Celsius Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ:CELH) Signals Near-Term Momentum Rebound Despite Overvaluation

Celsius shows improving technical momentum and short-term upside potential while fundamentals and WMDST valuation classify the stock as over-valued. Market-facing catalysts in early 2026 create active volatility ahead.

Recent News

On February 26, 2026 the company released its full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter results and discussed integration progress for recent brand additions; management highlighted completion timing for the Rockstar integration in the first half of 2026. In late March/early April 2026 Celsius presented at the CAGNY conference and emphasized expanded retail distribution under its partner arrangements; coverage noted stronger shelf placement and distribution gains driving investor attention. Reports from late 2025 into 2026 also referenced increased strategic involvement by a major beverage partner and related portfolio moves.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 23.31 indicates an emerging directional trend in price strength rather than a sustained trend; directional indicators show DI+ at 20.63 with a dip & reversal, and DI- at 32.93 with a peak & reversal, both readings consistent with a short-term shift toward bullish directional momentum.

MACD stands at -2.67 with the signal at -2.75 and a MACD trend labeled dip & reversal; the MACD crossing above its signal line signals bullish momentum development and supports the near-term technical bounce hypothesis.

MRO reads -33.1 with a dip & reversal; the negative oscillator indicates the current price sits below the model target and implies upside potential back toward fair-value estimates if momentum persists.

RSI sits at 41.38 with a dip & reversal, signaling recovery from lower momentum without entering overbought territory; that level supports a tactical rebound scenario rather than an extended rally.

Price sits below the 20-day average ($35.55), the 50-day average ($43.66) and the 200-day average ($49.46), while the 12-day EMA is decreasing; this configuration indicates the shorter-term momentum is attempting to reverse within a longer-term downshift, making the stock prone to volatile mean-reversion attempts. Bollinger bands (1x) place short-term trading range roughly between $33.81 and $37.29, framing immediate support and resistance levels.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the period totals $721,628,000 with total gross profit of $341,830,000 and gross margin at 47.37%, below the industry peer mean of 57.02% and the industry peer median of 60.05%. Operating income measures $106,819,000 and operating margin equals 14.80%, below the industry peer mean operating margin of 24.87% and median of 24.21%.

EBIT stands at $35,260,000 giving an EBIT margin of 4.89%, materially below the industry peer mean of 26.96% and the industry peer median of 28.70%, and the EBIT margin declined QoQ by 150.76% and YoY by 187.75% per the reported change values.

Net income reached $24,739,000 while EPS actual of $0.26 beat the estimate of $0.19 by $0.07, an EPS surprise of 36.84%. Forward EPS sits at $0.5101 and forward PE at 92.32, while the trailing PE equals 188.69, signaling elevated market multiple levels versus typical earnings coverage.

Operating cash flow shows an outflow of -$119,438,000 and free cash flow equals -$129,966,000, with free cash flow yield at -1.03%; cash on hand totals $398,866,000, producing a cash ratio of 0.37 and a current ratio of 1.68, the latter above the industry peer mean of 1.53 and indicating short-term liquidity modestly above peer average.

Leverage measures remain moderate: total debt $669,926,000 and debt-to-assets 13.09%, below the industry peer mean of 40.44%; debt-to-equity equals 0.567, also below the industry peer mean of 1.41. Return on equity stands at 2.09%, beneath the industry peer mean ROE of 5.53%.

Efficiency metrics show asset turnover at 0.139, essentially in line with the industry peer mean of 0.140, while receivables turnover at 1.14 lags the industry peer mean of 3.06, suggesting slower collections relative to peers. Inventory turnover at 1.22 runs above its peer mean of 1.07.

WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on the combination of elevated market multiples (trailing PE 188.69; forward PE 92.32), negative free cash flow, and margins below industry peer means despite recent revenue scale and an EPS beat.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-26
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 932.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow -119.44 M
 Capital Expenditures -10.53 M
 Change In Working Capital -205.93 M
 Dividends Paid -14.31 M
 Cash Flow Delta -392.48 M
 End Period Cash Flow 540.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 721.6 M
 Forward Revenue 955.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 379.8 M
 Depreciation 8.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 8.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 614.8 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 341.8 M
 EBITDA 44.2 M
 EBIT 35.3 M
 Operating Income 106.8 M
 Interest Income 4.4 M
 Interest Expense 12.7 M
 Net Interest Income -8.30 M
 Income Before Tax 22.6 M
 Tax Provision -2.13 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income 24.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 24.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.19
 EPS Actual 0.26
 EPS Difference 0.07
 EPS Surprise 36.842 %
 Forward EPS 0.51
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 5.1 B
 Intangible Assets 2.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 632.0 M
 Total Current Assets 1.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 398.9 M
 Cash 398.9 M
 Net Receivables 755.5 M
 Inventory 337.7 M
 Long-Term Investments 43.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 137.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 1.1 B
 Net Debt 271.1 M
 Total Debt 669.9 M
 Total Liabilities 2.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.2 B
 Retained Earnings 175.9 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 4.60
 Shares Outstanding 256.906 M
 Revenue Per-Share 2.81
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 12.6 B
 Enterprise Value 12.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 291.313
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -219.518 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -186.335 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA CELH: 291.313
high: 265.738
median: 93.335
mean: 72.37
low: -37.332
 EV/R 17.841
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.333
 Asset To Liability 2.35
 Debt To Capital 0.362
 Debt To Assets 0.131
Debt To Assets QoQ -20.018 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1041.798 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.712
median: 0.434
mean: 0.404
CELH: 0.131
low: 0.023
 Debt To Equity 0.567
Debt To Equity QoQ -20.81 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1019.949 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.027
mean: 1.415
median: 1.414
CELH: 0.567
low: 0.039
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 10.668
Price To Book QoQ -13.358 %
Price To Book YoY -32.343 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 20.171
CELH: 10.668
mean: 10.315
median: 9.606
low: 0.003
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 188.688
Price To Earnings QoQ 37.913 %
Price To Earnings YoY -177.355 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA CELH: 188.688
high: 170.469
mean: 115.095
median: 71.023
low: -19.803
 PE/G Ratio -4.953
 Price To Sales (P/S) 17.465
Price To Sales QoQ -14.506 %
Price To Sales YoY -7.99 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 35.991
median: 26.14
mean: 21.014
CELH: 17.465
low: 0.006
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 92.323
Forward PE/G -2.423
Forward P/S 13.077
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 313.819
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.139
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -13.171 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -27.393 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.597
mean: 0.14
CELH: 0.139
median: 0.112
low: 0.103
 Receivables Turnover 1.137
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -21.267 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -17.996 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 4.224
median: 3.385
mean: 3.063
low: 1.241
CELH: 1.137
 Inventory Turnover 1.225
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.039 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 21.619 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.312
CELH: 1.225
mean: 1.075
median: 1.024
low: 0.136
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 80.244
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 129.963
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 29.215 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -11.799 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 448.664
CELH: 129.963
mean: -58.6
low: -107.287
median: -107.287
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.985
 CapEx To Revenue -0.015
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.178
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets 632.0 M
 Net Working Capital 732.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.37
 Current Ratio 1.679
Current Ratio QoQ -11.018 %
Current Ratio YoY -53.666 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.703
CELH: 1.679
mean: 1.527
median: 1.459
low: 0.476
 Quick Ratio 1.366
Quick Ratio QoQ -15.282 %
Quick Ratio YoY -58.163 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.151
CELH: 1.366
mean: 1.096
median: 0.708
low: 0.353
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 15.158
 Cost Of Debt 1.306 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.786
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -172.84 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -341.527 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 9.736
median: 7.872
mean: 6.935
CELH: 2.786
low: -4.465
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.207
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 30.482
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 1.729
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.578
 Dividend Rate 0.06
 Dividend Yield 0.001
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -2.774 %
 Revenue Growth -0.48 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -74.922 %
Revenue Growth YoY -101.92 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 32.962 %
CELH: -0.48 %
mean: -1.007 %
median: -5.082 %
low: -29.908 %
 Earnings Growth -38.095 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 258.103 %
Earnings Growth YoY -101.178 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 150.0 %
mean: -21.441 %
median: -35.366 %
CELH: -38.095 %
low: -99.07 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 47.369 %
Gross Margin QoQ -7.737 %
Gross Margin YoY -5.589 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 60.049 %
median: 60.049 %
mean: 57.017 %
CELH: 47.369 %
low: 6.537 %
 EBIT Margin 4.886 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -150.764 %
EBIT Margin YoY -187.751 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 32.342 %
median: 28.701 %
mean: 26.959 %
CELH: 4.886 %
low: -6.261 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 14.803 %
Return On Sales QoQ -35.614 %
Return On Sales YoY -365.858 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 31.132 %
mean: 24.87 %
median: 24.209 %
CELH: 14.803 %
low: -6.261 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -129.97 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.031 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -147.512 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -192.549 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 28.381 %
mean: 3.295 %
median: 0.93 %
CELH: -1.031 %
low: -8.674 %
 Free Cash Growth -140.43 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -117.413 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -119.819 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 97.817 %
mean: -28.647 %
median: -37.029 %
CELH: -140.43 %
low: -269.506 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -5.253
 Cash Flow Margin -30.929 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -9.022
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.476 %
Return On Assets QoQ -135.338 %
Return On Assets YoY -143.75 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.611 %
mean: 2.535 %
median: 2.154 %
CELH: 0.476 %
low: -10.305 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.873 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ -141.294 %
Return On Equity YoY -144.364 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.089
median: 0.071
mean: 0.055
CELH: 0.021
low: -0.187
 DuPont ROE 2.075 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.505 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -164.234 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -10.417 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.86 %
median: 3.416 %
mean: 3.411 %
CELH: 1.505 %
low: -0.962 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price action should respond to integration updates and distribution newsflow; improving momentum indicators (MACD crossing, MRO negative but reversing, RSI recovering) support a tactical bounce toward the 20-day band and the lower Bollinger boundary, while the 50-day and 200-day averages remain overhead supply that could cap advances. Watch volatility and volume relative to the 10‑ and 50‑day averages for conviction of any move; persistent negative cash flow and high multiples sustain asymmetric risk if macro or category-level headwinds reemerge. Catalyst risk centers on integration execution updates, partner distribution announcements, and any revisions to forward guidance scheduled around the next report on May 28, 2026.

About Celsius Holdings, Inc.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CELH) develops and markets functional energy beverages designed to support active lifestyles. Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, the company was founded in 2004 and has since established itself as a leader in the global functional beverage industry. Celsius Holdings’ flagship product, CELSIUS, aims to boost metabolism and assist in burning body fat, catering to health-conscious consumers. The company’s product range includes a diverse selection of flavors and formats, offering both carbonated and non-carbonated drinks, as well as convenient on-the-go powders. These products fall under various brand names, such as CELSIUS Originals, Vibe, Essentials, and CELSIUS On-the-Go. Celsius Holdings emphasizes health and wellness by ensuring its formulations are free from artificial preservatives and high fructose corn syrup. Celsius Holdings maintains a robust distribution network, reaching consumers in the United States and internationally, including regions like Australia, Europe, and the Middle East. The company’s products are readily available in supermarkets, convenience stores, health clubs, and through e-commerce platforms. Celsius Holdings continues to innovate and expand its market presence, providing consumers with products that align with their active and healthy lifestyles.



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