Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:NGS) Accelerates Fleet Expansion While Momentum Threatens Near-Term Pullback

Operational strength and expanding rental capacity underpin upside potential, yet technical momentum indicators signal a risk of a short-term pullback. Fundamental margins and recent beat on EPS reinforce fundamentals while leverage and negative free cash flow constrain valuation.

Recent News

On November 10, 2025 the company reported third-quarter 2025 results and raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance, citing continued fleet deployments and contracted large-horsepower unit deliveries. Coverage on November 14 summarized Q3 rental revenue growth and management commentary about fleet growth and workforce challenges.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 30.24 indicates a strong trend environment; DI+ at 26.16 increasing conveys a bullish directional bias while DI- at 12.15 decreasing reinforces that bullish bias. These directional readings support the near-term upside case embedded in the valuation, but do not negate momentum risk described below.

MACD and signal line: MACD shows a peak & reversal, a bearish momentum development; the MACD line sits at 0.85 versus a signal line at 0.74, which constitutes a short-term bullish crossing, but the overall peak-and-reversal pattern signals fading momentum that could translate into price weakness despite the current crossover.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO reads 32.29 with a dip & reversal; the oscillator’s positive level indicates price sits above its target and therefore carries risk of a corrective move back toward that target, which conflicts with the directional indicators and raises pullback probability.

RSI: RSI at 58.81 and increasing indicates constructive near-term momentum without reaching overbought extremes, aligning with the bullish DI readings while leaving room for further gains before a technical exhaustion signal.

Price vs. moving averages and support structure: Latest close at $30.97 trades above the 20-day average ($30.24), 50-day average ($28.28) and 200-day average ($24.84), reflecting a bullish price structure; the 12-day EMA (30.38) trends higher. A technical pullback would likely find first support near the SuperTrend lower boundary at $28.65 and the 50-day average, while the price target mean of $34.49 marks a near-term upside reference.

Bollinger, volatility and volume context: Narrow 20-day standard deviation and the position inside the upper Bollinger band range ($31.18–$32.11 upper band levels) suggest contained volatility; average volumes remain below short-term daily prints, reducing conviction in large intraday directional moves.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability and margins: EBIT equals $10,649,000 and EBITDA $19,898,000. EBIT margin stands at 24.54%, above the industry peer mean of 21.997% and the peer median of 20.288%, and the margin improved QoQ by 1.25% and YoY by 5.73%. Gross margin at 38.20% expanded QoQ by 3.63% and YoY by 4.97% — margin expansion supports the company’s current valuation narrative and underpins the reported EPS beat.

EPS and recent earnings signal: Reported EPS of $0.45 versus an estimate of $0.34 produced an EPS surprise of +32.35%, reflecting stronger-than-expected near-term profitability that feeds into the elevated multiples observed across forward metrics.

Revenue and growth: Total revenue reached $43,401,000. Quarter-over-quarter revenue growth registered 4.88% while trailing twelve-month revenue shows a YoY contraction of 14.45%, indicating mixed top-line dynamics between recent sequential improvement and year-ago comparisons.

Cash flow and capital allocation: Operating cash flow equals $16,799,000 while free cash flow totaled negative $25,062,000, producing a free cash flow yield of -7.43%. Free cash flow metrics improved QoQ (free cash flow yield QoQ change ~54.69%) but remain negative on an absolute basis, constraining the firm’s ability to de-lever without drawing on external funding.

Leverage and coverage: Net debt stands at $208,000,000 with total debt $208,291,000 and a debt-to-EBITDA multiple of 10.47; interest coverage sits at 3.45. The company carries meaningful leverage relative to reported EBITDA, which elevates sensitivity to cash-flow swings even as margins stay above peer central tendencies.

Balance sheet and working capital: Current ratio at 1.83 and quick ratio at 1.06 provide near-term liquidity buffer; cash conversion cycle at 51.59 days tracks close to the industry peer mean. Capital expenditures totaled $41,861,000, with capex-to-revenue near -0.96, reflecting heavy fleet investment consistent with stated expansion goals.

Valuation snapshot: PE ratio 59.72 and forward PE 77.93 sit at elevated levels versus typical peer multiples; price-to-book 1.24 falls below the industry peer mean of 3.93 and peer median of 2.83, while price-to-sales 7.77 sits slightly below the peer mean of 8.63. WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting the combination of high earnings multiples, negative free cash flow and material net leverage despite above-mean operating margins and a recent EPS beat.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-10
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-09
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 325.0 K
 Operating Cash Flow 16.8 M
 Capital Expenditures -41.86 M
 Change In Working Capital -914.00 K
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta
 End Period Cash Flow
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 43.4 M
 Forward Revenue 7.8 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 26.8 M
 Depreciation 9.2 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 9.2 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 32.7 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 16.6 M
 EBITDA 19.9 M
 EBIT 10.6 M
 Operating Income 10.7 M
 Interest Income -328.00 K
 Interest Expense 3.1 M
 Net Interest Income -3.41 M
 Income Before Tax 7.6 M
 Tax Provision 1.8 M
 Tax Rate 23.5 %
 Net Income 5.8 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 5.8 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.34
 EPS Actual 0.45
 EPS Difference 0.11
 EPS Surprise 32.353 %
 Forward EPS 0.33
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 562.3 M
 Intangible Assets
 Net Tangible Assets 271.4 M
 Total Current Assets 51.0 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash
 Net Receivables 13.6 M
 Inventory 21.5 M
 Long-Term Investments 9.4 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 12.3 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 27.8 M
 Net Debt 208.0 M
 Total Debt 208.3 M
 Total Liabilities 290.9 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 271.4 M
 Retained Earnings 166.1 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 21.62
 Shares Outstanding 12.554 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.46
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 337.4 M
 Enterprise Value 545.7 M
 Enterprise Multiple 27.424
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 6.251 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 14.772 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 80.266
median: 41.597
mean: 38.368
NGS: 27.424
low: -39.124
 EV/R 12.573
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.072
 Asset To Liability 1.933
 Debt To Capital 0.434
 Debt To Assets 0.37
Debt To Assets QoQ 6.863 %
Debt To Assets YoY 13.188 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.955
NGS: 0.37
mean: 0.34
median: 0.328
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 0.767
Debt To Equity QoQ 12.149 %
Debt To Equity YoY 18.26 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 6.629
mean: 1.817
NGS: 0.767
median: 0.486
low: 0.001
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.243
Price To Book QoQ 7.273 %
Price To Book YoY 21.857 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 8.239
mean: 3.926
median: 2.833
NGS: 1.243
low: -0.551
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 59.724
Price To Earnings QoQ 1.008 %
Price To Earnings YoY 15.897 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 210.205
median: 66.119
NGS: 59.724
mean: 52.475
low: -205.39
 PE/G Ratio 6.122
 Price To Sales (P/S) 7.774
Price To Sales QoQ 4.284 %
Price To Sales YoY 23.438 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 26.398
mean: 8.633
median: 8.247
NGS: 7.774
low: 0.202
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 77.925
Forward PE/G 7.987
Forward P/S 43.088
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 1.269
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.08
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ -0.968 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -3.191 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.527
mean: 0.146
median: 0.146
NGS: 0.08
low: 0.025
 Receivables Turnover 3.174
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 11.8 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 125.459 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 6.266
NGS: 3.174
mean: 2.557
median: 1.95
low: 0.342
 Inventory Turnover 1.346
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ -8.075 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 5.167 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 25.021
mean: 3.66
median: 1.667
NGS: 1.346
low: 0.137
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 28.754
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 51.591
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 19.582 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 7.837 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 283.261
median: 62.82
mean: 61.485
NGS: 51.591
low: -106.205
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 1.87
 CapEx To Revenue -0.965
 CapEx To Depreciation -4.526
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 479.4 M
 Net Invested Capital 479.4 M
 Invested Capital 479.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 271.4 M
 Net Working Capital 23.2 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio 1.835
Current Ratio QoQ -6.956 %
Current Ratio YoY 4.255 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 8.853
mean: 2.002
NGS: 1.835
median: 1.409
low: 0.121
 Quick Ratio 1.061
Quick Ratio QoQ -13.904 %
Quick Ratio YoY -8.372 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 5.886
mean: 1.426
NGS: 1.061
median: 1.004
low: 0.119
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.468
 Cost Of Debt 1.209 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 3.451
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 11.595 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 11.285 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 24.78
mean: 7.238
median: 4.924
NGS: 3.451
low: -18.692
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.352
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 46.736
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 6.999 %
 Revenue Growth 4.879 %
Revenue Growth QoQ
Revenue Growth YoY -14.449 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 71.615 %
NGS: 4.879 %
median: -2.556 %
mean: -3.698 %
low: -41.644 %
 Earnings Growth 9.756 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -309.761 %
Earnings Growth YoY -44.716 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 116.667 %
NGS: 9.756 %
median: 5.455 %
mean: -3.458 %
low: -300.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 38.2 %
Gross Margin QoQ 3.633 %
Gross Margin YoY 4.971 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 86.511 %
NGS: 38.2 %
mean: 33.723 %
median: 30.384 %
low: -11.703 %
 EBIT Margin 24.536 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 1.25 %
EBIT Margin YoY 5.727 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 86.674 %
NGS: 24.536 %
mean: 21.997 %
median: 20.288 %
low: -67.009 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 24.675 %
Return On Sales QoQ 4.193 %
Return On Sales YoY 6.326 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 86.674 %
NGS: 24.675 %
mean: 23.259 %
median: 20.034 %
low: -53.182 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -25.06 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -7.428 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 54.686 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 500.485 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 9.049 %
median: 1.414 %
mean: 1.201 %
NGS: -7.428 %
low: -14.958 %
 Free Cash Growth 69.189 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -108.27 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -149.865 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 203.349 %
NGS: 69.189 %
mean: 21.398 %
median: 6.034 %
low: -303.183 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -4.333
 Cash Flow Margin 22.518 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.69
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.063 %
Return On Assets QoQ 5.248 %
Return On Assets YoY 4.626 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.354 %
median: 2.006 %
mean: 1.657 %
NGS: 1.063 %
low: -7.223 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.992 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ 9.338 %
Return On Equity YoY 6.764 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.234
mean: 0.075
median: 0.05
NGS: 0.021
low: -0.117
 DuPont ROE 2.152 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.699 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -0.701 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -62.684 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.654 %
mean: 3.026 %
median: 2.722 %
NGS: 1.699 %
low: -8.039 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term bias combines a bullish structural trend with rising risk of a corrective pullback. Directional indicators (ADX and DI+) favor continued upside momentum while MACD’s peak-and-reversal, a positive MRO, and the disparity between current price and target imply an elevated probability of a short corrective leg. Expect price behavior to oscillate between support near $28.65 (SuperTrend lower) / the 50-day average and resistance pressure around $34–$35 informed by the price target mean. Watch liquidity and volume for confirmation of directional conviction; elevated leverage and negative free cash flow remain the primary fundamental constraints that could amplify downside volatility if momentum falters.

About Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:NGS) delivers vital equipment and services to the energy sector across the United States. The company engineers, fabricates, operates, and maintains natural gas compressors, essential for oil and natural gas production as well as plant facilities. It designs and assembles compressor units available for both rental and sale, and manufactures a range of reciprocating natural gas compressor components, including frames, cylinders, and parts. In addition to compressors, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. provides flare stacks and associated ignition and control devices, crucial for the safe incineration of gas compounds like hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, and liquefied petroleum gases. The company also offers aftermarket services, supporting its compressor and flare sales operations, and runs an exchange and rebuild program for small horsepower screw compressors. Catering primarily to exploration and production companies, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. supports artificial lift applications and other energy production needs. Established in 1998, the company is headquartered in Midland, Texas, strategically positioned in the heart of the U.S. energy industry.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.