Genie Energy Ltd. (NYSE:GNE) Signals Near-Term Upside As Technical Strength Aligns With WMDST Valuation

Genie Energy shows converging technical strength and a WMDST-determined undervaluation that point to potential near-term positive price pressure. Fundamentals reveal revenue expansion alongside margin compression, creating a mixed but actionable signal set for short-term directional moves.

Recent News

On October 17, 2025 the company announced it would report third-quarter 2025 results and host a management call on November 3, 2025. On November 10, 2025 a research note upgrade to “strong-buy” from one research provider circulated. On November 17, 2025 several outlets reported a lowered one-year price target averaging $16.32. On December 13, 2025 at least one outlet published a note showing the same provider adjusting its stance to “buy” from “strong-buy.”

Technical Analysis

ADX/DI+/DI-: ADX registers 46.18, indicating a very strong trend strength; directional forces favor the upside because DI+ shows a dip & reversal (bullish) while DI- decreases (bullish), implying bullish directional momentum can sustain near-term moves toward value realization.

MACD: MACD sits at -0.17 with a decreasing MACD_trend and the MACD equal to its signal line, which signals prevailing bearish momentum in the oscillator even as directional indicators show strength; this divergence suggests momentum may lag price re-rating.

MRO: MRO equals -28.3, a negative reading that indicates price sits below model target and therefore carries potential to increase toward fair value; the magnitude supports a meaningful reversion if technical triggers confirm.

RSI: RSI at 43.05 shows a dip & reversal pattern, signaling an early recovery from recent weakness and scope for additional upside without becoming overbought immediately.

Price vs. Moving Averages and Cloud: The $13.78 close sits below the 200-day average of $16.99 and under the Ichimoku cloud (Senkou A $14.75, Senkou B $14.85), which registers structural bearish context; shorter-term signals—12-day EMA decreasing and price near the lower Bollinger band—show near-term pressure that could reverse if DI+ momentum follows through.

Volatility & Volume: Beta metrics remain muted (42-day 0.79, 52-week 0.47) and recent volume trails the 10-day and 200-day averages, implying moves may require a catalyst—earnings flow or coverage changes—to trigger higher conviction flows.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: EBIT margin equals 6.77%, up 75.63% QoQ but down 46.67% YoY; that margin sits well below the industry peer mean of 28.20% and median of 26.61%, indicating profitability lags peers despite recent quarter-over-quarter improvement.

Revenue & Growth: Total revenue reached $138.32 million with revenue growth of 31.42% and revenue growth YoY of 34.30%, demonstrating robust top-line expansion even as sequential growth reads negative QoQ at -236.23% (reported metric), which suggests timing effects across periods.

Cash Flow & Capital: Operating cash flow equals $13.93 million and free cash flow equals $11.85 million, translating to a free cash flow yield of 2.77% that sits above the industry peer mean of -1.47% (positive vs. a negative peer mean). Free cash flow fell sharply YoY (free cash growth YoY -169.90%) while free cash growth QoQ improved by 14.06%.

Leverage & Coverage: Debt remains extremely low: total debt $8.95 million, debt-to-assets 2.27% and debt-to-equity 4.50%, both far below the industry peer mean levels (debt-to-assets mean ~44.53%, debt-to-equity mean ~166.31%), and interest coverage of 59.62x provides substantial earnings buffer versus interest expense.

Valuation Multiples: P/E at 62.08 and forward P/E near 147.89 reflect earnings scarcity versus price; price/book sits at 2.16x, essentially in line with the industry peer mean of 2.16x and median of 2.27x. Enterprise multiple near 34.08x sits below the peer mean of 46.55x. WMDST’s valuation model classifies the stock as under-valued, consistent with low leverage, positive revenue growth, and modest free cash flow yield.

Earnings Quality & Shareholder Returns: EPS came in at $0.26 versus an estimate of $0.56, an EPS surprise of -53.57%, and dividend coverage remains positive with a dividend payout ratio of 29.65% and dividend yield of 0.467% (dividend rate $0.07531 per share).

Efficiency & Returns: Asset turnover equals 0.356, well above the industry peer mean of 0.047, indicating efficient revenue generation from assets. Return on equity equals 3.39%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 2.97%, though both remain modest in absolute terms.

Valuation Summary: WMDST values the stock as under-valued, driven by conservative leverage, above-peer asset efficiency, and positive revenue growth, offset by compressed margins and a notable EPS shortfall versus estimates.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-03
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-02
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 202.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 13.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -2.08 M
 Change In Working Capital 6.0 M
 Dividends Paid -2.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 5.1 M
 End Period Cash Flow 207.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 138.3 M
 Forward Revenue 15.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 108.3 M
 Depreciation 252.0 K
 Depreciation and Amortization 252.0 K
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 131.4 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 30.0 M
 EBITDA 9.6 M
 EBIT 9.4 M
 Operating Income 6.9 M
 Interest Income 1.8 M
 Interest Expense 157.0 K
 Net Interest Income 1.7 M
 Income Before Tax 9.2 M
 Tax Provision 2.5 M
 Tax Rate 26.8 %
 Net Income 6.7 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 6.7 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.56
 EPS Actual 0.26
 EPS Difference -0.30
 EPS Surprise -53.571 %
 Forward EPS 0.12
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 394.1 M
 Intangible Assets 15.0 M
 Net Tangible Assets 183.8 M
 Total Current Assets 238.2 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 109.8 M
 Cash 109.3 M
 Net Receivables 59.0 M
 Inventory 20.9 M
 Long-Term Investments 84.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 28.1 M
 Short-Term Debt 2.1 M
 Total Current Liabilities 124.9 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 8.9 M
 Total Liabilities 205.3 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 198.8 M
 Retained Earnings 78.7 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 7.49
 Shares Outstanding 26.545 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.21
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 428.4 M
 Enterprise Value 327.6 M
 Enterprise Multiple 34.083
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -63.389 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 63.952 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 63.813
median: 46.642
mean: 46.552
GNE: 34.083
low: 10.243
 EV/R 2.369
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.982
 Asset To Liability 1.92
 Debt To Capital 0.043
 Debt To Assets 0.023
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.74 %
Debt To Assets YoY 3562.903 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.562
mean: 0.445
median: 0.435
low: 0.371
GNE: 0.023
 Debt To Equity 0.045
Debt To Equity QoQ -2.891 %
Debt To Equity YoY 4356.436 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.092
median: 1.729
mean: 1.663
GNE: 0.045
low: 0.014
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.155
Price To Book QoQ -14.436 %
Price To Book YoY 4.223 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.854
median: 2.273
mean: 2.165
GNE: 2.155
low: 0.458
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 62.079
Price To Earnings QoQ 0.0 %
Price To Earnings YoY 46.98 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 222.397
mean: 89.321
median: 74.96
GNE: 62.079
low: 52.412
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.097
Price To Sales QoQ -34.31 %
Price To Sales YoY -20.584 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 17.298
mean: 11.605
median: 11.276
GNE: 3.097
low: 1.895
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 147.893
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S 27.368
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.164
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.356
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 29.776 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 5.667 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA GNE: 0.356
high: 0.063
mean: 0.047
median: 0.045
low: 0.037
 Receivables Turnover 2.3
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 37.142 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 7.423 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.509
GNE: 2.3
median: 1.977
mean: 1.919
low: 0.93
 Inventory Turnover 5.74
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.392 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -45.127 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA GNE: 5.74
high: 4.022
mean: 1.861
median: 1.41
low: 0.518
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 39.682
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 25.776
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -33.813 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 85.417 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 112.251
mean: 29.92
GNE: 25.776
median: 18.655
low: -52.238
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.221
 CapEx To Revenue -0.015
 CapEx To Depreciation -8.258
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 205.5 M
 Net Invested Capital 207.7 M
 Invested Capital 207.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 183.8 M
 Net Working Capital 113.3 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.879
 Current Ratio 1.907
Current Ratio QoQ -4.376 %
Current Ratio YoY -25.612 %
Current Ratio IPRWA GNE: 1.907
high: 1.075
median: 0.845
mean: 0.747
low: 0.3
 Quick Ratio 1.74
Quick Ratio QoQ -5.871 %
Quick Ratio YoY -29.492 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA GNE: 1.74
high: 0.973
median: 0.65
mean: 0.603
low: 0.331
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 0.931
 Cost Of Debt 1.271 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 59.624
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 129.38 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -90.762 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA GNE: 59.624
high: 3.88
mean: 2.686
median: 2.675
low: 1.71
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.009
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 34.961
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 3.373
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.296
 Dividend Rate 0.08
 Dividend Yield 0.005
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.879 %
 Revenue Growth 31.423 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -236.231 %
Revenue Growth YoY 34.298 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 49.057 %
GNE: 31.423 %
mean: 12.764 %
median: 10.057 %
low: -1.946 %
 Earnings Growth 0.0 %
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY -100.0 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 183.582 %
mean: 61.422 %
median: 41.333 %
GNE: 0.0 %
low: -13.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 21.702 %
Gross Margin QoQ -2.721 %
Gross Margin YoY -35.927 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 71.464 %
median: 50.21 %
mean: 48.586 %
low: 26.092 %
GNE: 21.702 %
 EBIT Margin 6.767 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 75.629 %
EBIT Margin YoY -46.666 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 34.326 %
mean: 28.197 %
median: 26.61 %
low: 17.122 %
GNE: 6.767 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.016 %
Return On Sales QoQ 159.091 %
Return On Sales YoY -60.467 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 32.45 %
mean: 25.407 %
median: 23.8 %
low: 14.888 %
GNE: 5.016 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 11.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.766 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -1828.75 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -44.988 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA GNE: 2.766 %
high: 2.413 %
mean: -1.469 %
median: -1.719 %
low: -5.102 %
 Free Cash Growth -1594.451 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 1406.459 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -16990.371 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 595.167 %
median: -37.735 %
mean: -40.475 %
low: -202.959 %
GNE: -1594.451 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.758
 Cash Flow Margin -0.835 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.171
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.735 %
Return On Assets QoQ 136.054 %
Return On Assets YoY -43.485 %
Return On Assets IPRWA GNE: 1.735 %
high: 1.162 %
median: 0.732 %
mean: 0.715 %
low: 0.25 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 3.477 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.034
Return On Equity QoQ 136.872 %
Return On Equity YoY -29.787 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.054
GNE: 0.034
mean: 0.03
median: 0.028
low: 0.01
 DuPont ROE 3.407 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 3.299 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 131.834 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -143.864 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA GNE: 3.299 %
high: 2.205 %
median: 1.613 %
mean: 1.568 %
low: 1.037 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a tactical period of range-bound trading with a bias toward testing higher levels if directional strength from DI+ continues and MRO-driven reversion unfolds. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming earnings flow and analyst coverage revisions; technical confirmation would require MACD stabilization and a move above the Ichimoku cloud or the 20–50 day averages. Low leverage and a positive cash position support resilience during volatility, while margin recovery will determine whether any re-rating sustains. Monitor volume pickup and MACD momentum for conviction; until momentum turns decisively positive, price may oscillate between the lower Bollinger band and the 50-day average.

About Genie Energy Ltd.

Genie Energy Ltd. (NYSE:GNE) is a dynamic player in the energy sector, delivering a diverse array of services that cater to both traditional and renewable energy needs. Headquartered in Newark, New Jersey, Genie Energy operates through two main segments: GRE and Genie Renewables. The company is a key supplier of electricity and natural gas, serving residential and small business customers across the United States and internationally. Beyond conventional energy supply, Genie Energy is committed to advancing sustainable solutions. The company is actively involved in the development, construction, and operation of solar energy projects tailored for commercial and industrial clients. Its expertise extends to energy brokerage and advisory services, ensuring clients receive optimal energy solutions. Genie Energy also champions community solar initiatives, making renewable energy more accessible. With a focus on innovation, the company manufactures and distributes solar panels, and offers comprehensive services in solar installation design and project management. Since its incorporation in 2011, Genie Energy has been at the forefront of the energy transition, blending traditional energy supply with forward-thinking renewable initiatives to meet the evolving demands of the global energy landscape.



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