Celestica Inc. (NYSE:CLS) Posts Momentum While Valuation Signals Moderation Ahead

Strong operational momentum and widening margins contrast with stretched multiples, creating near-term volatility risk. Recent analyst activity and operational metrics suggest continued demand but elevated valuation pressure.

Recent News

Sep 15, 2025: Celestica announced a Q3 2025 results conference call and a 2025 Investor and Analyst Day to occur on Oct 28. Oct 28–29, 2025: several broker-dealer updates revised one-year price targets for Celestica, reflecting elevated analyst attention and divergent target ranges. Late Oct–Nov 2025: multiple outlets noted expanding analyst coverage and upward target revisions following the company’s investor presentations and guidance updates.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX/DI+/DI-): ADX at 14.72 signals no established trend; directional indicators present conflicting signals: DI+ at 26.8 with a peak & reversal, which reads as bearish, while DI- at 24.68 with a peak & reversal reads as bullish. That combination suggests directional strength lacks conviction and near-term directional flips remain possible.

MACD: MACD sits at 7.13 with a dip & reversal trend, which denotes returning bullish momentum, yet the MACD line remains below the signal line at 7.59 so a confirming bullish cross has not occurred; the current pattern supports upside potential but lacks a technical confirmation.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 27.29 sits positive, indicating price above target and an elevated probability of downward mean reversion; the MRO’s dip & reversal trend suggests recent compression from higher extremes, raising the risk of a pullback toward intrinsic benchmarks used in valuation.

RSI: RSI at 59.1 with a dip & reversal trend reads as bullish momentum without overbought conditions; RSI supports continuation of recent strength while leaving room before extreme readings.

Price vs. moving averages & bands: Last close $340.76 exceeds the 20-day average $315.81, 50-day average $297.60 and 200-day average $181.48, indicating strong price extension versus short- and long-term averages. Price trades slightly above the 1x upper Bollinger band ($337.53), implying near-term over-extension relative to recent volatility.

Volume and volatility: Daily volume at 2.07M sits below the 10-day average of 2.64M and below 50/200-day averages, suggesting recent advances lack conviction from higher average volume. Short-term beta at 3.73 signals elevated sensitivity to market moves and higher swing risk over the next weeks.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT reached $323.7M and EBITDA $364.0M, with an EBIT margin of 10.14%. That margin increased QoQ by 8.29% and expanded YoY by 83.17%. The company’s EBIT margin falls below the industry peer mean of 18.3%, indicating room to catch up to peer operating leverage despite strong sequential improvement.

Revenue and earnings: Total revenue totaled $3.194B with revenue growth at 10.39% and revenue growth year‑over‑year at 130.92%. GAAP EPS registered $2.31 against an estimate of $1.38, a beat of $0.93 representing a 67.39% surprise, supporting the recent upward revisions in near-term guidance.

Cash flow and capital allocation: Operating cash flow reached $126.2M and free cash flow $88.9M, producing a free cash flow yield of 0.34%. Free cash flow declined on reported growth metrics, and free cash flow yield sits well below levels that align with richly priced multiples, signaling limited cash return relative to current market capitalization.

Leverage and coverage: Total debt $784.1M yields a debt-to-EBITDA of 2.15x and debt-to-equity of 0.39. Interest coverage at 25.29x exceeds the industry peer mean of 12.59x, providing ample capacity to service obligations while supporting margin expansion initiatives.

Efficiency and returns: Asset turnover 0.497, above the industry peer mean of 0.183, and return on equity at 13.20% sits well above peer mean of 5.315%, indicating operational efficiency and effective capital deployment despite lower EBIT margin versus peers.

Valuation summary: WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Market multiples present elevated readings: trailing P/E ~99.8x, price-to-book ~13.08x, enterprise multiple ~74.18x and forward P/E ~183.6x, while free cash flow yield remains near 0.34%. Those valuation metrics create a premium that requires sustained margin expansion and cash flow conversion to justify current pricing.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-26
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 313.8 M
 Operating Cash Flow 126.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -37.30 M
 Change In Working Capital -92.40 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -7.90 M
 End Period Cash Flow 305.9 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 3.2 B
 Forward Revenue 381.6 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 2.8 B
 Depreciation 28.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 40.3 M
 Research and Development 36.4 M
 Total Operating Expenses 2.9 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 416.1 M
 EBITDA 364.0 M
 EBIT 323.7 M
 Operating Income 329.9 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 12.8 M
 Net Interest Income -12.80 M
 Income Before Tax 310.9 M
 Tax Provision 43.1 M
 Tax Rate 14.0 %
 Net Income 267.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 267.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.38
 EPS Actual 2.31
 EPS Difference 0.93
 EPS Surprise 67.391 %
 Forward EPS 1.11
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 6.6 B
 Intangible Assets 616.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.4 B
 Total Current Assets 5.1 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 305.9 M
 Cash 305.9 M
 Net Receivables 2.4 B
 Inventory 2.0 B
 Long-Term Investments 71.9 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.7 B
 Short-Term Debt 27.4 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.5 B
 Net Debt 478.2 M
 Total Debt 784.1 M
 Total Liabilities 4.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.0 B
 Retained Earnings 141.2 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.63
 Shares Outstanding 115.033 M
 Revenue Per-Share 27.77
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 26.5 B
 Enterprise Value 27.0 B
 Enterprise Multiple 74.183
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 16.556 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 137.247 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 230.414
median: 74.716
CLS: 74.183
mean: 58.297
low: -236.709
 EV/R 8.454
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.257
 Asset To Liability 1.443
 Debt To Capital 0.279
 Debt To Assets 0.119
Debt To Assets QoQ -15.368 %
Debt To Assets YoY 1118.48 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.788
median: 0.293
mean: 0.238
CLS: 0.119
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 0.387
Debt To Equity QoQ -22.365 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1118.921 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.475
median: 0.63
mean: 0.481
CLS: 0.387
low: -0.674
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 13.075
Price To Book QoQ 17.528 %
Price To Book YoY 286.262 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 14.439
CLS: 13.075
mean: 6.85
median: 5.079
low: -8.049
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 99.818
Price To Earnings QoQ 34.204 %
Price To Earnings YoY 96.169 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 383.521
median: 124.306
mean: 100.52
CLS: 99.818
low: -251.079
 PE/G Ratio 3.708
 Price To Sales (P/S) 8.304
Price To Sales QoQ 22.861 %
Price To Sales YoY 236.973 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 84.038
median: 21.019
mean: 18.433
CLS: 8.304
low: 0.0
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 183.596
Forward PE/G 6.819
Forward P/S 69.512
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.88
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.497
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.758 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 17.458 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.503
CLS: 0.497
median: 0.204
mean: 0.183
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.351
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.304 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 5.527 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 3.347
mean: 1.466
median: 1.405
CLS: 1.351
low: 0.271
 Inventory Turnover 1.401
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.951 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 15.094 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 2.365
CLS: 1.401
median: 1.192
mean: 1.019
low: 0.134
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 67.525
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 80.002
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -4.585 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -12.044 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 384.751
mean: 118.075
median: 85.242
CLS: 80.002
low: -90.357
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.947
 CapEx To Revenue -0.012
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.291
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.8 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.8 B
 Invested Capital 2.8 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.4 B
 Net Working Capital 1.6 B
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.087
 Current Ratio 1.468
Current Ratio QoQ 2.207 %
Current Ratio YoY -0.211 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 11.805
mean: 2.73
median: 2.07
CLS: 1.468
low: 0.373
 Quick Ratio 0.884
Quick Ratio QoQ 2.901 %
Quick Ratio YoY 1.64 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 9.468
mean: 2.204
median: 1.518
CLS: 0.884
low: 0.295
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 2.154
 Cost Of Debt 1.327 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 25.289
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 26.072 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 135.885 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 88.732
CLS: 25.289
median: 14.249
mean: 12.59
low: -113.26
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.032
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 59.238
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 5.858 %
 Revenue Growth 10.389 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 12.399 %
Revenue Growth YoY 130.918 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 79.411 %
CLS: 10.389 %
median: 6.793 %
mean: 6.072 %
low: -44.732 %
 Earnings Growth 26.923 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -47.891 %
Earnings Growth YoY 88.457 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 164.706 %
CLS: 26.923 %
median: 14.815 %
mean: 7.421 %
low: -200.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 13.028 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.607 %
Gross Margin YoY 25.68 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 97.907 %
mean: 42.957 %
median: 38.088 %
CLS: 13.028 %
low: -43.101 %
 EBIT Margin 10.135 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 8.291 %
EBIT Margin YoY 83.174 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 44.499 %
median: 19.896 %
mean: 18.3 %
CLS: 10.135 %
low: -228.471 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 10.329 %
Return On Sales QoQ 4.133 %
Return On Sales YoY 86.68 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 44.617 %
median: 18.276 %
mean: 17.814 %
CLS: 10.329 %
low: -228.471 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 88.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.335 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -45.351 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -79.115 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.804 %
median: 0.858 %
mean: 0.445 %
CLS: 0.335 %
low: -13.716 %
 Free Cash Growth -25.855 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -192.017 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -276.883 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 288.449 %
median: 8.386 %
mean: -18.854 %
CLS: -25.855 %
low: -351.784 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 0.332
 Cash Flow Margin 3.525 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.42
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 4.169 %
Return On Assets QoQ 19.285 %
Return On Assets YoY 168.448 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.668 %
CLS: 4.169 %
mean: 2.468 %
median: 1.803 %
low: -24.617 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 10.427 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.132
Return On Equity QoQ 9.981 %
Return On Equity YoY 161.977 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.282
CLS: 0.132
mean: 0.053
median: 0.047
low: -0.264
 DuPont ROE 14.144 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 9.897 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 17.346 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -133.409 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA CLS: 9.897 %
high: 6.396 %
mean: 3.095 %
median: 2.823 %
low: -14.977 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical readings suggest continued short-term strength but elevated reversion risk. MACD’s dip & reversal and RSI momentum permit upside continuation, yet the MRO positive reading and price trading above the upper Bollinger band point to potential mean reversion. Low ADX implies range-bound behavior until directional conviction returns. High short-term beta and volume below recent averages increase swing amplitude and favor active risk management for position holders. Expect heightened volatility and episodic pullbacks while fundamental beats and analyst attention maintain directional catalysts.

About Celestica Inc.

Celestica Inc. (NYSE:CLS) delivers innovative supply chain solutions from its headquarters in Toronto, Canada. Since its inception in 1994, Celestica has expanded its reach across North America, Europe, and Asia, catering to industries such as aerospace and defense, industrial, HealthTech, capital equipment, and communication and enterprise markets. The company organizes its operations into two primary segments: Advanced Technology Solutions and Connectivity & Cloud Solutions. Celestica provides a comprehensive suite of product manufacturing and supply chain services, including design and development, new product introductions, engineering services, and component sourcing. The company’s expertise in electronics manufacturing and assembly, complex mechanical assembly, systems integration, and precision machining sets it apart in the industry. Additionally, Celestica offers logistics, asset management, and after-market repair services. In the realm of hardware platform solutions, Celestica delivers both off-the-shelf and customizable hardware and software design solutions. The company manages entire programs, encompassing design, supply chain, manufacturing, and after-market support, including IT asset disposition and asset management services. Serving original equipment manufacturers, cloud-based entities, hyperscalers, and various service providers, Celestica remains a reliable partner in the dynamic global market.



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