Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) Accelerates Luxury Expansion While Near-Term Momentum Builds

Lithia Motors pairs an aggressive luxury-acquisition cadence with constructive technical momentum, while WMDST’s valuation flags the shares as over-valued.

Recent News

On November 11, 2025 Lithia announced acquisitions of Porsche Beverly Hills and Audi Santa Monica, adding roughly $450 million of expected annualized revenue and expanding its luxury mix. On October 14, 2025 Lithia added Stivers Decatur Subaru in Atlanta, contributing about $100 million of expected annualized revenue and increasing Southeast density.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX/DI+/DI-): ADX at 20.96 indicates an emerging trend; DI+ increasing while DI- decreasing signals a bullish directional bias that supports near-term upside relative to the current valuation.

MACD: MACD at 9.63 and rising, above the signal line at 6.94, represents a bullish momentum crossover that reinforces the positive price bias implied by the directional indicators.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 20.91 sits positive, indicating price trading above the model target and implying elevated downside potential if momentum normalizes; that potential tempers the bullish signals from MACD and DI+.

RSI: RSI at 54.61 and rising shows mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions, aligning with a constructive but not extended short-term setup.

Price Versus Moving Averages & Ichimoku: Closing price $344.09 trades above the 12‑day EMA ($336.95), 26‑day EMA ($326.15), 20‑day average ($334.36) and 200‑day average ($313.17); Tenkan at $335.35 sits below price, reinforcing the short-term bullish posture relative to the longer-term average.

Bollinger Bands & SuperTrend: Price sits near the upper 1x Bollinger band ($349.04) with the SuperTrend lower support at $331.90, signaling proximity to short-term resistance while leaving a defined technical support beneath current levels.

Volume & Volatility: Daily volume (232,341) runs below the 10‑day (281,540) and 50/200‑day averages (~313k), suggesting limited participation behind the recent move; 42‑day beta 1.28 signals above‑average short-term volatility versus the broader market.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability & Margins: EBIT of $473.8M yields an EBIT margin of 4.94%, up 8.52% year-over-year but down 3.87% quarter-over-quarter; that margin sits below the industry peer mean of 13.17% and below the industry peer median of 14.80%, indicating constrained operating leverage versus peers.

Earnings and Guidance Signals: Reported EPS $9.50 exceeded the estimate $8.61 by $0.89, an EPS surprise of 10.34%, while forward EPS sits at $8.79 and forward PE near 36.31; the EPS beat supports the near-term sentiment reflected in technical momentum but does not fully reconcile with valuation metrics.

Growth Metrics: Earnings growth registers at 33.68% year-over-year, above the industry peer mean of 15.71% and the peer median of 25.81%, while revenue growth shows ambiguity—reported revenue growth at 4.41% versus revenue growth year-over-year of -43.66%—underscoring mixed top-line dynamics across periods.

Cash Flow & Liquidity: Free cash flow totaled -$70.8M with free cash flow yield at -0.86% and operating cash flow of $9.3M; free cash flow trends show quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year deterioration, raising liquidity sensitivity despite $404.4M in cash and short-term investments.

Leverage & Coverage: Total debt $14.30B and net debt $13.29B exceed market capitalization ($8.24B), producing debt-to-equity of 2.05x and debt-to-EBITDA of 24.75x; interest coverage of 3.89x provides a cushion but elevated leverage materially increases capital-structure risk relative to the earnings profile.

Returns: Return on equity stands at 3.67%—above the industry peer mean of 2.16% but below the peer median of 4.47%—while return on assets at 1.08% stays below the industry peer mean of 2.81%, indicating modest asset efficiency given current scale.

Valuation Conclusion: WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting the combination of elevated multiples (PE ~31.63; forward PE ~36.31), negative free cash flow yield, and significant leverage that outweigh the EPS beat and strong earnings growth.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-22
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-21
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 478.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow 9.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -80.10 M
 Change In Working Capital -368.70 M
 Dividends Paid -14.30 M
 Cash Flow Delta -22.50 M
 End Period Cash Flow 455.6 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 9.6 B
 Forward Revenue 2.1 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 8.1 B
 Depreciation 104.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 104.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 9.2 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.5 B
 EBITDA 577.8 M
 EBIT 473.8 M
 Operating Income 405.2 M
 Interest Income 20.1 M
 Interest Expense 121.7 M
 Net Interest Income -101.60 M
 Income Before Tax 352.1 M
 Tax Provision 93.9 M
 Tax Rate 26.669 %
 Net Income 256.1 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 258.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 8.61
 EPS Actual 9.50
 EPS Difference 0.89
 EPS Surprise 10.337 %
 Forward EPS 8.79
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 24.2 B
 Intangible Assets 5.2 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.7 B
 Total Current Assets 7.9 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 404.4 M
 Cash 404.4 M
 Net Receivables 158.1 M
 Inventory 6.1 B
 Long-Term Investments 1.3 B
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 371.4 M
 Short-Term Debt 5.0 B
 Total Current Liabilities 6.5 B
 Net Debt 13.3 B
 Total Debt 14.3 B
 Total Liabilities 17.1 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 7.0 B
 Retained Earnings 6.2 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 268.40
 Shares Outstanding 25.700 M
 Revenue Per-Share 368.14
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 8.2 B
 Enterprise Value 22.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 38.315
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 0.762 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 74.563 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 193.836
mean: 59.879
median: 54.088
LAD: 38.315
low: -60.697
 EV/R 2.31
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.458
 Asset To Liability 1.409
 Debt To Capital 0.672
 Debt To Assets 0.592
Debt To Assets QoQ -0.034 %
Debt To Assets YoY 152.382 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.021
LAD: 0.592
median: 0.525
mean: 0.494
low: 0.116
 Debt To Equity 2.047
Debt To Equity QoQ -0.502 %
Debt To Equity YoY 139.511 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.017
LAD: 2.047
median: 0.941
mean: 0.464
low: -3.433
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.18
Price To Book QoQ -3.784 %
Price To Book YoY 8.008 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 9.42
mean: 3.709
median: 2.613
LAD: 1.18
low: -4.629
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 31.631
Price To Earnings QoQ -23.181 %
Price To Earnings YoY -4.089 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 244.435
median: 82.476
mean: 77.565
LAD: 31.631
low: -147.847
 PE/G Ratio 0.939
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.86
Price To Sales QoQ -4.728 %
Price To Sales YoY 14.158 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 16.979
mean: 7.27
median: 6.123
LAD: 0.86
low: 0.164
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 36.307
Forward PE/G 1.078
Forward P/S 3.851
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 0.086
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.402
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.145 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.111 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.676
LAD: 0.402
mean: 0.316
median: 0.291
low: 0.086
 Receivables Turnover 60.289
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.168 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 23.821 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 93.227
LAD: 60.289
mean: 12.763
median: 8.425
low: 0.318
 Inventory Turnover 1.371
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.923 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 6.295 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.491
LAD: 1.371
mean: 0.77
median: 0.723
low: 0.204
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 1.514
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 66.611
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 1.268 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -9.775 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 200.951
LAD: 66.611
median: 11.907
mean: 8.479
low: -94.879
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 6.709
 CapEx To Revenue -0.008
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.77
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 15.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 20.7 B
 Invested Capital 20.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.7 B
 Net Working Capital 1.4 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.062
 Current Ratio 1.219
Current Ratio QoQ 3.422 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.44 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 3.829
LAD: 1.219
mean: 1.207
median: 1.023
low: 0.15
 Quick Ratio 0.289
Quick Ratio QoQ -6.921 %
Quick Ratio YoY -4.091 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.234
mean: 0.406
LAD: 0.289
median: 0.207
low: 0.074
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 24.749
 Cost Of Debt 0.633 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.893
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 54.655 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 27.551 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 76.11
mean: 14.809
median: 7.924
LAD: 3.893
low: -23.158
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.01
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 4.274
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 17.909
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.056
 Dividend Rate 0.55
 Dividend Yield 0.002
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.899 %
 Revenue Growth 4.409 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 8378.846 %
Revenue Growth YoY -43.655 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 50.0 %
median: 9.382 %
LAD: 4.409 %
mean: -0.261 %
low: -57.432 %
 Earnings Growth 33.681 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -2118.035 %
Earnings Growth YoY 16.928 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 250.0 %
LAD: 33.681 %
median: 25.806 %
mean: 15.707 %
low: -413.636 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 15.497 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.846 %
Gross Margin YoY 0.473 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.246 %
median: 44.264 %
mean: 41.645 %
LAD: 15.497 %
low: 7.163 %
 EBIT Margin 4.944 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -3.869 %
EBIT Margin YoY 8.516 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 20.408 %
median: 14.796 %
mean: 13.168 %
LAD: 4.944 %
low: -21.084 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 4.228 %
Return On Sales QoQ -17.791 %
Return On Sales YoY -7.199 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 20.656 %
median: 15.239 %
mean: 13.257 %
LAD: 4.228 %
low: -21.084 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -70.80 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.859 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -128.09 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -78.546 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 12.388 %
median: 0.648 %
mean: 0.403 %
LAD: -0.859 %
low: -30.926 %
 Free Cash Growth -127.94 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -91.647 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -44.584 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 290.52 %
median: -2.575 %
mean: -32.44 %
LAD: -127.94 %
low: -376.591 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.276
 Cash Flow Margin 0.668 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.25
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.075 %
Return On Assets QoQ 19.577 %
Return On Assets YoY 13.877 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.121 %
median: 3.312 %
mean: 2.813 %
LAD: 1.075 %
low: -7.954 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.685 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.037
Return On Equity QoQ 18.258 %
Return On Equity YoY 8.977 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.225
median: 0.045
LAD: 0.037
mean: 0.022
low: -0.288
 DuPont ROE 3.726 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.68 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -3.78 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -75.141 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 15.529 %
median: 10.259 %
mean: 8.687 %
LAD: 1.68 %
low: -13.266 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term technicals favor a modest bullish bias: rising DI+, a MACD crossover, price above short- and long-term EMAs, and RSI in a neutral-rising range. However, MRO’s positive reading (20.91) signals the price sits above its model target and therefore faces heightened pullback risk if momentum cools. Volume underperformance reduces conviction behind recent gains; support resides near the SuperTrend lower level ($331.90) and the 20‑day average ($334.36), while resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger boundary and recent intraday highs. Fundamental risks—negative free cash flow, high net debt versus market cap, and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 25x—raise the probability of volatility from any adverse macro or industry development. Expect price action that remains momentum‑driven but vulnerable to mean reversion unless participation and cash‑flow signals improve.

About Lithia Motors, Inc.

Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) functions as a prominent automotive retailer with a global presence. The company divides its operations into two primary segments: Vehicle Operations and Financing Operations. Within the Vehicle Operations segment, Lithia Motors sells both new and pre-owned vehicles, while also offering essential services such as parts, repair, and maintenance. Additionally, this segment facilitates vehicle financing and provides insurance products, ensuring a comprehensive automotive experience for customers. The Financing Operations segment focuses on offering financial solutions to customers purchasing or leasing vehicles. Through its Driveway and Greencars brands, Lithia Motors extends its reach via a robust network of physical locations, alongside e-commerce platforms, enhancing accessibility and convenience for consumers. Founded in 1946, Lithia Motors has established its headquarters in Medford, Oregon, and continues to expand its influence in the automotive retail industry. By integrating traditional retail methods with digital innovation, Lithia Motors effectively caters to the diverse needs of its customer base.



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