Energy Recovery, Inc (NASDAQ:ERII) Shows Overvaluation And Momentum Weakness Near-Term

Energy Recovery arrives into the next weeks with stretched valuation metrics and weakening technical momentum, suggesting near-term price pressure. Strong liquidity and durable gross margins provide a defensive backdrop while valuation stretches leave limited upside from multiple expansion.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 37.63 indicates a strong directional condition; with DI- increasing and DI+ decreasing the directional bias favors sellers, reinforcing the intro’s near-term downside view.

MACD stands negative at -0.20 and trending lower while remaining below its signal (0.21), which signals ongoing bearish momentum that supports pressure on short-term price levels.

MRO at -23.11 and decreasing implies price sits below mechanistic target levels, indicating available mean-reversion potential; that potential contrasts with the prevailing bearish momentum and suggests any rebounds could prove limited relative to the valuation stretch.

RSI at 53.78 and decreasing shows momentum sliding from neutral territory, aligning with moving averages that lie above current price: the 20-day average ($16.39) and 50-day average ($15.65) sit higher than the close ($14.05), while the 200-day average ($14.54) also exceeds the last trade, reinforcing near-term resistance and the downward bias.

Price sits near the lower Bollinger band (1x lower $14.67), with the SuperTrend upper at $15.50 acting as a nearer-term resistance level; price momentum indicators and decreasing short-term EMAs suggest the path of least resistance remains lower unless momentum indicators reverse.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue for the period totals $32.0M, with operating income of $3.662M and net income of $3.874M. Reported gross margin stands at 64.24% while operating margin measures 11.44%. The company reported EPS of $0.07 for the quarter in filings dated November 5, 2025.

Margins and profitability show mixed dynamics versus peers: EBIT margin registers 11.44%, below the industry peer mean of 23.84% and well below the industry peer median of 27.69%, while gross margin at 64.24% exceeds the industry peer mean of 44.47%, indicating strong product-level economics but elevated operating cost absorption relative to peers.

Quarter-over-quarter metrics show EBIT margin up roughly 17.77% QoQ, while year-over-year EBIT margin declined about 37.43% YoY. Revenue presents a sharp YoY contraction of 66.37% and a large sequential decline QoQ of 94.32% per the supplied figures; those shifts drive much of the operating margin compression despite healthy gross margin levels.

Balance sheet and liquidity display clear strength: cash and short-term investments total $70,381,000 and the current ratio reads 7.33x with a quick ratio of 5.75x, both well above the industry peer mean current ratio of 2.25x and quick ratio of 1.58x, providing substantial cushioning for operations and strategic flexibility.

Capital structure remains conservative with total debt of $9,999,000, debt-to-assets at 4.77%, and an interest coverage ratio of 366.2x, reflecting minimal leverage relative to industry peer means and supporting the firm’s ability to fund R&D and product development without meaningful interest burden.

Cash generation shows strain: operating cash flow registers negative $5.75M and free cash flow equals negative $3.47M (free cash flow yield -0.42%), while retained earnings and cash balances provide runway. Free cash flow trends year-over-year improved by ~30.03% but remain negative in absolute terms.

Efficiency metrics highlight working-capital intensity: the cash conversion cycle sits at 371.47 days versus an industry peer mean of 124.11 days, driven by elevated inventory days (299.25) and receivables dynamics, which could pressure near-term cash conversion despite strong liquidity reserves.

On earnings detail, diluted EPS outperformed the supplied estimate ($0.12 actual versus $0.10 estimate; EPS surprise ratio 20%), though headline profitability and revenue cadence show volatility that undercuts valuation support. The current valuation as determined by WMDST: over-valued.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-09-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-02-04
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 57.2 M
 Operating Cash Flow -5.75 M
 Capital Expenditures -342.00 K
 Change In Working Capital -11.54 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -10.08 M
 End Period Cash Flow 47.1 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 32.0 M
 Forward Revenue 15.0 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 11.4 M
 Depreciation 1.4 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 1.4 M
 Research and Development 3.7 M
 Total Operating Expenses 28.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 20.6 M
 EBITDA 5.1 M
 EBIT 3.7 M
 Operating Income 3.7 M
 Interest Income 847.0 K
 Interest Expense
 Net Interest Income 847.0 K
 Income Before Tax 4.6 M
 Tax Provision 680.0 K
 Tax Rate 14.9 %
 Net Income 3.9 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 3.9 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.10
 EPS Actual 0.12
 EPS Difference 0.02
 EPS Surprise 20.0 %
 Forward EPS 0.14
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 209.6 M
 Intangible Assets 12.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 168.0 M
 Total Current Assets 155.6 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 70.4 M
 Cash 47.1 M
 Net Receivables 44.0 M
 Inventory 33.6 M
 Long-Term Investments 428.0 K
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 4.7 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 21.2 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 10.0 M
 Total Liabilities 28.8 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 180.8 M
 Retained Earnings 101.8 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 3.41
 Shares Outstanding 52.980 M
 Revenue Per-Share 0.60
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 826.3 M
 Enterprise Value 765.9 M
 Enterprise Multiple 150.977
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -36.748 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 48.27 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA ERII: 150.977
high: 117.985
median: 67.118
mean: 64.157
low: 35.894
 EV/R 23.935
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 1.159
 Asset To Liability 7.276
 Debt To Capital 0.052
 Debt To Assets 0.048
Debt To Assets QoQ -4.121 %
Debt To Assets YoY 218.997 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 0.554
mean: 0.341
median: 0.301
ERII: 0.048
low: 0.005
 Debt To Equity 0.055
Debt To Equity QoQ -3.017 %
Debt To Equity YoY 229.107 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 1.894
median: 0.479
mean: 0.451
ERII: 0.055
low: 0.007
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 4.569
Price To Book QoQ 11.533 %
Price To Book YoY 8.875 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 10.413
ERII: 4.569
mean: 3.944
median: 3.131
low: 0.475
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 129.969
Price To Earnings QoQ -32.106 %
Price To Earnings YoY 14.966 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 179.822
ERII: 129.969
median: 90.943
mean: 90.507
low: 24.386
 PE/G Ratio 1.82
 Price To Sales (P/S) 25.821
Price To Sales QoQ -4.541 %
Price To Sales YoY 1.504 %
Price To Sales IPRWA ERII: 25.821
high: 25.677
median: 16.43
mean: 15.975
low: 0.672
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 103.8
Forward PE/G 1.453
Forward P/S 54.927
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 10.544
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.152
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 18.341 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 0.597 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.337
mean: 0.196
median: 0.173
ERII: 0.152
low: 0.108
 Receivables Turnover 0.835
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -3.237 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -43.143 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.96
mean: 1.388
median: 1.388
low: 1.223
ERII: 0.835
 Inventory Turnover 0.346
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 11.342 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -13.918 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.312
mean: 1.009
median: 0.993
ERII: 0.346
low: 0.25
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 109.219
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 371.474
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -55.889 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 8.83 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA ERII: 371.474
high: 204.825
mean: 124.107
median: 118.386
low: 21.668
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 0.238
 CapEx To Revenue -0.011
 CapEx To Depreciation -0.242
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 180.8 M
 Net Invested Capital 180.8 M
 Invested Capital 180.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 168.0 M
 Net Working Capital 134.4 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 3.317
 Current Ratio 7.335
Current Ratio QoQ -9.18 %
Current Ratio YoY -27.118 %
Current Ratio IPRWA ERII: 7.335
high: 4.43
mean: 2.247
median: 1.993
low: 1.049
 Quick Ratio 5.753
Quick Ratio QoQ -9.299 %
Quick Ratio YoY -30.611 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA ERII: 5.753
high: 3.401
mean: 1.583
median: 1.241
low: 0.678
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 1.971
 Cost Of Debt 0.083 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 366.2
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 148.44 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY -48.108 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA ERII: 366.2
high: 29.169
median: 14.987
mean: 12.033
low: -22.023
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio -0.271
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 36.999
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -1.239 %
 Revenue Growth 14.078 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -94.319 %
Revenue Growth YoY -66.367 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 18.995 %
ERII: 14.078 %
mean: 1.456 %
median: 0.843 %
low: -10.673 %
 Earnings Growth 71.429 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -147.619 %
Earnings Growth YoY -104.464 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA ERII: 71.429 %
high: 12.81 %
median: 7.5 %
mean: 3.599 %
low: -88.608 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 64.244 %
Gross Margin QoQ 0.373 %
Gross Margin YoY -1.291 %
Gross Margin IPRWA ERII: 64.244 %
high: 54.823 %
median: 44.494 %
mean: 44.471 %
low: 15.923 %
 EBIT Margin 11.444 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 117.774 %
EBIT Margin YoY -37.43 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 31.134 %
median: 27.692 %
mean: 23.837 %
ERII: 11.444 %
low: -6.816 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 11.444 %
Return On Sales QoQ 117.774 %
Return On Sales YoY -37.43 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 27.728 %
median: 26.891 %
mean: 23.379 %
ERII: 11.444 %
low: -3.602 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) -3.47 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield -0.42 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -179.395 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 30.031 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.472 %
mean: 1.361 %
median: 1.219 %
low: -0.385 %
ERII: -0.42 %
 Free Cash Growth -186.587 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 202.151 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 32.996 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 119.537 %
median: 87.724 %
mean: 65.543 %
ERII: -186.587 %
low: -226.486 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -0.896
 Cash Flow Margin -17.969 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -1.484
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.836 %
Return On Assets QoQ 95.527 %
Return On Assets YoY -44.615 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 5.102 %
median: 3.609 %
mean: 3.443 %
ERII: 1.836 %
low: -1.389 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 1.943 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.021
Return On Equity QoQ 93.147 %
Return On Equity YoY -40.927 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.079
median: 0.042
mean: 0.039
ERII: 0.021
low: -0.018
 DuPont ROE 2.117 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.723 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 151.533 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -129.139 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.234 %
mean: 4.8 %
median: 4.796 %
ERII: 1.723 %
low: -1.211 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term directional bias favors downside pressure. Strong ADX paired with rising DI- and falling DI+ supports seller control, while MACD negative and declining confirms bearish momentum. Price trading below short- and long-term averages and under the SuperTrend upper reinforces resistance into the coming weeks.

Contrasting signals exist: MRO negative suggests price sits below a mechanistic target and therefore carries mean-reversion potential; RSI near 54 leaves room for further downside without oversold extremes. Given stretched valuation metrics and negative free cash flow, rallies likely encounter resistance and should prove contained relative to prior highs.

Expect elevated volatility around releases and liquidity events, with the most probable near-term outcome being constrained rallies within a downward-biased trend unless momentum indicators cross back above their signals and the price recaptures the 50-day average.

About Energy Recovery, Inc.

Energy Recovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERII) designs and manufactures energy efficiency solutions aimed at reducing energy consumption and operational costs in the water and refrigeration sectors. Based in San Leandro, California, the company operates through two primary segments: Water and Emerging Technologies. In the Water segment, Energy Recovery offers products such as high-pressure exchangers, hydraulic turbochargers, and booster pumps. These products play a crucial role in enhancing the efficiency of seawater and brackish desalination, as well as wastewater treatment processes. Their Pressure Exchanger (PX) technology stands out for its capability to optimize energy use in desalination applications. The Emerging Technologies segment includes the PX G1300, a product engineered to improve energy efficiency in carbon dioxide-based refrigeration systems. This technology benefits supermarket chains, cold storage facilities, and industrial refrigeration users by enhancing their energy efficiency. Energy Recovery markets its solutions under various brands, including ERI, PX, and Aquabold, serving a diverse range of clients such as original equipment manufacturers, project developers, and engineering firms. Founded in 1992, the company continues to advance sustainable energy solutions, focusing on efficiency and environmental responsibility.



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