Biglari Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BH) Signals Near-Term Pullback Despite Undervalued Valuation

Insider accumulation and a WMDST valuation point to underlying value, while short-term momentum indicators favor downward pressure. Balance between robust liquidity and weakening momentum will shape the next several weeks.

Recent News

On December 31, 2025 the company announced its 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting set for April 8, 2026. Multiple filings in December 2025 show the chairman/CEO added shares through open-market purchases across early–mid December; additional reports in January 2026 summarized those insider buys. On November 24, 2025 Lion Fund reported purchases of both Class A and Class B shares totaling roughly $799k.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+ / DI-: ADX at 34.74 indicates a strong directional market context. DI+ sits at 30.93 and shows a decreasing trend, which reads bearish for near-term price bias; DI- at 20.14 shows a dip-and-reversal pattern that also signals bearish directional pressure. Together, a strong ADX with falling DI+ and a DI- dip-and-reversal implies momentum currently supports price weakness even as the stock trades below short-term averages.

MACD: MACD at 19.70 sits below its signal line at 24.95 and displays a peak-and-reversal pattern, consistent with falling bullish momentum. That configuration aligns with the directional indicators and implies continued near-term pressure until MACD re-accelerates above its signal line.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO reads 37.58 and shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which indicates price currently stands above its model target and carries medium-to-strong potential to decrease. That divergence between price and target amplifies the bearish bias signaled by MACD and DI readings.

RSI: RSI at 58.5 with a peak-and-reversal trend indicates momentum intensity recently peaked and started to roll over rather than continuing higher. RSI remains outside extreme overbought/oversold levels, so moves can extend in either direction, but the immediate signal complements the bearish momentum picture.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Additional Tools: Current close of $382.08 sits below the 20-day average ($436.37) and the 12-day EMA ($421.54), both showing peak-and-reversal behavior, which supports a short-term negative bias. Price remains above the 50-day ($355.76) and 200-day ($309.83) averages, providing longer-term support levels that could limit declines. Ichimoku readings place price below the Tenkan-sen ($430.72) and slightly below the Kijun-sen ($399.20) while staying above the cloud (Senkou A $314.35 / Senkou B $324.18), indicating short-term weakness inside a longer-term constructive band. Bollinger band placement leaves the stock between the 1x and 2x upper bands, reflecting recent volatility expansion but not an immediate extreme.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability: Net income stands at -$5,291,000 with EBIT at -$5,215,000 and EBITDA at $4,330,000. EBIT margin measures -5.23%, down QoQ by -107.83% and down YoY by -110.52%; the industry peer mean for EBIT margin sits near 12.05% with an industry peer range from -20.91% to 27.788%, placing the company below peer central tendency on operating profitability. Operating margin stands at 9.12% with a QoQ improvement of 47.48% but an YoY decline of -81.66%, reflecting volatile operating leverage across reporting periods.

Revenue and Growth: Total revenue equals $99,738,000 with YoY revenue growth of 8.82% and QoQ change of -114.91%. Revenue per share reads $32.14 and asset turnover registers 10.27%, down QoQ by -13.65% and down YoY by -4.94%, indicating lower sales productivity on existing asset base despite positive YoY top-line expansion.

Liquidity and Cash Flow: Cash equals $272,485,000 and cash plus short-term investments total $369,169,000. Current ratio measures 2.83, quick ratio 2.80, and cash ratio 2.58—liquidity metrics substantially above typical near-term obligations. Operating cash flow improved to an end-period cash flow of $273,196,000 with free cash flow of $22,300,000 and a free cash flow yield of 2.15%, although free cash growth shows YoY contraction of -68.20% and QoQ weakness, signaling lower incremental free cash generation versus prior periods.

Leverage and Capital Structure: Total debt equals $347,168,000 with debt-to-assets at 32.16% and debt-to-equity at 0.60. Debt-to-EBITDA reads about 80.18x, driven by negative EBIT and modest EBITDA relative to debt balances, which elevates leverage sensitivity if operating earnings fail to stabilize. Interest coverage sits negative, reflecting losses at the operating-EBIT level.

Valuation Multiples: Price-to-book equals 1.79x with a P/S of 10.40x and forward P/S near 38.07x. Enterprise multiple registers about 234.41, exceeding the industry peer mean of roughly 131.99 and median around 155.36, which marks a premium on enterprise valuation despite the WMDST assessment. Forward EPS runs negative at -$1.8625 producing a negative forward P/E, consistent with expected near-term EPS losses. Price target mean across analyst views sits near $423.67 versus the close at $382.08.

Valuation Conclusion: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. That judgment reflects balance of substantial liquidity, retained earnings of $640,064,000, and tangible asset base of $504,040,000, offset by negative operating profitability, elevated debt-to-EBITDA sensitivity, and weak free-cash growth.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-07
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-06
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 33.5 M
 Operating Cash Flow
 Capital Expenditures -8.95 M
 Change In Working Capital 9.3 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 239.7 M
 End Period Cash Flow 273.2 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 99.7 M
 Forward Revenue 27.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 60.7 M
 Depreciation
 Depreciation and Amortization
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 90.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 39.1 M
 EBITDA 4.3 M
 EBIT -5.21 M
 Operating Income 9.1 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 2.3 M
 Net Interest Income -2.34 M
 Income Before Tax -7.55 M
 Tax Provision -2.26 M
 Tax Rate 29.939 %
 Net Income -5.29 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -5.29 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS -1.86
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.1 B
 Intangible Assets 76.2 M
 Net Tangible Assets 504.0 M
 Total Current Assets 404.1 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 369.2 M
 Cash 272.5 M
 Net Receivables 21.2 M
 Inventory 3.9 M
 Long-Term Investments 12.2 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 27.8 M
 Short-Term Debt 20.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities 143.0 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 347.2 M
 Total Liabilities 499.2 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 580.3 M
 Retained Earnings 640.1 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 187.01
 Shares Outstanding 3.103 M
 Revenue Per-Share 32.14
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.0 B
 Enterprise Value 1.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 234.406
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 1947.665 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 2975.673 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA BH: 234.406
high: 190.151
median: 155.361
mean: 131.989
low: -123.294
 EV/R 10.176
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.86
 Asset To Liability 2.162
 Debt To Capital 0.374
 Debt To Assets 0.322
Debt To Assets QoQ 121.411 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1837.349 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.761
mean: 0.773
median: 0.355
BH: 0.322
low: 0.009
 Debt To Equity 0.598
Debt To Equity QoQ 181.067 %
Debt To Equity YoY 2407.46 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.029
mean: 0.691
BH: 0.598
median: 0.577
low: -6.956
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.787
Price To Book QoQ 17.183 %
Price To Book YoY 98.514 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.273
median: 10.033
mean: 3.707
BH: 1.787
low: -10.707
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 10.397
Price To Sales QoQ 16.411 %
Price To Sales YoY 73.517 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 42.809
median: 26.401
mean: 24.036
BH: 10.397
low: 0.237
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -161.48
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 38.075
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 123.074
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.103
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -13.651 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -4.944 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.425
median: 0.224
mean: 0.214
BH: 0.103
low: 0.008
 Receivables Turnover 4.713
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.092 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 5.712 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 147.269
median: 30.434
mean: 26.539
BH: 4.713
low: 0.156
 Inventory Turnover 14.611
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.589 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -1.925 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 61.844
mean: 19.581
BH: 14.611
median: 8.017
low: 4.472
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 19.36
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -14.181
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 1.286 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -5.609 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 10.518
median: 5.16
mean: 1.354
low: -8.282
BH: -14.181
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.382
 CapEx To Revenue -0.09
 CapEx To Depreciation 0.0
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 795.2 M
 Net Invested Capital 816.1 M
 Invested Capital 816.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 504.0 M
 Net Working Capital 261.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 2.582
 Current Ratio 2.827
Current Ratio QoQ 104.523 %
Current Ratio YoY 91.714 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.054
BH: 2.827
median: 2.686
mean: 2.349
low: 0.245
 Quick Ratio 2.799
Quick Ratio QoQ 107.743 %
Quick Ratio YoY 94.388 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA BH: 2.799
high: 2.632
mean: 1.615
median: 1.318
low: 0.19
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 80.177
 Cost Of Debt 0.693 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -2.231
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -106.947 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -108.081 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 56.842
mean: 7.149
median: 6.219
BH: -2.231
low: -17.322
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.219
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 39.725
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 25.003 %
 Revenue Growth -0.876 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -114.908 %
Revenue Growth YoY 8.82 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 4.142 %
median: 1.869 %
mean: 1.114 %
BH: -0.876 %
low: -14.622 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 39.167 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.159 %
Gross Margin YoY 1.34 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 48.853 %
BH: 39.167 %
mean: 32.458 %
median: 25.208 %
low: 0.705 %
 EBIT Margin -5.229 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -107.83 %
EBIT Margin YoY -110.516 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 27.788 %
mean: 12.048 %
median: 9.83 %
BH: -5.229 %
low: -20.911 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.12 %
Return On Sales QoQ 47.477 %
Return On Sales YoY -81.659 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.861 %
mean: 12.349 %
median: 9.795 %
BH: 9.12 %
low: -15.482 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 22.3 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.15 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -51.014 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 215.712 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.283 %
BH: 2.15 %
mean: 0.402 %
median: 0.256 %
low: -3.849 %
 Free Cash Growth -43.463 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -111.93 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -68.204 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 250.173 %
mean: -27.667 %
BH: -43.463 %
median: -46.982 %
low: -347.626 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -4.215
 Cash Flow Margin 0.0 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -5.905
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.545 %
Return On Assets QoQ -109.056 %
Return On Assets YoY -114.2 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.903 %
mean: 1.477 %
median: 1.128 %
BH: -0.545 %
low: -9.078 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.557 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.009
Return On Equity QoQ -110.552 %
Return On Equity YoY -117.085 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.235
median: 0.019
mean: 0.007
BH: -0.009
low: -0.178
 DuPont ROE -0.905 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.448 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -105.184 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -98.408 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.942 %
median: 3.797 %
mean: 3.579 %
BH: -0.448 %
low: -7.241 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term directional bias favors downside pressure: multiple momentum indicators show peak-and-reversal behavior and directional indicators align with weakening bullish conviction. Strong liquidity and a WMDST under-valued assessment could place a floor under large-scale declines, while price remaining below short-term averages suggests limited upside until momentum indicators stabilize. Watch for MACD to re-cross above its signal line and for DI+ to resume an upward trend as the primary technical signals that would materially reduce current downside bias over a six-week horizon.

About Biglari Holdings Inc.

Biglari Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BH) represents a diversified conglomerate headquartered in San Antonio, Texas. Originally founded in 1934 as The Steak n Shake Company, it rebranded in 2010 to reflect its expansion beyond the restaurant industry. Biglari Holdings develops and franchises American dining establishments under the Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin brands, delivering a blend of traditional and modern dining experiences. In addition to its restaurant operations, Biglari Holdings diversifies its portfolio with strategic investments in several industries. The company maintains a significant presence in the insurance sector, offering commercial trucking insurance and related services. It also participates in the energy sector, managing oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf of Mexico, which highlights its involvement in energy exploration and production. Furthermore, Biglari Holdings owns MAXIM magazine, integrating traditional publishing with innovative media licensing. This diverse business mix underscores the company’s strategic investment approach, utilizing its expertise across various sectors to enhance shareholder value. Biglari Holdings consistently seeks new opportunities, reinforcing its status as a dynamic and multifaceted enterprise.



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