Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Positions For Margin Recovery As Operational Headwinds Ease

Centene shows early signs of margin stabilization while technical momentum remains mixed; fundamental metrics and guidance point toward improved earnings power even as price action reflects short-term selling pressure.

Recent News

On February 6, 2026 the company reported fourth-quarter and full-year results and issued 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of greater than $3.00; in December 2025 Centene signed a definitive agreement to divest the remaining Magellan Health businesses and recorded related non‑cash impairment charges, and in November 2025 the Centene Foundation and several subsidiaries announced contributions to address food‑security disruptions.

Technical Analysis

The directional indicators show an emerging trend environment: ADX at 23.83 signals trend formation rather than a strong trend, while DI+ at 21.73 decreasing and DI- at 36.10 increasing indicate directional pressure favors sellers; that combination implies near‑term downside risk that could slow margin recovery sentiment unless DI+ reverses.

MACD sits at -0.55 and declines versus a MACD signal of 0.34, producing negative and falling momentum; the MACD below its signal line confirms bearish momentum and argues the market requires a momentum reversal before sustained upside becomes likely.

MRO reads -21.07 and is decreasing, which means price sits below WMDST’s target with growing magnitude—this suggests a mean‑reversion technical potential where price may gravitate upward toward fair value over time, providing counterbalance to current bearish momentum.

Price relationships reinforce the mixed picture: last close $38.04 below the 200‑day average $40.61 and below the 20‑day average $42.58; the 12‑day EMA $41.49 and 26‑day EMA $42.34 both trend lower. Bollinger band lower bounds (1× at $39.60, 2× at $36.63) place the market near the lower band area, consistent with MRO’s below‑target signal but also consistent with short‑term selling pressure.

RSI at 52.28 and declining shows neutral momentum that recently tipped lower; low 42‑ and 52‑week betas (0.08 and 0.16) indicate muted volatility relative to the market, so follow‑through moves may be smaller in magnitude even if directional.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Earnings and guidance drive the fundamental narrative. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter equaled $(1.19) versus an estimate of $(1.22), producing a positive EPS surprise of approximately 2.46%. The firm reported a GAAP diluted loss per share of $(2.24) for Q4 and a full‑year GAAP loss per share of $(13.53); management guided 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to greater than $3.00. Membership totals and premium growth in Medicare PDP and Marketplace contributed to revenue expansion for the year ending 2025.

Key ratios: trailing P/E stands at -34.63, reflecting reported GAAP losses; this contrasts with the industry peer mean P/E of 93.94 and industry peer median P/E of 48.84, placing Centene well below peer multiples on a trailing basis. Forward EPS sits near $1.00 with a forward P/E of 37.67, which sits below the industry peer mean forward P/E of 61.59 and below the industry peer median forward P/E of 44.72, indicating that forward expectations price in material improvement versus peers.

PEG metrics look compressed: PEG ratio 0.102 and PEG QoQ change of -160.35% (PEGratioQoQ = -1.60346) with a PEGratio YoY change of -106.58% (PEGratioYoY = -1.06582). Forward PEG shows -0.111. Use these values cautiously; the low PEG relative to the industry peer mean PEG of -0.8727 and median of -2.34449 reflects a distorted earnings base and strong forward growth assumptions embedded in consensus.

Operational efficiency and liquidity markers: cash conversion cycle at 0.0 days (above the industry peer mean of approximately -1.55 days), cost of debt at roughly 0.96%, and total cash flow provided by operations of $437 million in Q4 and $5,088 million for the full year. Revenue growth on the provided horizon registered flat to negative in the QoQ/YoY inputs; reported premium and service revenues increased year over year driven by Medicare and Marketplace segments. These operational flows support the company’s stated path to margin improvement but reflect continued pressure from higher medical costs in parts of the portfolio.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under‑valued on its current fundamentals and WMDST forward targets. Trailing GAAP metrics remain depressed by 2025 impairments and losses, while forward EPS and forward P/E suggest the market can re‑rate the company if management delivers the guided margin improvement.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-12-31
REPORT DATE: 2026-02-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-05-08
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow
 Operating Cash Flow
 Capital Expenditures
 Change In Working Capital
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue
 Forward Revenue
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax
 Tax Provision
 Tax Rate
 Net Income
 Net Income From Continuing Operations
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -1.22
 EPS Actual -1.19
 EPS Difference 0.03
 EPS Surprise 2.459 %
 Forward EPS 1.00
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash
 Net Receivables
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt
 Total Debt
 Total Liabilities
EQUITY
 Total Equity
 Retained Earnings
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share
 Shares Outstanding
 Revenue Per-Share
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization
 Enterprise Value
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity
 Asset To Liability
 Debt To Capital
 Debt To Assets
Debt To Assets QoQ
Debt To Assets YoY
Debt To Assets IPRWA
 Debt To Equity
Debt To Equity QoQ
Debt To Equity YoY
Debt To Equity IPRWA
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B)
Price To Book QoQ
Price To Book YoY
Price To Book IPRWA
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -34.628
Price To Earnings QoQ -149.448 %
Price To Earnings YoY -143.95 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 104.977
mean: 93.944
median: 48.838
low: 33.87
CNC: -34.628
 PE/G Ratio 0.102
 Price To Sales (P/S)
Price To Sales QoQ
Price To Sales YoY
Price To Sales IPRWA
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 37.668
Forward PE/G -0.111
Forward P/S
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 0.0
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -100.0 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 33.528
CNC: 0.0
mean: -1.551
median: -7.057
low: -17.884
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue
 CapEx To Depreciation
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital
 Net Invested Capital
 Invested Capital -1.65 B
 Net Tangible Assets
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 0.961 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate
 Revenue Growth 0.0 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.0 %
Revenue Growth YoY -100.0 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 4.954 %
median: 2.916 %
mean: 2.509 %
CNC: 0.0 %
low: -1.677 %
 Earnings Growth -338.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -18.061 %
Earnings Growth YoY 567.76 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 40.152 %
median: -5.274 %
mean: -18.86 %
low: -44.776 %
CNC: -338.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
 Free Cash Flow Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA
 Free Cash Growth
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income
 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.0
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added
 Return On Assets (ROA)
Return On Assets QoQ
Return On Assets YoY
Return On Assets IPRWA
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE)
Return On Equity QoQ
Return On Equity YoY
Return On Equity IPRWA
 DuPont ROE
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a mixed, range‑oriented market with downward technical momentum offset by fundamental signals that imply potential mean reversion. Momentum indicators currently favor sellers, so price may test lower support near recent lows unless MACD and DI+ stabilize; however, MRO’s negative reading signals a technical setup for a rally if buying interest returns. Swing traders should watch for a clear MACD turn or a DI+ dip‑and‑reverse as confirmation of renewed bullish momentum, while deteriorating DI‑ and continuing MACD declines would favor shorter corrective moves and lateral action.

About Centene Corporation

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) delivers comprehensive healthcare services, primarily targeting under-insured and uninsured populations across the United States. Established in 1984 and based in St. Louis, Missouri, Centene develops a wide array of health plans through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial segments. The Medicaid segment offers expanded health plans, children’s health insurance programs, and long-term services. In the Medicare segment, Centene addresses the needs of seniors with special needs plans, Medicare supplements, and prescription drug plans. The Commercial segment provides marketplace insurance products for individuals and businesses, ensuring extensive access to healthcare services. Centene actively participates in government healthcare contracts, including the TRICARE program for military families, highlighting its dedication to diverse communities. The company also manages clinical healthcare services, pharmacies, and provides dental and speech therapy, promoting a holistic healthcare approach. By collaborating with primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers, Centene aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care to millions of Americans, emphasizing innovation and community well-being.



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