Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) Signals Near-Term Downside Pressure Despite Long-Term Undervaluation

Commvault’s fundamentals reveal durable cash strength but elevated leverage and compressed margins, while technical indicators point to short-term bearish momentum with conflicting momentum signals that could shape the next several weeks.

Recent News

Dec. 1–2, 2025: Commvault announced achievement of the AWS Resilience Competency in Recovery and received the 2025 AWS Global Storage Partner of the Year award, highlighting expanded marketplace listings and AWS workload support. Dec. 2–11, 2025: the company presented AI-enabled cyber resilience solutions at industry events including Gartner IOCS and Microsoft Ignite. Nov. 30 / Dec. 4, 2025: Commvault disclosed CFO Jen DiRico will depart at year-end and the CEO established an interim Office of the CFO while a search proceeds.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX/DI+/DI-): ADX sits at 24.42, indicating an emerging trend. DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal while DI- shows a dip-and-reversal; both directional moves point toward rising downside pressure in the near term.

MACD: MACD equals -1.48 and has been increasing; the MACD line sits above its signal line (-2.62), which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover. That bullish signal conflicts with the directional indicators, producing a mixed short-term momentum profile.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO reads 19.9 and trends upward; with MRO positive, price sits above the model target and the oscillator implies a higher probability of downward reversion toward fair-value levels over coming weeks.

RSI and short-term moving averages: RSI at 40.23 with a peak-and-reversal indicates renewed selling pressure without oversold extremes. The 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal; current price ($124.18) sits below the 12-day EMA ($125.53), the 20-day average ($125.03), the 50-day average ($129.83), and well below the 200-day average ($163.66), reinforcing near-term negative bias.

Volatility, bands and structure: Bollinger 1x bands sit roughly between $121.95 (lower) and $128.10 (upper). SuperTrend upper at $129.33 provides a clear short-term resistance reference. Volume averages (10/50/200-day) run below longer-term norms, suggesting muted conviction during recent moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT of $15,737,000 yields an EBIT margin of 5.70%. That margin falls below the industry peer mean of 25.998% and median of 29.144%. EBIT margin contracted QoQ by -40.84% and YoY by -20.72%, signaling material near-term compression in operating profitability relative to prior periods.

Earnings and cash flow: Reported EPS equals $0.91 versus an estimate of $0.94, an EPS surprise of -3.19%. Operating cash flow reached $76,769,000 and free cash flow $73,582,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.935%. Cash and short-term investments total $1,063,555,000, giving a cash ratio near 1.99 and strong absolute liquidity to support operations and transition needs.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue stands at $276,188,000 with reported revenue growth of -2.05% overall; QoQ revenue growth printed -181.37% and YoY revenue growth shows -153.60% in the provided measures, reflecting significant period-to-period variability that compressed top-line momentum in the latest reporting window.

Leverage and capital structure: Total debt equals $908,488,000, producing debt-to-assets of 47.39% and debt-to-equity of 431.67%, indicating elevated leverage relative to equity. Interest coverage remains robust at 24.70x, driven by low cost of debt and positive earnings, but balance-sheet gearing materially exceeds typical peer medians.

Operational efficiency and returns: Asset turnover registers 0.1786 and return on equity sits at 6.999%. Gross margin holds at 80.07%, above the industry peer mean, yet operating and EBIT margins lag peers, pointing to high gross profitability offset by elevated operating spend or restructuring investments (R&D of $39,859,000 and total operating expenses $262,268,000).

Valuation: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Market multiples show a trailing PE of 196.23 and price-to-book of 37.38; both metrics sit above the industry peer mean and indicate market expectations priced into equity. Enterprise multiple and EVR sit elevated, consistent with high market capitalization relative to current earnings and enterprise cash performance.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-27
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 363.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow 76.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -3.19 M
 Change In Working Capital 8.3 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 700.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 276.2 M
 Forward Revenue 233.9 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 55.0 M
 Depreciation 3.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 3.0 M
 Research and Development 39.9 M
 Total Operating Expenses 262.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 221.1 M
 EBITDA 18.7 M
 EBIT 15.7 M
 Operating Income 13.9 M
 Interest Income 3.1 M
 Interest Expense 637.0 K
 Net Interest Income 2.5 M
 Income Before Tax 15.1 M
 Tax Provision 370.0 K
 Tax Rate 2.45 %
 Net Income 14.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 14.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.94
 EPS Actual 0.91
 EPS Difference -0.03
 EPS Surprise -3.191 %
 Forward EPS 1.13
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.9 B
 Intangible Assets 232.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets -22.08 M
 Total Current Assets 1.4 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 1.1 B
 Cash 1.1 B
 Net Receivables 234.8 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 55.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 359.0 K
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 535.3 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 908.5 M
 Total Liabilities 1.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 210.5 M
 Retained Earnings -1.23 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 4.78
 Shares Outstanding 44.051 M
 Revenue Per-Share 6.27
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 7.9 B
 Enterprise Value 7.7 B
 Enterprise Multiple 411.953
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 67.934 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 29.574 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 725.943
CVLT: 411.953
median: 119.829
mean: 107.344
low: -500.562
 EV/R 27.919
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 9.108
 Asset To Liability 1.123
 Debt To Capital 0.812
 Debt To Assets 0.474
Debt To Assets QoQ 1782.168 %
Debt To Assets YoY 8454.693 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.164
CVLT: 0.474
mean: 0.257
median: 0.207
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 4.317
Debt To Equity QoQ 5216.108 %
Debt To Equity YoY 22464.976 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA CVLT: 4.317
high: 2.803
mean: 0.496
median: 0.213
low: -0.893
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 37.375
Price To Book QoQ 78.042 %
Price To Book YoY 65.404 %
Price To Book IPRWA CVLT: 37.375
high: 32.156
mean: 15.058
median: 13.004
low: -17.466
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 196.226
Price To Earnings QoQ 15.428 %
Price To Earnings YoY 13.488 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 535.496
CVLT: 196.226
mean: 156.488
median: 153.023
low: -396.374
 PE/G Ratio -19.819
 Price To Sales (P/S) 28.481
Price To Sales QoQ 4.887 %
Price To Sales YoY 5.845 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 95.267
median: 42.816
mean: 41.654
CVLT: 28.481
low: 1.307
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 186.659
Forward PE/G -18.853
Forward P/S 39.071
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 20.484
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.179
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -27.34 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -27.531 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.414
CVLT: 0.179
median: 0.133
mean: 0.131
low: -0.008
 Receivables Turnover 1.127
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 1.38 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -3.872 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.055
mean: 1.723
median: 1.571
CVLT: 1.127
low: -0.167
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 80.988
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 80.62
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 226.004
CVLT: 80.62
median: 44.35
mean: 23.988
low: -144.827
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.338
 CapEx To Revenue -0.012
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.069
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 1.1 B
 Net Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Invested Capital 1.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets -22.08 M
 Net Working Capital 817.6 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.987
 Current Ratio 2.527
Current Ratio QoQ 103.057 %
Current Ratio YoY 110.253 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.127
CVLT: 2.527
mean: 2.043
median: 1.124
low: 0.159
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 48.536
 Cost Of Debt 0.132 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 24.705
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -74.714 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -84.527 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 225.0
CVLT: 24.705
mean: 21.087
median: 9.798
low: -266.667
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.072
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 0.367
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 62.944 %
 Revenue Growth -2.053 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -181.371 %
Revenue Growth YoY -153.603 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.215 %
mean: 4.811 %
median: 4.141 %
CVLT: -2.053 %
low: -13.442 %
 Earnings Growth -9.901 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 409.835 %
Earnings Growth YoY 320.782 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 200.0 %
median: 12.791 %
mean: 8.594 %
CVLT: -9.901 %
low: -181.25 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 80.07 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.345 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.906 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 90.981 %
CVLT: 80.07 %
median: 77.558 %
mean: 76.405 %
low: 26.432 %
 EBIT Margin 5.698 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -40.843 %
EBIT Margin YoY -20.718 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 76.323 %
median: 29.144 %
mean: 25.998 %
CVLT: 5.698 %
low: -105.646 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.04 %
Return On Sales QoQ -42.656 %
Return On Sales YoY -29.873 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 76.795 %
median: 29.387 %
mean: 24.482 %
CVLT: 5.04 %
low: -156.314 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 73.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.935 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 140.36 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 9.229 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 10.114 %
CVLT: 0.935 %
median: 0.259 %
mean: 0.257 %
low: -10.76 %
 Free Cash Growth 146.903 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -341.319 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 549.582 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 368.524 %
CVLT: 146.903 %
mean: -16.625 %
median: -16.953 %
low: -324.945 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 4.995
 Cash Flow Margin 13.998 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.625
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.952 %
Return On Assets QoQ -53.516 %
Return On Assets YoY -42.092 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 13.583 %
mean: 2.952 %
median: 1.924 %
CVLT: 0.952 %
low: -19.283 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.139 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.07
Return On Equity QoQ 8.646 %
Return On Equity YoY 24.915 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.151
CVLT: 0.07
mean: 0.051
median: 0.048
low: -0.395
 DuPont ROE 5.121 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.409 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -78.35 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -126.787 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 14.226 %
mean: 3.64 %
median: 3.218 %
CVLT: 1.409 %
low: -12.344 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias tilts toward consolidation with downside risk. Directional indicators show bearish pressure while MACD’s recent crossover signals potential for short-lived momentum rebounds; MRO and RSI favor mean reversion lower. Key technical references to monitor include the super trend upper at $129.33 and the Bollinger upper near $128.10 as short-term resistance, and the Bollinger lower at $121.95 and recent low near $114.47 as downside references. Liquidity and strong cash reserves reduce tail-risk from an operational perspective, but elevated leverage and compressed operating margins increase sensitivity to any near-term revenue or margin erosion. Expect price action over six weeks to follow confirmation of either MACD-driven momentum continuation or renewed DI-driven selling pressure; watch the ADX around the mid-20s as a measure of trend conviction.

About Commvault Systems, Inc.

CommVault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVLT) develops advanced data protection and management solutions, empowering businesses to enhance their cyber resiliency. Based in Tinton Falls, New Jersey, the company provides a comprehensive suite of offerings that ensure data security, availability, and compliance across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and technology. CommVault’s flagship solutions include Operational Recovery for seamless data backup and recovery, and Autonomous Recovery for automated disaster and cyber recovery across on-premises, cloud, or hybrid environments. Their Cyber Recovery solutions offer advanced threat detection and scanning, safeguarding data from potential cyber threats. The company also innovates in cloud technology with Cleanroom Recovery, providing a secure, isolated recovery environment, and HyperScale X, a scalable data protection solution that supports the transition to hybrid cloud infrastructures. Cloud Air Gap Protect further enhances security by offering an air-gapped cloud storage solution, aiding digital transformation while minimizing risks. With a strong focus on compliance, CommVault ensures data integrity through robust reporting and auditing capabilities. Since its founding in 1996, CommVault has consistently delivered solutions that help organizations navigate the complexities of today’s digital landscape.



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