Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) Anticipates Near-Term Volume-Driven Momentum

Suburban Propane shows emerging technical momentum while fundamentals reveal leverage and negative free cash flow that constrain upside; near-term moves should track heating-season volumes and refinancing progress.

Recent News

On December 8, 2025 the company priced $350.0 million in senior notes due 2035 at a 6.50% coupon and indicated proceeds would be used, together with borrowings, to redeem $350.0 million of senior notes due 2027; the issuance extends debt maturities and bolsters financing flexibility.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 14.76 — no trend; this low strength reading implies price action can swing without a dominant directional bias, so short-term momentum will drive moves more than a larger trend.

DI+ dip & reversal (DI+ 15.69) — bullish; DI- peak & reversal (DI- 13.25) — bullish; both directional indicators flipping favor near-term upside, consistent with a momentum-led push rather than a confirmed trending regime.

MACD dip & reversal (MACD 0.24, signal 0.25) — bullish momentum emerging, though MACD remains slightly below its signal line and has not yet crossed above it; this points to a nascent upswing that needs confirmation by a MACD crossover.

MRO -3.3 (dip & reversal) — negative MRO indicates the price sits below WMDST’s target and, given the dip-and-reverse pattern, suggests potential for a corrective push upward toward fair-value pressures identified below.

RSI 58.84 (dip & reversal) — momentum sits in the upper neutral band, supportive of additional gains without overbought readings; that level aligns with modest upside scope rather than an extended rally.

Price sits at $20.59, above the 12-day EMA ($20.35, increasing), the 20-day average ($20.31) and the 50-day average ($19.55); the 200-day average remains well below at $18.58, so short-term momentum currently outpaces longer-term averages and keeps the near-term technical bias constructive.

Bollinger bands remain narrow (1x band roughly $20.12–$20.51) and the super trend lower at $19.52 provides a nearby mechanical support; proximity to the 52-week high ($20.70) limits immediate breakout space while leaving room for a measured move higher if volume expands.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT $65,767,000 and EBITDA $82,631,000 produce an EBIT margin of 17.756%, below the industry peer mean of 22.328% but above the industry peer low of 9.048%; EBIT margin improved +67.42% year-over-year, indicating stronger operating leverage versus the prior period.

Revenue and earnings: Total revenue $370,386,000 with revenue growth year-over-year at -4.70% and quarter-over-quarter decline of -5.01%; reported EPS of $0.70 missed the estimate of $0.75 by $0.05, a -6.67% surprise. Forward EPS sits at $0.5125 with a forward P/E of 36.44, implying elevated expectations relative to short-term earnings.

Cash flow and capital: Operating cash flow negative at -$47,666,000 and free cash flow -$67,471,000 produce a free cash flow yield of -5.33%, well below the industry peer mean of 0.72%; negative free cash flow and a cash conversion cycle of 55.12 days underline working-capital intensity during seasonally heavy periods.

Balance sheet and leverage: Net debt $1,321,221,000, total debt $1,434,945,000 and debt-to-equity 2.29 exceed the industry peer mean of 1.48, while debt-to-EBITDA at 17.37 indicates materially high leverage on trailing earnings. Interest coverage of 3.33 slightly exceeds the industry peer mean of 3.14 but leaves limited cushion against rate or margin pressure.

Returns and capital efficiency: Return on equity 7.31% and return on assets 1.95% sit above some low peer benchmarks but below stronger peers; asset turnover 0.158 remains modest versus the industry peer mean of 0.121, reflecting capital intensity in distribution and storage assets.

Dividends and payout: Dividend yield 1.69% with a payout ratio of 46.75% and dividend coverage ratio 2.14, indicating distributions remain covered by earnings but the payout consumes a sizable share of net income amid negative free cash flow.

Valuation note: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Analyst targets show a mean of $19.05, below the current $20.59 close, while the price target high of $27.50 and low of $14.37 frame asymmetric sentiment; negative free cash flow and elevated leverage underpin WMDST’s over-valued determination despite near-term volume improvements.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 11.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow -47.67 M
 Capital Expenditures -19.80 M
 Change In Working Capital -115.39 M
 Dividends Paid -21.40 M
 Cash Flow Delta -196.00 K
 End Period Cash Flow 11.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 370.4 M
 Forward Revenue 68.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 130.8 M
 Depreciation 16.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 16.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 302.7 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 239.5 M
 EBITDA 82.6 M
 EBIT 65.8 M
 Operating Income 67.7 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 19.8 M
 Net Interest Income -19.76 M
 Income Before Tax 46.0 M
 Tax Provision 231.0 K
 Tax Rate 0.502 %
 Net Income 45.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 45.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.75
 EPS Actual 0.70
 EPS Difference -0.05
 EPS Surprise -6.667 %
 Forward EPS 0.51
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.4 B
 Intangible Assets 1.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Total Current Assets 236.0 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.3 M
 Cash 1.3 M
 Net Receivables 129.3 M
 Inventory 69.3 M
 Long-Term Investments 79.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 47.9 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 272.6 M
 Net Debt 1.3 B
 Total Debt 1.4 B
 Total Liabilities 1.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 626.2 M
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.44
 Shares Outstanding 66.329 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.58
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.3 B
 Enterprise Value 2.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.673
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -98.42 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -29.889 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 59.048
mean: 40.957
median: 38.693
SPH: 32.673
low: 23.358
 EV/R 7.289
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.826
 Asset To Liability 1.354
 Debt To Capital 0.696
 Debt To Assets 0.599
Debt To Assets QoQ 3.43 %
Debt To Assets YoY -0.864 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.697
SPH: 0.599
median: 0.492
mean: 0.466
low: 0.335
 Debt To Equity 2.291
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.146 %
Debt To Equity YoY -13.297 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.354
SPH: 2.291
mean: 1.476
median: 1.459
low: 0.712
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.022
Price To Book QoQ 0.674 %
Price To Book YoY -8.588 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.616
SPH: 2.022
mean: 1.966
median: 1.935
low: 1.712
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 27.27
Price To Earnings QoQ -180.657 %
Price To Earnings YoY -56.244 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 112.823
mean: 63.841
median: 42.946
low: 31.743
SPH: 27.27
 PE/G Ratio -0.119
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.418
Price To Sales QoQ -39.892 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.843 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 39.081
mean: 9.315
median: 5.322
SPH: 3.418
low: 1.296
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 36.437
Forward PE/G -0.159
Forward P/S 18.415
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -6.358
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.158
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 72.189 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.522 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.21
SPH: 0.158
median: 0.136
mean: 0.121
low: 0.031
 Receivables Turnover 3.727
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 31.712 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -4.393 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA SPH: 3.727
high: 3.243
median: 2.855
mean: 2.725
low: 1.573
 Inventory Turnover 1.83
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 64.469 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -27.884 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 7.459
mean: 5.304
median: 5.201
low: 3.642
SPH: 1.83
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 24.485
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 55.118
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.312 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 218.475 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA SPH: 55.118
high: 13.243
median: 2.314
mean: -0.527
low: -61.052
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -10.117
 CapEx To Revenue -0.053
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.174
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Invested Capital 1.9 B
 Net Tangible Assets -1.26 B
 Net Working Capital -36.61 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.005
 Current Ratio 0.866
Current Ratio QoQ 57.664 %
Current Ratio YoY 23.986 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.219
mean: 0.878
SPH: 0.866
median: 0.705
low: 0.637
 Quick Ratio 0.612
Quick Ratio QoQ 100.118 %
Quick Ratio YoY 18.9 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 0.994
mean: 0.661
SPH: 0.612
median: 0.556
low: 0.504
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 17.366
 Cost Of Debt 1.422 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.329
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -429.47 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 64.888 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 4.756
SPH: 3.329
mean: 3.139
median: 2.94
low: 1.787
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.037
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 56.803
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.139
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.467
 Dividend Rate 0.32
 Dividend Yield 0.017
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.333 %
 Revenue Growth 75.226 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -501.248 %
Revenue Growth YoY -4.698 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA SPH: 75.226 %
high: 34.852 %
mean: 13.278 %
median: 8.731 %
low: 0.955 %
 Earnings Growth -229.63 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -270.37 %
Earnings Growth YoY 60.045 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 55.172 %
mean: 15.772 %
median: -4.425 %
low: -30.921 %
SPH: -229.63 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 64.675 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.034 %
Gross Margin YoY 6.758 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 78.864 %
SPH: 64.675 %
mean: 35.977 %
median: 25.163 %
low: 17.429 %
 EBIT Margin 17.756 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -315.905 %
EBIT Margin YoY 67.415 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 61.514 %
mean: 22.328 %
median: 18.809 %
SPH: 17.756 %
low: 9.048 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 18.265 %
Return On Sales QoQ -330.415 %
Return On Sales YoY 72.214 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 49.211 %
mean: 21.082 %
SPH: 18.265 %
median: 16.977 %
low: 9.293 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -67.47 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -5.329 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -331.293 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 326.661 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.875 %
median: 1.194 %
mean: 0.718 %
low: -0.382 %
SPH: -5.329 %
 Free Cash Growth -343.569 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 422.594 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 85.728 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 380.46 %
median: -29.756 %
mean: -35.525 %
low: -117.647 %
SPH: -343.569 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -1.474
 Cash Flow Margin 2.726 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.221
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.951 %
Return On Assets QoQ -228.018 %
Return On Assets YoY 133.933 %
Return On Assets IPRWA SPH: 1.951 %
high: 1.466 %
median: 1.373 %
mean: 1.154 %
low: 0.686 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.098 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.073
Return On Equity QoQ -224.549 %
Return On Equity YoY 105.25 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.083
SPH: 0.073
mean: 0.033
median: 0.032
low: 0.023
 DuPont ROE 7.476 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.358 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -542.424 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY 25.345 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA SPH: 3.358 %
high: 2.461 %
median: 2.0 %
mean: 1.996 %
low: 1.695 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term technicals favor a constructive bias: momentum indicators signal a nascent bullish pulse while price trades above short-term EMAs and support at $19.52. However, fundamentals cap the upside—negative free cash flow, high net debt and an analyst mean target below the current price limit sustained advances. Expect price to oscillate within the $19.50 support and the $20.70 resistance zone absent a catalytic improvement in operating cash flow or a confirmed MACD crossover; meaningful breakouts will likely require stronger volume or further clarity on refinancing and RNG growth execution.

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (NYSE:SPH) distributes and markets propane, renewable propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels across the United States. Through its Propane segment, the company supplies propane for residential uses such as space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying, as well as for industrial applications including motor fuel for vehicles and equipment. The Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment delivers fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers, primarily for heating purposes. In the Natural Gas and Electricity segment, Suburban Propane markets natural gas and electricity to customers in deregulated markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The All Other segment provides sales, installation, and maintenance services for home comfort equipment, including heating systems, air cleaners, and space heaters. Serving a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. maintains a strong presence on the east and west coasts, as well as in the Midwest and Alaska. Founded in 1945, the company is headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey.



© 2026 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.