Recent News
On November 3, 2025, the company expanded capital capacity by deepening a partnership with New York Life, which agreed to buy up to $750 million in installment loans through 2026. On October 6, 2025, Rothschild & Co upgraded Affirm’s rating. On November 24, 2025, brokerage coverage aggregated to a consensus “moderate buy” with an average one-year target that exceeded the current market price.
Technical Analysis
The ADX sits at 17.68, indicating no established trend in price strength; that weakness in directional conviction magnifies sensitivity to near-term catalysts and earnings-season flows. Both directional indicators show constructive shifts: DI+ has completed a dip & reversal while DI- has completed a peak & reversal, implying recent buying pressure has regained the edge even as absolute DI- remains higher than DI+. That mixed polarity supports short-run mean reversion rather than runaway trend extension.
MACD registers -1.55 with a dip & reversal and the MACD sits above its signal line (-1.72), which constitutes a bullish momentum crossover. That momentum signal ties directly to the near-term upside bias, but the low absolute MACD level tempers expectations for rapid expansion in trend strength.
The MRO reads 13.55 and remains increasing; as a positive MRO, price sits above the model target and therefore carries a greater probability of downward mean reversion. This juxtaposition—momentum crossover with an over-target MRO—suggests any rally may encounter profit-taking pressure or consolidation before extending higher.
RSI at 47.28 turned from a recent dip & reversal and now sits near neutral, indicating room for both further upside and a pullback; RSI behavior supports a range-bound move unless accompanied by volume pickup. Price trades at $69.06, slightly above the 12-day EMA ($68.85) but below the 26-day EMA ($70.38) and the 50-day average ($73.03), with the 200-day average well below at $64.65—this structure points to short-term resistance near the mid-60s to low-70s and durable longer-term support near the mid-$60s level.
Bollinger bands place price comfortably between the 1x bands (lower $64.24, upper $74.11), while the SuperTrend upper boundary at $72.90 acts as a near-term cap. Volume currently underperforms 10-, 50-, and 200-day averages, so any decisive directional move will likely require above-average volume to confirm continuation. Elevated short-term beta (42-day 3.07, 52-week 2.58) indicates outsized sensitivity to market moves and newsflow.
Fundamental Analysis
Affirm generated $933,337,000 in total revenue with operating cash flow of $374,572,000 and free cash flow of $320,207,000. EBITDA stands at $258,375,000 and EBIT at $193,046,000, producing an EBIT margin of 20.68%. Year-over-year, EBIT margin improved by about 23.80%, signaling margin expansion as revenue and operating leverage scale.
Revenue grew 8.96% year-over-year, while operating margin at 18.61% rose 21.31% YoY. Gross margin remains strong at 67.65%, slightly above the industry peer mean of 64.97% and consistent with a high-margin payments model. Operating profitability, however, stays below the industry peer mean for operating margin (industry peer mean 33.68%), indicating Affirm still lags broader IT services peers on operating efficiency despite recent improvements.
Profitability metrics show mixed signals: net income reached $80,694,000 and EPS came in at $0.23 versus an estimate of $0.11, yielding an EPS surprise ratio of 109.09%. Reported earnings growth shows contraction on key measures (earnings growth -56.60% and earnings growth YoY -146.62%), reflecting prior-period volatility and base effects; operating leverage gains did not fully offset those swings in reported earnings over the longer interval.
Balance sheet and liquidity readouts remain asymmetric. Cash and short-term investments total $2,241,290,000 and the company holds $1,428,848,000 in cash; the current ratio sits at an elevated 63.27, far above the industry peer mean of 1.37, reflecting significant short-term liquid assets versus modest current liabilities. Leverage measures paint a different picture: total debt of $7,958,291,000 produces a debt-to-assets ratio of 69.33% and debt-to-equity of 241.24%, both above industry peer means, meaning capital structure relies heavily on financing partners and loan funding facilities.
Valuation multiples appear extended. Trailing P/E at about 324.50 and P/B at 7.47 sit above the industry peer means (P/E peer mean ~122.82; P/B peer mean ~4.79). Free cash flow yield registers about 1.30%, modestly above the industry peer mean of roughly 0.93% but low in absolute terms relative to the enterprise value of $30,349,834,447. Enterprise multiple and EV/Revenue metrics also signal elevated expectations embedded in price.
Capital partnerships and recent incremental loan-buying commitments improve funding runway—management secured expanded purchase capacity that supports up to $750 million of loan purchases—reducing immediate refinancing risk and supporting originations. WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of stretched multiples, sizable leverage, and earnings volatility despite improving margins and healthy cash buffers.
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-09-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-11-06 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-02-05 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 1.8 B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 374.6 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -54.37 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 125.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ 341.2 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 2.1 B | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 933.3 M | |
| Forward Revenue | $ 112.1 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 301.9 M | |
| Depreciation | $ 65.3 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 65.3 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 759.6 M | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ 631.4 M | |
| EBITDA | $ 258.4 M | |
| EBIT | $ 193.0 M | |
| Operating Income | $ 173.7 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 110.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -110.03 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ 83.0 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ 2.3 M | |
| Tax Rate | 2.802 % | |
| Net Income | $ 80.7 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ 80.7 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.11 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.23 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.12 | |
| EPS Surprise | 109.091 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.12 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 11.5 B | |
| Intangible Assets | $ 542.6 M | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 2.8 B | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 10.1 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 2.2 B | |
| Cash | $ 1.4 B | |
| Net Receivables | $ 283.7 M | |
| Inventory | — | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 171.8 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 58.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | — | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 159.3 M | |
| Net Debt | $ 6.5 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 8.0 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 8.2 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 3.3 B | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -2.98 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 10.00 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 330.049 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 2.83 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 24.6 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 30.3 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | 117.464 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 0.373 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -65.097 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 354.718 AFRM: 117.464 mean: 104.068 median: 95.447 low: -218.656 |
|
| EV/R | 32.518 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 3.48 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.403 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.707 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.693 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | -1.52 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | -1.267 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 0.923 AFRM: 0.693 median: 0.356 mean: 0.26 low: 0.007 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 2.412 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | -5.725 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | -3.923 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | high: 2.861 AFRM: 2.412 mean: 1.319 median: 0.982 low: -1.675 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 7.467 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 1.251 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 66.931 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | high: 12.188 AFRM: 7.467 mean: 4.785 median: 4.548 low: -6.772 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | 324.496 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 152.086 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -349.011 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 403.784 AFRM: 324.496 median: 125.234 mean: 122.819 low: -292.051 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | -5.733 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 26.392 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 2.198 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 45.338 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 85.769 median: 56.608 mean: 44.964 AFRM: 26.392 low: 0.776 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 651.65 | |
| Forward PE/G | -11.512 | |
| Forward P/S | 219.665 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | 1.349 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.082 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 1.589 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | 16.057 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 0.496 median: 0.164 mean: 0.16 AFRM: 0.082 low: 0.012 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 2.629 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | -3.023 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | 24.499 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 16.243 AFRM: 2.629 mean: 2.093 median: 2.041 low: 0.09 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | — | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 34.703 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 11.992 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | — | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | -1053.348 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 197.089 AFRM: 11.992 mean: 11.52 median: 1.532 low: -157.517 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 0.094 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.058 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -0.832 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 11.2 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 11.2 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 11.2 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 2.8 B | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 9.9 B | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 14.066 | |
| Current Ratio | 63.27 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | 16.766 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -2.157 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | AFRM: 63.27 high: 6.28 mean: 1.367 median: 1.122 low: 0.118 |
|
| Quick Ratio | — | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | — | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | — | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | — | |
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | 30.801 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.353 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 1.755 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | 4.696 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | 3037.011 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 116.667 mean: 42.476 median: 27.876 AFRM: 1.755 low: -67.657 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 1.655 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 22.71 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | 2.901 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 6.495 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -45.471 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 8.958 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 51.745 % AFRM: 6.495 % median: 5.767 % mean: 5.444 % low: -41.658 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -56.604 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -131.632 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -146.615 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 300.0 % median: 5.542 % mean: -2.212 % AFRM: -56.604 % low: -200.0 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | 67.652 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -0.095 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | 0.745 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 90.505 % median: 77.282 % AFRM: 67.652 % mean: 64.966 % low: -57.234 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | 20.683 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | 2.128 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | 2379.976 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 112.717 % median: 48.872 % mean: 38.08 % AFRM: 20.683 % low: -145.564 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | 18.609 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -0.54 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | 2131.295 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 67.836 % mean: 33.682 % median: 23.884 % AFRM: 18.609 % low: -116.648 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ 320.2 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.3 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | 1150.0 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | 7.973 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 10.909 % AFRM: 1.3 % median: 1.031 % mean: 0.931 % low: -14.742 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | 1261.598 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -1583.238 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 214.935 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | AFRM: 1261.598 % high: 298.25 % median: 20.71 % mean: 18.035 % low: -451.668 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 3.968 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | 28.251 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 3.268 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.04 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | 0.713 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | 11.232 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -169.902 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 16.255 % mean: 4.851 % median: 4.727 % AFRM: 0.713 % low: -12.964 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | 1.705 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | 0.024 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 8.422 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -169.213 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.299 median: 0.044 mean: 0.034 AFRM: 0.024 low: -0.242 |
|
| DuPont ROE | 2.534 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | 1.671 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | 5.961 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | 1716.304 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 15.138 % mean: 9.051 % median: 7.295 % AFRM: 1.671 % low: -6.709 % |
|