SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) Strengthens North America Leadership While Navigating EU Review

SAP’s recent leadership moves and regulatory concessions set an operational focus that should help stabilize revenue mix and cash conversion in the near term. Technical momentum presently favors mean reversion toward WMDST’s valuation estimate.

Recent News

On November 14, 2025 SAP proposed concessions to address an EU antitrust probe on on‑premise maintenance and support, offering remedies such as easier switching for customers and the removal of reinstatement fees. On December 2, 2025 SAP published a feature on an expanded partnership with the U.S. General Services Administration to accelerate federal cloud modernisation. On January 7, 2026 SAP named David Robinson president of SAP North America, assigning him responsibility for market units and sales across the Americas.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 16.64 indicates no established trend; trend strength remains weak and limits conviction for directional breakout trades relative to the valuation anchor.

DI+ sits at 24.33 and shows an increasing trend, which signals renewed buyer interest against prior selling pressure and supports a near-term bullish tilt versus current price levels.

DI‑ at 26.95 shows a peak‑and‑reversal pattern, which registers as bullish under the directional indicator rules and reinforces the DI+ signal despite ADX weakness.

MACD reads ‑1.32 with the signal at ‑1.29 and shows a peak‑and‑reversal pattern; the MACD position below its signal line indicates bearish momentum and implies downward pressure on price until the MACD begins to increase or crosses above the signal line.

MRO equals 12.94 and sits positive with a peak‑and‑reversal; price sits above the model target, implying potential for a corrective move lower toward fair value established by WMDST.

RSI at 43.11 with a peak‑and‑reversal shows recent momentum loss and remains below neutral, favoring sellers over buyers while remaining far from oversold extremes.

Price at $235.84 trades below the 20‑day ($242.69), 50‑day ($244.47) and 200‑day ($272.10) averages and below the 12‑ and 26‑day EMAs; this alignment against moving averages signals a bearish bias that increases the likelihood of mean reversion moves toward the valuation mean. The close lies below the 1‑sigma lower Bollinger band ($237.96) but above the 2‑sigma lower band ($233.23), placing price near lower volatility limits where short squeezes or technical bounces often occur.

Volume at ~2.08M sits above the 10‑, 50‑ and 200‑day averages, indicating stronger trading interest on recent moves; 42‑day beta ~0.99 and 52‑week beta ~0.88 show market‑correlated volatility but below many high‑growth software peers, which tempers large directional moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

EPS outperformed estimates in the most recent report: actual EPS $1.85 versus estimate $1.74, a $0.11 beat equal to a 6.32% surprise. That beat supports the operating performance narrative and factors into the WMDST valuation.

Profitability shows strength: EBIT $3.057B and EBIT margin 33.68%, above the industry peer mean and above the industry peer median for EBIT margin. EBIT margin rose QoQ by 9.76% and YoY by 19.27%, reflecting improving operating leverage on recurring revenue streams.

Operating margin stands at 27.22%, above the industry peer mean and below the industry peer median; gross margin at 73.50% highlights high software economics and substantial operating leverage potential as cloud mix grows.

Top‑line trends show mixed timing: total revenue $9.076B with revenue growth of 0.54% overall, revenue growth QoQ at 250.32% and revenue growth YoY at ‑75.14%. Those figures indicate sharp quarter‑to‑quarter dynamics; combine with improved margin expansion and the EPS beat to view revenue cadence as volatile but margin‑accretive in the reported period.

Cash flow and liquidity remain solid: free cash flow $1.301B, free cash flow yield 0.41% which sits above the industry peer mean, operating cash flow $1.502B, and cash & short‑term investments $9.934B. Free cash to net income equals 64.92%, supporting funding for cloud investments without heavy balance‑sheet strain.

Capital structure remains conservative: total debt $9.121B, debt to assets 13.34%, debt to EBITDA ~2.70x, and interest coverage ~9.8x. These metrics indicate manageable leverage and adequate interest coverage relative to operating cash flow generation.

Return metrics remain modest versus high‑growth software expectations: ROE 4.68% and ROA 2.93%, each slightly below the industry peer mean. Asset turnover at 0.133 is roughly in line with the industry peer mean. The mix of high margins, moderate returns, and large intangible asset base implies earnings quality driven by recurring cloud contracts rather than capex‑intensive growth.

Valuation signals: P/E ~137.94x, forward P/E ~163.38x, price/book ~7.47x, enterprise value / revenue and enterprise multiples appear elevated in absolute terms. Despite those multiples, WMDST values the stock as under‑valued based on normalized cash flow and margin trajectories and the balance‑sheet cushion described above.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-21
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 7.9 B
 Operating Cash Flow 1.5 B
 Capital Expenditures -201.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -1.10 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 612.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 8.6 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 9.1 B
 Forward Revenue 2.8 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 2.4 B
 Depreciation 318.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 318.0 M
 Research and Development 1.6 B
 Total Operating Expenses 6.6 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 6.7 B
 EBITDA 3.4 B
 EBIT 3.1 B
 Operating Income 2.5 B
 Interest Income 524.0 M
 Interest Expense 312.0 M
 Net Interest Income 212.0 M
 Income Before Tax 2.7 B
 Tax Provision 694.0 M
 Tax Rate 25.3 %
 Net Income 2.0 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 2.1 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.74
 EPS Actual 1.85
 EPS Difference 0.11
 EPS Surprise 6.322 %
 Forward EPS 2.12
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 68.4 B
 Intangible Assets 31.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 11.4 B
 Total Current Assets 18.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 9.9 B
 Cash 8.6 B
 Net Receivables 5.8 B
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 4.0 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.1 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 17.1 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 9.1 B
 Total Liabilities 25.2 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 42.8 B
 Retained Earnings 45.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 36.76
 Shares Outstanding 1.165 B
 Revenue Per-Share 7.79
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 319.7 B
 Enterprise Value 318.9 B
 Enterprise Multiple 94.48
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -11.423 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 5.338 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 725.943
median: 119.829
mean: 110.122
SAP: 94.48
low: -500.562
 EV/R 35.133
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.598
 Asset To Liability 2.719
 Debt To Capital 0.176
 Debt To Assets 0.133
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.293 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1749.653 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.164
mean: 0.271
median: 0.231
SAP: 0.133
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.213
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.122 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1649.343 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.803
mean: 0.498
median: 0.216
SAP: 0.213
low: -1.761
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 7.468
Price To Book QoQ -7.477 %
Price To Book YoY 20.91 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 32.156
mean: 16.083
median: 15.962
SAP: 7.468
low: -17.466
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 137.94
Price To Earnings QoQ -17.748 %
Price To Earnings YoY -22.248 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 535.496
mean: 158.886
median: 153.023
SAP: 137.94
low: -396.374
 PE/G Ratio 10.556
 Price To Sales (P/S) 35.223
Price To Sales QoQ -3.917 %
Price To Sales YoY 17.204 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 95.267
median: 42.816
mean: 42.469
SAP: 35.223
low: 1.307
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 163.376
Forward PE/G 12.502
Forward P/S 143.669
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 19.088
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.133
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.856 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 9.679 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.414
SAP: 0.133
mean: 0.131
median: 0.13
low: -0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.571
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 19.714 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 7.86 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.055
mean: 1.737
median: 1.695
SAP: 1.571
low: -0.167
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 58.077
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -23.127
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 187.869 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 226.004
median: 49.222
mean: 32.932
SAP: -23.127
low: -144.827
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 5.053
 CapEx To Revenue -0.022
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.632
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 42.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 42.8 B
 Invested Capital 42.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 11.4 B
 Net Working Capital 1.8 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.581
 Current Ratio 1.105
Current Ratio QoQ 7.187 %
Current Ratio YoY 0.522 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.127
mean: 2.142
median: 1.124
SAP: 1.105
low: 0.159
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.703
 Cost Of Debt 2.609 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 9.798
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -5.203 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -1.282 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 225.0
mean: 22.534
SAP: 9.798
median: 6.076
low: -266.667
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.128
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 81.204
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.0 %
 Revenue Growth 0.543 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 250.323 %
Revenue Growth YoY -75.137 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.215 %
mean: 5.24 %
median: 4.971 %
SAP: 0.543 %
low: -13.442 %
 Earnings Growth 13.068 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 1037.337 %
Earnings Growth YoY 10.577 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 200.0 %
SAP: 13.068 %
mean: 8.067 %
median: 6.422 %
low: -181.25 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 73.502 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.226 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.22 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.981 %
median: 78.097 %
mean: 76.71 %
SAP: 73.502 %
low: 26.432 %
 EBIT Margin 33.682 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 9.763 %
EBIT Margin YoY 19.266 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 76.323 %
SAP: 33.682 %
median: 29.144 %
mean: 25.109 %
low: -105.646 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 27.215 %
Return On Sales QoQ -0.701 %
Return On Sales YoY -3.633 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.795 %
median: 31.435 %
SAP: 27.215 %
mean: 24.137 %
low: -133.444 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1.3 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.407 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -43.551 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -20.971 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 10.114 %
SAP: 0.407 %
median: 0.246 %
mean: 0.244 %
low: -10.76 %
 Free Cash Growth -45.474 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 33.901 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 1091.042 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 368.524 %
median: -5.783 %
mean: -13.142 %
SAP: -45.474 %
low: -324.945 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.649
 Cash Flow Margin 24.052 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.089
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.93 %
Return On Assets QoQ 24.363 %
Return On Assets YoY 40.191 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 13.583 %
mean: 2.949 %
SAP: 2.93 %
median: 1.678 %
low: -19.283 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 5.961 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.047
Return On Equity QoQ 13.095 %
Return On Equity YoY 31.859 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.151
median: 0.055
mean: 0.052
SAP: 0.047
low: -0.395
 DuPont ROE 4.782 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.335 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 32.547 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -138.514 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.226 %
SAP: 5.335 %
mean: 3.439 %
median: 3.218 %
low: -12.344 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near‑term directional bias: mixed. Technicals show weak trend strength overall, bearish MACD momentum and price trading below key moving averages, which increases downside risk versus recent levels. Countervailing signals—DI+ increasing and DI‑ peak‑and‑reversal, plus MRO‑driven mean‑reversion pressure—create a setup where price may oscillate between lower volatility bands and WMDST’s valuation anchor.

Key drivers to watch over the next six weeks: ongoing updates or deadlines in the EU competition review process, execution on North America commercial initiatives under new leadership, and any fresh guidance or cash‑flow commentary. Positive confirmation on customer‑migration metrics or clear progress in the EU remedies would support the valuation gap; renewed negative momentum from MACD or a drop below the 2‑sigma lower Bollinger band would widen the discount to fair value.

Volume and news flow will likely determine whether technical support near the current lower bands holds or gives way to deeper mean reversion. Risk management should prioritize event risk from regulatory milestones and large corporate announcements rather than relying solely on short‑term momentum indicators.

About SAP SE

SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) develops and delivers enterprise application software and services globally. The company offers SAP S/4HANA, a comprehensive suite that supports finance, risk management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain, and R&D. SAP SuccessFactors addresses human resources needs, covering HR management, payroll, talent management, and workforce analytics. Their spend management solutions manage direct and indirect spend, travel expenses, and external workforce. SAP provides customer experience solutions and the SAP Business Technology Platform, which facilitates application development, integration, and automation for clients and partners. The SAP Business Network enhances B2B collaboration, digitizing supply chain processes and enabling communication among trading partners. SAP Signavio assists clients in analyzing and optimizing business processes. Additionally, SAP offers industry cloud solutions tailored to specific industry needs, and Taulia solutions for working capital management, which help customers manage inflation impacts by improving visibility into working capital and liquidity access. SAP also emphasizes sustainability through its solutions and services. Founded in 1972, SAP SE maintains its headquarters in Walldorf, Germany.



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