Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) Valuation Signals Near-Term Downside Pressure

Operational margins and distribution stability coexist with a capital structure that constrains upside; near-term technicals show nascent bullish momentum but valuation and leverage limit the scope for a sustained rally.

Recent News

Apr 23, 2026 — Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.325 per Common Unit for the three months ended March 28, 2026, payable in May. Apr 22, 2026 — the company issued a press release scheduling its Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results conference call for early May.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a strengthening trend: ADX at 29.47 signals a strong underlying trend in place while DI+ (11.22) registers a dip & reversal and DI- (24.78) shows a peak & reversal, a configuration that reads as bullish directional pressure into the near term.

MACD shows a dip & reversal, which signals bullish momentum development; however MACD remains negative at -0.26 and sits below its signal line (-0.22), so momentum requires confirmation from a cross above the signal to become unambiguous.

MRO at -33.78 indicates the price trades below the WMDST target and therefore contains upside reversion potential; the MRO trend is decreasing, which magnifies the magnitude of that negative deviation from target.

RSI sits at 48.12 with a dip & reversal, placing momentum near the midpoint while tilting toward recovery from the recent pullback; that midpoint level implies limited immediate momentum tailwind.

Price sits at $19.30, below the 50-day average ($20.07) and above the 200-day average ($18.94). Short-term moving averages and the super trend upper band ($19.79) act as resistance while the 200-day average and the lower Bollinger band (~$18.88) provide visible support—this structure supports a range-bound profile with constrained upside unless momentum indicators confirm a stronger advance. Volume measures (10-day avg ~101k vs recent volume ~64.5k) show below-average activity, suggesting limited near-term conviction behind directional moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Reported earnings and cash flow: net income for the recent period totaled $45.78M and diluted EPS registered at $0.70 versus an estimate of $0.75, an EPS miss of $0.05 (a -6.67% surprise). Operating cash flow came in negative at $-47.67M and free cash flow registered $-67.47M, producing a free cash flow yield of -5.33%.

Profitability sits on a solid gross margin of 64.68% and an EBIT margin of 17.76%. The EBIT margin improved year-over-year by roughly +67.42% while declining sequentially by about -3.16% quarter-over-quarter, indicating both meaningful YoY margin expansion and some recent compression versus the prior quarter. When placed versus the industry peer mean EBIT margin (31.035%), Suburban Propane’s 17.76% margin ranks below the industry peer mean and median.

Valuation multiples present a mixed signal: trailing P/E stands at 27.27 with forward P/E near 36.44; trailing price-to-book at 2.02 sits below the industry peer mean (3.07) while the enterprise multiple (EV/EBIT) registers at 32.67—above the peer mean. PEG metrics show negative forward growth assumptions (PEG ~ -0.12), and forward EPS ($0.4625) compresses implied near-term earnings power versus trailing results. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of multiples, growth, and capital structure.

Leverage and coverage: total debt totaled about $1.435B with net debt around $1.321B, producing a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 17.4 and debt-to-equity roughly 2.29. Interest coverage runs about 3.33, below the industry peer mean interest coverage. The high debt-to-EBITDA ratio and modest interest coverage create a higher sensitivity of distributable cash to interest rate or working capital swings; working capital moved by -$115.39M in the period, which contributed to negative operating cash flow.

Liquidity metrics show a current ratio of 0.866 and a cash ratio of 0.47%; quick ratio registers at 0.612. Receivables turnover (3.73) and days inventory outstanding (~87.4 days) highlight working-capital intensity tied to fuel inventory and receivables cycles. Dividend metrics show a quarterly distribution of $0.325 (annualized $1.30), a dividend payout ratio near 46.7% and dividend coverage around 2.14—coverage exceeds one but cash conversion and free cash flow remain weak.

Revenue trends: revenue totaled $370.39M with revenue per share at $5.58; revenue growth on a year-over-year basis registered about -4.70% while sequential metrics show headwinds. Asset turnover remains low (0.158) but improved sequentially; operating leverage and cost-of-revenue dynamics sustain high gross margins despite top-line pressure.

Valuation summary: strong gross margins and positive YoY operating-margin expansion contrast with high leverage, negative free cash flow, and lower-than-peer EBIT margin. Those factors underpin WMDST’s assessment that the current valuation carries over-valued characteristics relative to fundamental resilience and balance-sheet risk.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 11.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow -47.67 M
 Capital Expenditures -19.80 M
 Change In Working Capital -115.39 M
 Dividends Paid -21.40 M
 Cash Flow Delta -196.00 K
 End Period Cash Flow 11.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 370.4 M
 Forward Revenue 62.0 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 130.8 M
 Depreciation 16.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 16.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 302.7 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 239.5 M
 EBITDA 82.6 M
 EBIT 65.8 M
 Operating Income 67.7 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 19.8 M
 Net Interest Income -19.76 M
 Income Before Tax 46.0 M
 Tax Provision 231.0 K
 Tax Rate 0.502 %
 Net Income 45.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 45.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.75
 EPS Actual 0.70
 EPS Difference -0.05
 EPS Surprise -6.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.46
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.4 B
 Intangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Total Current Assets 236.0 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.3 M
 Cash 1.3 M
 Net Receivables 129.3 M
 Inventory 69.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 79.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 47.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 272.6 M
 Net Debt 1.3 B
 Total Debt 1.4 B
 Total Liabilities 1.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 626.2 M
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.44
 Shares Outstanding 66.329 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.3 B
 Enterprise Value 2.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.673
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -98.42 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -29.889 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 59.048
mean: 41.654
median: 39.238
SPH: 32.673
low: 10.34
 EV/R 7.289
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.826
 Asset To Liability 1.354
 Debt To Capital 0.696
 Debt To Assets 0.599
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.43 %
Debt To Assets YoY -0.864 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.856
SPH: 0.599
mean: 0.514
median: 0.496
low: 0.268
 Debt To Equity 2.291
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.146 %
Debt To Equity YoY -13.297 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.354
SPH: 2.291
mean: 1.631
median: 1.459
low: 0.379
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.022
Price To Book QoQ 0.674 %
Price To Book YoY -8.588 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.955
mean: 3.071
median: 2.341
SPH: 2.022
low: 1.712
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 27.27
Price To Earnings QoQ -180.657 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.244 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 113.155
mean: 65.051
median: 49.431
SPH: 27.27
low: 17.853
 PE/G Ratio -0.119
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.418
Price To Sales QoQ -39.892 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.843 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.081
mean: 12.438
median: 9.865
SPH: 3.418
low: 0.334
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 36.437
Forward PE/G -0.159
Forward P/S 18.415
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -6.358
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.158
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 72.189 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.522 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.21
SPH: 0.158
mean: 0.114
median: 0.096
low: 0.031
 Receivables Turnover 3.727
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 31.712 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.393 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 8.839
SPH: 3.727
mean: 2.769
median: 2.393
low: 0.769
 Inventory Turnover 1.83
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 64.469 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -27.884 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 11.616
mean: 5.287
median: 3.642
low: 2.914
SPH: 1.83
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 24.485
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 55.118
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.312 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 218.475 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 71.269
SPH: 55.118
median: 13.243
mean: 1.851
low: -82.244
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -10.117
 CapEx To Revenue -0.053
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.174
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Net Working Capital -36.61 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.005
 Current Ratio 0.866
Current Ratio QoQ 57.664 %
Current Ratio YoY 23.986 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.43
mean: 0.891
SPH: 0.866
median: 0.783
low: 0.531
 Quick Ratio 0.612
Quick Ratio QoQ 100.118 %
Quick Ratio YoY 18.9 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.176
mean: 0.717
median: 0.678
SPH: 0.612
low: 0.48
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 17.366
 Cost Of Debt 1.422 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.329
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -429.47 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 64.888 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 8.945
mean: 4.245
median: 3.764
SPH: 3.329
low: 1.765
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.037
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 56.803
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.139
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.467
 Dividend Rate 0.32
 Dividend Yield 0.017
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.333 %
 Revenue Growth 75.226 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -501.248 %
Revenue Growth YoY -4.698 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA SPH: 75.226 %
high: 44.343 %
mean: 11.814 %
median: 9.408 %
low: -7.231 %
 Earnings Growth -229.63 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -270.37 %
Earnings Growth YoY 60.045 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 442.105 %
mean: 21.241 %
median: 3.774 %
low: -30.921 %
SPH: -229.63 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 64.675 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.034 %
Gross Margin YoY 6.758 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 78.864 %
SPH: 64.675 %
median: 43.607 %
mean: 39.896 %
low: 5.66 %
 EBIT Margin 17.756 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -315.905 %
EBIT Margin YoY 67.415 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 61.514 %
mean: 31.035 %
median: 30.257 %
SPH: 17.756 %
low: 1.264 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.265 %
Return On Sales QoQ -330.415 %
Return On Sales YoY 72.214 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 50.481 %
median: 30.257 %
mean: 28.648 %
SPH: 18.265 %
low: 1.212 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -67.47 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -5.329 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -331.293 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 326.661 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.487 %
median: 1.434 %
mean: 0.926 %
SPH: -5.329 %
low: -6.341 %
 Free Cash Growth -343.569 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 422.594 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 85.728 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 380.46 %
median: -117.647 %
mean: -156.426 %
SPH: -343.569 %
low: -694.761 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.474
 Cash Flow Margin 2.726 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.221
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.951 %
Return On Assets QoQ -228.018 %
Return On Assets YoY 133.933 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.511 %
mean: 2.033 %
SPH: 1.951 %
median: 1.466 %
low: 0.664 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.098 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.073
Return On Equity QoQ -224.549 %
Return On Equity YoY 105.25 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.091
SPH: 0.073
median: 0.055
mean: 0.05
low: 0.023
 DuPont ROE 7.476 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.358 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -542.424 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 25.345 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.82 %
SPH: 3.358 %
mean: 2.833 %
median: 2.504 %
low: 1.695 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical indicators point to early-stage bullish momentum (DI+/DI- configuration, MACD dip & reversal, RSI dip & reversal) while MRO signals an under-priced position relative to the WMDST target. Offsetting those near-term technicals, elevated leverage, negative free cash flow, and an over-valued assessment limit upside and increase downside sensitivity to macro shocks or commodity-price swings. Expect range-bound trading with modest upside potential but elevated risk of retrenchment if volume or coverage metrics deteriorate further; momentum confirmation above the 50-day average and a MACD cross above its signal would change the outlook toward a clearer bullish profile.

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) distributes and markets propane, renewable propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels across the United States. Through its Propane segment, the company supplies propane for residential uses such as space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying, as well as for industrial applications including motor fuel for vehicles and equipment. The Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment delivers fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers, primarily for heating purposes. In the Natural Gas and Electricity segment, Suburban Propane markets natural gas and electricity to customers in deregulated markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The All Other segment provides sales, installation, and maintenance services for home comfort equipment, including heating systems, air cleaners, and space heaters. Serving a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. maintains a strong presence on the east and west coasts, as well as in the Midwest and Alaska. Founded in 1945, the company is headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.