Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) Posts Delivery Gains; Technicals Signal Near-Term Upside

Li Auto shows accelerating deliveries and short-term bullish momentum, while valuation metrics remain stretched relative to fundamentals. Near-term price bias favors continuation of the recent uptick but broader valuation keeps upside tethered.

Recent News

March 1, 2026 and April 1, 2026 delivery updates showed recovery in retail demand: January deliveries reported roughly 27,668 units, February deliveries about 26,421 units, and March deliveries rose to 41,053 units, indicating sequential acceleration; separate coverage noted a production ramp of the i6 model amid prior supply constraints. These updates came alongside routine corporate releases on retail and service network expansion in China.

Technical Analysis

ADX/DI+/DI-: ADX at 14.48 signals no established trend, but DI+ at 36.05 increasing and DI- at 25.37 decreasing indicate directional strength favoring buyers; that combination implies short-term directional pressure that may support further price gains, even while the broader trend lacks strength.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.23 with the signal line at 0.11 and an increasing MACD_trend; MACD recently crossed above its signal line, a bullish momentum confirmation that supports the near-term upside suggested by the directional indicators.

MRO: MRO reads -17.03 (negative), which means price sits below the modeled target and thus presents upward potential; the negative MRO aligns with the expectation of mean-reversion that could fuel further short-term gains.

RSI: RSI 52.15 and increasing shows mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a continuation of the recent rally rather than signaling exhaustion.

Price Structure & Moving Averages: Close at $19.21 sits above the 20-day average ($18.09), the 50-day average ($17.90) and the 12-day EMA ($18.29) — all rising — while remaining below the 200-day average ($21.16). Price trades near the upper Bollinger band (upper 1σ $18.72, upper 2σ $19.35), suggesting momentum with limited short-term volatility. Ichimoku components (Senkou A $17.94, Senkou B $17.52) and the super trend lower support ($17.91) lie below price, providing short-term structural support for swing traders.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings & Per-Share Metrics: Latest reported EPS actual $0.01 versus estimate -$0.02, an EPS beat of $0.03, representing a 150% surprise to the estimate. Forward EPS stands at $0.22 with a forward P/E of 82.18. Current reported P/E equals $1,802.89, well above the industry peer mean of 85.88 and above the industry peer high of 172.68, reflecting extreme valuation relative to peers.

Growth Rates: Reported earnings growth shows -101.61% (earningsGrowth), with quarter-over-quarter earnings down ~36.57% and year-over-year earnings change of -515.83% as reported; revenue growth registers 0% overall with quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year revenue reductions shown as -100% in the provided metrics. Those declines highlight recent compression in core operating momentum relative to prior periods.

Profitability & Cash: Cash flow margin: 0.0% and cash flow to earnings: 0.0% per the data. Invested capital reads negative $80,786,194,000. Cost of debt registers 0.159%, indicating very low borrowing costs on reported debt. Free-cash-flow non-GAAP figures included in the company release show a swing from prior negative to positive in the most recent annual figures, consistent with delivery stabilization reports.

Valuation Multiples & Peer Comparisons: PEG ratio reported at -17.74, below the industry peer low of -2.92 and well beneath the industry peer mean of -1.70 and median of -1.45; forward PEG sits at -0.81. The forward P/E of 82.18 sits below the current trailing P/E but remains elevated versus the industry peer mean (forward peer mean 39.40, median 24.60). WMDST values the stock as over-valued given stretched trailing multiples against constrained growth metrics.

Earnings Calendar: Most recent report dated March 12, 2026; next scheduled report listed for June 11, 2026. The latest operational releases emphasize delivery recovery and production ramping rather than material margin improvement to date.

Valuation Note: The current valuation as determined by WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued, reflecting a combination of inflated multiples, compressed reported growth, and a modest recovery in deliveries that has not yet reconciled with trailing valuation.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-12
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-11
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue
 Forward Revenue
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax
 Tax Provision
 Tax Rate
 Net Income
 Net Income From Continuing Operations
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.02
 EPS Actual 0.01
 EPS Difference 0.03
 EPS Surprise 150.0 %
 Forward EPS 0.22
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash
 Net Receivables
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt
 Total Debt
 Total Liabilities
EQUITY
 Total Equity
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share
 Shares Outstanding
 Revenue Per-Share
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization
 Enterprise Value
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity
 Asset To Liability
 Debt To Capital
 Debt To Assets
Debt To Assets QoQ
Debt To Assets YoY
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity
Debt To Equity QoQ
Debt To Equity YoY
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B)
Price To Book QoQ
Price To Book YoY
Price To Book IPRWA
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 1802.891
Price To Earnings QoQ -5182.009 %
Price To Earnings YoY 22919.313 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA LI: 1802.891
high: 172.68
mean: 85.881
median: 47.288
low: -128.535
 PE/G Ratio -17.743
 Price To Sales (P/S)
Price To Sales QoQ
Price To Sales YoY
Price To Sales IPRWA
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 82.179
Forward PE/G -0.809
Forward P/S
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 278.075
mean: 26.075
median: 13.988
low: 13.061
LI: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital
 Net Invested Capital
 Invested Capital -80.79 B
 Net Tangible Assets
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 0.159 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate
 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 55.306 %
LI: 0.0 %
mean: -9.763 %
median: -11.369 %
low: -17.458 %
 Earnings Growth -101.613 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -36.569 %
Earnings Growth YoY -515.833 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 16.226 %
mean: -50.794 %
median: -71.111 %
LI: -101.613 %
low: -178.71 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
 Free Cash Flow Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income
 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA)
Return On Assets QoQ
Return On Assets YoY
Return On Assets IPRWA
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE)
Return On Equity QoQ
Return On Equity YoY
Return On Equity IPRWA
 DuPont ROE
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

For swing traders: short-term technicals favor further upside continuation as DI+ gains, a bullish MACD crossover, rising short-term EMAs, and RSI just above 50 converge with delivery momentum. Price trades above most short-term averages and near the upper Bollinger band, suggesting momentum-led moves may persist. However, the lack of a strong ADX trend reads as limited directional conviction beyond the short term, and valuation remains highly elevated relative to fundamentals. Expect price action to track delivery and production announcements and intramonth volume spikes; treat fundamental volatility as a cap on sustained breakout scope over a six-week horizon.

About Li Auto Inc.

Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles in the People’s Republic of China. The company offers a range of multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that integrate advanced technology and smart features. Li Auto Inc. manages sales and after-sales services, ensuring a seamless customer experience through both online and offline channels. The company also invests in technology development and corporate management, while acquiring manufacturing equipment to enhance production capabilities. Founded in 2015 and headquartered in Beijing, Li Auto Inc. continues to expand its footprint in the energy vehicle market, catering to the growing demand for innovative and environmentally friendly transportation solutions.



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