Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) Poised For Modest Upside Despite Overvaluation

Momentum indicators show a nascent bullish pulse while fundamentals highlight leverage and cash-flow stress; near-term price action likely reflects technical support against a stretched valuation.

Recent News

On April 23, 2026 the company’s Board declared a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per common unit, payable May 12, 2026 to holders of record as of May 5, 2026. On April 22, 2026 the CEO stated that U.S. propane demand remained stable amid the Iran conflict, noting increased market volatility but no change to core pricing strategy.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 23.73 signals an emerging trend; DI+ increasing and DI- decreasing together indicate directional pressure favoring buyers, supporting near-term upside potential against the current valuation.

MACD: MACD sits at -0.06 and trends increasing while trading above its signal line (-0.16), which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover and supports further short-term rallies.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -27.85 indicates price below the WMDST target and implies upward pressure toward target levels, reinforcing the constructive momentum signal from MACD.

RSI: RSI at 50.5 with a dip-and-reversal indicates momentum stabilization and a resumption of buying interest from neutral levels, consistent with other momentum indicators.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Last close $20.00 sits near the 50-day average ($20.01) and above the 200-day average ($18.99); short-term EMA behavior (12-day EMA dip-and-reversal) confirms the shift toward positive short-term momentum while Bollinger bands remain narrow, implying contained volatility for swing trades.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings & Cash Flow: Q1 reported EPS $0.70 versus estimate $0.75, an EPS surprise ratio of -6.67%, and net income $45,780,000. Adjusted EBITDA $82,631,000 and operating income $67,651,000 show operating strength, but free cash flow at -$67,471,000 and operating cash flow at -$47,666,000 indicate negative cash conversion over the period.

Margins & Profitability: EBIT margin 17.76% and operating margin 18.27% both improved YoY (EBIT margin YoY +67.415%; operating margin YoY +72.214%) yet sit below the industry peer mean for EBIT margin; gross margin equals 64.675%, a clear source of operating leverage that produced the reported earnings gains.

Leverage & Coverage: Total debt $1,434,945,000 produces debt-to-EBITDA of 17.37x and debt-to-equity of 2.29x; interest coverage ratio 3.33x remains below the peer mean. These metrics show material leverage pressure despite improved EBITDA, and net debt $1,321,221,000 contrasts with market capitalization $1,266,163,290.

Liquidity & Working Capital: Current ratio 0.866 and quick ratio 0.612 signal constrained near-term liquidity; cash and short-term investments $1,284,000 and cash ratio 0.471% reflect low immediate reserves. Cash conversion cycle 55.12 days increased slightly YoY, while change in working capital shows a large negative movement ($115,387,000), weighing on operating cash flow.

Returns & Growth: Return on equity 7.31% and return on assets 1.95% improved YoY, and revenue totaled $370,386,000 with revenue growth figures showing mixed periodic signals (overall revenue growth metrics vary by period). Dividend/distribution metrics: dividend rate $0.32263 and dividend yield 1.69% with distribution coverage ratio 2.14x provide numerical support for the declared payout but do not address sustainability beyond the coverage figure.

Valuation: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Price multiples show P/E 27.27 and price-to-book 2.02 with an enterprise multiple 32.67; those multiples sit below some peer averages but the WMDST valuation judgment reflects the combination of elevated leverage, negative free cash flow, and limited liquidity relative to capital structure.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 11.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow -47.67 M
 Capital Expenditures -19.80 M
 Change In Working Capital -115.39 M
 Dividends Paid -21.40 M
 Cash Flow Delta -196.00 K
 End Period Cash Flow 11.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 370.4 M
 Forward Revenue 62.0 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 130.8 M
 Depreciation 16.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 16.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 302.7 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 239.5 M
 EBITDA 82.6 M
 EBIT 65.8 M
 Operating Income 67.7 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 19.8 M
 Net Interest Income -19.76 M
 Income Before Tax 46.0 M
 Tax Provision 231.0 K
 Tax Rate 0.502 %
 Net Income 45.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 45.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.75
 EPS Actual 0.70
 EPS Difference -0.05
 EPS Surprise -6.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.46
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.4 B
 Intangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Total Current Assets 236.0 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.3 M
 Cash 1.3 M
 Net Receivables 129.3 M
 Inventory 69.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 79.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 47.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 272.6 M
 Net Debt 1.3 B
 Total Debt 1.4 B
 Total Liabilities 1.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 626.2 M
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.44
 Shares Outstanding 66.329 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.3 B
 Enterprise Value 2.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.673
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -98.42 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -29.889 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 59.048
mean: 41.633
median: 39.238
SPH: 32.673
low: 10.34
 EV/R 7.289
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.826
 Asset To Liability 1.354
 Debt To Capital 0.696
 Debt To Assets 0.599
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.43 %
Debt To Assets YoY -0.864 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.856
SPH: 0.599
mean: 0.514
median: 0.496
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 2.291
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.146 %
Debt To Equity YoY -13.297 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.354
SPH: 2.291
mean: 1.63
median: 1.459
low: 0.0
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.022
Price To Book QoQ 0.674 %
Price To Book YoY -8.588 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.955
mean: 3.069
median: 2.341
SPH: 2.022
low: 0.415
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 27.27
Price To Earnings QoQ -180.657 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.244 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 113.155
mean: 65.022
median: 51.118
SPH: 27.27
low: 17.853
 PE/G Ratio -0.119
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.418
Price To Sales QoQ -39.892 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.843 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.081
mean: 12.434
median: 9.865
SPH: 3.418
low: 0.334
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 36.437
Forward PE/G -0.159
Forward P/S 18.415
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -6.358
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.158
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 72.189 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.522 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.21
SPH: 0.158
mean: 0.114
median: 0.096
low: 0.031
 Receivables Turnover 3.727
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 31.712 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.393 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.839
SPH: 3.727
mean: 2.77
median: 2.393
low: 0.769
 Inventory Turnover 1.83
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 64.469 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -27.884 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 11.616
mean: 5.29
median: 3.642
low: 2.914
SPH: 1.83
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 24.485
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 55.118
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.312 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 218.475 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 71.269
SPH: 55.118
mean: 20.701
median: 13.243
low: -61.052
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -10.117
 CapEx To Revenue -0.053
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.174
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Net Working Capital -36.61 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.005
 Current Ratio 0.866
Current Ratio QoQ 57.664 %
Current Ratio YoY 23.986 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.035
mean: 0.907
SPH: 0.866
median: 0.783
low: 0.531
 Quick Ratio 0.612
Quick Ratio QoQ 100.118 %
Quick Ratio YoY 18.9 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.981
mean: 0.733
median: 0.678
SPH: 0.612
low: 0.48
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 17.366
 Cost Of Debt 1.422 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.329
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -429.47 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 64.888 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 8.945
mean: 4.245
median: 3.764
SPH: 3.329
low: 1.765
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.037
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 56.803
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.139
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.467
 Dividend Rate 0.32
 Dividend Yield 0.017
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.333 %
 Revenue Growth 75.226 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -501.248 %
Revenue Growth YoY -4.698 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA SPH: 75.226 %
high: 44.343 %
mean: 11.798 %
median: 9.408 %
low: -11.584 %
 Earnings Growth -229.63 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -270.37 %
Earnings Growth YoY 60.045 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 442.105 %
mean: 21.223 %
median: 4.027 %
low: -30.921 %
SPH: -229.63 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 64.675 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.034 %
Gross Margin YoY 6.758 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 78.864 %
SPH: 64.675 %
median: 43.607 %
mean: 39.892 %
low: 5.66 %
 EBIT Margin 17.756 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -315.905 %
EBIT Margin YoY 67.415 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 61.514 %
mean: 31.034 %
median: 30.257 %
SPH: 17.756 %
low: 1.264 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.265 %
Return On Sales QoQ -330.415 %
Return On Sales YoY 72.214 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 50.481 %
median: 30.257 %
mean: 28.646 %
SPH: 18.265 %
low: 1.212 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -67.47 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -5.329 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -331.293 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 326.661 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 5.767 %
median: 1.434 %
mean: 0.929 %
SPH: -5.329 %
low: -6.341 %
 Free Cash Growth -343.569 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 422.594 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 85.728 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 380.46 %
median: -117.647 %
mean: -156.312 %
SPH: -343.569 %
low: -694.761 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.474
 Cash Flow Margin 2.726 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.221
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.951 %
Return On Assets QoQ -228.018 %
Return On Assets YoY 133.933 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.511 %
mean: 2.033 %
SPH: 1.951 %
median: 1.466 %
low: 0.664 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.098 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.073
Return On Equity QoQ -224.549 %
Return On Equity YoY 105.25 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.091
SPH: 0.073
median: 0.055
mean: 0.05
low: 0.019
 DuPont ROE 7.476 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.358 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -542.424 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 25.345 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.82 %
SPH: 3.358 %
mean: 2.832 %
median: 2.504 %
low: 1.318 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum readings point to modest upside potential with limited volatility: expect price to trade in a constrained range near $19–$21 while momentum indicators attempt a measured advance. Leverage and negative free cash flow create downside sensitivity to any weakening in operating cash, so rallies may remain capped absent clear cash-flow improvement. For swing-oriented timeframes, monitor momentum cross confirmations and liquidity signals; a sustained technical breakout above recent short-term averages could produce further short-lived strength, while a reacceleration of cash-flow weakness would likely restore selling pressure.

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) distributes and markets propane, renewable propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels across the United States. Through its Propane segment, the company supplies propane for residential uses such as space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying, as well as for industrial applications including motor fuel for vehicles and equipment. The Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment delivers fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers, primarily for heating purposes. In the Natural Gas and Electricity segment, Suburban Propane markets natural gas and electricity to customers in deregulated markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The All Other segment provides sales, installation, and maintenance services for home comfort equipment, including heating systems, air cleaners, and space heaters. Serving a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. maintains a strong presence on the east and west coasts, as well as in the Midwest and Alaska. Founded in 1945, the company is headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey.



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