Sales IPRWA —
CASH FLOW
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Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ —
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY —
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA —
 Free Cash Growth —
Free Cash Growth QoQ —
Free Cash Growth YoY —
Free Cash Growth IPRWA —
 Free Cash To Net Income —
 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added —
 Return On Assets (ROA) —
Return On Assets QoQ —
Return On Assets YoY —
Return On Assets IPRWA —
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) —
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 DuPont ROE —
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) —
Return On Invested Capital QoQ —
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Return On Invested Capital IPRWA —

Six-Week Outlook

Technical signals favor a near-term downside bias: directional indicators (DI- increasing, DI+ decreasing), a negative and falling MACD, and an MRO reading that implies the price sits above the model target. Expect price to test short-term support near the lower Bollinger threshold and the 200-day average if selling intensifies. Watch for a stabilizing RSI and a MACD trend shift (flattening then rising) as confirmation that momentum has turned. Fundamental anchors — forward EPS and management actions including the repurchase program and dividend — provide a backdrop for recovery once technical momentum reverses; however, the immediate six-week structure remains weighted toward corrective action rather than expansion.

About Rocky Brands, Inc.

Rocky Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCKY) designs, manufactures, and markets a diverse range of footwear and apparel, catering to various consumer needs across the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three primary segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Contract Manufacturing. The Wholesale segment distributes products through sporting goods stores, outdoor retailers, independent shoe retailers, and other specialty and mass merchant outlets. The Retail segment reaches consumers directly through its branded websites, including rockyboots.com, georgiaboot.com, durangoboot.com, and several others, as well as through third-party marketplaces and Rocky Outdoor Gear Stores. The Contract Manufacturing segment handles private label sales and custom manufacturing for clients, including the U.S. Military. Rocky Brands serves a wide array of customers, from industrial and construction workers to hospitality staff, farmers, ranchers, and outdoor enthusiasts. The company markets its products under several well-known brand names, such as Rocky, Georgia Boot, Durango, Lehigh, Muck, XTRATUF, Servus, Ranger, and Michelin. Founded in 1932 and headquartered in Nelsonville, Ohio, Rocky Brands continues to deliver quality and durable products to its diverse clientele.



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