Recent News
On October 14, 2025, JMP Securities maintained a Market Outperform rating for Goosehead while lowering its price target; subsequent analyst notes through late October and November reflected multiple price-target reductions across firms. On November 25, 2025, BMO Capital revised its target downward citing competitive pressure in Texas. On December 2, 2025, Jefferies initiated coverage with a Strong Buy and a $93 target.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show emerging trend strength: ADX sits at 24.84, indicating an emerging trend that requires confirmation for follow-through; the DI+ peak-and-reversal and the DI- dip-and-reversal both signal bearish directional pressure for the near term, which undermines upside momentum and aligns with the cautious sentiment described above.
MACD sits positive at 0.72 but trails its signal line at 0.94, and the MACD trend has peak-and-reversed; momentum reads as bearish, implying short-term momentum loss that could limit upside toward the WMDST valuation level.
MRO registers 1.59 on the positive side, indicating price sits modestly above the model target and therefore carries mild downside potential; the MRO trend has peak-and-reversed, reinforcing the bias toward mean reversion rather than continuation higher.
RSI near 48.9 and showing a peak-and-reversal indicates neutral-to-slightly-bearish momentum; short-term averages reflect that bias as the 12-day EMA shows a peak-and-reversal while price trades below the 20-day average but above the 50-day average, creating a mixed but risk-on-resisting setup for swing horizons.
Bollinger bands and the super-trend place immediate resistance around the mid-$70s (upper 1x std dev ≈ $77.35; super-trend upper ≈ $77.63), which frames the tactical range for any short-term recovery attempts and ties directly to the constrained upside discussed in the introduction.
Fundamental Analysis
Operating performance shows strength in operating margin: EBIT equals $21,068,000 with an EBIT margin of 23.30%, above the industry peer mean EBIT margin of 19.23% and above the industry peer median of 19.64%, supporting the valuation view. EBIT margin expanded QoQ by 32.95% and improved YoY by 7.05%, indicating operating leverage on recent revenue trends.
Revenue dynamics present a mixed profile: YoY revenue growth stands at 55.18%, a strong top-line expansion, while sequential revenue change reads -115.65% QoQ, indicating a sharp sequential swing that requires context from seasonal or timing items. Free cash flow equals $20,023,000 with a free cash flow yield of 1.01%, which fell YoY by 19.79% and sits below the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 1.54%.
Profitability and returns show dispersion: return on assets equals 1.88%, above the industry peer mean of 0.87%, while return on equity equals -7.53%, below the industry peer mean of 3.84%—the negative equity base and retained earnings deficit drive the ROE shortfall despite positive asset returns.
Leverage and balance-sheet metrics raise caution: debt-to-assets equals 86.88%, materially above the industry peer mean of 28.96% and above the industry peer high of 45.09%; net debt on the balance sheet equals $241,410,000 even as cash and short-term investments total $51,587,000. Book value per share reads negative at -$4.20, producing a negative price-to-book of -18.98; negative equity explains the anomalous P/B outcome rather than a conventional comparability issue.
Market multiples show stretched investor expectations: forward PE ≈ 163.84 and trailing PE ≈ 173.45, both slightly above the industry peer mean forward and trailing multiples, while the price-to-sales ratio at 22.03 sits modestly above the industry peer mean of 18.27. EPS came in at $0.46 versus an estimate of $0.46, producing a negligible surprise of about 0.51%.
Valuation conclusion: the current valuation as determined by WMDST registers as under-valued on a forward-looking basis, supported by above-peer EBIT margin and positive asset returns, but elevated leverage, negative book equity, and compressed free-cash-yield temper near-term upside and increase sensitivity to macro or sector-specific shocks.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-22 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-21 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 95.6 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 24.2 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -4.18 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 840.0 K | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -41.10 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 54.5 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 90.4 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 38.2 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | — | |
| Depreciation | $ 3.2 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 3.2 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 75.3 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | — | |
| EBITDA | — | |
| EBIT | $ 21.1 M | |
| Operating Income | — | |
| Interest Income | $ 162.0 K | |
| Interest Expense | $ 6.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -5.97 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 15.1 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 2.4 M | |
| Tax Rate | 16.0 % | |
| Net Income | $ 7.9 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 12.7 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.46 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.46 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.00 | |
| EPS Surprise | 0.51 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.54 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 403.6 M | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 34.4 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -139.35 M | |
| Total Current Assets | — | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 51.6 M | |
| Cash | $ 51.6 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 15.1 M | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | — | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 28.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 3.0 M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | — | |
| Net Debt | $ 241.4 M | |
| Total Debt | $ 350.6 M | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 574.3 M | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ -104.98 M | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -145.79 M | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ -4.20 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.967 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 3.62 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 2.0 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 2.3 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | — | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | — | |
| EV/R | 25.334 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | -3.845 | |
| Asset To Liability | 0.703 | |
| Debt To Capital | 1.427 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.869 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 8.048 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 2991.851 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | GSHD: 0.869 high: 0.451 median: 0.341 mean: 0.29 low: 0.011 |
|
| Debt To Equity | -3.34 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -25.225 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | -2036.685 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 2.219 median: 1.414 mean: 1.264 low: 0.016 GSHD: -3.34 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | -18.975 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -43.474 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | -156.069 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 11.503 median: 6.618 mean: 5.993 low: 1.199 GSHD: -18.975 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 173.447 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | -18.332 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | 7.026 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 284.916 GSHD: 173.447 mean: 162.564 median: 110.627 low: -8.661 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -28.332 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 22.027 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | -21.494 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -12.952 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 22.61 GSHD: 22.027 median: 19.09 mean: 18.268 low: 1.112 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 163.841 | |
| Forward PE/G | -26.763 | |
| Forward P/S | 52.408 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -7.298 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.215 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -2.795 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -3.962 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.268 GSHD: 0.215 mean: 0.077 median: 0.076 low: 0.042 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 6.14 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -1.515 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 25.666 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | GSHD: 6.14 high: 3.22 mean: 0.876 median: 0.846 low: 0.662 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 14.863 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 14.863 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 28.284 mean: 18.095 median: 15.267 GSHD: 14.863 low: -5.695 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | — | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.046 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.309 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 185.0 M | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 188.0 M | |
| Invested Capital | $ 188.0 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ -139.35 M | |
| Net Working Capital | — | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio | — | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Current Ratio YoY | — | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | — | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.43 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.527 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 34.922 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -57.22 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.0 mean: 4.423 median: 4.11 GSHD: 3.527 low: -3.6 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | — | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | — | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -7.557 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -3.82 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -115.654 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 5517.647 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 24.099 % mean: -0.351 % median: -3.803 % GSHD: -3.82 % low: -19.137 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -6.122 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -106.92 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -137.607 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 7.343 % GSHD: -6.122 % mean: -27.497 % median: -31.985 % low: -55.365 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | — | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | — | |
| Gross Margin YoY | — | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | — | |
| EBIT Margin | 23.296 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 32.953 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 7.049 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 26.516 % GSHD: 23.296 % median: 19.635 % mean: 19.227 % low: -36.265 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | — | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | — | |
| Return On Sales YoY | — | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | — | |
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 20.0 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.005 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 9.358 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -19.792 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 2.309 % mean: 1.54 % median: 1.414 % GSHD: 1.005 % low: -9.385 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -17.428 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -117.455 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | -133.097 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 104.95 % median: 45.806 % mean: 42.088 % GSHD: -17.428 % low: -53.402 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 2.532 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 13.297 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.521 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 1.882 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 55.153 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -13.312 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | GSHD: 1.882 % high: 1.273 % mean: 0.871 % median: 0.867 % low: -2.48 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | — | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.075 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 14.955 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -158.147 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.108 median: 0.049 mean: 0.038 GSHD: -0.075 low: -0.172 |
|
| DuPont ROE | -8.615 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 9.412 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 50.279 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -124.73 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | GSHD: 9.412 % high: 2.8 % median: 2.556 % mean: 2.169 % low: 1.103 % |
|