Recent News
Oct 2, 2025 — CF Industries, Trafigura and Envalior announced a shipment of certified low‑carbon ammonia from the Donaldsonville, Louisiana facility. Nov 5, 2025 — CF Industries issued a press release reporting third‑quarter and nine‑month 2025 results and furnished an SEC Form 8‑K for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Nov 10–19, 2025 — several broker reports adjusted price targets and coverage after the company’s quarterly release; analysts published revised guidance and target updates during that period.
Technical Analysis
ADX / DI+ / DI‑: ADX at 27.55 signals a strong trend strength that can amplify directional moves. DI+ shows a dip & reversal, which indicates a bullish shift in directional momentum. DI‑ displays a peak & reversal, which likewise indicates falling negative-direction pressure and contributes to a bullish directional setup.
MACD: MACD stands at -1.74 with a dip & reversal trend, signaling a move from deeper negative momentum toward recovery; MACD remains below the signal line (-1.56), so bullish momentum has started but lacks a confirming crossover.
MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at -31.57 indicates the market price sits below the WMDST target, implying potential upward pressure; the oscillator’s dip & reversal trend supports a move toward that target in the near term.
RSI: RSI reads 43.67 with a dip & reversal, signaling a recovery from lower momentum while remaining below neutral; that pattern favors tactical upside if momentum continues to firm.
Price vs Moving Averages and Bands: Closing price $79.80 sits below the 50‑day ($84.94) and 200‑day ($84.68) averages, indicating the stock trades beneath medium‑ and long‑term averages; the 12‑day EMA shows a dip & reversal and the 20‑day average ($80.49) sits slightly above the close, creating a short‑term hurdle. Bollinger bands (1x: $77.35–$83.64) place the current price inside the upper half of the 20‑day volatility band, leaving room to test the $82.60 super trend upper resistance.
Volume & Volatility: Today’s volume (3.55M) runs above the 10‑day average (2.69M) and the 50/200‑day averages, suggesting active participation behind recent moves. Short‑term volatility metrics remain low (42‑day and 52‑week volatility ~2%), which could allow smaller momentum shifts to produce outsized price reactions.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Margins: EBIT reached $602.0M and EBITDA $819.0M for the period, producing an EBIT margin of 36.29%, up 2.51 percentage points QoQ and up 14.55% YoY. That EBIT margin sits above the industry peer mean (21.05%) and above the industry peer median (28.14%), indicating the company operates with stronger margin conversion than typical peers within the fertilizers and agricultural chemicals group.
Revenue and Earnings: Total revenue recorded $1,659,000,000 with YoY revenue change of -4.89% and sequential revenue movement of -189.54% QoQ. Reported EPS $2.19 exceeded the $2.07 estimate by $0.12, a +5.80% EPS surprise, reflecting better‑than‑expected bottom‑line delivery for the quarter.
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation: Operating cash flow totaled $1,064,000,000 and free cash flow reached $717,000,000, delivering a free cash flow yield of 5.24%. Cash and short‑term investments totaled $1,838,000,000 and the cash conversion ratio sits at 0.9946, indicating near‑complete conversion of earnings into cash.
Leverage & Coverage: Total debt $3,396,000,000 yields debt to assets of 23.91% and debt to equity of 70.04%; debt to EBITDA reads 4.15x while interest coverage stands at 16.27x, providing a sizeable margin for interest expense service given current earnings.
Returns & Efficiency: Return on equity measures 7.28% and return on assets 2.53%, with return on invested capital at 6.26%. Asset turnover registers 11.87%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 11.26%, indicating a marginally better conversion of asset base into revenue relative to peers.
Other Operational Metrics: Gross margin sits at 38.10%, up 17.55% YoY; operating margin at 34.60%, up 9.22% YoY. Working capital and liquidity remain ample: current ratio 2.27 and quick ratio 1.99. Cash conversion cycle at 4.37 days reflects efficient working capital management.
Valuation Note: WMDST values the stock as under‑valued. Market multiples show a PE ratio of 39.63 and a price‑to‑book ratio of 2.82; forward PE around 56.71 reflects analyst forward earnings expectations. Enterprise value stands near $15.24B with an enterprise multiple at 18.61.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-05 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-04 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 1.7 B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 1.1 B | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -347.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 339.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | $ -81.00 M | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 152.0 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 1.8 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 1.7 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 286.2 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.0 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 217.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 217.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.1 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 632.0 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 819.0 M | |
| EBIT | $ 602.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 574.0 M | |
| Interest Income | $ 23.0 M | |
| Interest Expense | $ 37.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -18.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 565.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 105.0 M | |
| Tax Rate | 18.6 % | |
| Net Income | $ 353.0 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 460.0 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 2.07 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 2.19 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.12 | |
| EPS Surprise | 5.797 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 1.54 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 14.2 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 3.0 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 3.0 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 1.8 B | |
| Cash | $ 1.8 B | |
| Net Receivables | $ 602.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 367.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 973.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 716.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 1.3 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 1.1 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 3.4 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 6.5 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 4.8 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ 4.2 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 30.75 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 157.687 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 10.52 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 13.7 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 15.2 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 18.612 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 5.155 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -0.826 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 126.294 median: 70.025 mean: 69.781 CF: 18.612 low: -69.897 |
|
| EV/R | 9.188 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 2.929 | |
| Asset To Liability | 2.182 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.412 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.239 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -1.153 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 1823.572 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.68 mean: 0.334 median: 0.301 CF: 0.239 low: 0.006 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 0.7 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 4.505 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 2014.583 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 2.514 mean: 0.806 CF: 0.7 median: 0.671 low: -0.572 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 2.822 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | -2.099 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 3.614 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 5.584 median: 5.584 mean: 4.482 CF: 2.822 low: -2.704 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 39.629 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 2.961 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -34.567 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 265.147 median: 109.682 mean: 89.802 CF: 39.629 low: -41.91 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -5.218 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 8.249 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 8.971 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | -20.119 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 25.028 median: 25.028 mean: 18.91 CF: 8.249 low: 0.974 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 56.71 | |
| Forward PE/G | -7.467 | |
| Forward P/S | 47.81 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 0.819 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.119 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | -15.032 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 19.645 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.52 CF: 0.119 mean: 0.113 median: 0.1 low: 0.002 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.793 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -13.7 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 3.257 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.423 CF: 2.793 median: 1.631 mean: 1.564 low: 0.762 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 3.007 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | -11.635 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | -2.083 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | CF: 3.007 high: 2.753 median: 2.061 mean: 1.91 low: 0.404 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 32.672 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 4.372 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | 42.776 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -57.276 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 194.054 mean: 58.929 median: 45.452 CF: 4.372 low: -43.247 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.995 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.209 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -1.599 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 7.8 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 7.8 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 7.8 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 1.9 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 1.7 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 1.403 | |
| Current Ratio | 2.273 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -29.491 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -19.199 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.628 CF: 2.273 mean: 1.138 low: 0.823 median: 0.823 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 1.993 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | -29.903 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -20.791 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.62 CF: 1.993 mean: 0.89 median: 0.692 low: 0.404 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 4.147 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 0.896 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 16.27 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -17.311 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 27.463 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | CF: 16.27 high: 12.879 mean: 5.391 median: 4.444 low: -6.647 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.418 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 55.755 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | 4.358 | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.229 | |
| Dividend Rate | $ 0.51 | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.006 | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 3.295 % | |
| Revenue Growth | -12.222 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -189.538 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -4.887 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 47.273 % median: 1.413 % mean: -0.442 % CF: -12.222 % low: -42.451 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -7.595 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -127.021 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -81.804 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 103.922 % median: 2.934 % mean: 0.212 % CF: -7.595 % low: -93.814 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 38.095 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -4.636 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 17.545 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 49.17 % median: 49.17 % mean: 42.527 % CF: 38.095 % low: 6.779 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 36.287 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 2.514 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 14.546 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | CF: 36.287 % high: 28.137 % median: 28.137 % mean: 21.054 % low: -11.91 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 34.599 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | 1.226 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | 9.217 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | CF: 34.599 % high: 27.185 % median: 27.185 % mean: 23.468 % low: -0.545 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 717.0 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 5.239 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 136.417 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -6.413 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 6.703 % CF: 5.239 % median: 0.775 % mean: 0.372 % low: -3.436 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 126.183 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -518.157 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 23.036 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 142.609 % CF: 126.183 % median: 75.262 % mean: 29.431 % low: -183.209 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 2.031 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 33.032 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 1.552 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 2.526 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -11.462 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | 26.363 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 2.896 % CF: 2.526 % median: 2.242 % mean: 1.646 % low: -3.364 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 4.669 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.073 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | -6.403 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | 36.997 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.074 CF: 0.073 median: 0.05 mean: 0.04 low: -0.005 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 7.195 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 6.264 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -4.103 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -128.884 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | CF: 6.264 % high: 4.369 % median: 3.08 % mean: 2.545 % low: -0.085 % |
|