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On December 8, 2025, IBM announced a definitive agreement to acquire Confluent for $31 per share, valuing the company at $11 billion, with the transaction expected to close by mid-2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. In mid-November 2025 Confluent scheduled investor presentations, including an appearance at the RBC Global Technology conference on November 18, 2025, highlighting cloud and AI positioning.
Technical Analysis
ADX at 56.8 indicates a very strong directional presence in recent price action; such strength raises the probability of a significant move but does not indicate which side will dominate.
DI+ reads 43.42 and shows a decreasing trend; the falling DI+ signals waning bullish directional pressure relative to prior strength and increases the risk of lower highs versus recent levels.
DI- at 11.10 exhibits a dip & reversal; that pattern aligns with a renewed bearish contribution to directional movement and increases the chance of downside follow-through if DI+ continues to decline.
MACD stands at 0.76 while the MACD signal sits at 0.97 and the MACD trend shows decreasing momentum; MACD below its signal line indicates bearish momentum rather than a bullish crossover.
MRO sits positive at 21.35 with a peak & reversal; price sits above the MRO target range, suggesting a higher probability of mean reversion toward fair value rather than continued upside extension.
RSI at 69.5 with an increasing trend places the stock near overbought territory and reduces upside margin for error; rising RSI amid fading momentum often precedes consolidation or pullback.
Price sits marginally above the 12-day EMA (price 30.53 vs 12-day EMA 30.42) with the 12-day EMA increasing; short-term moving averages favor higher nominal levels but the combination of weakening directional indicators and elevated momentum measures implies limited room to run without a corrective phase.
Bollinger bands compress (20-day stdev 0.14) and the price hovers near the band upper half; compressed bands signal low volatility that can precede a volatility expansion—often in the direction confirmed by directional indicators. Trading volume currently runs below 10-, 50- and 200-day averages, lowering conviction behind recent moves and suggesting any breakout could lack follow-through.
Ichimoku readings place price above Tenkan-sen (30.38) and Kijun-sen (30.29), indicating short-term cloud support; however, cloud Senkou values lie below current price, implying limited overhead cushion if selling accelerates.
Fundamental Analysis
Total revenue reached $298,524,000 while gross profit measured $221,565,000, yielding a gross margin of 74.22%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 72.52% and near the peer median—evidence of strong product-level economics in data streaming.
Operating (EBIT) loss totaled $83,312,000, producing an EBIT margin of -27.91%, materially below the industry peer mean of 36.26% and peer median of 45.06%; operating margin QoQ declined by 18.31 percentage points and YoY fell by 25.45 percentage points, reflecting ongoing investment and negative operating leverage.
Net income for the period amounted to $-66,504,000 with EPS of $-0.19 versus an estimate of $-0.20, delivering an EPS beat of $0.01 and an EPS surprise of 5%.
Revenue dynamics show a strong sequential acceleration with QoQ revenue growth of 39.70% but a YoY revenue decline of 11.14%, indicating recent consumption or seasonal shifts driving short-term momentum while year-over-year comparisons remain pressured.
Balance sheet liquidity stands out: cash and short-term investments total $1,989,778,000 and the current ratio equals 4.01, providing significant buffer against near-term cash stress even as total debt equals $1,106,476,000 and reported net debt is $796,482,000.
Free cash flow registered $24,585,000 and free cash flow yield equals 0.33%, a modest conversion relative to market value; free cash flow growth shows a QoQ jump, but yield remains low versus typical software peer benchmarks.
Market multiples sit elevated. Price-to-earnings at 163.59 and forward P/E around 234.30 reflect forward earnings still modest relative to market price. Price-to-sales at 24.91 and enterprise-value-to-revenue around 21.95 mark pronounced valuation premium. Book value per share equals $3.20 while price-to-book sits near 6.65, below the industry peer mean of 12.36 and peer median of 10.45.
WMDST values the stock as over-valued. High gross margins and improving short-term revenue consumption underpin product strength, while negative operating margins, elevated market multiples, and restrained free cash flow yield justify WMDST’s over-valued determination.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-27 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-26 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 295.6 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 30.8 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -6.22 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ -27.14 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 2.9 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 298.5 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 298.5 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ -47.13 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 77.0 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 7.8 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 7.8 M | |
| Research and Development | $ 121.8 M | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 381.8 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 221.6 M | |
| EBITDA | $ -75.49 M | |
| EBIT | $ -83.31 M | |
| Operating Income | $ -83.31 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | — | |
| Net Interest Income | — | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -64.95 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 1.6 M | |
| Tax Rate | 21.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ -66.50 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -66.50 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ -0.20 | |
| EPS Actual | $ -0.19 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.01 | |
| EPS Surprise | 5.0 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.12 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 2.9 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 170.9 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 948.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 2.5 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 2.0 B | |
| Cash | $ 298.5 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 171.0 M | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 41.7 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 11.8 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 622.6 M | |
| Net Debt | $ 796.5 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 1.1 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 1.8 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 1.1 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -2.21 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 3.20 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 349.707 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 0.85 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 7.4 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 6.6 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -86.815 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 20.115 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | 43.416 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 725.943 mean: 90.707 median: 78.121 CFLT: -86.815 low: -500.562 |
|
| EV/R | 21.954 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 2.571 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.636 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.497 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.385 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -2.187 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 4572.904 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.164 CFLT: 0.385 mean: 0.171 median: 0.095 low: 0.001 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.989 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -5.051 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 4201.218 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 2.803 CFLT: 0.989 mean: 0.289 median: 0.167 low: -1.761 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 6.646 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -2.787 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -13.301 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 32.156 mean: 12.364 median: 10.455 CFLT: 6.646 low: -17.466 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 163.589 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -258.968 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -25.242 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 535.496 CFLT: 163.589 mean: 145.63 median: 137.28 low: -396.374 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -1.061 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 24.913 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -3.297 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -12.977 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 95.267 median: 48.871 mean: 45.887 CFLT: 24.913 low: 1.307 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 234.3 | |
| Forward PE/G | -1.52 | |
| Forward P/S | -216.579 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -2.366 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.105 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 2.443 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 7.627 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.414 mean: 0.127 median: 0.124 CFLT: 0.105 low: -0.008 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 1.639 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -0.237 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 75.598 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 6.055 CFLT: 1.639 mean: 1.478 median: 1.265 low: -0.167 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 55.678 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 41.373 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 226.004 CFLT: 41.373 mean: -22.658 median: -38.513 low: -211.399 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.159 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.021 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.795 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 2.2 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 948.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 1.9 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 3.196 | |
| Current Ratio | 4.014 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 0.749 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -5.258 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 8.127 CFLT: 4.014 mean: 1.701 median: 1.401 low: 0.159 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -14.657 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.064 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -92.569 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -13.611 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -11.051 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 205.936 median: 50.142 mean: 36.103 CFLT: -92.569 low: -243.016 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.058 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 14.306 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 2.119 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 5.753 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | 39.704 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -11.137 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 28.215 % CFLT: 5.753 % mean: 3.105 % median: 1.612 % low: -13.442 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -154.167 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -61.458 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -331.249 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 200.0 % mean: 5.188 % median: 1.918 % CFLT: -154.167 % low: -181.25 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 74.22 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | 0.671 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -0.428 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 90.981 % CFLT: 74.22 % mean: 72.521 % median: 69.046 % low: 26.432 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | -27.908 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -18.309 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -25.449 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 76.323 % median: 45.059 % mean: 36.264 % CFLT: -27.908 % low: -105.646 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | -27.908 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -18.309 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -25.449 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 76.795 % median: 48.873 % mean: 37.599 % CFLT: -27.908 % low: -133.444 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 24.6 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 0.331 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 119.205 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 154.615 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 10.114 % median: 0.676 % mean: 0.479 % CFLT: 0.331 % low: -10.76 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 123.398 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -192.53 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -49.565 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 368.524 % CFLT: 123.398 % median: 0.372 % mean: -7.536 % low: -324.945 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | -0.37 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -12.092 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.543 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -2.336 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -21.373 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -19.086 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 13.583 % median: 4.421 % mean: 3.729 % CFLT: -2.336 % low: -19.283 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -3.695 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.059 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -22.858 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -25.113 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.151 median: 0.076 mean: 0.065 CFLT: -0.059 low: -0.395 |
|
| DuPont ROE | -6.094 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | -2.973 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -15.803 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -173.845 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 14.226 % median: 6.978 % mean: 5.477 % CFLT: -2.973 % low: -12.344 % |
|