Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) Sees Bullish Momentum But Valuation Signals Caution

BBVA trades with upward momentum across multiple technical indicators while fundamental ratios show mixed signals versus peers; near-term price action should reconcile momentum with elevated valuation metrics.

Recent News

On October 30, 2025 BBVA presented third-quarter results showing loan growth and a reported decline in profit driven by currency effects; management emphasized organic growth and outlined shareholder distribution plans including a €993 million buyback program. On September 22, 2025 BBVA increased its takeover offer for Banco Sabadell to €17 billion and opened an exchange window in early September. On September 4, 2025 BBVA participated in a coordinated tender offer to repurchase certain Colombian sovereign bonds; in November 2025 the bank executed part of a share buyback program, purchasing roughly €231 million of shares. BBVA announced an issuance of €1.0 billion in preferred securities contingent convertible into ordinary shares, with discretionary distributions set at 5.625% from November 11, 2025 to November 11, 2032.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 26.44 indicates a strong trend in place; directional lines show DI+ at 41.24 and increasing while DI- at 21.36 decreases, which supports a bullish directional bias and strengthens the near-term price case.

MACD sits at 0.54, above its signal line at 0.39, with the MACD increasing; the cross above the signal line confirms bullish momentum and aligns with the DI+ strength.

MRO registers 32.28 and increases; the positive MRO indicates price currently sits above the model target and the magnitude implies a material probability of mean reversion, which introduces near-term downside pressure against momentum.

RSI at 61.43 and rising reflects firm buying momentum but not an extreme overbought reading; combined with MACD and ADX, the technical picture favors continuation while vulnerability to pullback grows if momentum stalls.

Price trades above short-, medium- and long-term averages: close $21.83 exceeds the 12-day EMA $20.65, 20-day average $20.42, 50-day $19.39 and 200-day $15.82; the 20-day standard deviation bands place the close near the upper band, indicating price testing the short-term upper range. Ichimoku lines (Tenkan $20.67, Kijun $19.90) sit below price and provide support; the SuperTrend lower band near $20.80 offers a proximate technical support reference. Volume on the day at 1,094,566 sits below 10-day and 50-day averages, suggesting reduced participation behind the latest advance.

 


Fundamental Analysis

EPS reported at $0.49 missed the $0.51 estimate, producing an EPS surprise of -3.92%, and forward EPS sits at $0.40 with a forward P/E of 44.21. Trailing P/E equals 37.75, below the industry peer mean of 51.08 and the industry peer median of 46.33, indicating a lower P/E relative to peer central tendencies.

Price-to-book stands at 1.85, above the industry peer mean of 0.88013 and the peer median of 1.07133 but below the peer high of 1.99312. Price-to-sales at 10.89 sits above the industry peer mean of 6.46 and median of 7.39. WMDST values the stock as over-valued, reflecting these elevated sales and book multiples relative to peer central measures.

Free cash flow yield equals 15.73%, which exceeds the industry peer mean of 11.52% and the industry peer median of 13.02 and slightly exceeds the industry peer high of 15.275%; operating cash flow totaled $17,170,000,000 and free cash flow reached $16,751,000,000, supporting a strong cash-generation profile despite higher nominal valuation metrics.

Return on equity at 4.391% sits marginally below the industry peer mean of 4.758%. Return on assets at 0.318% falls slightly under the industry peer mean of 0.381%. Revenue growth most recently shows 12.26% (aggregate) while the reported revenue growth YoY figure equals -187.27%; earnings growth reports include a recent value of -7.55% alongside an earnings growth YoY figure of 28.31%, indicating mixed period-to-period dynamics that warrant detailed reconciliation at the company level. Net interest income reached $6,640,000,000 and net income totaled $2,531,000,000 for the period ending 2025-09-30.

Capital structure shows debt-to-equity at 1.4589 and debt-to-assets 0.1034; the bank maintains cash of $66,001,000,000 and net tangible assets of $54,976,000,000. Cost of debt runs near 7.172% while economic value added stands at 0.04553, reflecting modest capital economic returns against a higher valuation backdrop.

Valuation context: trailing metrics show a lower P/E compared with peer central tendencies but elevated P/S and P/B vs. peer means and medians; strong free-cash-flow generation contrasts with WMDST’s over-valued determination, signaling that cash strength does not fully offset premium pricing in WMDST’s model.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 40.0 B
 Operating Cash Flow 17.2 B
 Capital Expenditures -419.00 M
 Change In Working Capital 13.5 B
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 17.1 B
 End Period Cash Flow 57.1 B
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 9.8 B
 Forward Revenue 2.2 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue
 Depreciation 236.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 379.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit
 EBITDA
 EBIT
 Operating Income
 Interest Income 14.8 B
 Interest Expense 8.1 B
 Net Interest Income 6.6 B
 Income Before Tax 3.9 B
 Tax Provision 1.2 B
 Tax Rate 31.179 %
 Net Income 2.5 B
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 2.7 B
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.51
 EPS Actual 0.49
 EPS Difference -0.02
 EPS Surprise -3.922 %
 Forward EPS 0.40
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 813.1 B
 Intangible Assets 2.7 B
 Net Tangible Assets 55.0 B
 Total Current Assets
 Cash and Short-Term Investments
 Cash 66.0 B
 Net Receivables
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities
 Net Debt 16.7 B
 Total Debt 84.1 B
 Total Liabilities 751.3 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 57.6 B
 Retained Earnings 54.4 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 10.02
 Shares Outstanding 5.755 B
 Revenue Per-Share 1.70
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 106.5 B
 Enterprise Value 190.6 B
 Enterprise Multiple
Enterprise Multiple QoQ
Enterprise Multiple YoY
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA
 EV/R 19.489
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 14.105
 Asset To Liability 1.082
 Debt To Capital 0.593
 Debt To Assets 0.103
Debt To Assets QoQ 11.925 %
Debt To Assets YoY 18.192 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.253
median: 0.174
mean: 0.173
BBVA: 0.103
low: 0.006
 Debt To Equity 1.459
Debt To Equity QoQ 15.467 %
Debt To Equity YoY 14.61 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.219
median: 2.47
mean: 2.222
BBVA: 1.459
low: 0.06
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.847
Price To Book QoQ 9.503 %
Price To Book YoY 68.348 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 1.993
BBVA: 1.847
median: 1.071
mean: 0.88
low: 0.001
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 37.755
Price To Earnings QoQ 34.667 %
Price To Earnings YoY 79.642 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 81.671
mean: 51.077
median: 46.326
BBVA: 37.755
low: 6.777
 PE/G Ratio -5.003
 Price To Sales (P/S) 10.889
Price To Sales QoQ -1.059 %
Price To Sales YoY 63.571 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 20.734
BBVA: 10.889
median: 7.39
mean: 6.464
low: 0.007
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 44.212
Forward PE/G -5.858
Forward P/S 47.886
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.012
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 9.431 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 7.895 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.02
BBVA: 0.012
mean: 0.01
median: 0.01
low: 0.005
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 60.417
median: 29.484
mean: 29.061
low: 10.398
BBVA: 0
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio
 CapEx To Revenue -0.043
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.775
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 140.3 B
 Net Invested Capital 140.3 B
 Invested Capital 140.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 55.0 B
 Net Working Capital
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio
 Current Ratio
Current Ratio QoQ
Current Ratio YoY
Current Ratio IPRWA
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA
 Cost Of Debt 7.172 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 4.645 %
 Revenue Growth 12.262 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -197.433 %
Revenue Growth YoY -187.274 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 13.707 %
BBVA: 12.262 %
mean: -1.565 %
median: -5.177 %
low: -11.514 %
 Earnings Growth -7.547 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -292.427 %
Earnings Growth YoY 28.307 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 39.326 %
BBVA: -7.547 %
mean: -11.934 %
median: -16.667 %
low: -61.932 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin
Gross Margin QoQ
Gross Margin YoY
Gross Margin IPRWA
 EBIT Margin
EBIT Margin QoQ
EBIT Margin YoY
EBIT Margin IPRWA
 Return On Sales (ROS)
Return On Sales QoQ
Return On Sales YoY
Return On Sales IPRWA
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 16.8 B
 Free Cash Flow Yield 15.733 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 317.986 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA BBVA: 15.733 %
high: 15.275 %
median: 13.024 %
mean: 11.518 %
low: 0.073 %
 Free Cash Growth
Free Cash Growth QoQ
Free Cash Growth YoY
Free Cash Growth IPRWA
 Free Cash To Net Income 6.618
 Cash Flow Margin 29.761 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.15
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.05
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.318 %
Return On Assets QoQ -10.423 %
Return On Assets YoY -7.558 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 0.582 %
mean: 0.381 %
median: 0.368 %
BBVA: 0.318 %
low: 0.079 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.044
Return On Equity QoQ -9.221 %
Return On Equity YoY -11.597 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.054
median: 0.052
mean: 0.048
BBVA: 0.044
low: 0.01
 DuPont ROE 4.422 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Return On Invested Capital QoQ
Return On Invested Capital YoY
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators favor continuation: rising DI+, MACD above its signal, increasing RSI and price above multiple moving averages support further upside risk. The MRO’s positive reading, however, signals the price currently sits above the model target and raises the probability of a corrective pullback or consolidation into the coming weeks. Expect price action to remain momentum-driven while testing short-term resistance near the upper Bollinger band and to find technical support near the SuperTrend lower band and the 12-day EMA if buyers pause. Lower-than-average volume behind recent gains reduces conviction and increases the chance of choppy, range-bound trading that resolves once either momentum intensifies or mean reversion gains traction.

About Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) delivers a wide range of financial services globally, with its headquarters in Bilbao, Spain. Established in 1857, BBVA serves both retail and corporate clients across various regions, including Spain, the United States, Mexico, Turkey, and South America. The bank provides a comprehensive array of products, including savings and demand deposits, time deposits, residential mortgages, consumer finance, and credit card loans. In addition to retail banking, BBVA offers wholesale banking services, such as corporate and commercial banking, small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) solutions, and investment banking. The bank’s asset management services, along with insurance offerings like life and pension plans, further enhance its financial services portfolio. BBVA also provides leasing, factoring, and brokerage services. BBVA prioritizes digital transformation, offering robust online and mobile platforms to ensure seamless banking experiences. Through its commitment to innovation and customer-focused solutions, BBVA maintains its standing as a leading financial institution, dedicated to supporting economic growth and promoting financial inclusion worldwide.



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