Bill Holdings, Inc (NYSE:BILL) Strengthens Profitability, Suggesting Near-Term Upside

BILL’s operating metrics and AI-driven revenue lift point to improving margin momentum, while mixed technicals and elevated short-term volatility warn of choppy price action ahead.

Technical Analysis

ADX / Directional Indicators: ADX at 22.08 signals an emerging trend strength rather than a firmly established directional move. Both directional lines imply bearish pressure: DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal (bearish) while DI- shows a dip-and-reversal (bearish), indicating sellers currently exert greater influence and that trend strength sits at the threshold for further directional conviction.

MACD: MACD registers negative values and shows a peak-and-reversal, denoting bearish momentum overall; however the MACD sits slightly above its signal line, representing a short-lived crossover that may not invalidate the underlying momentum shift. Taken together, momentum indicators favor downside bias with potential brief counter-moves.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO reads 4.15 (positive), which implies current market price sits above the model target and the oscillator’s peak-and-reversal points toward a likely pullback toward fair-value levels; the magnitude suggests modest downside pressure rather than extreme reversion risk.

RSI: RSI at 45.67 with a peak-and-reversal indicates lost near-term upward momentum without reaching oversold territory; this supports a neutral-to-bearish short-term bias rather than a reversal signal.

Price vs Moving Averages & Volatility: Close at $41.94 lies below the 20-day average ($44.68), the 12-day EMA ($45.30), the 50-day average ($49.61) and the 200-day average ($47.91), which confirms short-to-intermediate term price pressure. Bollinger band levels show a lower 1σ at $39.19 and upper 1σ at $50.16, marking current price nearer the lower band. Beta metrics show a very high 42-day beta (5.23) and elevated 52-week beta (1.88), indicating amplified short-term swings and sensitivity to market moves; volume sits around recent averages, so moves have produced typical liquidity rather than outsized flows.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue & Growth: Total revenue registers $414,671,000. Reported revenue growth stands at 4.78% on the rolling measure, with quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 47.94% and year-over-year revenue growth of 317.73% as provided. The QoQ acceleration supports the narrative of product adoption and episodic revenue cadence.

Profitability: EBIT of $3,005,000 produces an EBIT margin of 0.73%, well below the industry peer mean of 48.26% and industry peer median of 60.27%. Operating income shows a loss (operating income negative $17,664,000) and operating margin at -4.26%, though operating margin QoQ improved by 42.29%, indicating recent operational leverage. Gross margin stands at 79.84% and declined slightly YoY by 2.19 percentage points, which maintains a structurally high gross-profit profile consistent with software and payment economics.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow equals $105,317,000 and free cash flow equals $91,133,000; free cash flow yield measures 1.85%, above the industry peer mean of 0.143% for this metric. Cash and short-term investments total $2,241,500,000 with cash on hand of $1,094,530,000, and a current ratio of 1.65 compared with an industry peer mean current ratio of 1.34, reflecting a comfortable near-term liquidity position.

Capital Structure & Leverage: Total debt equals $1,887,090,000 with net debt of $739,070,000. Debt-to-equity sits at 49.57% and debt-to-assets at 18.64%, both consistent with a moderate leverage profile. Interest coverage sits at 0.59, which indicates a compressed cushion between operating earnings and interest but reflects the company’s low cost of debt.

Profitability Growth & Returns: Earnings growth reads 4.92% on the provided measure, though several return metrics (ROA, ROE) remain slightly negative. Cash conversion ratio stands at 14.32%, and cash conversion cycle days near 0.93 days, signaling efficient working capital mechanics for a payments platform.

Earnings Per Share & Valuation Metrics: Reported EPS of $0.64 beat the $0.56 estimate, an EPS surprise of 14.29%. Price multiples: PE ratio 77.04 and forward PE ~77.11; PEG around 15.66. Price-to-book 1.29 sits well below the industry peer mean of 12.16 and median of 9.18 for that metric. Enterprise value / revenue metrics show elevated enterprise multiple of 119.14 but WMDST’s current valuation assessment labels the stock as under-valued. The mix of high absolute multiples and operational improvements suggests the market prices premium growth optionality while fundamentals show early margin recovery.

Valuation Summary: Revenue momentum, operating-leverage improvement QoQ, and positive free cash flow combine with high gross margins to support the WMDST valuation that the stock presently categorizes as under-valued; margin levels still lag industry peer mean and median, leaving room for further EPS conversion if recent operational improvements persist.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-07
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 3.5 B
 Operating Cash Flow 105.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -14.18 M
 Change In Working Capital -4.94 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 128.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 3.7 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 414.7 M
 Forward Revenue -2.69 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 83.6 M
 Depreciation 7.6 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 35.4 M
 Research and Development 82.8 M
 Total Operating Expenses 432.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 331.1 M
 EBITDA 38.4 M
 EBIT 3.0 M
 Operating Income -17.66 M
 Interest Income 23.3 M
 Interest Expense 5.1 M
 Net Interest Income 16.6 M
 Income Before Tax -2.07 M
 Tax Provision 522.0 K
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -2.59 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -2.59 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.56
 EPS Actual 0.64
 EPS Difference 0.08
 EPS Surprise 14.286 %
 Forward EPS 0.67
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 10.1 B
 Intangible Assets 2.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Total Current Assets 7.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 2.2 B
 Cash 1.1 B
 Net Receivables 41.2 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 33.0 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 5.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 4.4 B
 Net Debt 739.1 M
 Total Debt 1.9 B
 Total Liabilities 6.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.8 B
 Retained Earnings -1.73 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 38.08
 Shares Outstanding 99.967 M
 Revenue Per-Share 4.15
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.9 B
 Enterprise Value 4.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple 119.143
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -29.414 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 11.05 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 798.871
BILL: 119.143
mean: 69.158
median: 61.115
low: -442.099
 EV/R 11.032
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.66
 Asset To Liability 1.602
 Debt To Capital 0.331
 Debt To Assets 0.186
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.564 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5301.449 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.687
BILL: 0.186
mean: 0.17
median: 0.087
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.496
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.156 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5558.79 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.989
BILL: 0.496
mean: 0.199
median: 0.147
low: -1.778
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.295
Price To Book QoQ 0.087 %
Price To Book YoY -42.932 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 39.175
mean: 12.165
median: 9.178
BILL: 1.295
low: -16.001
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 77.04
Price To Earnings QoQ -104.685 %
Price To Earnings YoY -49.113 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 522.411
mean: 128.513
median: 84.43
BILL: 77.04
low: -185.3
 PE/G Ratio 15.665
 Price To Sales (P/S) 11.886
Price To Sales QoQ -6.35 %
Price To Sales YoY -50.139 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 101.971
median: 44.141
mean: 43.853
BILL: 11.886
low: 4.135
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 77.109
Forward PE/G 15.679
Forward P/S -1.837
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 6.325
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.041
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.47 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.576 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.373
median: 0.125
mean: 0.124
BILL: 0.041
low: 0.0
 Receivables Turnover 11.318
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.832 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.028 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA BILL: 11.318
high: 4.512
mean: 1.584
median: 1.485
low: 0.601
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 8.062
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 0.927
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -113.22 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 113.407
BILL: 0.927
mean: -54.259
median: -67.075
low: -67.09
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.143
 CapEx To Revenue -0.034
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.863
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.6 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.6 B
 Invested Capital 5.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.2 B
 Net Working Capital 2.9 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.506
 Current Ratio 1.654
Current Ratio QoQ -1.233 %
Current Ratio YoY -0.348 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.255
BILL: 1.654
median: 1.386
mean: 1.34
low: 0.466
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 49.149
 Cost Of Debt 0.21 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.593
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 1.816 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -92.846 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 147.069
median: 66.552
mean: 48.731
BILL: 0.593
low: -110.193
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.005
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 7.136
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.244 %
 Revenue Growth 4.783 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 47.943 %
Revenue Growth YoY 317.729 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 14.586 %
BILL: 4.783 %
mean: 4.639 %
median: 4.635 %
low: -6.711 %
 Earnings Growth 4.918 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -104.655 %
Earnings Growth YoY -144.262 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 100.0 %
mean: 14.539 %
BILL: 4.918 %
median: 3.226 %
low: -128.333 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 79.842 %
Gross Margin QoQ -0.869 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.188 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 91.096 %
BILL: 79.842 %
mean: 70.116 %
median: 68.036 %
low: 40.427 %
 EBIT Margin 0.725 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -26.768 %
EBIT Margin YoY -93.12 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 60.268 %
median: 60.268 %
mean: 48.259 %
BILL: 0.725 %
low: -44.038 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -4.26 %
Return On Sales QoQ 42.285 %
Return On Sales YoY -140.425 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 47.094 %
median: 47.094 %
mean: 37.243 %
BILL: -4.26 %
low: -31.502 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 91.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.849 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 12.882 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 131.125 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.753 %
BILL: 1.849 %
median: 0.164 %
mean: 0.143 %
low: -1.998 %
 Free Cash Growth 10.784 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -46.42 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -170.831 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 403.227 %
BILL: 10.784 %
mean: -34.195 %
median: -77.08 %
low: -132.549 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -35.214
 Cash Flow Margin 5.256 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -8.422
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.026 %
Return On Assets QoQ -10.345 %
Return On Assets YoY -107.263 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 8.509 %
median: 5.909 %
mean: 4.591 %
BILL: -0.026 %
low: -10.846 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.053 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.001
Return On Equity QoQ -10.526 %
Return On Equity YoY -107.719 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.344
median: 0.098
mean: 0.095
BILL: -0.001
low: -0.138
 DuPont ROE -0.067 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.042 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -22.222 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -102.397 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 13.9 %
median: 9.056 %
mean: 7.204 %
BILL: 0.042 %
low: -11.474 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect choppy price action driven by elevated short-term volatility and mixed technicals. The emerging trend strength (ADX ~22) sits against DI signals that favor sellers and momentum indicators that recently peaked and reversed. If operational improvements and margin recovery continue to show in upcoming reports, fundamental thrust may re-anchor multiples upward; however, momentum indicators and price below major moving averages suggest corrective pressure could continue near term. Positioning should account for heightened 42-day beta and the modest MRO overvaluation signal pointing to mean reversion toward fair value.

About Bill Holdings, Inc.

BILL Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BILL) designs comprehensive financial technology solutions tailored for small and midsize businesses worldwide. Based in San Jose, California, the company develops a robust platform that streamlines accounts payable and receivable processes, enhancing business transactions and connectivity with suppliers and customers. BILL Holdings leverages automation to eliminate traditional expense reports and optimize cash flow management, thereby increasing operational efficiency. Their cloud-based payments and spend management tools deliver a seamless user experience, supported by extensive onboarding, implementation, and ongoing support services. By integrating advanced artificial intelligence, BILL Holdings’ platform strengthens relationships between suppliers and clients, making it an essential tool for accounting firms, financial institutions, and software companies. Since its founding in 2006, the company has consistently advanced its offerings, rebranding from Bill.com Holdings, Inc. to BILL Holdings, Inc. in February 2023, to better reflect its innovative approach and growth in the dynamic fintech industry.



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