Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Posts Earnings Surge, Prepares For Near‑Term Margin Pressure

Olin’s recent operational gains produced a sharp earnings surprise, while margin compression and heavy leverage create pressure on near‑term profitability. Strategic shifts in EDC allocations signal a pivot toward higher‑value vinyls partnerships.

Recent News

On Nov. 11, 2025 Olin announced a long‑term ethylene dichloride (EDC) supply agreement with Braskem to support Brazil PVC production, following the company’s decision to reallocate EDC volumes after dissolving the Blue Water Alliance joint venture.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 25.93 indicates a strong directional market environment that supports meaningful short‑term moves; that strength raises the likelihood that the current technical setup will resolve with a clear directional move rather than chop.

DInegative stands at 30.12 with a peak & reversal, which signals DI‑ decreasing and therefore a bullish directional bias developing; DIpositive reads 16.97 with a dip & reversal, indicating DI+ increasing and reinforcing bullish momentum expectations.

MACD sits negative at -1.00 with a dip & reversal and a signal line at -0.90; momentum shows a bullish turn from recent lows, but MACD remains below the signal line and therefore has not issued a confirmed crossover buy signal.

MRO registers -33.95 and trends decreasing; the negative value indicates price below WMDST’s target and suggests material upside potential as mean‑regression pressure operates toward valuation targets.

RSI at 45.39 with a dip & reversal reveals a short‑term recovery from oversold conditions; momentum points toward rebound attempts while the oscillator remains below bullish territory thresholds.

Price behavior shows short‑term support near the 20‑day average ($20.37) and the 12‑day EMA ($20.39), with the 26‑day EMA ($21.46), 50‑day average ($23.35) and 200‑day average ($22.40) providing staged resistance; Ichimoku Tenkan and Kijun levels ($21.82 and $22.51) sit above the close, limiting scope for a sustained breakout.

Bollinger bands place the close inside the 1x band range (lower $18.95 / upper $21.80), implying room for a measured recovery toward the band center while volatility stays elevated given 42‑day and 52‑week volatilities of 4%.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue grew 12.05% year‑over‑year, while revenue fell 5.28% quarter‑over‑quarter, indicating seasonal and operational softness against a rising annual base. Total revenue reached $1,758,300,000 and gross profit amounted to $138,100,000.

EBIT at $40,000,000 produces an EBIT margin of 2.28%, which sits above the industry peer mean of 1.47% but below the industry peer median of 4.47%, reflecting relatively better operating conversion than many peers but lagging top‑quartile margins. QoQ EBIT margin contracted 26.06% and YoY margin contracted 73.88%, underscoring rapid margin compression over the past year.

EBITDA totaled $169,900,000 while operating margin measured 2.43% and operating income reached $42,700,000; EBITDA and operating income dynamics benefited from temporary items and tax‑credit recognition in the most recent quarter.

Earnings per share arrived at $0.39 versus an estimate of $0.09, producing an EPS beat of $0.30 or roughly 333% above consensus, which lifted near‑term earnings credibility but did not eliminate fundamental margin pressures.

Cash generation shows free cash flow of $181,300,000 and a free cash flow yield of 7.47%, a level above the industry peer mean (negative), which strengthens liquidity signals despite high nominal leverage. Operating cash flow reached $212,300,000 and end‑period cash totaled $223,800,000.

Leverage presents material constraints: total debt $3,284,100,000 with net debt $2,772,900,000, debt‑to‑equity 167.80%, and debt‑to‑EBITDA roughly 19.33x; interest coverage at 0.85x fails to cover interest expense comfortably. These metrics sit above the industry peer mean for debt‑to‑equity and indicate elevated refinancing and interest sensitivity.

Capital allocation shows capital expenditures of $31,000,000 and capEx-to-revenue at -1.76%; book value per share stands at $17.07 and price‑to‑book at 1.24, slightly above the industry peer mean of 1.16. Asset turnover at 0.2295 exceeds the industry peer mean of 0.1903, suggesting relatively efficient use of assets to drive revenue.

Profitability ratios highlight stress: return on equity at -0.07% and return on assets at -0.017% reflect near‑break‑even net income recently, while gross margin at 7.85% sits below the industry peer mean of 10.11%, confirming cost or pricing pressure in core product lines.

Strategic news around EDC reallocation — dissolution of the Blue Water Alliance and a long‑term supply agreement with Braskem — shifts commodity exposure toward contracted, higher‑value vinyls relationships and supports structural margin improvement potential over time.

WMDST values the stock as over‑valued given elevated leverage, compressed margins, and a valuation multiple set above justified enterprise and earnings power under current conditions.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-27
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-26
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 174.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 212.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -31.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 112.2 M
 Dividends Paid -23.00 M
 Cash Flow Delta 49.8 M
 End Period Cash Flow 223.8 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 1.8 B
 Forward Revenue -27.23 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 1.6 B
 Depreciation 129.9 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 129.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 1.7 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 138.1 M
 EBITDA 169.9 M
 EBIT 40.0 M
 Operating Income 42.7 M
 Interest Income 1.2 M
 Interest Expense 46.8 M
 Net Interest Income -45.60 M
 Income Before Tax -6.80 M
 Tax Provision -4.00 M
 Tax Rate 10.3 %
 Net Income -1.30 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -2.80 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.09
 EPS Actual 0.39
 EPS Difference 0.30
 EPS Surprise 333.333 %
 Forward EPS 0.70
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 7.7 B
 Intangible Assets 1.6 B
 Net Tangible Assets 338.0 M
 Total Current Assets 2.3 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 223.8 M
 Cash 223.8 M
 Net Receivables 950.4 M
 Inventory 919.1 M
 Long-Term Investments 70.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 901.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 19.2 M
 Total Current Liabilities 1.5 B
 Net Debt 2.8 B
 Total Debt 3.3 B
 Total Liabilities 5.7 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 2.0 B
 Retained Earnings 2.3 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.07
 Shares Outstanding 114.642 M
 Revenue Per-Share 15.34
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.4 B
 Enterprise Value 5.5 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.305
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -2.029 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 52.888 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 100.927
median: 44.164
mean: 42.781
OLN: 32.305
low: -85.347
 EV/R 3.122
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.918
 Asset To Liability 1.35
 Debt To Capital 0.627
 Debt To Assets 0.428
Debt To Assets QoQ -1.552 %
Debt To Assets YoY 2593.648 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.972
OLN: 0.428
median: 0.374
mean: 0.359
low: 0.001
 Debt To Equity 1.678
Debt To Equity QoQ 1.075 %
Debt To Equity YoY 2842.757 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.939
OLN: 1.678
median: 1.111
mean: 0.895
low: -3.408
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.241
Price To Book QoQ -13.325 %
Price To Book YoY -54.399 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 2.938
median: 1.531
OLN: 1.241
mean: 1.162
low: -0.695
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 1072.937
Price To Earnings QoQ 115.105 %
Price To Earnings YoY 1353.364 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA OLN: 1072.937
high: 98.712
median: 98.712
mean: 60.747
low: -80.679
 PE/G Ratio -32.188
 Price To Sales (P/S) 1.381
Price To Sales QoQ -20.921 %
Price To Sales YoY -60.934 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 3.603
mean: 2.453
median: 2.381
OLN: 1.381
low: 0.127
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 30.733
Forward PE/G -0.922
Forward P/S -0.089
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -3.019
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.23
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 6.319 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.595 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.297
OLN: 0.23
median: 0.217
mean: 0.19
low: 0.077
 Receivables Turnover 1.787
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 4.918 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -10.02 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 5.101
mean: 2.342
median: 2.306
OLN: 1.787
low: 1.5
 Inventory Turnover 1.806
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 2.566 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 8.958 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.963
OLN: 1.806
median: 1.447
mean: 1.401
low: 0.396
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 51.066
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 53.547
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -1.45 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 5.262 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 203.338
mean: 65.746
median: 56.995
OLN: 53.547
low: -28.879
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.374
 CapEx To Revenue -0.018
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.239
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 4.9 B
 Net Invested Capital 5.0 B
 Invested Capital 5.0 B
 Net Tangible Assets 338.0 M
 Net Working Capital 740.8 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.145
 Current Ratio 1.479
Current Ratio QoQ -5.452 %
Current Ratio YoY 3.435 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 5.406
mean: 1.998
median: 1.774
OLN: 1.479
low: 1.207
 Quick Ratio 0.885
Quick Ratio QoQ -7.49 %
Quick Ratio YoY 7.415 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.102
mean: 1.231
median: 1.042
OLN: 0.885
low: 0.518
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 19.33
 Cost Of Debt 1.118 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.855
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -18.077 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -72.186 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 15.559
median: 2.898
mean: 1.042
OLN: 0.855
low: -5.619
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.156
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 52.261
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio -0.057
 Dividend Payout Ratio -17.692
 Dividend Rate 0.20
 Dividend Yield 0.009
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.169 %
 Revenue Growth 6.94 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -528.131 %
Revenue Growth YoY 1204.511 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA OLN: 6.94 %
high: 3.76 %
mean: 1.273 %
median: -0.247 %
low: -0.949 %
 Earnings Growth -33.333 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -53.846 %
Earnings Growth YoY -178.333 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 192.857 %
median: 87.879 %
mean: 22.684 %
OLN: -33.333 %
low: -150.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 7.854 %
Gross Margin QoQ -13.158 %
Gross Margin YoY -45.703 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 32.826 %
median: 10.277 %
mean: 10.106 %
OLN: 7.854 %
low: 2.027 %
 EBIT Margin 2.275 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -26.064 %
EBIT Margin YoY -73.881 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 6.294 %
median: 4.466 %
OLN: 2.275 %
mean: 1.471 %
low: -8.093 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 2.428 %
Return On Sales QoQ -21.092 %
Return On Sales YoY -72.124 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 6.233 %
median: 4.139 %
OLN: 2.428 %
mean: 1.837 %
low: -5.365 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 181.3 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 7.466 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -245.451 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 1171.891 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA OLN: 7.466 %
high: 4.55 %
mean: -0.907 %
median: -1.031 %
low: -7.463 %
 Free Cash Growth -222.999 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -15.053 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 3047.925 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: -6.534 %
mean: -79.6 %
median: -82.298 %
low: -151.329 %
OLN: -222.999 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -139.462
 Cash Flow Margin 13.701 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -185.308
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.02
 Return On Assets (ROA) -0.017 %
Return On Assets QoQ -206.25 %
Return On Assets YoY -101.749 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 1.087 %
median: 0.323 %
OLN: -0.017 %
mean: -0.196 %
low: -3.991 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 0.653 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.001
Return On Equity QoQ -210.0 %
Return On Equity YoY -101.9 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.141
median: 0.01
mean: 0.002
OLN: -0.001
low: -0.089
 DuPont ROE -0.066 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 0.638 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 5.98 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -100.362 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 1.435 %
median: 0.997 %
OLN: 0.638 %
mean: 0.391 %
low: -1.917 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical indicators favor short‑term rebound attempts: MRO’s negative reading implies upward mean reversion potential, MACD shows a bullish dip & reversal without a confirmed crossover, and both DI lines display trend reversals that support upside momentum. Price must overcome the 26‑day EMA (~$21.46) and Ichimoku Kijun (~$22.51) to extend gains; failure to clear those levels likely keeps action range‑bound.

Fundamentals create resistance to sustained rallies: leverage and thin interest coverage add downside vulnerability during any macro or commodity setback, while improving free cash flow and the EDC reallocation strategy provide a fundamental floor. Expect elevated volatility and choppy price action with episodes of short‑term recovery attempts capped by medium‑term resistance levels over the next six weeks.

About Olin Corporation

Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) manufactures and distributes a diverse range of chemical products and ammunition across the globe, including the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Canada. The company operates through three primary segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment produces essential chemicals such as chlorine, caustic soda, and vinyl chloride monomers, along with a variety of chlorinated organics and solvents. The Epoxy segment delivers products including allylics like epichlorohydrin, aromatics such as bisphenol, and both liquid and solid epoxy resins. In addition to its chemical operations, Olin’s Winchester segment manufactures sporting ammunition for hunters and recreational shooters, law enforcement, and military applications. This segment also provides industrial products for maintenance and construction industries. Olin markets its products through a dedicated sales force, directly reaching industrial customers, retailers, wholesalers, and government entities. Founded in 1892 and headquartered in Clayton, Missouri, Olin Corporation continues to serve a broad array of industries with its comprehensive product offerings.



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