Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA) Builds Cash Strength and Poised For Near-Term Momentum

Afya shows profitable margins and exceptional free-cash generation while technicals signal short-term momentum that may meet medium-term resistance. Fundamentals and cash flow paint a valuation case below intrinsic peers.

Recent News

On November 12, 2025 Afya released third-quarter and nine-month results reporting 3Q25 revenue of R$928.5 million (up 10.4% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of R$398.9 million with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 43.0%. On November 12, 2025 Zacks and Nasdaq coverage noted an EPS beat for the quarter. On November 4, 2025 multiple brokerages published an average analyst recommendation of “Hold” with a one‑year consensus target near $18.20. In early September 2025 several broker reports reported rating changes and target revisions, including upgrades by UBS and coverage updates by major houses.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show no established trend: ADX at 18.8 indicates trend weakness. DI+ registered a peak-and-reversal, which signals a bearish shift in directional strength; DI- is decreasing, a bullish sign, leaving directional forces mixed and favoring range-bound behavior until ADX confirms a stronger trend.

MACD reads 0.10 with the MACD line above the signal (0.02) and an increasing MACD_trend; the MACD crossing above the signal line represents bullish momentum and supports near-term upside pressure on price.

MRO at 15.84 (positive and increasing) implies the price currently sits above the model target and therefore carries potential to correct downward; the magnitude suggests moderate mean-reversion pressure that could cap rallies unless other momentum indicators accelerate.

RSI at 49.43 and rising sits near neutral, indicating developing buying interest without overbought conditions; this aligns with short-term momentum building but not yet stretched.

Price sits at $15.20 above short-term averages (20-day $14.91, 50-day $14.82, 12-day EMA $14.97) and below the 200-day average ($16.36). That placement supports near-term strength while the 200-day average presents a medium-term resistance zone. Ichimoku components place price between Senkou A ($15.08) and Senkou B ($15.35), reflecting a neutral cloud environment; the span constrains directional conviction.

Bollinger bands place the security comfortably inside the 1x standard deviation range (lower $14.65, upper $15.16), consistent with contained volatility. SuperTrend lower support sits at $14.47, and 10/50/200-day volume averages show recent volumes slightly below longer-term norms, reducing impulse risk for breakouts.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue reached $928,505,000 with operating income $277,360,000 and EBIT $302,005,000. EBIT margin stands at 32.53%, which sits above the industry peer mean and above the industry peer high of 28.543%. Operating margin registers 29.87%, also above the industry peer mean. Margin strength supports the valuation gap highlighted below.

Net income totaled $155,167,000 and EPS came in at $2.08 versus an estimate of $1.77, yielding an EPS surprise of +17.51%. Forward EPS equals $0.4225, producing a forward P/E of 37.24 versus a trailing P/E of 7.23; the divergence reflects lower near-term consensus earnings expectations relative to trailing results.

Free cash flow reached $428,085,000 with a free-cash-flow yield of 31.39%, a level above the industry peer mean and above the industry peer high of 14.006%. Cash on hand totaled $996,826,000 while net debt measured $916,841,000. Interest coverage stood at 2.49x, enabling interest obligations but at a modest cushion.

Balance-sheet and liquidity metrics show a current ratio of 0.98 (below the industry peer mean of 1.254) and a cash ratio of 0.55. Debt-to-equity at 0.63 falls below the industry peer mean; debt-to-EBITDA at 7.50 indicates material leverage against earnings. Asset turnover sits at 0.10, below the industry peer mean, which constrains top-line efficiency.

Growth reads mixed: revenue growth measures 0.99% over the reported period while year-over-year revenue growth shows -74.38% on the YoY field; earnings growth YoY registers +0.88%. Gross margin at 63.39% and adjusted EBITDA margin (per filings) expanded materially, underlining strong operating profitability despite growth inconsistencies.

Valuation context: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Trailing P/E of 7.23 and a P/B of 0.29 indicate market pricing below book and relative to earnings, while the unusually high free-cash-flow yield supports a value case. Leverage and mixed top-line growth temper the valuation argument and merit continued monitoring.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-12
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-11
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.1 B
 Operating Cash Flow 506.2 M
 Capital Expenditures -78.08 M
 Change In Working Capital 73.1 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -102.28 M
 End Period Cash Flow 996.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 928.5 M
 Forward Revenue 57.3 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 339.9 M
 Depreciation 49.3 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 94.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 651.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 588.6 M
 EBITDA 396.7 M
 EBIT 302.0 M
 Operating Income 277.4 M
 Interest Income 57.0 M
 Interest Expense 121.4 M
 Net Interest Income -98.82 M
 Income Before Tax 180.6 M
 Tax Provision 21.2 M
 Tax Rate 11.748 %
 Net Income 155.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 180.6 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 1.77
 EPS Actual 2.08
 EPS Difference 0.31
 EPS Surprise 17.514 %
 Forward EPS 0.42
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 9.2 B
 Intangible Assets 5.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets -828.65 M
 Total Current Assets 1.8 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 996.8 M
 Cash 996.8 M
 Net Receivables 671.2 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 123.9 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 249.1 M
 Short-Term Debt 916.8 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.8 B
 Net Debt 916.8 M
 Total Debt 3.0 B
 Total Liabilities 4.4 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 4.7 B
 Retained Earnings 2.5 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 52.33
 Shares Outstanding 90.698 M
 Revenue Per-Share 10.24
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 1.4 B
 Enterprise Value 3.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 8.424
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 0.727 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 288.879 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 190.244
median: 48.181
AFYA: 8.424
mean: -0.158
low: -219.035
 EV/R 3.599
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.936
 Asset To Liability 2.088
 Debt To Capital 0.385
 Debt To Assets 0.324
Debt To Assets QoQ -7.256 %
Debt To Assets YoY 9284.638 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.956
mean: 0.325
AFYA: 0.324
median: 0.32
low: 0.004
 Debt To Equity 0.627
Debt To Equity QoQ -10.676 %
Debt To Equity YoY 8473.735 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.466
mean: 1.056
median: 0.939
AFYA: 0.627
low: -1.645
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.287
Price To Book QoQ -7.274 %
Price To Book YoY -20.753 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 27.592
mean: 3.578
median: 1.785
AFYA: 0.287
low: -9.335
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 7.228
Price To Earnings QoQ 1.538 %
Price To Earnings YoY -8.095 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 517.132
mean: 79.329
median: 64.535
AFYA: 7.228
low: -80.57
 PE/G Ratio -0.864
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.469
Price To Sales QoQ -5.194 %
Price To Sales YoY -17.103 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 28.774
mean: 6.125
median: 4.136
AFYA: 1.469
low: 0.079
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 37.237
Forward PE/G -4.449
Forward P/S 23.787
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -1.269
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.101
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.579 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -0.758 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.945
median: 0.397
mean: 0.335
AFYA: 0.101
low: 0.001
 Receivables Turnover 1.375
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -1.574 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.184 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.084
mean: 4.358
median: 2.872
AFYA: 1.375
low: 0.147
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 66.343
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -11.195
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -75.518 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 132.972
median: 15.133
mean: 11.594
AFYA: -11.195
low: -85.326
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -24.436
 CapEx To Revenue -0.084
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.582
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 5.7 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.7 B
 Invested Capital 6.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets -828.65 M
 Net Working Capital -38.00 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.554
 Current Ratio 0.979
Current Ratio QoQ 4.554 %
Current Ratio YoY -38.65 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 6.656
mean: 1.254
AFYA: 0.979
median: 0.832
low: 0.014
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 7.499
 Cost Of Debt 3.455 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 2.488
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 2.464 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 0.869 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 30.491
AFYA: 2.488
mean: 1.983
median: 1.798
low: -59.14
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.096
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 77.538
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -0.552 %
 Revenue Growth 0.99 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -154.666 %
Revenue Growth YoY -74.379 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 14.194 %
mean: 2.891 %
median: 2.066 %
AFYA: 0.99 %
low: -22.095 %
 Earnings Growth -8.37 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -71.2 %
Earnings Growth YoY 0.88 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 131.373 %
mean: -6.621 %
AFYA: -8.37 %
median: -11.602 %
low: -234.091 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 63.391 %
Gross Margin QoQ 1.062 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.12 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 87.689 %
AFYA: 63.391 %
mean: 27.876 %
median: 27.141 %
low: -9.25 %
 EBIT Margin 32.526 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -9.33 %
EBIT Margin YoY 19.13 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA AFYA: 32.526 %
high: 28.543 %
mean: 5.392 %
median: 1.971 %
low: -105.324 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 29.872 %
Return On Sales QoQ -3.71 %
Return On Sales YoY 9.409 %
Return On Sales IPRWA AFYA: 29.872 %
high: 27.891 %
mean: 7.937 %
median: 6.252 %
low: -43.781 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 428.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 31.394 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 149.932 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 55.254 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA AFYA: 31.394 %
high: 14.006 %
mean: 1.536 %
median: 1.231 %
low: -18.788 %
 Free Cash Growth 139.306 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -348.246 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 196.863 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 558.205 %
AFYA: 139.306 %
mean: -7.215 %
median: -48.314 %
low: -423.827 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.759
 Cash Flow Margin 18.679 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.118
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.684 %
Return On Assets QoQ -10.33 %
Return On Assets YoY 16.218 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.577 %
AFYA: 1.684 %
median: 0.39 %
mean: 0.32 %
low: -22.496 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 4.088 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.033
Return On Equity QoQ -12.803 %
Return On Equity YoY 11.99 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.378
AFYA: 0.033
mean: 0.015
median: 0.011
low: -0.391
 DuPont ROE 3.322 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 4.002 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -9.19 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -115.467 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.725 %
AFYA: 4.002 %
median: 0.766 %
mean: 0.597 %
low: -22.633 %

Six-Week Outlook

Expect a near-term bias toward consolidation with mild upward pressure while momentum indicators build: MACD above its signal and rising plus short-term averages beneath price support modest rallies. The MRO’s positive reading signals risk of mean reversion that could trim upside, while ADX below 20 keeps moves range-bound until trend strength increases. Key technical resistance aligns near the 200-day average at $16.36 and the upper Ichimoku cloud boundary; support clusters sit near the SuperTrend lower at $14.47 and short-term moving averages. Given strong free-cash-flow generation and solid margins, any sustained move above medium-term resistance would likely require renewed volume and a rise in ADX; absent that, expect choppy, range-limited action over the coming six weeks.

About Afya Limited

Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA) is a pioneering force in medical education and digital health services, primarily operating in Brazil. The company is committed to transforming healthcare education through its diverse offerings across three main segments: Undergrad, Continuing Education, and Digital Services. Afya’s educational portfolio includes medical schools, residency preparation courses, and postgraduate programs, designed to nurture the next generation of healthcare professionals. Beyond traditional education, Afya excels in digital innovation, providing subscription-based platforms that empower healthcare professionals and students with essential tools for clinical decision-making. These digital solutions encompass medical calculators, up-to-date medical content, and clinical scoring systems, ensuring that users have the latest resources at their fingertips. Afya’s influence extends across various disciplines, offering courses in medicine, dentistry, nursing, and biomedicine, as well as business, engineering, and law. The company’s digital arm includes cutting-edge solutions like iClinic, a practice management tool; Cliquefarma, a pharmaceutical price comparison platform; Shosp, a clinical management system; RX PRO, a bridge between physicians and the pharmaceutical industry; and Glic, an app for diabetes management. Since its inception in 1999, Afya, headquartered in Nova Lima, Brazil, has been at the forefront of revolutionizing healthcare education and digital services, continually adapting to meet the evolving needs of the medical community.



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