Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KROS) Poised For Near-Term Pullback Amid Strong Trend Dynamics

Keros shows financial strength from a large cash position and an under-valued WMDST valuation, but technicals point to a near-term weakening that could pressure price into consolidation. Fundamental metrics support capital flexibility while recent corporate actions concentrate capital return and strategic focus.

Recent News

November 19–20, 2025: Keros announced preliminary and then final results of a cash tender offer to repurchase up to 10,950,165 shares at $17.75 per share, accepting the full amount with final proration; the purchases conclude the previously announced $375 million capital return program. November 11 and November 6, 2025: major brokers maintained coverage with Overweight and Neutral stances and one-year price targets clustering above the then-share price.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 33.24 signals a strong directional move; DI+ peaked and reversed while DI- is increasing, a combination that biases near-term price momentum to the downside despite overall trend strength. This directional setup suggests any valuation-driven support may meet selling pressure before consolidation.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.74 and is decreasing beneath its signal line at 0.95, indicating bearish momentum; absence of a MACD cross above the signal line removes a near-term bullish momentum trigger and favors consolidation toward moving-average support levels.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 37.09 and increasing shows price trading above the modeled target and implies downside potential as momentum regresses toward the target; the oscillator strength amplifies the probability of a pullback that would realign price with valuation anchors.

RSI: RSI at 60.38 has peaked and reversed, a bearish swing signal that complements MACD and DI behavior and increases the likelihood of a corrective leg rather than a sustained breakout despite elevated relative strength readings.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Bands: Last close $20.36 sits below the 12-day EMA ($20.67) and the 20-day average ($20.97) but above the 50-day ($18.18) and 200-day ($15.08) averages; the 12-day EMA has peaked and reversed, which aligns with momentum indicators and frames probable short-term consolidation above the super-trend support at $19.72 and lower Bollinger band toward $19.75.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: Operating (EBIT) loss totaled -$15,384,000 with an EBIT margin of -107.87%, a QoQ deterioration of -50.78% and a YoY decline of -99.29%. The company’s EBIT margin sits slightly above the industry peer mean of -119.43% but below the industry peer median of 35.35%, indicating losses remain materially adverse versus typical profitable peers while modestly better than the industry mean.

Earnings and surprises: Reported EPS of -$0.18 beat consensus of -$0.92 by $0.74, an EPS surprise of 80.44%, improving near-term earnings optics and reducing downside risk from financial disappointment in the short run.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue registered $14,262,000 with reported revenue growth of -21.50%, revenue growth QoQ down -76.48% and revenue growth YoY down -102.27%, indicating significant near-term top-line variability that amplifies reliance on existing cash resources to fund operations and development.

Cash, liquidity, and leverage: Cash and short-term investments total $693,472,000 versus market capitalization of $615,586,224; current ratio stands at 29.86 and cash ratio at 28.78. Enterprise value appears negative at -$60,456,776, reflecting the firm’s net cash position. Low leverage (total debt $17,429,000) leaves the company well capitalized to fund clinical programs and the announced capital return program.

Returns and cash flow: Return on assets at -0.97% and return on equity at -1.04% reflect limited profitability, while operating cash flow of $3,249,000 and free cash flow of $3,117,000 produce a free cash flow yield of 0.51%. Free cash growth displays mixed pulses but cash reserves mitigate liquidity risk.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Price-to-book at 0.87 sits well below the industry peer mean of 6.97 and price targets show a mean near $22.48, reinforcing that market price trades with a significant cash-backed valuation buffer even amid operational losses.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 691.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 3.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -132.00 K
 Change In Working Capital 5.5 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 3.3 M
 End Period Cash Flow 694.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 14.3 M
 Forward Revenue 14.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 395.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization 395.0 K
 Research and Development 19.5 M
 Total Operating Expenses 29.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA -14.99 M
 EBIT -15.38 M
 Operating Income -15.38 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income
 Income Before Tax -8.70 M
 Tax Provision -1.42 M
 Tax Rate 16.4 %
 Net Income -7.28 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -7.28 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -0.92
 EPS Actual -0.18
 EPS Difference 0.74
 EPS Surprise 80.435 %
 Forward EPS -0.74
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 742.8 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 703.6 M
 Total Current Assets 719.3 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 693.5 M
 Cash 693.5 M
 Net Receivables 3.5 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 1.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 2.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 24.1 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 17.4 M
 Total Liabilities 39.2 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 703.6 M
 Retained Earnings -458.30 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.32
 Shares Outstanding 40.632 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.35
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 615.6 M
 Enterprise Value -60.46 M
 Enterprise Multiple 4.033
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 80.954 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -114.002 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 52.77
median: 24.843
KROS: 4.033
mean: 3.607
low: -80.476
 EV/R -4.239
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.056
 Asset To Liability 18.947
 Debt To Capital 0.024
 Debt To Assets 0.023
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.054 %
Debt To Assets YoY 630.841 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.045
mean: 0.213
median: 0.074
KROS: 0.023
low: 0.0
 Debt To Equity 0.025
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.48 %
Debt To Equity YoY 609.742 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.395
mean: 0.193
median: 0.09
KROS: 0.025
low: -0.869
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.875
Price To Book QoQ 5.82 %
Price To Book YoY -78.901 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 17.968
mean: 6.969
median: 5.8
KROS: 0.875
low: -8.555
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -84.168
Price To Earnings QoQ 351.252 %
Price To Earnings YoY 110.864 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 56.753
mean: -3.743
median: -11.857
KROS: -84.168
low: -93.179
 PE/G Ratio 1.103
 Price To Sales (P/S) 43.163
Price To Sales QoQ 34.2 %
Price To Sales YoY -99.242 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 1129.647
mean: 73.46
KROS: 43.163
median: 25.506
low: 0.466
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E -10.546
Forward PE/G 0.138
Forward P/S 21.708
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 2.854
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.019
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -19.304 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2436.0 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.438
mean: 0.117
median: 0.107
KROS: 0.019
low: -0.004
 Receivables Turnover 1.477
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 34.604 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -25.372 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.279
KROS: 1.477
mean: 1.452
median: 1.35
low: -0.057
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 61.767
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 61.767
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -99.77 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 1241.621
median: 189.366
mean: 186.827
KROS: 61.767
low: -1809.09
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.021
 CapEx To Revenue -0.009
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.334
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 703.6 M
 Net Invested Capital 703.6 M
 Invested Capital 703.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 703.6 M
 Net Working Capital 695.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 28.784
 Current Ratio 29.857
Current Ratio QoQ 41.406 %
Current Ratio YoY 56.88 %
Current Ratio IPRWA KROS: 29.857
high: 25.502
mean: 4.389
median: 3.195
low: 0.02
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -1.163
 Cost Of Debt 0.047 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -1538.4
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -61.363 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -73.773 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 815.709
mean: 40.923
median: 4.213
low: -1520.021
KROS: -1538.4
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.103
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.899 %
 Revenue Growth -21.499 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -76.478 %
Revenue Growth YoY -102.266 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 301.849 %
mean: 7.866 %
median: 4.118 %
KROS: -21.499 %
low: -259.856 %
 Earnings Growth -76.316 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -36.926 %
Earnings Growth YoY -696.219 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 162.5 %
median: -6.452 %
mean: -13.132 %
KROS: -76.316 %
low: -198.545 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin -107.867 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -50.782 %
EBIT Margin YoY -99.286 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 3270.865 %
median: 35.352 %
KROS: -107.867 %
mean: -119.429 %
low: -8139.786 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -107.867 %
Return On Sales QoQ -50.782 %
Return On Sales YoY -99.286 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 573.037 %
median: 26.151 %
KROS: -107.867 %
mean: -113.734 %
low: -7977.249 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 3.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.506 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -109.744 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -136.195 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 30.655 %
median: 0.741 %
KROS: 0.506 %
mean: 0.301 %
low: -58.703 %
 Free Cash Growth -110.273 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -7.25 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 379.469 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 199.867 %
mean: 27.85 %
median: 21.696 %
KROS: -110.273 %
low: -198.468 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.428
 Cash Flow Margin 17.319 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.339
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.971 %
Return On Assets QoQ -75.615 %
Return On Assets YoY -90.518 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 30.5 %
median: -0.016 %
KROS: -0.971 %
mean: -2.272 %
low: -66.968 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -2.141 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.01
Return On Equity QoQ -76.169 %
Return On Equity YoY -89.586 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.948
median: -0.002
mean: -0.006
KROS: -0.01
low: -1.385
 DuPont ROE -1.033 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -1.829 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -65.188 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -120.872 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 31.965 %
median: 4.232 %
mean: -0.087 %
KROS: -1.829 %
low: -73.241 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias leans toward a corrective phase and consolidation. Technicals — DI+ peak-and-reversal, rising DI-, MACD below its signal line, a peaked RSI, and an increasing MRO — collectively point to downside pressure or range-bound trading that would reconcile price with momentum and oscillator targets. Fundamental strength from a $693M cash position and the completion of a large capital return program reduces event-driven downside but does not negate technical signals; expect price to test the $19.70–$20.25 neighborhood (short-term support near the super-trend lower and lower Bollinger band) before any renewed directional advance. If momentum indicators stabilize and MACD begins rising toward a cross above the signal line, the near-term bias would shift away from corrective risk and favor re-acceleration toward the analyst mean target area noted above.

About Keros Therapeutics, Inc.

Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KROS) develops and commercializes innovative therapeutics targeting disorders associated with dysfunctional signaling of the transforming growth factor-beta family of proteins. Headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts, this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company advances its lead product candidate, KER-050, aimed at treating cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia, particularly in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and myelofibrosis. Keros Therapeutics also progresses with KER-012, currently in Phase II clinical trials, designed to address pulmonary arterial hypertension and cardiovascular disorders. Additionally, KER-065 enters Phase I clinical trials targeting obesity and neuromuscular diseases. The company collaborates with Hansoh (Shanghai) Healthtech Co., Ltd., enhancing its capabilities to develop, manufacture, and commercialize KER-050 and related licensed products. Founded in 2015, Keros Therapeutics commits to advancing its pipeline and addressing unmet medical needs through targeted therapeutic development.



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