CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) Accelerates Revenue After Contract Wins; Near-Term Momentum Likely

CoreCivic shows a constructive near-term setup driven by freshly awarded contracts and balance-sheet moves that reinforce liquidity and buyback capacity. Technical momentum and valuation gaps create a short-window bias for further upside while risks from leverage and mixed quarterly dynamics persist.

Recent News

On September 29 and October 1, 2025 the company announced multiple contract awards to reactivate idle facilities, collectively expected to add hundreds of millions in annual revenue once fully activated. On November 10, 2025 the board increased the repurchase authorization by $200 million, raising the total program to $700 million. On December 1, 2025 management amended the revolving credit facility, expanding capacity and increasing available borrowing to $575 million.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show an emerging trend: ADX at 21.34 signals an emerging trend rather than a strong one, implying current price movement carries limited directional conviction.

DI+ sits at 31.15 and shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which represents a bearish shift in directional pressure; DI- at 18.57 is decreasing, which supports bullish bias from declining downside pressure but does not negate the DI+ reversal.

MACD registers 0.10 with the MACD line rising above the signal at -0.12; that crossover constitutes a bullish momentum signal and aligns with short-term upside pressure on price.

MRO reads -11.14 and trends higher; the negative level implies the market price remains below the model target and therefore carries potential upside pressure as the oscillator moves toward zero.

RSI at 47.9 and rising reflects improving momentum without overbought conditions, supporting further consolidation or modest gains rather than an immediate extension.

Price sits at $18.78, above the 20-day average ($17.93) and the 50-day average ($18.13), while remaining below the 200-day average ($20.18); that configuration indicates short-term strength inside a longer-term neutral-to-slightly-bearish frame. The 12-day EMA trend rises, reinforcing the short-term bias.

Bollinger positioning shows price just above the 1x upper band ($18.73) and below the 2x upper band ($19.53), which signals a modest premium to short-run volatility rather than extreme extension. The super trend lower at $17.49 provides a near-term structural support reference.

Volatility measures diverge: 42-day beta at 1.35 points to elevated recent sensitivity to market moves, while the 52-week beta of 0.65 reflects lower longer-term market correlation; expect heightened short-term swings relative to the year-long baseline.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Top-line and segment drivers: total revenue equals $580,437,000 with YoY revenue growth of 25.54% while sequential revenue fell 22.52% QoQ; the strong year-over-year expansion links to recent contract activations but the large QoQ swing indicates timing and activation differences across quarters.

Profitability shows operating margin at 8.994% and EBIT margin at 9.163%. EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 33.50% and below the industry peer median of 22.76%, signaling thinner operating profitability versus specialized-REIT peers. EBIT margin declined 23.90% QoQ and slipped 2.46% YoY, reflecting margin pressure quarter-to-quarter.

Earnings per share came in at $0.24 versus an estimate of $0.26, producing an EPS surprise of -7.69%. Forward EPS rests at $0.21 with a forward P/E near 99.0, while trailing P/E equals 81.47; those elevated multiples reflect market expectations priced into a relatively modest current absolute EPS level.

Cash flow and liquidity: operating cash flow reached $53,775,000 while free cash flow measured $15,561,000; free cash flow yield equals 0.76% and sits above the industry peer mean of 0.59%, indicating a marginally healthier conversion on a peer-adjusted basis. Cash and short-term investments total $56,551,000 and the current ratio stands at 1.41, which provides short-term coverage though the cash ratio remains low at 0.17.

Leverage and coverage show total debt at $1,043,111,000 and net debt of $986,560,000, producing debt-to-EBITDA around 12.05 and an interest-coverage ratio near 3.20. Debt-to-equity at 0.71 sits in line with the industry peer mean of approximately 0.70, but the elevated debt-to-EBITDA highlights material leverage relative to earnings and reduces flexibility in adverse scenarios.

Operational efficiency: asset turnover equals 0.1878 and sits above the industry peer mean of 0.0526, indicating relatively efficient revenue generation from assets. Return on equity registers 1.79% and return on assets 0.85%, both modest absolute returns consistent with the capital-heavy nature of the business.

WMDST valuation conclusion: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. The valuation judgment reflects the combination of contract-driven revenue upside, expanded buyback capacity, and the company’s current price/multiple profile despite leverage considerations and recent QoQ volatility.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 143.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 53.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -38.21 M
 Change In Working Capital -18.57 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -71.18 M
 End Period Cash Flow 71.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 580.4 M
 Forward Revenue 122.1 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 449.6 M
 Depreciation 33.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 33.4 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 528.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 130.9 M
 EBITDA 86.6 M
 EBIT 53.2 M
 Operating Income 52.2 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 16.6 M
 Net Interest Income -16.63 M
 Income Before Tax 36.6 M
 Tax Provision 10.3 M
 Tax Rate 28.039 %
 Net Income 26.3 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 26.3 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.26
 EPS Actual 0.24
 EPS Difference -0.02
 EPS Surprise -7.692 %
 Forward EPS 0.21
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.1 B
 Intangible Assets 8.6 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.5 B
 Total Current Assets 471.6 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 56.6 M
 Cash 56.6 M
 Net Receivables 351.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 325.8 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 319.6 M
 Short-Term Debt 14.8 M
 Total Current Liabilities 334.4 M
 Net Debt 986.6 M
 Total Debt 1.0 B
 Total Liabilities 1.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.5 B
 Retained Earnings -150.01 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 13.95
 Shares Outstanding 105.383 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.51
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.1 B
 Enterprise Value 3.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 35.196
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 8.435 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 99.519 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 166.393
median: 90.927
mean: 86.551
CXW: 35.196
low: 6.022
 EV/R 5.25
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.115
 Asset To Liability 1.897
 Debt To Capital 0.415
 Debt To Assets 0.335
Debt To Assets QoQ 0.954 %
Debt To Assets YoY 8080.244 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.334
median: 0.705
mean: 0.666
CXW: 0.335
low: 0.104
 Debt To Equity 0.709
Debt To Equity QoQ 2.709 %
Debt To Equity YoY 8657.654 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.64
median: 0.875
CXW: 0.709
mean: 0.7
low: -3.043
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.401
Price To Book QoQ -6.861 %
Price To Book YoY 39.845 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.559
mean: 2.899
median: 2.629
CXW: 1.401
low: -4.36
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 81.472
Price To Earnings QoQ 40.184 %
Price To Earnings YoY 15.394 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 502.419
mean: 214.437
median: 186.142
CXW: 81.472
low: -83.206
 PE/G Ratio -2.444
 Price To Sales (P/S) 3.55
Price To Sales QoQ -14.057 %
Price To Sales YoY 17.97 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 40.655
median: 33.826
mean: 31.568
CXW: 3.55
low: 2.052
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 98.999
Forward PE/G -2.97
Forward P/S 16.881
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -2.281
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.188
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.976 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 11.118 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA CXW: 0.188
high: 0.183
mean: 0.053
median: 0.043
low: -0.0
 Receivables Turnover 1.781
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.615 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -2.447 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 14.187
mean: 2.808
median: 2.031
CXW: 1.781
low: -0.544
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 51.237
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 51.237
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 96.791
CXW: 51.237
median: -7.374
mean: -58.018
low: -257.611
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 4.231
 CapEx To Revenue -0.066
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.145
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.5 B
 Net Working Capital 137.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.169
 Current Ratio 1.41
Current Ratio QoQ -12.051 %
Current Ratio YoY -6.899 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.81
CXW: 1.41
mean: 0.997
median: 0.659
low: 0.259
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 12.049
 Cost Of Debt 1.16 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.199
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -38.102 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 10.816 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 9.909
median: 3.648
CXW: 3.199
mean: 3.036
low: -1.735
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.026
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.253 %
 Revenue Growth 7.855 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -22.519 %
Revenue Growth YoY 2553.716 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 66.636 %
CXW: 7.855 %
mean: 3.533 %
median: 2.66 %
low: -8.864 %
 Earnings Growth -33.333 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -158.973 %
Earnings Growth YoY -383.323 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 300.0 %
mean: 35.229 %
median: 2.639 %
CXW: -33.333 %
low: -78.571 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 22.549 %
Gross Margin QoQ -13.21 %
Gross Margin YoY -8.199 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.533 %
mean: 61.128 %
median: 54.969 %
CXW: 22.549 %
low: 11.881 %
 EBIT Margin 9.163 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -23.902 %
EBIT Margin YoY -2.459 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 86.291 %
mean: 33.503 %
median: 22.755 %
CXW: 9.163 %
low: 6.407 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 8.994 %
Return On Sales QoQ -25.342 %
Return On Sales YoY -4.258 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 84.797 %
mean: 32.581 %
median: 20.941 %
CXW: 8.994 %
low: 3.96 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 15.6 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.755 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -72.91 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -84.787 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.049 %
median: 1.082 %
CXW: 0.755 %
mean: 0.594 %
low: -4.057 %
 Free Cash Growth -74.881 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -131.529 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -252.417 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 171.111 %
mean: 21.532 %
median: 1.802 %
CXW: -74.881 %
low: -700.297 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.591
 Cash Flow Margin 1.506 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.332
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.851 %
Return On Assets QoQ -32.939 %
Return On Assets YoY 17.379 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.657 %
mean: 0.995 %
median: 0.973 %
CXW: 0.851 %
low: 0.064 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.916 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.018
Return On Equity QoQ -31.43 %
Return On Equity YoY 25.192 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.216
mean: 0.06
median: 0.026
CXW: 0.018
low: -0.096
 DuPont ROE 1.785 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.523 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -20.387 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -104.525 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 6.565 %
mean: 2.025 %
median: 1.757 %
CXW: 1.523 %
low: -0.509 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias trends modestly bullish. Short-term technical momentum via the MACD crossover, rising RSI, MRO moving toward zero, and price trading above the 20- and 50-day averages favor further consolidation or moderate appreciation. The DI+ peak-and-reverse injects caution; ADX at an emerging level suggests the directional move lacks robust strength.

Fundamentals provide event-based support: recently awarded contracts, increased repurchase authorization, and expanded revolver capacity reduce financing risk and support revenue visibility as activations progress. Countervailing risk centers on high debt-to-EBITDA and quarter-to-quarter revenue swings, which elevate sensitivity to execution and timing.

Expect elevated short-term volatility given the 42-day beta and active corporate developments. The path over the next six weeks should remain catalyst-driven, biased toward further upside if contract activations and cash deployment continue as communicated; failure to sustain contract cadence or to convert incremental revenues into cash could reintroduce downside pressure.

About CoreCivic, Inc.

CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) delivers diversified government solutions across the United States, with a focus on corrections, detention, and residential reentry management. Founded in 1983 and based in Brentwood, Tennessee, CoreCivic operates through three main segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. CoreCivic Safety manages correctional and detention facilities, providing secure and humane environments. CoreCivic Community runs a network of residential reentry centers, aiming to reduce recidivism through programs centered on education, life skills, and employment training. CoreCivic Properties offers real estate solutions tailored to government needs, leasing properties that support various public sector functions. CoreCivic integrates rehabilitation and educational initiatives within its facilities, including substance abuse treatment and faith-based services. By addressing the complexities of the criminal justice system, CoreCivic plays a significant role in fostering safer communities and aiding individuals in their transition back into society. Through its comprehensive approach, CoreCivic remains a trusted partner in advancing public safety and correctional solutions.



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