Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) Pursues Buybacks And Partnerships, Near-Term Volatility Expected

Commvault advances corporate actions and strategic alliances while technical indicators signal a short-term shift in momentum; valuation metrics remain stretched versus operating performance.

Recent News

Late January through March brought several non-earnings developments: multiple shareholder firms announced investigations into company disclosures in late February; the company announced expanded security and data-protection alliances with Microsoft and a new collaboration with NetApp in March; Commvault confirmed participation in RSAC conferences in March; the board authorized a material share-repurchase program and executed repurchases in January.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 27.85 indicates a strong directional environment rather than absence of trend; that strength implies price action will likely follow whichever directional forces dominate in the coming weeks.

DI+ sits at 16.32 with a peak-and-reverse reading, which represents a bearish shift in positive directional momentum; DI- at 25.63 also shows a peak-and-reverse pattern, which signals a bullish shift for negative-direction momentum — the simultaneous signals produce a near-term tug-of-war that favors volatility over decisiveness.

MACD is -2.77 with a dip-and-reversal trend and currently above its signal line (-3.41), a short-term bullish momentum signal that suggests recent selling pressure may have stabilized and momentum could compress valuation multiples in the near term.

MRO reads -20.76 and shows a dip-and-reversal pattern; the negative MRO implies price sits below model fair-target levels and therefore carries measured upside potential into a mean-reversion move rather than indicating further immediate downside pressure.

RSI at 38.44 with a dip-and-reversal signature points to recent selling and a possible rebound setup if buying interest returns; price sits near the 20-day average ($78.96) and below the 50-day average ($84.85), so short-term mean reversion would initially test nearby moving-average resistance.

Price behavior and breadth indicators together suggest elevated near-term volatility: bearish directional momentum readings conflict with MACD and MRO rebound signals, implying that any rally could face resistance near the price50dayAvg and ichimoku levels while failing to decisively shift longer-term averages such as the 200-day ($139.28).

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $313,832,000 with YoY revenue growth of 13.63% and a trailing 12-month gross margin of 81.106%, reflecting strong software economics and recurring-revenue mix. QoQ revenue change showed contraction; recent quarter-level seasonality and timing appear behind the sequential dip.

EBIT measured $28,473,000 and EBIT margin stands at 9.07% (EBIT margin QoQ +59.23%, EBIT margin YoY +56.67%). That margin sits below the industry peer mean of 46.41% and below the industry peer median of 60.27%, indicating operational profitability lags peer-level margins despite improving quarter-over-quarter performance.

EPS came in at $1.17 versus an estimate of $0.98, producing a $0.19 beat and an EPS surprise of +19.39%; earnings growth shows acceleration on the latest annual comparison, though quarter-to-quarter earnings growth decelerated.

Liquidity and cash flow present mixed signals. Cash and short-term investments total $1,026,346,000 and the cash ratio equals 1.66, supporting near-term obligations. Free cash flow remains constrained at $1,926,000 and free-cash-flow yield measures near 0.03%, with free cash flow QoQ and YoY indicators signaling material contraction on a near-term basis.

Balance-sheet leverage appears elevated. Total debt equals $918,645,000, debt-to-equity sits at 4.24 and debt-to-assets at 45.07%; the debt-to-equity ratio lies above the industry peer mean and well above the industry peer median, which highlights higher financial leverage relative to peers even as interest coverage remains healthy.

Valuation multiples remain rich versus operating metrics: P/E at 113.33, P/S at 18.61 and P/B at 26.94. P/B exceeds the industry peer high of 24.20, and the enterprise multiple (enterprise-to-revenue) also prints elevated. WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting stretched multiples relative to current profit and cash-flow conversion despite solid revenue growth and a strong gross margin profile.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-01-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-04-28
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 4.0 M
 Capital Expenditures -2.12 M
 Change In Working Capital -61.39 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -37.21 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.0 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 313.8 M
 Forward Revenue 233.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 59.3 M
 Depreciation 3.8 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.8 M
 Research and Development 42.2 M
 Total Operating Expenses 282.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 254.5 M
 EBITDA 32.3 M
 EBIT 28.5 M
 Operating Income 31.7 M
 Interest Income 8.4 M
 Interest Expense 1.4 M
 Net Interest Income 7.0 M
 Income Before Tax 27.0 M
 Tax Provision 9.2 M
 Tax Rate 34.199 %
 Net Income 17.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 17.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.98
 EPS Actual 1.17
 EPS Difference 0.19
 EPS Surprise 19.388 %
 Forward EPS 1.20
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.0 B
 Intangible Assets 231.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets -15.08 M
 Total Current Assets 1.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.0 B
 Cash 1.0 B
 Net Receivables 361.8 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 65.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 268.0 K
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 616.6 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 918.6 M
 Total Liabilities 1.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 216.7 M
 Retained Earnings -1.25 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 4.92
 Shares Outstanding 44.034 M
 Revenue Per-Share 7.13
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 5.8 B
 Enterprise Value 5.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 177.686
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -56.867 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -53.066 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 416.607
CVLT: 177.686
mean: 71.883
median: 61.115
low: -363.609
 EV/R 18.262
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.404
 Asset To Liability 1.119
 Debt To Capital 0.809
 Debt To Assets 0.451
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.895 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3878.199 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.87
CVLT: 0.451
mean: 0.167
median: 0.087
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 4.239
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.808 %
Debt To Equity YoY 10417.717 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA CVLT: 4.239
high: 2.77
mean: 0.261
median: 0.147
low: -1.125
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 26.941
Price To Book QoQ -27.918 %
Price To Book YoY 10.238 %
Price To Book IPRWA CVLT: 26.941
high: 24.203
mean: 10.827
median: 9.178
low: -16.001
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 113.334
Price To Earnings QoQ -42.243 %
Price To Earnings YoY -33.333 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 522.411
mean: 127.104
CVLT: 113.334
median: 111.19
low: -262.004
 PE/G Ratio 3.967
 Price To Sales (P/S) 18.605
Price To Sales QoQ -34.674 %
Price To Sales YoY -30.54 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 116.554
mean: 45.013
median: 44.141
CVLT: 18.605
low: 0.761
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 115.597
Forward PE/G 4.046
Forward P/S 24.945
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 5.938
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.159
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.127 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -40.109 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.428
CVLT: 0.159
mean: 0.13
median: 0.125
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 1.052
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -6.633 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.622 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.582
mean: 1.565
median: 1.485
CVLT: 1.052
low: 0.061
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 86.741
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 113.407
mean: 63.698
median: 62.904
low: 21.685
CVLT: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.379
 CapEx To Revenue -0.007
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.56
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -15.08 M
 Net Working Capital 828.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.664
 Current Ratio 2.343
Current Ratio QoQ -7.277 %
Current Ratio YoY 107.939 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.654
CVLT: 2.343
mean: 1.819
median: 1.386
low: 0.089
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 28.481
 Cost Of Debt 0.132 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.65
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -20.461 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -86.564 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 238.5
median: 66.552
mean: 45.877
CVLT: 19.65
low: -237.222
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.171
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 0.52
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.323 %
 Revenue Growth 13.63 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -763.906 %
Revenue Growth YoY 8.329 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 19.11 %
CVLT: 13.63 %
mean: 6.014 %
median: 4.635 %
low: -10.142 %
 Earnings Growth 28.571 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -388.567 %
Earnings Growth YoY 115.581 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 153.333 %
CVLT: 28.571 %
mean: 13.474 %
median: 10.811 %
low: -163.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 81.106 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.294 %
Gross Margin YoY -0.469 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 94.68 %
CVLT: 81.106 %
mean: 71.947 %
median: 68.036 %
low: 17.541 %
 EBIT Margin 9.073 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 59.231 %
EBIT Margin YoY 56.674 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 136.21 %
median: 60.268 %
mean: 46.41 %
CVLT: 9.073 %
low: -149.192 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.087 %
Return On Sales QoQ 100.139 %
Return On Sales YoY 74.184 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.917 %
median: 47.094 %
mean: 36.504 %
CVLT: 10.087 %
low: -149.192 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.033 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -96.471 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -92.235 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.018 %
mean: 0.169 %
median: 0.164 %
CVLT: 0.033 %
low: -8.479 %
 Free Cash Growth -97.383 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -166.291 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 119.366 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 265.627 %
mean: -23.302 %
median: -77.08 %
CVLT: -97.383 %
low: -204.458 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.108
 Cash Flow Margin -33.638 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -5.937
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.899 %
Return On Assets QoQ -5.567 %
Return On Assets YoY -19.155 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 16.838 %
median: 5.909 %
mean: 4.689 %
CVLT: 0.899 %
low: -21.173 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.003 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.082
Return On Equity QoQ 17.231 %
Return On Equity YoY 114.286 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.362
median: 0.098
mean: 0.086
CVLT: 0.082
low: -0.293
 DuPont ROE 8.325 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.709 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 21.292 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -135.723 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 22.805 %
median: 9.056 %
mean: 7.419 %
CVLT: 1.709 %
low: -19.407 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect heightened swings rather than a clear directional trend. Technical signals point to a short-term rebound possibility supported by MACD crossing above its signal and a negative MRO implying upside toward near-term moving averages; simultaneous DI+/DI- reversals and a strong ADX, however, increase the probability of failed rallies and range-bound trading between roughly the 20-day and 50-day averages. Elevated valuation multiples and high leverage mean fundamental drivers could amplify any sentiment-driven moves. Monitor momentum confirmation and volume for conviction; absent sustained breadth pickup, price is more likely to test resistance levels than to establish a durable uptrend within six weeks.

About Commvault Systems, Inc.

CommVault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) develops advanced data protection and management solutions, empowering businesses to enhance their cyber resiliency. Based in Tinton Falls, New Jersey, the company provides a comprehensive suite of offerings that ensure data security, availability, and compliance across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and technology. CommVault’s flagship solutions include Operational Recovery for seamless data backup and recovery, and Autonomous Recovery for automated disaster and cyber recovery across on-premises, cloud, or hybrid environments. Their Cyber Recovery solutions offer advanced threat detection and scanning, safeguarding data from potential cyber threats. The company also innovates in cloud technology with Cleanroom Recovery, providing a secure, isolated recovery environment, and HyperScale X, a scalable data protection solution that supports the transition to hybrid cloud infrastructures. Cloud Air Gap Protect further enhances security by offering an air-gapped cloud storage solution, aiding digital transformation while minimizing risks. With a strong focus on compliance, CommVault ensures data integrity through robust reporting and auditing capabilities. Since its founding in 1996, CommVault has consistently delivered solutions that help organizations navigate the complexities of today’s digital landscape.



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