Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE:HHH) Prices $1B Senior Notes, Prepares Redemption; Valuation Over-Valued

Howard Hughes moved to reprice long-dated debt with a $1.0 billion senior notes offering while scheduling fourth-quarter results and a conference call; the current valuation as determined by WMDST stands over-valued.

Recent News

On February 4, 2026 the company priced $500 million of 2032 notes at 5.875% and $500 million of 2034 notes at 6.125%, and announced intent to use proceeds to redeem all outstanding 5.375% senior notes due 2028 on February 19, 2026. The company previously announced on January 8, 2026 that it will release 2025 fourth-quarter results on February 19, 2026 and host a conference call on February 20, 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show a near standoff: DI+ at 21.09 with a dip & reversal and DI- at 21.08 with a peak & reversal, which together imply a short-term bullish tilt but without decisive direction given practically identical readings; ADX at 9.45 confirms no trend and therefore limited conviction for follow-through.

MACD sits negative at -0.29 with a peak & reversal and below its signal line (-0.26), which signals bearish momentum in the oscillator and reduces the odds of a sustained upside move absent fresh buying pressure tied to fundamentals or news.

MRO registers 4.58 and carries a dip & reversal label; the positive MRO indicates the market price sits above the WMDST target, implying downside pressure should price mean-revert toward valuation levels.

RSI near neutral at 49.27 with a peak & reversal shows recent exhaustion and suggests little momentum bias; price trades essentially at the 20-day average ($81.71) and just below the 50-day average ($82.85), while remaining above the 200-day average ($76.38), a configuration consistent with a range-bound market that lacks sustained directional momentum.

Ichimoku cloud levels (Senkou A $83.56, Senkou B $84.27) sit above price ($81.77), creating overhead resistance; Bollinger bands place price between the 1x bands (upper $83.15, lower $80.26), consistent with low volatility and a narrow trading range. Collectively, technicals point to mixed-to-mildly bearish near-term price pressure with limited conviction—consistent with an over-valued equity that lacks trending support.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: EBIT totaled $202,156,000 and EBITDA $248,652,000, producing an EBIT margin of 51.80%, well above the industry peer mean of 4.95% and industry peer median of 3.00%, indicating strong operating conversion on reported results. QoQ the EBIT margin expanded by approximately 3.86 percentage points and registered a 12.59% YoY improvement in margin performance.

Top line and earnings: Total revenue reached $390,235,000 with YoY revenue growth of 15.16% and a QoQ increase of 60.57%, showing meaningful sales acceleration. Reported EPS equaled $2.02 versus an estimate of $1.53, a positive EPS surprise of roughly 32.0% (EPS beat of $0.49), while forward EPS sits at $0.255 producing a forward P/E of 296.17—a material disconnect between trailing profitability and muted near-term forward earnings expectations.

Cash flow and liquidity: Operating cash flow totaled $149,758,000 and free cash flow reached $149,082,000, yielding a free cash flow yield of 3.20%, above the industry peer mean of 1.63%. Cash and short-term investments of $1,456,934,000 produce a cash ratio of 2.43 and a current ratio of 4.53, reflecting substantial near-term liquidity.

Leverage and coverage: Total debt stands at $5,292,622,000 with net debt of $3,830,435,000 and a debt-to-EBITDA multiple of 21.29, signalling very high leverage on reported EBITDA; debt-to-equity equals 140.48% while interest coverage of 4.61 provides moderate earnings coverage of interest expense. The recent senior notes offering and planned redemption target longer-term maturity repricing but leave leverage metrics elevated relative to cash flow.

Efficiency and returns: Asset turnover remains low at 0.037 (below the industry peer mean of 0.1926), while return on equity registers 3.17% and return on assets 1.14%, indicating capital-light but low-velocity asset deployment. Revenue growth and strong margins support cash generation, yet returns on capital remain modest versus absolute valuation metrics.

Valuation summary: Enterprise multiple of 34.18 and EV-to-revenue and P/E levels reflect rich market pricing; given the company’s balance of high reported margins and cash balances against elevated leverage, WMDST values the stock as over-valued. That classification aligns with a stretched forward earnings multiple and a modest free-cash yield relative to the capital structure.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-10
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-09
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.8 B
 Operating Cash Flow 149.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -676.00 K
 Change In Working Capital 133.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 175.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 2.0 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 390.2 M
 Forward Revenue 12.4 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 139.9 M
 Depreciation 41.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 46.5 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 215.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 250.3 M
 EBITDA 248.7 M
 EBIT 202.2 M
 Operating Income 175.1 M
 Interest Income 15.3 M
 Interest Expense 43.9 M
 Net Interest Income -28.57 M
 Income Before Tax 158.3 M
 Tax Provision 38.9 M
 Tax Rate 24.6 %
 Net Income 119.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 119.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.53
 EPS Actual 2.02
 EPS Difference 0.49
 EPS Surprise 32.026 %
 Forward EPS 0.26
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 10.7 B
 Intangible Assets 32.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 3.7 B
 Total Current Assets 2.7 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.5 B
 Cash 1.5 B
 Net Receivables 100.9 M
 Inventory 370.0 K
 Long-Term Investments 28.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 30.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 599.9 M
 Net Debt 3.8 B
 Total Debt 5.3 B
 Total Liabilities 6.9 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.8 B
 Retained Earnings -68.10 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 63.44
 Shares Outstanding 59.387 M
 Revenue Per-Share 6.57
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 4.7 B
 Enterprise Value 8.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 34.176
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -69.275 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -22.879 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 230.411
mean: 79.269
median: 52.412
HHH: 34.176
low: -130.519
 EV/R 21.776
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.839
 Asset To Liability 1.559
 Debt To Capital 0.584
 Debt To Assets 0.495
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.556 %
Debt To Assets YoY -11.954 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.393
HHH: 0.495
mean: 0.234
median: 0.178
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 1.405
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.089 %
Debt To Equity YoY -30.764 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 6.25
HHH: 1.405
mean: 0.709
median: 0.311
low: -2.271
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.237
Price To Book QoQ 6.351 %
Price To Book YoY -13.042 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 9.572
median: 3.633
mean: 3.039
HHH: 1.237
low: -2.525
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 38.864
Price To Earnings QoQ -112.318 %
Price To Earnings YoY -23.542 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 359.312
mean: 116.889
median: 96.403
HHH: 38.864
low: -207.306
 PE/G Ratio -0.038
 Price To Sales (P/S) 11.947
Price To Sales QoQ -26.505 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.055 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 42.124
mean: 12.846
HHH: 11.947
median: 4.502
low: 0.022
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 296.171
Forward PE/G -0.291
Forward P/S 377.125
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 12.65
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.037
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 39.565 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 9.902 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.542
mean: 0.193
median: 0.19
HHH: 0.037
low: 0.002
 Receivables Turnover 3.883
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 48.041 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 12.311 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 30.203
HHH: 3.883
mean: 3.87
median: 3.725
low: 0.428
 Inventory Turnover 349.772
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 49.292 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 30.925 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA HHH: 349.772
high: 45.404
mean: 6.674
median: 1.527
low: 0.003
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 23.5
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 4.079
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -72.696 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -67.777 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 213.002
mean: 12.267
median: 5.125
HHH: 4.079
low: -232.925
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.184
 CapEx To Revenue -0.002
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.016
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 9.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 9.1 B
 Invested Capital 9.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.7 B
 Net Working Capital 2.1 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 2.429
 Current Ratio 4.527
Current Ratio QoQ 23.053 %
Current Ratio YoY 73.056 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.753
HHH: 4.527
mean: 1.978
median: 1.606
low: 0.464
 Quick Ratio 4.527
Quick Ratio QoQ 23.057 %
Quick Ratio YoY 73.09 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA HHH: 4.527
high: 2.062
median: 1.443
mean: 1.353
low: 0.278
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 21.285
 Cost Of Debt 0.629 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 4.61
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 624.577 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 34.135 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 17.743
median: 5.0
mean: 4.883
HHH: 4.61
low: -14.849
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.295
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 19.747
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 3.869 %
 Revenue Growth 49.584 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 60.57 %
Revenue Growth YoY 1516.167 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 59.698 %
HHH: 49.584 %
median: 4.165 %
mean: 2.67 %
low: -61.164 %
 Earnings Growth -1018.182 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 397.251 %
Earnings Growth YoY -511.189 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 161.538 %
median: 10.0 %
mean: 4.128 %
low: -200.0 %
HHH: -1018.182 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 64.148 %
Gross Margin QoQ 12.31 %
Gross Margin YoY 18.291 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 100.0 %
HHH: 64.148 %
mean: 40.257 %
median: 21.408 %
low: -32.26 %
 EBIT Margin 51.804 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 386.194 %
EBIT Margin YoY 12.59 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 72.188 %
HHH: 51.804 %
mean: 4.946 %
median: 3.004 %
low: -58.511 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 44.876 %
Return On Sales QoQ 76.844 %
Return On Sales YoY -2.467 %
Return On Sales IPRWA HHH: 44.876 %
high: 41.794 %
mean: 4.378 %
median: 3.004 %
low: -51.265 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 149.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 3.198 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -23.42 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -52.018 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 19.492 %
HHH: 3.198 %
mean: 1.633 %
median: 1.326 %
low: -6.369 %
 Free Cash Growth -15.809 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -91.15 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -98.946 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 718.027 %
median: 147.517 %
mean: 115.719 %
HHH: -15.809 %
low: -915.652 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.247
 Cash Flow Margin 45.314 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.48
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.139 %
Return On Assets QoQ -1018.548 %
Return On Assets YoY 51.463 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.419 %
HHH: 1.139 %
median: 0.617 %
mean: 0.613 %
low: -1.694 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.002 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.032
Return On Equity QoQ -1052.553 %
Return On Equity YoY 13.978 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.084
HHH: 0.032
mean: 0.02
median: 0.011
low: -0.027
 DuPont ROE 3.225 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.683 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 607.143 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -39.351 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.799 %
HHH: 1.683 %
mean: 1.414 %
median: 0.757 %
low: -3.044 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a narrow, event-driven range over the next six weeks: upcoming fourth-quarter results and the February 19 redemption will drive episodic volatility, but technicals and the low ADX suggest any moves likely remain contained. The balance of a high trailing margin profile, very high debt-to-EBITDA, and an over-valued classification argues for limited upside without demonstrable forward-earnings improvement or a material de-leveraging event; downside risk increases if Q4 guidance or execution disappoints versus current expectations.

About Howard Hughes Corporation

Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE:HHH) develops and manages diverse real estate projects across the United States. Headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the company emphasizes urban planning and community development. Through its Operating Assets segment, Howard Hughes oversees a wide array of properties, including retail, office, and multi-family spaces, designed to meet contemporary living and working standards. The Master Planned Communities segment develops large-scale residential and commercial areas in strategic locations like Las Vegas, Houston, and Phoenix, promoting sustainable and interconnected living environments. In New York City, the Seaport segment revitalizes the historic waterfront, transforming it into a vibrant destination for dining, retail, and entertainment. Howard Hughes’s Strategic Developments segment focuses on creating and redeveloping high-end residential and commercial properties, showcasing architectural excellence and innovative urban design. By integrating modern design with community-centric values, Howard Hughes Corporation shapes the future of real estate development in America.



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