Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Accelerates Data-Center Push, Signaling Near-Term Revenue Upside

Semtech shows concentrated product momentum in connectivity and data-center signal integrity while near-term price action reflects short-term technical weakness. Fundamentals show a small EPS beat amid valuation compression and WMDST classifies the stock as over-valued.

Recent News

Jan. 6–9, 2026: Semtech exhibited IoT connectivity, smart sensing and protection products at CES 2026. Feb. 18, 2026: the company highlighted AI data-center connectivity and signal-integrity technologies at DesignCon 2026. Mar. 26, 2026: Semtech announced participation and demonstrations slated for MWC26 Barcelona. Mar. 16, 2026: the company released fourth-quarter fiscal results for the period ending in late January.

Technical Analysis

ADX/DI+/DI-: ADX at 18.9 indicates no trend strength; DI+ at 16.91 trending down signals bearish directional pressure, while DI- at 26.84 showing a peak-and-reversal implies DI- has begun to decline, a bullish development for directional balance. Taken together, indicators show no dominant trend but short-term directional tug-of-war with a bearish lean.

MACD: MACD sits at -2.85 and trends downward, below the signal line (-1.57), consistent with bearish momentum and continuation risk for near-term downside unless MACD turns higher or crosses above its signal line.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO equals -2.32 and trends downward; the negative MRO indicates the price sits below the calculated target, implying mean-reversion upside potential if momentum stabilizes.

RSI: RSI reads 49.59 and declines, indicating neutral-to-weak momentum with a tilt toward selling pressure from a short-term perspective.

Price vs. Moving Averages & Bands: Last close at $70.61 trades below the 20‑day average ($78.50) and the 50‑day average ($83.59) while remaining above the 200‑day average ($67.33). The 12‑day EMA is declining, and the price sits below the 1x lower Bollinger band ($72.24), showing short-term downside extension against longer-term support near the 200‑day average. Elevated short-term volatility appears in the 42‑day beta (2.89) and 52‑week beta (2.32).

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and EPS: Reported EPS equaled $0.44 versus an estimate of $0.43, a surprise of $0.01 or +2.33%. Earnings growth stands at -8.33% (latest reported metric), with earnings growth QoQ at -148.81% and earnings growth YoY at -115.48% as reported; these figures indicate material year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter volatility in reported earnings trends.

Revenue and Cash Flow: Reported revenue growth shows 0.0 (flat) with revenue growth QoQ and YoY both at -1.0 (reported as -100%), and reported cash-conversion and operating cash-flow metrics display zero values in the provided dataset. Invested capital equals $325,816,000 and cost of debt runs at 0.538%.

Valuation Metrics: Trailing PE equals 186.44 while forward PE equals 101.81. Both sit above the industry peer mean (PE mean ≈ 35.50; forward PE mean ≈ 20.50). PEG stands at -22.37 versus an industry peer mean near 0.30, and PE ratio QoQ and YoY show increases of about +39.59% QoQ and +53.96% YoY respectively per supplied metrics. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued. Price target mean reported at $84.60 versus last close $70.61, with a target range from $41.19 to $151.70.

Balance Between Technicals and Fundamentals: Short-term technical weakness contrasts with pockets of fundamental strength (small EPS beat) and product-cycle newsflow around data-center and IoT demonstrations. Valuation metrics remain elevated relative to industry peer mean and median, supporting WMDST’s over-valued classification.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2026-01-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-03-16
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-06-15
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue
 Forward Revenue
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax
 Tax Provision
 Tax Rate
 Net Income
 Net Income From Continuing Operations
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.43
 EPS Actual 0.44
 EPS Difference 0.01
 EPS Surprise 2.326 %
 Forward EPS 0.73
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash
 Net Receivables
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt
 Total Debt
 Total Liabilities
EQUITY
 Total Equity
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share
 Shares Outstanding
 Revenue Per-Share
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization
 Enterprise Value
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity
 Asset To Liability
 Debt To Capital
 Debt To Assets
Debt To Assets QoQ
Debt To Assets YoY
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity
Debt To Equity QoQ
Debt To Equity YoY
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B)
Price To Book QoQ
Price To Book YoY
Price To Book IPRWA
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 186.438
Price To Earnings QoQ 39.592 %
Price To Earnings YoY 53.964 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 539.07
SMTC: 186.438
mean: 35.495
low: 30.169
median: 30.169
 PE/G Ratio -22.373
 Price To Sales (P/S)
Price To Sales QoQ
Price To Sales YoY
Price To Sales IPRWA
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 101.808
Forward PE/G -12.218
Forward P/S
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 169.503
mean: 119.355
median: 116.607
low: 56.914
SMTC: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital
 Net Invested Capital
 Invested Capital 325.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 0.538 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate
 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 74.888 %
mean: 23.384 %
median: 19.508 %
low: 3.118 %
SMTC: 0.0 %
 Earnings Growth -8.333 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -148.808 %
Earnings Growth YoY -115.476 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 155.23 %
mean: 149.873 %
median: 59.701 %
SMTC: -8.333 %
low: -51.852 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
 Free Cash Flow Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income
 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA)
Return On Assets QoQ
Return On Assets YoY
Return On Assets IPRWA
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE)
Return On Equity QoQ
Return On Equity YoY
Return On Equity IPRWA
 DuPont ROE
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Expect choppy, volatility-driven action over the next six weeks. Near-term technical signals favor downside risk: MACD momentum is negative and declining, the 12‑day EMA is falling, and price trades below key short-term averages and the Bollinger 1x lower band. Countervailing signals include a negative MRO that implies mean-reversion potential and a close above the 200‑day average that provides structural support.

Watch for a stabilization in MACD (flattening or a move higher) and a halt to the DI+ decline as the primary technical prerequisites for a tactical recovery; absent those changes, short-term momentum likely remains biased lower with elevated volatility given the high betas. Fundamental releases or event-driven product demonstrations could shift sentiment quickly; maintain attention on reported guidance or new commercial announcements during earnings and conference appearances.

About Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) designs, develops, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company delivers signal integrity solutions, offering optical data communications and video transport products for infrastructure and industrial applications. Semtech provides integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, and high-speed interface applications, alongside video products for broadcast and video-over-IP technology for professional audio-visual applications. In the protection segment, Semtech offers devices that integrate filter and termination solutions with transient voltage suppressors to safeguard electronic systems against voltage spikes. The company’s sensing products include specialized radio frequency solutions for industrial, medical, and communications sectors, along with advanced sensing technologies. Semtech also develops power management solutions such as switching voltage regulators, smart regulators, and wireless charging products. Its Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio features modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based solutions for various applications. Serving original equipment manufacturers and industrial markets, Semtech distributes its products directly and through independent sales representatives and distributors across Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe. Founded in 1960, Semtech Corporation maintains its headquarters in Camarillo, California.



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