Recent News
On January 13, 2026 Trex announced the limited launch of Trex Refuge™ ignition‑resistant PVC decking for fire‑prone regions. Trex showcased its new product portfolio, including Refuge and expanded Select offerings, at the 2026 International Builders Show in February. The company also reported expanded distributor partnerships and a $150 million board share‑repurchase authorization in late February.
Technical Analysis
ADX at 27.43 indicates a strong underlying trend in place; this strength increases the relevance of conflicting directional signals when assessing near‑term movement.
DI+ shows a dip & reversal, which reads as a bullish directional shift; DI‑ sits at 18.59 and is increasing, which reads as a bearish push. Together these indicate directional disagreement that often resolves as consolidation before a clearer directional break, keeping short‑term price direction uncertain.
MACD sits positive at 0.28 but is decreasing and remains below its signal line (0.62), signaling waning bullish momentum and suggesting bearish momentum dominates until a MACD crossover occurs.
MRO reads -12.59 and is decreasing, which implies price sits below the model target and retains measurable upside potential if momentum mean‑reverts; that potential contrasts with the weakening MACD.
RSI at 53.02 and declining signals mild loss of upward momentum without oversold conditions, consistent with a range‑bound move rather than a sharp reversal.
Price sits below the 200‑day average ($50.02) but above the 50‑day average ($40.22); the short‑term averages (12/26‑day EMAs decreasing) suggest near‑term pressure while the 50‑day support and the lower Bollinger band proximity limit immediate downside. These patterns align with a consolidation that could resolve higher if MRO mean‑reverts or lower if MACD momentum continues to decline.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue totaled $285,348,000 with YoY revenue growth of -30.33% and a QoQ revenue change of -287.89%; the sharp QoQ decline indicates sequencing effects in sales and channel inventories that materially depressed top‑line comparisons.
Gross margin stands at 40.46%, up 1.44% YoY, supporting a 24.67% EBIT margin. EBIT margin improved YoY by 6.18% but contracted QoQ by 6.57%. The EBIT margin sits above the industry peer mean (14.83%) and industry peer median (18.59%), and remains below the peer high (27.68%), indicating comparatively strong margin performance despite recent quarter‑to‑quarter compression.
Net income reached $51,770,000 and EBITDA measured $86,408,000; operating cash flow came in at $196,888,000 with free cash flow of $139,570,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 2.39% and a YoY increase in free cash flow yield of +220.64%—cash generation thus remains a material support for valuation.
Liquidity metrics show a current ratio of 1.20 and a quick ratio of 0.67; quick ratio sits below the industry peer mean (1.22), indicating tighter near‑term liquidity relative to peers despite a healthy cash conversion ratio of 107.95 days and robust operating cash flow.
Leverage remains modest: debt to assets equals 10.90% and debt to equity 15.19%, while interest coverage remains elevated. Asset turnover at 0.1909 trails the industry peer mean (0.2566), reflecting a capital‑intensive business model and lower sales per asset dollar in the recent period.
Earnings per share came in at $0.04 versus an estimate of -$0.01, representing an EPS surprise ratio of 500%. Forward EPS sits near $0.462 while reported P/E equals 106.69 and forward P/E near 108.45; price‑to‑sales and price‑to‑book ratios run high, reflecting market expectations priced into multiples despite WMDST’s assessment.
WMDST values the stock as fair‑valued. Given strong cash generation and above‑mean EBIT margin, fair valuation reflects a balance between elevated multiples and cash flow support amid steep YoY revenue declines and compressed short‑term margins.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-24 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-05-26 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 5.5 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 196.9 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -57.32 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 127.8 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 5.8 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 11.4 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 285.3 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 68.3 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 169.9 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 16.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 16.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 215.0 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 115.4 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 86.4 M | |
| EBIT | $ 70.4 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 70.4 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | — | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 70.4 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 18.6 M | |
| Tax Rate | 26.5 % | |
| Net Income | $ 51.8 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 51.8 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ -0.01 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.04 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.05 | |
| EPS Surprise | 500.0 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.46 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 1.5 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 30.4 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.0 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 337.8 M | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 11.4 M | |
| Cash | $ 11.4 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 164.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 149.6 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 9.3 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 47.5 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 111.3 M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 282.2 M | |
| Net Debt | $ 99.9 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 158.3 M | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 410.0 M | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.0 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 1.8 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 9.72 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.254 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 2.66 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 5.8 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 6.0 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 69.241 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 18.728 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -36.132 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 133.234 mean: 73.535 TREX: 69.241 median: 68.733 low: -21.375 |
|
| EV/R | 20.967 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 1.393 | |
| Asset To Liability | 3.543 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.132 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.109 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -43.08 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 97.303 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.788 mean: 0.315 median: 0.26 TREX: 0.109 low: 0.002 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.152 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -48.987 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 92.605 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 1.445 median: 0.554 mean: 0.484 TREX: 0.152 low: -1.565 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 5.598 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -16.15 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -31.963 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 11.181 TREX: 5.598 mean: 5.281 median: 5.12 low: -6.522 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 106.692 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 28.53 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -41.697 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 109.061 TREX: 106.692 median: 85.953 mean: 83.351 low: -25.103 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -3.54 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 20.452 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 20.087 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -34.572 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | TREX: 20.452 high: 19.814 mean: 11.645 median: 10.492 low: 0.477 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 108.448 | |
| Forward PE/G | -3.598 | |
| Forward P/S | 72.455 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 1.183 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.191 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -21.773 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 3.588 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.445 median: 0.271 mean: 0.257 TREX: 0.191 low: 0.08 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 1.254 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 10.284 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 9.989 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.048 mean: 1.633 median: 1.593 TREX: 1.254 low: 0.991 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 1.166 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -19.199 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 39.761 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.671 median: 1.537 mean: 1.473 TREX: 1.166 low: 0.131 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 72.787 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 107.951 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -14.789 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -15.243 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 192.11 TREX: 107.951 mean: 70.256 median: 54.627 low: -4.745 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 5.132 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.201 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -3.58 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 1.0 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 1.2 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 1.2 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.0 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 55.6 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.04 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.197 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 10.703 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -14.741 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 6.403 mean: 1.819 median: 1.462 TREX: 1.197 low: 0.708 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.667 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | -10.23 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | 1.697 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.623 mean: 1.22 median: 0.845 low: 0.747 TREX: 0.667 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 1.832 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.0 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 14079.4 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -31.252 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 29.635 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | TREX: 14079.4 high: 51.973 mean: 14.912 median: 12.04 low: -18.989 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.595 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 22.723 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -5.552 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -26.419 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -287.888 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -30.328 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 23.324 % median: -0.068 % mean: -0.563 % low: -18.447 % TREX: -26.419 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -30.137 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -239.092 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -43.931 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 94.737 % median: 6.061 % mean: 2.945 % TREX: -30.137 % low: -63.636 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 40.455 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -0.79 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 1.444 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 64.041 % TREX: 40.455 % median: 36.495 % mean: 35.558 % low: 16.122 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 24.671 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -6.567 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 6.18 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 27.681 % TREX: 24.671 % median: 18.588 % mean: 14.826 % low: -24.883 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 24.671 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -6.567 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | 6.18 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 25.101 % TREX: 24.671 % median: 18.522 % mean: 16.843 % low: -11.787 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 139.6 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 2.392 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -20.479 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 220.643 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 6.725 % TREX: 2.392 % mean: 1.261 % median: 1.005 % low: -3.853 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -29.757 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -83.903 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -54.612 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 482.946 % median: 55.364 % mean: 30.172 % TREX: -29.757 % low: -294.449 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 2.696 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 58.818 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 3.242 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 3.462 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -27.513 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | 8.289 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 6.849 % median: 3.716 % TREX: 3.462 % mean: 3.294 % low: -6.099 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 6.015 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.05 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -35.28 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 8.737 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.23 median: 0.097 mean: 0.069 TREX: 0.05 low: -0.203 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 5.096 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 4.485 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -26.99 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -93.68 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 16.563 % mean: 5.588 % median: 5.265 % TREX: 4.485 % low: -4.022 % |
|