Recent News
Nov. 14, 2025 — Texas announced a $936M investment for a new NRG natural‑gas plant in Baytown intended to add 721 MW to the ERCOT grid and target operations by summer 2028. Nov. 20, 2025 — NRG received a $370M loan from the Texas Energy Fund to expand its Greens Bayou complex with a 455‑MW unit slated to enter service by 2028; the awards increase NRG’s total TxEF funding to more than $1.1B and advance multiple Houston‑area projects.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators: DI+ exhibits a dip‑and‑reversal and DI‑ shows a peak‑and‑reversal, which together indicate a bullish shift in directional pressure while ADX at 12.21 signals no strong trend; the implication: directional bias favors upside but lacks trend strength.
MACD and signal: MACD shows a dip‑and‑reversal and sits above the signal line (MACD ≈ 0.0 vs signal −1.4), which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover and supports near‑term positive momentum.
MRO and target gap: MRO at 19.2 (positive) indicates price sits above the model target and therefore carries potential for a corrective pullback; the magnitude implies a material short‑term mean reversion risk even as momentum reads bullish.
RSI and short‑term momentum: RSI 49.63 with a dip‑and‑reversal suggests recent buying pressure re-emerged from a pullback; RSI sits near neutral, supporting limited upside room before overbought conditions.
Price versus moving averages and bands: Last close $161.80 trades above the 20‑day ($153.22), 50‑day ($156.52) and 200‑day ($156.22) averages, and sits just above the 1x upper Bollinger band ($159.01) but below the 2x band ($164.81). That alignment shows price leadership in the short term while the proximity to the upper band and positive MRO indicate vulnerability to a retracement.
Volume and volatility context: 10‑day average volume around 2.10M versus last session ~2.52M shows modestly elevated participation; 42‑day beta 1.85 and 52‑week beta 1.73 reflect above‑market volatility that magnifies short‑term moves.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability and earnings: Trailing EBIT $425M and EBITDA $785M yield an EBIT margin of 5.57%, down 76.22% QoQ and down 1.50% YoY. The EBIT margin sits well below the industry peer mean (≈29.80%) and median (≈22.09%) but above the industry peer low (≈−7.92%), signaling operating profitability that lags peer averages despite positive absolute operating income.
Revenue and cash flow: Total revenue $7,635M with YoY revenue growth 56.78% and QoQ change −1.62% shows strong year‑over‑year top‑line expansion. Operating cash flow $484M and free cash flow $231M produce a free cash flow yield of 0.74% and cash flow to earnings of 156.57%, indicating cash generation exceeds reported earnings but yields remain modest relative to market expectations.
Leverage and coverage: Total debt $12.11B, net debt $11.20B, debt‑to‑assets 50.52% (slightly above the industry peer mean of ≈43.72%), and debt‑to‑EBITDA ~15.4x point to elevated leverage. Interest coverage about 2.27x falls below the industry peer mean (~4.17x), highlighting constrained coverage capacity and higher sensitivity to rate or earnings pressure.
Capital efficiency and returns: Return on equity roughly 11.52% lags the industry peer mean (~14.59%); return on invested capital near 2.05% shows limited capital returns, and asset turnover 0.318 sits above the noted industry peer mean (≈0.0957), reflecting revenue scale on invested assets but limited margins.
Valuation and analyst signals: Trailing P/E ≈58.4x and enterprise multiple ≈54.24x sit alongside a price‑to‑book of 23.64x, which lies well above the industry peer mean (≈1.51) and median (≈2.06). Forward metrics show forward P/E ≈89.57x. WMDST values the stock as over‑valued; the combination of high market multiples and heavy leverage explains that determination despite recent operational scale and cash generation.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-06 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-05 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 643.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 484.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -253.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -170.00 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -119.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 442.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 1.1 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 7.6 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 5.8 B | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 6.2 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 223.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 223.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 7.2 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 1.4 B | |
| EBITDA | $ 785.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 425.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 422.0 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 187.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -187.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 238.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 86.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 36.1 % | |
| Net Income | $ 152.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 152.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 2.13 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 2.78 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.65 | |
| EPS Surprise | 30.516 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 2.41 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 24.0 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 7.4 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -5.48 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 8.1 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 732.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 732.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 3.3 B | |
| Inventory | $ 452.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 1.5 B | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 2.3 B | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 777.0 M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 7.7 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 11.2 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 12.1 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 22.0 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.3 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 2.0 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 6.87 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 192.255 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 39.71 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 31.2 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 42.6 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 54.241 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | -53.867 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -246.263 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 109.499 NRG: 54.241 median: 46.455 mean: 40.94 low: -34.347 |
|
| EV/R | 5.577 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 18.16 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.09 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.902 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.505 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 9.485 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 4543.75 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.806 NRG: 0.505 median: 0.46 mean: 0.437 low: 0.127 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 9.175 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 35.198 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 6549.996 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 9.553 NRG: 9.175 median: 6.402 mean: 4.76 low: -3.563 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 23.636 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 33.867 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 152.616 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | NRG: 23.636 high: 5.152 median: 2.06 mean: 1.512 low: 0.007 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 58.376 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -32.1 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 29.906 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 289.438 median: 111.706 mean: 89.868 NRG: 58.376 low: -219.064 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 0.962 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 4.086 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -4.767 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 68.695 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 29.805 median: 13.319 mean: 11.836 NRG: 4.086 low: 0.052 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 89.572 | |
| Forward PE/G | 1.476 | |
| Forward P/S | 7.492 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -647.642 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.318 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 15.681 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 8.841 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | NRG: 0.318 high: 0.131 median: 0.129 mean: 0.096 low: 0.016 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.261 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 16.299 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 4.248 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 5.725 mean: 2.397 NRG: 2.261 median: 2.182 low: 0.964 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 13.823 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 1.172 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 11.037 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | NRG: 13.823 high: 7.4 mean: 3.231 median: 3.127 low: 0.79 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 40.354 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 8.257 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -55.576 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -26.765 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 78.66 median: 29.967 mean: 15.133 NRG: 8.257 low: -80.991 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 18.577 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.033 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.135 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 13.1 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 13.3 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 13.3 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -5.48 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 411.0 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.095 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.053 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 12.86 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -10.12 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 4.66 mean: 1.218 NRG: 1.053 median: 0.995 low: 0.087 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.995 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | 12.788 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -9.442 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 1.718 NRG: 0.995 mean: 0.99 median: 0.88 low: 0.389 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 15.428 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.029 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 2.273 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -6828.034 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -160.436 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 9.262 median: 4.537 mean: 4.165 NRG: 2.273 low: -4.163 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.031 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 39.416 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 1.277 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.783 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.62 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.004 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -0.486 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 13.279 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -161.789 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 56.777 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 69.604 % mean: 24.364 % median: 16.965 % NRG: 13.279 % low: -12.805 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | 60.694 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -278.675 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -239.143 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 116.049 % median: 116.049 % NRG: 60.694 % mean: 3.213 % low: -404.63 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 18.258 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 10.762 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -8324.324 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 84.539 % mean: 42.496 % median: 39.147 % NRG: 18.258 % low: 11.262 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 5.566 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -7621.622 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -150.189 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 105.059 % mean: 29.795 % median: 22.088 % NRG: 5.566 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 5.527 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 766.301 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -149.838 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 51.787 % mean: 23.645 % median: 20.962 % NRG: 5.527 % low: -7.915 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 231.0 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.74 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 209.623 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -247.117 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 26.2 % median: 1.524 % NRG: 0.74 % mean: -1.303 % low: -29.332 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 234.783 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -363.405 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -314.859 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 471.338 % NRG: 234.783 % mean: 39.716 % median: 24.568 % low: -559.139 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 1.52 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 3.117 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.566 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.03 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.633 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -249.292 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -120.419 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 4.079 % mean: 1.769 % median: 1.712 % NRG: 0.633 % low: -0.7 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 2.614 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.115 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -281.367 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -128.074 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.238 median: 0.165 mean: 0.146 NRG: 0.115 low: -0.156 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 10.278 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 2.049 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -7688.889 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -97.137 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 5.671 % median: 4.194 % mean: 3.262 % NRG: 2.049 % low: -0.08 % |
|