Ellomay Capital Ltd. (NYSE:ELLO) Builds On Momentum But Faces Valuation Pressure

Ellomay Capital shows operational momentum from recent project connections and improving cash flow, while elevated leverage and valuation metrics create near-term risk for price action.

Recent News

On September 30, 2025 Ellomay published interim results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, reporting €20.1M revenue for the six months and a €1.6M loss for the period, and disclosing completion of a Clal transaction on its 198 MW Italian portfolio and a July private placement. On October 23, 2025 the company held its 2025 Annual General Meeting where directors were re-elected and shareholders approved increases to authorized share capital and other governance items. On November 30, 2025 Ellomay reported publication of Dorad Energy Ltd.’s financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, noting its indirect interest in Dorad.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 17.68 indicates no trend, reducing confidence in directional breakout scenarios and elevating the importance of confirmation from momentum oscillators.

Directional indicators show bullish signals: DI+ registered a dip-and-reversal while DI- registered a peak-and-reversal, both implying directional strength toward the upside despite the low ADX.

MACD exhibits a dip-and-reversal, signaling bullish momentum, although the MACD (0.18) remains below the signal line (0.22), so momentum requires confirmation before validating a sustained advance.

MRO sits at 24.77 with a dip-and-reversal trend; the positive MRO indicates price currently sits above the model target and may invite corrective pressure even as the oscillator recently reversed higher.

RSI at 55.76 with a dip-and-reversal signals mild bullish bias without overbought conditions, supporting the view that short-term strength could continue if momentum confirms.

Price relationships reinforce the mixed picture: the close at $20.75 trades above the 200-day average ($17.04) and slightly above the 20-day average ($20.25), which supports near-term upside versus longer-term support levels. The price occupies the upper Bollinger band area (upper 1x SD $20.83), showing proximity to near-term upper-range resistance. The Ichimoku Tenkan at $19.85 and Kijun at $20.50 place price between short-term and baseline thresholds. The super trend upper level at $21.49 offers a defined near-term resistance.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and cash-flow dynamics present mixed signals. Total revenue reached $11,276,000 for the most recent quarter with revenue growth year-over-year at -24.318% while quarter-over-quarter revenue growth shows a large positive swing (reported as 1200.381% QoQ). Operating cash flow improved to $4,791,000 and operating margin stands at 1.179%.

Profitability metrics remain under pressure. EBIT registered -$497,000 and EBIT margin equals -4.408%, versus an industry peer mean EBIT margin of 16.464% and industry peer median of 15.318%, indicating substantially lower operating profit relative to peers. Gross margin at 21.701% sits below the industry peer mean of 34.777% and median of 36.306%.

Cash and liquidity show relative strength: cash and short-term investments total $46,500,000, current ratio measures 1.238 and quick ratio 1.231, both above the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.01178 and quick ratio mean of 0.82254, indicating a stronger short-term liquidity position versus peers.

Leverage and coverage ratios present material risks. Total debt stands at $557,000,000 with net debt approximately $476,756,000. Debt-to-assets equals 76.373%, above the industry peer high of 72.951%. Debt-to-EBITDA sits at 148.41x and interest coverage registers negative at -5.683%, reflecting heavy leverage and limited earnings cushion for interest obligations. Free cash flow totaled -$14,540,000 and free cash flow yield equals -6.485% versus an industry peer mean free cash flow yield of -1.166%.

Valuation metrics look elevated. Price-to-book equals 1.88179 while price-to-sales equals 19.8828; enterprise multiple measures 195.76 compared with an industry peer mean enterprise multiple near 42.32. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of stretched valuation multiples and negative free cash flow against significant net debt.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-09-29
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 35.1 M
 Operating Cash Flow 4.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -19.33 M
 Change In Working Capital 2.7 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 11.4 M
 End Period Cash Flow 46.5 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 11.3 M
 Forward Revenue
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 8.8 M
 Depreciation 4.2 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 4.2 M
 Research and Development 1.8 M
 Total Operating Expenses 11.1 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 2.4 M
 EBITDA 3.8 M
 EBIT -497.00 K
 Operating Income 133.0 K
 Interest Income -268.00 K
 Interest Expense 8.7 M
 Net Interest Income -9.01 M
 Income Before Tax -9.24 M
 Tax Provision -849.00 K
 Tax Rate 9.185 %
 Net Income -7.68 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -8.39 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate
 EPS Actual
 EPS Difference
 EPS Surprise
 Forward EPS
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 729.3 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 119.1 M
 Total Current Assets 94.7 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 46.5 M
 Cash 46.5 M
 Net Receivables 1.3 M
 Inventory 507.0 K
 Long-Term Investments 13.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 8.4 M
 Short-Term Debt 53.4 M
 Total Current Liabilities 76.5 M
 Net Debt 476.8 M
 Total Debt 557.0 M
 Total Liabilities 583.1 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 119.1 M
 Retained Earnings -11.25 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 9.27
 Shares Outstanding 12.853 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.88
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 224.2 M
 Enterprise Value 734.7 M
 Enterprise Multiple 195.763
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 276.74 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 1052.25 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA ELLO: 195.763
high: 67.027
median: 57.336
mean: 42.316
low: -43.046
 EV/R 65.156
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 6.121
 Asset To Liability 1.251
 Debt To Capital 0.824
 Debt To Assets 0.764
Debt To Assets QoQ -2.63 %
Debt To Assets YoY 884.442 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA ELLO: 0.764
high: 0.73
median: 0.473
mean: 0.419
low: 0.137
 Debt To Equity 4.675
Debt To Equity QoQ -1.109 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1004.344 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 8.985
median: 7.689
mean: 5.795
ELLO: 4.675
low: -4.218
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.882
Price To Book QoQ 2.835 %
Price To Book YoY 34.207 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 50.808
median: 27.025
mean: 19.205
ELLO: 1.882
low: -8.667
 Price To Earnings (P/E)
Price To Earnings QoQ
Price To Earnings YoY
Price To Earnings IPRWA
 PE/G Ratio
 Price To Sales (P/S) 19.883
Price To Sales QoQ -19.551 %
Price To Sales YoY 36.685 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 24.925
ELLO: 19.883
median: 14.924
mean: 11.535
low: 0.082
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E
Forward PE/G
Forward P/S
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -3.859
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.016
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 22.731 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -9.75 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.111
median: 0.111
mean: 0.087
low: 0.018
ELLO: 0.016
 Receivables Turnover 3.117
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 21.217 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 258.173 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA ELLO: 3.117
high: 2.217
median: 2.047
mean: 1.747
low: 0.691
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 29.274
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -64.971
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -168.532 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 34.718
median: 34.718
mean: 29.741
low: -2.818
ELLO: -64.971
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.619
 CapEx To Revenue -1.714
 CapEx To Depreciation -4.548
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 589.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 642.4 M
 Invested Capital 642.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 119.1 M
 Net Working Capital 18.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.608
 Current Ratio 1.238
Current Ratio QoQ 24.896 %
Current Ratio YoY 42.027 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.326
ELLO: 1.238
mean: 1.012
median: 0.899
low: 0.27
 Quick Ratio 1.231
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY 42.861 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA ELLO: 1.231
high: 1.199
mean: 0.823
median: 0.797
low: 0.266
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 148.415
 Cost Of Debt 1.415 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -0.057
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -102.151 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -104.488 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 2.625
median: 2.625
mean: 2.051
ELLO: -0.057
low: -4.291
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.005
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 94.245
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.119 %
 Revenue Growth 27.269 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 1200.381 %
Revenue Growth YoY -24.318 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA ELLO: 27.269 %
high: 8.06 %
median: 8.06 %
mean: 5.231 %
low: -2.427 %
 Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth QoQ
Earnings Growth YoY
Earnings Growth IPRWA
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 21.701 %
Gross Margin QoQ -38851.786 %
Gross Margin YoY 17.157 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 74.297 %
median: 36.306 %
mean: 34.777 %
ELLO: 21.701 %
low: 11.097 %
 EBIT Margin -4.408 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -104.116 %
EBIT Margin YoY -110.172 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 67.076 %
mean: 16.464 %
median: 15.318 %
ELLO: -4.408 %
low: -193.906 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 1.179 %
Return On Sales QoQ -104.155 %
Return On Sales YoY -97.279 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 46.082 %
mean: 17.727 %
median: 13.718 %
ELLO: 1.179 %
low: -50.384 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -14.54 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -6.485 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -25.903 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -14.536 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 0.015 %
median: -0.186 %
mean: -1.166 %
ELLO: -6.485 %
low: -12.253 %
 Free Cash Growth -24.129 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 136.628 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -142.119 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 18.116 %
ELLO: -24.129 %
median: -30.178 %
mean: -34.06 %
low: -165.602 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.892
 Cash Flow Margin -3.468 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 0.051
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -1.059 %
Return On Assets QoQ -192.651 %
Return On Assets YoY -416.119 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.778 %
median: 0.856 %
mean: 0.805 %
ELLO: -1.059 %
low: -3.099 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -0.076 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.065
Return On Equity QoQ -196.557 %
Return On Equity YoY -444.367 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.139
median: 0.139
mean: 0.092
low: -0.028
ELLO: -0.065
 DuPont ROE -6.437 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -0.07 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -106.244 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -99.822 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 3.499 %
median: 2.628 %
mean: 1.839 %
ELLO: -0.07 %
low: -12.057 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price bias appears mildly constructive but fragile. Multiple directional indicators and recent MACD/MRO reversals suggest potential for further upside, yet ADX under 20 and MACD still below its signal line imply momentum lacks decisive confirmation. Elevated leverage, negative free cash flow, and WMDST’s over-valued assessment increase downside vulnerability if macro or sector flows reverse. Swing traders should watch for a sustained MACD cross above the signal line or a move above the super trend upper level to validate upside continuation, while a breach back below the 20-day average would shift the bias toward corrective price action.

About Ellomay Capital Ltd.

Ellomay Capital Ltd. (NYSE:ELLO) advances the renewable energy sector with a focus on sustainable power solutions globally. Headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel, the company diversifies its portfolio across solar, hydroelectric, and biogas projects. In Spain, Ellomay Capital manages photovoltaic (PV) plants, including a notable 300 MW facility in Talaván, enhancing the country’s renewable energy contributions. In Israel, the company operates a dual-fuel power plant near Ashkelon and develops a 156 MW pumped storage hydro power plant at Manara Cliff. In the Netherlands, Ellomay Capital bolsters green energy production through anaerobic digestion plants, generating significant volumes of green gas. The company’s expansion into Italy and the United States includes numerous PV projects in Lazio and the Dallas metropolitan area, reflecting its dedication to global clean energy development. Established in 1987, Ellomay Capital has transitioned from its origins as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. into a key player in the renewable energy sector, supporting the shift towards a sustainable future.



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