Recent News
On February 12, 2026 the company scheduled fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results to be released on February 26, 2026. Management disclosed aggressive share repurchases through February 19, 2026 and noted elevated liquidity while guiding 2026 adjusted EBITDA. In December 2025 HGV completed a $400 million timeshare-loan securitization. The company’s 8-K and earnings commentary reported significant share buybacks executed in late 2025 and into 2026.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show a low-strength environment: ADX 15.94 signals no established trend while DI+ recently underwent a peak-and-reversal (bearish) and DI- a dip-and-reversal (bearish); that combination implies directional conflict and limited trend conviction, tempering near-term upside despite other momentum signals.
MACD sits at 0.63 and has trended higher with the MACD line above the 0.51 signal line, a bullish momentum cross that supports potential continuation of recent gains and aligns with the short-term positive price bias implied by moving averages.
MRO registers positive at 16.71 with a peak-and-reversal pattern; a positive MRO suggests price currently sits above modeled target and indicates a risk of mean reversion toward fair value, which contrasts with MACD’s bullish signal and softens the upside case.
RSI at 55.36 and increasing shows moderate bullish momentum without overbought stress, supporting a constrained rally that requires confirmation from volume or news catalysts to extend materially above recent levels.
Price sits above short- and long-term averages—20-day $47.29, 50-day $46.14 and 200-day $43.92—and above Ichimoku Tenkan and Kijun lines, creating a constructive technical posture. Bollinger bands place the close near the upper 1× band, suggesting limited immediate runway absent volatility expansion; SuperTrend lower support at $44.69 provides a near-term technical floor. These signals align with the WMDST valuation calling the stock under-valued but caution that technical strength lacks a strong trend confirmation.
Fundamental Analysis
- Revenue & Earnings: Total revenue $1,300,000,000 with revenue growth year-over-year of -53.279% and quarter-over-quarter deterioration; net income $25,000,000. Reported EPS $0.60 versus estimate $0.97, an EPS surprise of -38.144%.
- Profitability: EBIT $124,000,000 and EBIT margin 9.538%, down 29.624% YoY and 1.027% QoQ. EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 27.34% and below the industry peer median of 26.665%.
- Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow $34,000,000; free cash flow -$4,000,000 and free-cash-flow yield approximately -0.105%. Cash and short-term investments $215,000,000 against total current liabilities $1,702,000,000 produce a current ratio of 3.817 and quick ratio 2.375, reflecting near-term liquidity coverage.
- Leverage: Total debt $7,282,000,000, net debt $6,976,000,000, and debt-to-EBITDA ~38.13x. Debt-to-equity 5.26x and debt-to-assets 62.346% indicate meaningful financial leverage that raises solvency sensitivity to EBITDA swings.
- Valuation Multiples: Trailing PE roughly 73.56x and forward PE ~47.17x; price-to-book ~2.76 and enterprise multiple ~57.02. Price-target mean sits near $49.35 with a high at $80.33 and low at $28.74, reflecting wide analyst dispersion.
WMDST values the stock as under-valued. The valuation view rests on a gap between market capitalization and asset-backed cash flows, but elevated leverage, negative free cash flow yield, and a sizable EPS shortfall weaken the near-term fundamental case; securitization and ongoing buybacks reported by management provide liquidity engineering and capital return that influence cash-flow timing and leverage metrics.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-30 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-29 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 592.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 34.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -38.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -224.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -49.00 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 543.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 1.3 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 1.2 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 973.0 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 67.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 67.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.2 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 327.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 191.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 124.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 146.0 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 79.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -79.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 45.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 15.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 33.333 % | |
| Net Income | $ 25.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 30.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.97 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.60 | |
| EPS Difference | $ -0.37 | |
| EPS Surprise | -38.144 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.08 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 11.7 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 3.7 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -2.33 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 6.5 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 215.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 215.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 279.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 2.5 B | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 466.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 1.1 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 1.7 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 7.0 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 7.3 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 10.1 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.4 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 88.0 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 15.99 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 86.636 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 15.01 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 3.8 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 10.9 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 57.019 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -6.651 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 37.256 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 92.716 HGV: 57.019 median: 36.772 mean: 33.881 low: -68.053 |
|
| EV/R | 8.377 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 8.433 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.152 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.84 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.623 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 2.094 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 3.699 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.809 HGV: 0.623 mean: 0.549 median: 0.548 low: 0.043 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 5.258 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 9.219 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 44.655 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 8.432 HGV: 5.258 mean: 2.446 median: 2.288 low: -6.794 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 2.761 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -1.106 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 35.152 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 12.922 median: 8.564 mean: 5.891 HGV: 2.761 low: -4.651 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 73.556 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -8.735 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -45.432 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | HGV: 73.556 high: 55.224 median: 55.224 mean: 39.561 low: -30.09 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 6.62 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 2.941 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -10.419 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 1.924 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 20.219 median: 16.819 mean: 10.703 HGV: 2.941 low: 0.025 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 47.17 | |
| Forward PE/G | 4.245 | |
| Forward P/S | 3.583 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 0.61 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.111 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 3.169 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -3.845 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.267 mean: 0.141 median: 0.131 HGV: 0.111 low: 0.047 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 4.779 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -2.6 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 8.872 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 17.37 median: 13.06 mean: 12.463 HGV: 4.779 low: 0.672 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 0.4 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -1.675 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -11.613 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 10.73 median: 9.612 mean: 9.231 HGV: 0.4 low: 0.036 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 19.092 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 141.823 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 10.989 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 18.999 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | HGV: 141.823 high: 117.708 mean: -7.496 median: -9.845 low: -155.188 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.271 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.029 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.567 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 8.6 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 8.6 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 8.6 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -2.33 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 4.8 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.126 | |
| Current Ratio | 3.817 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 5.032 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -21.731 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | HGV: 3.817 high: 3.744 mean: 0.367 median: 0.195 low: 0.165 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 2.375 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 4.517 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -23.644 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.123 HGV: 2.375 mean: 0.308 median: 0.166 low: 0.141 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 38.126 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.729 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 1.57 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 1.64 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -25.509 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.367 median: 6.858 mean: 6.345 HGV: 1.57 low: -7.647 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.07 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 108.728 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.494 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 2.686 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -73.869 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -53.279 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 107.793 % mean: 16.621 % median: 13.244 % HGV: 2.686 % low: -79.06 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 11.111 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -97.778 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -99.145 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 308.571 % mean: 103.551 % median: 31.279 % HGV: 11.111 % low: -148.197 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 25.154 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 3.391 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -9.001 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 95.594 % median: 47.08 % mean: 46.465 % HGV: 25.154 % low: -40.644 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 9.538 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -1.027 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -29.624 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 35.552 % mean: 27.34 % median: 26.665 % HGV: 9.538 % low: -74.393 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 11.231 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 2.295 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -17.133 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 33.119 % median: 27.867 % mean: 26.666 % HGV: 11.231 % low: -74.535 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -4.00 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -0.105 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -116.154 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -106.705 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 3.562 % HGV: -0.105 % mean: -0.163 % median: -1.144 % low: -119.666 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -114.815 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -132.804 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 202.982 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: -30.256 % HGV: -114.815 % mean: -150.864 % median: -208.681 % low: -369.143 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -0.16 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -9.154 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | -4.76 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.02 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.214 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 0.469 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -16.406 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.005 % median: 3.632 % mean: 3.409 % HGV: 0.214 % low: -3.214 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 1.243 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.018 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 7.504 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 14.822 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.191 median: 0.156 mean: 0.132 HGV: 0.018 low: -0.437 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 1.74 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 0.964 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 3.879 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -55.82 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 5.642 % median: 4.753 % mean: 4.728 % HGV: 0.964 % low: -4.932 % |
|