Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) Expands Routes, Driving Near-Term Passenger Momentum

Network expansion and rising passenger volumes create clear near-term demand tailwinds for Allegiant, even as leverage and margin pressures constrain valuation upside.

Recent News

On November 25, 2025 Allegiant published preliminary October traffic showing scheduled-service passengers up 27.4% year-over-year and a load factor of 81.9%. On November 19–late November 2025 the airline announced route growth including multiple new nonstop services to Gulf Shores and resumed service at Huntsville International Airport, with additional new routes planned for 2026. Subsequent coverage detailed a broader network expansion spanning dozens of nonstop routes and promotional fares for 2026 schedules.

Technical Analysis

ADX / DI+/DI-: ADX at 36.45 signals a strong directional move. DI+ sits at 30.67 but shows a peak-and-reverse, which indicates a shift away from prior bullish dominance; DI- at 11.29 shows a dip-and-reverse that also points toward increasing downside pressure. Together, the directional indicators argue that the current trend carries measurable strength while momentum has begun to tilt toward sellers, which raises the risk of a pullback against the stock’s recent gains.

MACD: MACD reads 4.81 versus a signal line at 4.30, so momentum remains above its trigger, but the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, signaling that bullish momentum has started to roll over. That combination often precedes short-term momentum losses even when the indicator sits above its signal line.

MRO: MRO at 37.59 (positive) indicates the market price trades above the regression target and therefore carries downside potential toward the model target; the MRO trend also peaked and reversed, reinforcing the immediate risk of mean reversion into nearer-term valuation levels.

RSI: RSI at 61.2 and rising reflects continued buying pressure without crossing extreme overbought levels; rising RSI alongside signals that argue for weakening momentum suggests a probable consolidation phase rather than a clean breakout continuation.

Price vs Moving Averages and Bands: Closing price $85.74 sits above the 12-day EMA ($83.13, increasing), the 20-day average ($82.78) and well above the 50-day ($70.50) and 200-day ($58.79) averages. Price trades near the 1x Bollinger upper band ($86.79), indicating short-term upside exhaustion. Ichimoku lines show the TenkanSen above the KijunSen, which supports trend bias, but several momentum indicators imply limited near-term follow-through.

Volatility & Volume: Beta reads ~2.0 and 42-day volatility higher than 52-week, signaling above-average price swings. Recent session volume (215,589) fell below 10-, 50- and 200-day averages, which weakens the conviction behind the latest price levels and increases the probability of volatility-driven retracement.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: Total revenue for the period registers $561,932,000 with gross margin at 5.862% and operating margin at -4.221%; EBIT at -$17,204,000 produces an EBIT margin of -3.062%. QoQ, EBIT margin contracted by 63.206%; YoY, EBIT margin improved by 5.623%.

Earnings Per Share: Reported EPS came in at -$2.09 versus an estimate of -$1.80, an EPS surprise of -16.111%, reflecting a larger-than-expected loss for the period.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Operating cash flow stood negative at -$6,051,000 with free cash flow of -$121,733,000 and a free cash flow yield of -10.835%. Cash and short-term investments total $956,716,000 while beginning-period cash flow and end-period cash flow moved from $227,901,000 to $344,830,000, indicating cash inflow dynamics within the period but persistent free-cash outflow. Current ratio 0.97633 (97.633%) and cash ratio 0.83799 (83.799%) remain below conventional cushion thresholds, though short-term liquidity includes sizeable cash holdings.

Leverage: Total debt approximates $2,125,870,000 with net debt at $1,740,223,000; debt-to-assets equals 48.401% and debt-to-equity equals 209.372% (2.09x). Debt-to-EBITDA sits at about 50.92x, while interest coverage reads -0.492 (negative), indicating earnings insufficient to cover interest expense and signalling material leverage strain relative to EBITDA generation.

Revenue & Growth: YoY revenue growth measures 18.346%; QoQ revenue growth presented at 1,233.911% (per supplied metric). Reported revenue-per-share $30.666. Overall earnings growth declined by 42.265% and YoY earnings growth fell by 80.261%, highlighting volatile profit dynamics despite passenger traffic gains.

Valuation & Peer Context: Price-to-book sits at 1.1065, price-to-sales at 1.9994, and the enterprise value to revenue multiple and other valuation signals led WMDST to classify the stock as over-valued. Compared with the industry peer mean for EBIT margin (23.415% mean, 27.275% median), Allegiant’s EBIT margin at -3.062% sits well below peer benchmarks, indicating material margin shortfall relative to typical passenger-airline peers. The company’s leverage metrics and negative free cash flow weigh on intrinsic valuation despite improving traffic trends.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-04
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-03
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 227.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow -6.05 M
 Capital Expenditures -115.68 M
 Change In Working Capital -2.58 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 116.9 M
 End Period Cash Flow 344.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 561.9 M
 Forward Revenue -92.93 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 529.0 M
 Depreciation 59.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 59.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 585.6 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 32.9 M
 EBITDA 41.7 M
 EBIT -17.20 M
 Operating Income -23.72 M
 Interest Income 10.1 M
 Interest Expense 35.0 M
 Net Interest Income -24.84 M
 Income Before Tax -52.15 M
 Tax Provision -8.58 M
 Tax Rate 16.5 %
 Net Income -43.57 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -43.57 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -1.80
 EPS Actual -2.09
 EPS Difference -0.29
 EPS Surprise -16.111 %
 Forward EPS 1.57
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 4.4 B
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Total Current Assets 1.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 956.7 M
 Cash 316.2 M
 Net Receivables 57.2 M
 Inventory 33.8 M
 Long-Term Investments 48.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 55.3 M
 Short-Term Debt 270.6 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.1 B
 Net Debt 1.7 B
 Total Debt 2.1 B
 Total Liabilities 3.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.0 B
 Retained Earnings 926.6 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 55.41
 Shares Outstanding 18.324 M
 Revenue Per-Share 30.67
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.1 B
 Enterprise Value 2.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 54.917
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -71.891 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 311.22 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 128.246
ALGT: 54.917
mean: 39.654
median: 27.904
low: -116.264
 EV/R 4.08
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.326
 Asset To Liability 1.301
 Debt To Capital 0.677
 Debt To Assets 0.484
Debt To Assets QoQ 4.457 %
Debt To Assets YoY 450.637 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.836
ALGT: 0.484
mean: 0.367
median: 0.342
low: 0.09
 Debt To Equity 2.094
Debt To Equity QoQ 8.705 %
Debt To Equity YoY 546.649 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 20.972
mean: 2.482
ALGT: 2.094
median: 1.115
low: -9.102
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.107
Price To Book QoQ 18.371 %
Price To Book YoY 47.633 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.814
mean: 3.528
median: 2.197
ALGT: 1.107
low: -3.452
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -29.337
Price To Earnings QoQ 96.06 %
Price To Earnings YoY 11.686 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 192.156
mean: 36.296
median: 33.289
ALGT: -29.337
low: -71.163
 PE/G Ratio 0.694
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.999
Price To Sales QoQ 39.639 %
Price To Sales YoY 15.371 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 11.583
median: 8.817
mean: 6.669
ALGT: 1.999
low: 0.583
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 40.631
Forward PE/G -0.961
Forward P/S -13.139
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.787
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.128
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -17.454 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 10.318 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.318
median: 0.211
mean: 0.206
ALGT: 0.128
low: 0.022
 Receivables Turnover 8.509
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.957 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 5.035 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 13.463
ALGT: 8.509
mean: 4.85
median: 4.526
low: 1.615
 Inventory Turnover 15.652
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -7.706 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 8.026 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 44.946
ALGT: 15.652
mean: 8.567
median: 6.892
low: 0.194
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 10.724
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 6.166
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 26.818 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -6.757 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 339.481
ALGT: 6.166
mean: 5.092
median: -13.786
low: -237.665
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -20.793
 CapEx To Revenue -0.206
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.962
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 3.1 B
 Invested Capital 3.1 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.0 B
 Net Working Capital -27.02 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.838
 Current Ratio 0.976
Current Ratio QoQ -11.517 %
Current Ratio YoY 29.521 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.843
mean: 1.364
ALGT: 0.976
median: 0.714
low: 0.25
 Quick Ratio 0.947
Quick Ratio QoQ -11.734 %
Quick Ratio YoY 30.591 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 3.287
mean: 1.113
ALGT: 0.947
median: 0.713
low: 0.269
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 50.921
 Cost Of Debt 1.403 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -0.492
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -73.235 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -18.033 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 15.361
mean: 6.112
median: 5.514
ALGT: -0.492
low: -14.2
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.017
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 9.959
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.071 %
 Revenue Growth -18.488 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 1233.911 %
Revenue Growth YoY 18.346 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 26.335 %
mean: 10.5 %
median: 0.15 %
ALGT: -18.488 %
low: -33.703 %
 Earnings Growth -42.265 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -85.912 %
Earnings Growth YoY -80.261 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 152.941 %
mean: 22.825 %
median: -8.257 %
ALGT: -42.265 %
low: -118.681 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 5.862 %
Gross Margin QoQ -65.857 %
Gross Margin YoY -31.173 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 77.926 %
median: 37.307 %
mean: 33.256 %
ALGT: 5.862 %
low: -3.273 %
 EBIT Margin -3.062 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -63.206 %
EBIT Margin YoY 5.623 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 42.202 %
median: 27.275 %
mean: 23.415 %
ALGT: -3.062 %
low: -82.339 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -4.221 %
Return On Sales QoQ -157.695 %
Return On Sales YoY 45.602 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 46.549 %
median: 23.25 %
mean: 22.635 %
ALGT: -4.221 %
low: -56.561 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -121.73 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -10.835 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 918.327 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 267.662 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.783 %
median: -0.267 %
mean: -0.367 %
ALGT: -10.835 %
low: -26.041 %
 Free Cash Growth 1059.031 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -1071.749 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -308.286 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA ALGT: 1059.031 %
high: 214.882 %
mean: -74.717 %
median: -109.135 %
low: -287.931 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.794
 Cash Flow Margin 3.379 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.436
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.992 %
Return On Assets QoQ -32.333 %
Return On Assets YoY 30.698 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 9.974 %
mean: 4.03 %
median: 1.793 %
ALGT: -0.992 %
low: -8.463 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.529 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.043
Return On Equity QoQ -30.449 %
Return On Equity YoY 51.661 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.466
mean: 0.136
median: 0.075
ALGT: -0.043
low: -0.514
 DuPont ROE -4.207 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.468 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -66.548 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -111.471 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 5.629 %
mean: 3.228 %
median: 2.917 %
ALGT: -0.468 %
low: -5.447 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect elevated directional risk over the next six weeks. Network expansion and accelerating passenger volumes provide demand support and keep upside accessible, but momentum indicators (MACD peak reversal, MRO positive and reversing, DI+ peak reversal) and stretched price near the upper Bollinger band increase the probability of a corrective phase or sideways consolidation. High beta and below-average recent volume suggest moves will carry larger amplitudes. Key technical reference points include the short-term support band near $80.08 (super trend lower) and the 20-day average around $82.78, with resistance clustering near the Bollinger upper band and the $86–$88 intraday highs. Given the leverage profile, negative free cash flow and compressed margins versus the industry peer mean, any sustained upside likely requires both continued load-factor improvement and visible margin recovery in subsequent reports.

About Allegiant Travel Company

Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) connects underserved U.S. cities with popular vacation destinations, focusing on affordability and convenience. Established in 1997 and based in Las Vegas, Nevada, Allegiant offers non-stop flights using a fleet of Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company provides a range of air-related services, including baggage handling, seat selection, and in-flight refreshments, ensuring a comfortable journey for passengers. In addition to air travel, Allegiant facilitates a comprehensive travel experience by offering third-party products such as hotel accommodations and ground transportation options, including rental cars and shuttles. This integrated approach simplifies vacation planning for travelers. The company also engages in air transportation services through fixed fee agreements and provides charter services for various occasions. Expanding beyond traditional travel services, Allegiant owns and operates a golf course, adding a unique leisure component to its offerings. With its focus on making travel accessible and affordable, Allegiant Travel Company continues to serve as a key player in the leisure travel industry, catering to the needs of travelers across the United States.



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