FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Signals Near-Term Pullback Despite WMDST Undervaluation

Momentum indicators show strong directional strength, while valuation metrics and cash generation support a below-market valuation; near-term price consolidation appears likely. The technical setup implies heightened short-term volatility against a fundamentally supported enterprise.

Recent News

On November 24, 2025 FedEx published service updates announcing rate revisions effective January 5, 2026 and expansion of zone structures for certain global pricing programs. On January 22, 2026 the company posted a regulatory alert that U.S. Customs and Border Protection would begin issuing refunds electronically via ACH. On February 19, 2026 FedEx announced plans to invest in a large automated air cargo hub at Navi Mumbai International Airport to expand capacity in India.

Technical Analysis

ADX sits at 49.99, indicating a very strong underlying trend; that strength increases the chance of pronounced directional moves over the coming weeks.

Directional indicators display a conflict: DI+ at 42.32 shows a recent peak-and-reversal, which signals bearish pressure, while DI- at 8.62 trends lower, a bullish mechanical read; the net implication projects elevated trend tension that often resolves into a short consolidation or corrective leg.

MACD reads 18.80 and rises above its signal line at 16.18, a bullish momentum confirmation that supports continuation of the broader up-leg despite short-term exhaustion signals.

MRO stands at 22.93 and is increasing; that positive value indicates the market price trades above the oscillator’s target, which implies a higher probability of downward adjustment toward fair-value levels if momentum stalls.

RSI at 73.91 and rising places price in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a pause or pullback in the near term even as momentum indicators remain constructive.

Price exceeds short- and long-term averages: close $383.08 sits above the 20-day average ($359.21), 50-day average ($314.41), and 200-day average ($254.31), reinforcing that trend remains upward-biased but susceptible to mean reversion; Bollinger upper bands and a super-trend lower support level near $358 suggest defined short-term amplitude for any correction.

 


Fundamental Analysis

WMDST values the stock as under-valued and that view rests on operating performance and cash generation. Operating income $1.621B and EBIT $1.621B produce an EBIT margin of 6.91%, up 18.37% quarter-over-quarter and up 10.11% year-over-year; the EBIT margin sits below the industry peer median (7.161%) but above the industry peer mean (5.821%), indicating margin performance slightly lagging top peers while outperforming the peer average.

Total revenue $23.469B with reported revenue growth of 5.51%; revenue growth quarter-over-quarter reads 49.99% and year-over-year 206.29% as reported, showing a material recent uplift in topline activity. Gross margin equals 21.87% and improved both QoQ and YoY, supporting higher operating leverage.

Net income $956M and EPS $4.82 exceeded the estimate $4.11 by $0.71, an EPS surprise of 17.28%, signaling stronger-than-expected bottom-line delivery for the period. Free cash flow $1.194B yields 1.96%, modestly above the industry peer mean of 1.64% and supporting distributable cash and capital investment.

Leverage metrics present dual signals: debt-to-assets at 42.35% aligns near the industry peer mean, while debt-to-EBITDA at 14.04x indicates heavy leverage relative to operating earnings. Interest coverage of 16.89x provides substantial buffer versus peers, reducing immediate solvency concern despite elevated gross indebtedness.

Return metrics show ROE 3.40% and ROA 1.08%, both below the industry peer mean levels, reflecting capital intensity and recent earnings growth dynamics. Cash and short-term investments $6.57B and operating cash flow $1.951B sustain liquidity; current ratio 1.27 and quick ratio 1.23 provide modest working-capital cover.

Valuation snapshot: P/E ~53.7, forward P/E ~47.1, price-to-book ~2.16 and enterprise multiple ~34.23. The market pricing places upside potential in consensus high-case targets but the mean price target ($372.39) sits slightly below the current close. WMDST’s under-valued determination reflects cash-flow strength, free-cash-flow yield above peer mean, and operating improvement offsetting elevated leverage and a rich trailing P/E.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-11-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-12-18
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-03-19
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 6.2 B
 Operating Cash Flow 2.0 B
 Capital Expenditures -757.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.18 B
 Dividends Paid -342.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 404.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 6.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 23.5 B
 Forward Revenue 7.8 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 18.3 B
 Depreciation 1.1 B
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.1 B
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 21.8 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 5.1 B
 EBITDA 2.7 B
 EBIT 1.6 B
 Operating Income 1.6 B
 Interest Income -135.00 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income -135.00 M
 Income Before Tax 1.3 B
 Tax Provision 333.0 M
 Tax Rate 25.8 %
 Net Income 956.0 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 956.0 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 4.11
 EPS Actual 4.82
 EPS Difference 0.71
 EPS Surprise 17.275 %
 Forward EPS 5.41
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 89.2 B
 Intangible Assets 6.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Total Current Assets 20.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 6.6 B
 Cash 6.6 B
 Net Receivables 12.2 B
 Inventory 631.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 4.4 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 4.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 901.0 M
 Total Current Liabilities 16.2 B
 Net Debt 14.6 B
 Total Debt 37.8 B
 Total Liabilities 61.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 28.1 B
 Retained Earnings 42.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 119.74
 Shares Outstanding 235.000 M
 Revenue Per-Share 99.87
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 60.9 B
 Enterprise Value 92.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 34.234
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -4.1 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 32.631 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 111.108
median: 75.058
mean: 59.091
FDX: 34.234
low: -219.351
 EV/R 3.922
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.169
 Asset To Liability 1.461
 Debt To Capital 0.573
 Debt To Assets 0.423
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.222 %
Debt To Assets YoY 6010.823 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.554
median: 0.499
FDX: 0.423
mean: 0.396
low: 0.204
 Debt To Equity 1.342
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.676 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5899.464 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.844
median: 2.198
mean: 1.61
FDX: 1.342
low: 0.401
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.163
Price To Book QoQ 12.103 %
Price To Book YoY -15.148 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.221
median: 9.141
mean: 8.044
FDX: 2.163
low: 1.334
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 53.73
Price To Earnings QoQ -9.372 %
Price To Earnings YoY -22.289 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 219.55
mean: 119.897
FDX: 53.73
median: 53.302
low: -54.552
 PE/G Ratio 2.079
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.593
Price To Sales QoQ 7.663 %
Price To Sales YoY -15.536 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 8.459
mean: 5.566
median: 4.821
FDX: 2.593
low: 0.815
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.12
Forward PE/G 1.823
Forward P/S 7.985
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.519
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.264
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 3.586 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.761
mean: 0.46
FDX: 0.264
median: 0.245
low: 0.194
 Receivables Turnover 1.983
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.982 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -5.013 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.301
FDX: 1.983
median: 1.797
mean: 1.717
low: 1.261
 Inventory Turnover 29.696
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.031 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 5.116 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA FDX: 29.696
high: 13.044
median: 5.965
mean: 5.753
low: 1.04
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 46.025
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 26.132
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -9.379 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -2.26 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 116.203
FDX: 26.132
mean: 25.978
low: 25.694
median: 25.694
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.287
 CapEx To Revenue -0.032
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.709
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 48.4 B
 Net Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Invested Capital 49.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 21.5 B
 Net Working Capital 4.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.405
 Current Ratio 1.274
Current Ratio QoQ 2.224 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.449 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.592
FDX: 1.274
mean: 1.233
median: 1.048
low: 0.89
 Quick Ratio 1.235
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.295 %
Quick Ratio YoY 3.924 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.347
FDX: 1.235
median: 0.689
mean: 0.664
low: 0.339
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 14.045
 Cost Of Debt 0.188 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 16.885
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 24.884 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 17.634 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA FDX: 16.885
high: 12.233
mean: 6.284
median: 2.77
low: -4.667
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.111
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 23.104
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 2.795
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.358
 Dividend Rate 1.46
 Dividend Yield 0.006
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.865 %
 Revenue Growth 5.507 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 4999.074 %
Revenue Growth YoY 206.285 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA FDX: 5.507 %
high: 3.378 %
mean: -3.702 %
median: -4.737 %
low: -5.42 %
 Earnings Growth 25.849 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -170.046 %
Earnings Growth YoY 106.792 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 237.5 %
FDX: 25.849 %
mean: 1.617 %
median: -53.165 %
low: -75.342 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 21.867 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.625 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.903 %
Gross Margin IPRWA FDX: 21.867 %
high: 19.987 %
mean: 11.678 %
median: 11.586 %
low: 8.179 %
 EBIT Margin 6.907 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 18.372 %
EBIT Margin YoY 10.107 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 8.692 %
median: 7.161 %
FDX: 6.907 %
mean: 5.821 %
low: -2.859 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 6.907 %
Return On Sales QoQ 18.372 %
Return On Sales YoY 10.107 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 9.099 %
median: 8.056 %
FDX: 6.907 %
mean: 6.327 %
low: -5.314 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.2 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.962 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -3.824 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 164.777 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.561 %
FDX: 1.962 %
mean: 1.639 %
median: 1.536 %
low: -0.372 %
 Free Cash Growth 9.241 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 105.675 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -51.486 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 1091.402 %
FDX: 9.241 %
median: -44.186 %
mean: -96.354 %
low: -504.706 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.249
 Cash Flow Margin 7.648 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.878
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.077 %
Return On Assets QoQ 15.064 %
Return On Assets YoY 25.087 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.651 %
mean: 1.411 %
FDX: 1.077 %
median: 0.802 %
low: -1.42 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.222 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.034
Return On Equity QoQ 14.493 %
Return On Equity YoY 21.321 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.074
mean: 0.048
median: 0.043
FDX: 0.034
low: -0.03
 DuPont ROE 3.419 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.438 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 26.452 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -110.397 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.058 %
mean: 2.96 %
FDX: 2.438 %
median: 1.946 %
low: -1.948 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated volatility with two competing forces: strong directional momentum (ADX, MACD positive) supports continuation, while overbought breadth (RSI) and MRO above zero increase probability of a corrective consolidation. The most probable near-term path calls for a short consolidation or pullback that tests short-term support near the 20-day average before momentum either reasserts or yields to deeper mean reversion. Trading ranges likely tighten around the current band defined by the 20-day average and the recent highs; monitor momentum cross signals for directional resolution rather than relying on implied target levels.

About FedEx Corporation

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) delivers comprehensive logistics and transportation solutions worldwide. Established in 1971 and based in Memphis, Tennessee, FedEx organizes its operations into distinct segments to address diverse shipping needs. FedEx Express provides swift air and ground delivery services, optimizing solutions for time-sensitive shipments across the globe. FedEx Ground emphasizes efficient delivery of small packages, offering cost-effective options for both businesses and individual customers. In the freight domain, FedEx Freight manages less-than-truckload (LTL) services, ensuring precise and careful handling of larger shipments. Beyond transportation, FedEx Services supports clients with a range of offerings in sales, marketing, IT, and customer service, enhancing the overall customer experience. The company also strengthens supply chain management through air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and third-party logistics services. FedEx’s commitment to reliable service and customer satisfaction underpins its role in connecting businesses and consumers in an increasingly interconnected global economy. By continually adapting to the evolving demands of commerce, FedEx maintains its position as a key player in the logistics and transportation industry.



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