EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) Extends Operational Momentum Despite Over-Valued Status

Strong project wins and fresh capital-return measures reinforce execution and cash generation. Near-term technical momentum supports further price resilience while WMDST’s current valuation classifies the stock as over-valued.

Recent News

On December 18, 2025 the Board approved a quarterly dividend increase to $0.40 per share and authorized an additional $500 million in share repurchases. On December 1, 2025 the company completed the previously announced sale of its UK business to OCS Group for approximately £190 million (about $250 million), with proceeds earmarked for domestic growth and disciplined acquisitions. On January 2, 2026 the Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per common share payable January 30, 2026 to holders of record as of January 14, 2026.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show an emerging trend: ADX at 20.43 indicates trend strength moving out of the no-trend band into emergence while DI+ exhibits a dip-and-reversal, which reads as bullish, and DI- is decreasing, which also reads as bullish; collectively these suggest directional momentum has begun to favor buyers.

MACD sits at -0.04 with the MACD line rising and positioned above its signal line, which constitutes a bullish momentum shift and signals that downside momentum has waned.

MRO at -18.11 remains negative, indicating price sits below WMDST’s target and therefore carries potential upside; the MRO trend shows increasing values, supporting a price convergence toward target levels rather than further overshoot to the downside.

RSI at 51.55 completed a dip-and-reversal, indicating regained short-term buying momentum without reaching overbought conditions, which supports the case for a continuation of near-term strength rather than a sharp mean reversion.

Price sits above key moving averages: last close $653.57 exceeds the 20‑day average $622.48, the 50‑day average $638.22, and the 200‑day average $560.00, which aligns with momentum indicators and suggests trend-following pressure remains intact. Bollinger bands place the price toward the upper band area, implying the rally maintains breadth but sits nearer to shorter-term resistance bands.

Short-term volatility and volume show active participation: 42‑day beta of 1.86 and 52‑week beta 1.45 point to elevated sensitivity to market moves, while recent volume (416,396) runs above the 10‑day average (299,786), implying conviction behind recent price moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Operating performance shows scale and margin consistency. Operating income totaled $405,696,000 with an operating (EBIT) margin of 9.43%; that margin sits slightly below the industry peer mean of 9.71% and slightly below the industry peer median of 10.60%, indicating margin parity with peers but without clear outperformance.

Earnings per share came in at $6.57 versus an estimate of $6.53, producing an EPS surprise of +0.61%, reflecting modest upside to consensus for the quarter. Net income totaled $295,373,000 for the period.

Valuation multiples skew rich relative to peer benchmarks: price-to-book at 8.69 stands above the industry peer mean of 6.15 and median of 5.22; price-to-earnings at 98.53 sits above the industry peer mean of 82.78 and median of 86.26. Free cash flow totaled $448,844,000 with a free cash flow yield of 1.55%, tracking slightly below the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of about 1.69%.

Balance-sheet and capital structure metrics provide flexibility. Debt to EBITDA measures 0.94x and total debt represents a modest portion of the balance sheet; interest coverage runs at roughly 48.8x, indicating ample ability to service interest. Cash and short‑term investments total $655,104,000 against current liabilities of $4,579,449,000, with a current ratio of 1.19 and a quick ratio of 1.17.

Returns show efficiency above peer averages: return on equity about 8.86% and return on assets about 3.47% compare favorably to the industry peer mean ROE (~5.78%) and ROA (~2.22%), highlighting operating effectiveness despite a large asset base and modest leverage.

WMDST places the current valuation as over‑valued based on the combination of elevated multiples (P/E and P/B) versus industry peer means, a free cash flow yield below peer mean, and the company’s capital allocation moves that shift cash toward buybacks and higher dividends.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 487.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 475.5 M
 Capital Expenditures -26.66 M
 Change In Working Capital 125.2 M
 Dividends Paid -11.19 M
 Cash Flow Delta 169.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 656.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.3 B
 Forward Revenue 1.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.5 B
 Depreciation 17.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 47.8 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 3.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 835.3 M
 EBITDA 453.5 M
 EBIT 405.7 M
 Operating Income 405.7 M
 Interest Income 1.8 M
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 1.8 M
 Income Before Tax 407.6 M
 Tax Provision 112.2 M
 Tax Rate 27.5 %
 Net Income 295.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 295.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 6.53
 EPS Actual 6.57
 EPS Difference 0.04
 EPS Surprise 0.613 %
 Forward EPS 6.94
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 8.6 B
 Intangible Assets 2.4 B
 Net Tangible Assets 919.2 M
 Total Current Assets 5.5 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 655.1 M
 Cash 655.1 M
 Net Receivables 4.1 B
 Inventory 105.4 M
 Long-Term Investments 133.3 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.0 B
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 4.6 B
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 424.6 M
 Total Liabilities 5.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.3 B
 Retained Earnings 5.6 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 74.51
 Shares Outstanding 44.765 M
 Revenue Per-Share 96.09
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 29.0 B
 Enterprise Value 28.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 63.394
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 14.25 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 39.784 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 131.097
EME: 63.394
median: 56.564
mean: 52.81
low: -45.941
 EV/R 6.683
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.59
 Asset To Liability 1.629
 Debt To Capital 0.113
 Debt To Assets 0.049
Debt To Assets QoQ -38.398 %
Debt To Assets YoY 348.358 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.792
median: 0.244
mean: 0.24
EME: 0.049
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.127
Debt To Equity QoQ -42.026 %
Debt To Equity YoY 337.642 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.946
mean: 0.748
median: 0.744
EME: 0.127
low: 0.002
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 8.688
Price To Book QoQ 4.209 %
Price To Book YoY 26.067 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 11.745
EME: 8.688
mean: 6.15
median: 5.222
low: -0.303
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 98.535
Price To Earnings QoQ 28.485 %
Price To Earnings YoY 38.294 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 138.015
EME: 98.535
median: 86.256
mean: 82.784
low: -31.573
 PE/G Ratio -44.146
 Price To Sales (P/S) 6.737
Price To Sales QoQ 13.976 %
Price To Sales YoY 31.027 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 24.589
EME: 6.737
mean: 6.694
median: 5.709
low: 0.204
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 107.088
Forward PE/G -47.979
Forward P/S 31.88
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 34.361
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.505
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.359 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.715 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.643
EME: 0.505
mean: 0.35
median: 0.32
low: 0.019
 Receivables Turnover 1.047
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.673 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -1.357 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.931
mean: 1.871
median: 1.682
EME: 1.047
low: 0.72
 Inventory Turnover 32.461
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -5.4 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 8.69 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 44.608
EME: 32.461
mean: 14.106
median: 8.378
low: 0.269
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 87.183
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 61.628
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 10.856 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 0.681 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 152.993
EME: 61.628
mean: 22.246
median: 9.126
low: -36.642
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 4.897
 CapEx To Revenue -0.006
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.542
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 3.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.3 B
 Invested Capital 3.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 919.2 M
 Net Working Capital 878.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.143
 Current Ratio 1.192
Current Ratio QoQ 1.175 %
Current Ratio YoY -6.558 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.71
mean: 1.537
median: 1.301
EME: 1.192
low: 0.103
 Quick Ratio 1.169
Quick Ratio QoQ 1.338 %
Quick Ratio YoY -6.6 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.965
mean: 1.561
median: 1.296
EME: 1.169
low: 0.069
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.936
 Cost Of Debt 1.101 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 48.808
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -2.292 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 11.597 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 88.977
EME: 48.808
mean: 8.028
median: 6.36
low: -42.909
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.061
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 28.363
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 26.391
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.038
 Dividend Rate 0.25
 Dividend Yield 0.0
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.854 %
 Revenue Growth -0.067 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -100.593 %
Revenue Growth YoY -108.181 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 45.722 %
median: 8.97 %
mean: 7.56 %
EME: -0.067 %
low: -30.219 %
 Earnings Growth -2.232 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -108.041 %
Earnings Growth YoY -121.306 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 156.25 %
mean: 26.578 %
median: 26.34 %
EME: -2.232 %
low: -96.429 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 19.419 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.253 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.289 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 49.439 %
median: 24.054 %
mean: 20.42 %
EME: 19.419 %
low: -13.331 %
 EBIT Margin 9.431 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -2.229 %
EBIT Margin YoY -4.098 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 23.417 %
median: 10.6 %
mean: 9.707 %
EME: 9.431 %
low: -14.014 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 9.431 %
Return On Sales QoQ -2.229 %
Return On Sales YoY -4.098 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 19.158 %
median: 10.329 %
EME: 9.431 %
mean: 9.364 %
low: -66.34 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 448.8 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.549 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 137.942 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -42.115 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 16.122 %
median: 1.963 %
mean: 1.689 %
EME: 1.549 %
low: -15.175 %
 Free Cash Growth 170.969 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 68.99 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 79.341 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 583.204 %
EME: 170.969 %
mean: 40.187 %
median: 30.667 %
low: -490.961 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.52
 Cash Flow Margin 6.464 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.941
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 3.467 %
Return On Assets QoQ -5.454 %
Return On Assets YoY -7.67 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.641 %
EME: 3.467 %
mean: 2.215 %
median: 1.986 %
low: -12.201 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 9.99 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.089
Return On Equity QoQ -10.564 %
Return On Equity YoY -9.623 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.131
EME: 0.089
mean: 0.058
median: 0.052
low: -0.333
 DuPont ROE 9.25 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 8.818 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -4.391 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -131.917 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 12.406 %
EME: 8.818 %
mean: 4.817 %
median: 3.681 %
low: -6.036 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical setup favors continued near-term upside: directional indicators and MACD signal renewed momentum, RSI recovery avoids overbought stress, and price trading above short- and long-term averages sustains constructive market internals. Elevated short-term beta and above-average recent volume suggest moves could carry larger intraperiod swings.

Fundamentals provide mixed reinforcement: operating execution and cash generation remain strong and the balance sheet sits in a conservative posture, but valuation multiples currently reflect a premium that reduces the margin for error if execution weakens. Expect range expansion to the upside on sustained positive project wins and capital-return confirmations, while any meaningful deterioration in margin or cash flow could quickly tighten the trading range given the premium valuation environment.

About EMCOR Group, Inc.

EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) delivers comprehensive construction and facilities services with a strong presence in the United States and the United Kingdom. Headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, EMCOR designs and integrates solutions across the entire lifecycle of building and industrial projects. The company focuses on power systems, energy efficiency, and complex mechanical and electrical systems, providing clients with a wide array of services from design and installation to maintenance. EMCOR holds expertise in HVAC, refrigeration, and geothermal solutions, along with fire protection, plumbing, and high-purity piping systems. The company also tackles infrastructure projects, offering services in roadway and transit lighting, traffic control systems, and fiber optic installations. In the realm of facilities management, EMCOR provides site-based operations, energy retrofits, and comprehensive maintenance services. Their offerings include technical consulting, diagnostic services, and vendor management, ensuring optimal building performance. With a commitment to quality and operational excellence, EMCOR Group, Inc. delivers exceptional value to its diverse clientele, continually enhancing the built environment through innovative and sustainable solutions.



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