Dollar Tree, Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) Accelerates Margin Recovery While Momentum Extends Higher

Dollar Tree shows building technical momentum alongside improving operational margins year-over-year, while capital structure and revenue dynamics create material near-term constraints.

Recent News

On September 16, 2025 the company announced an Investor Conference at the NASDAQ MarketSite scheduled for October 15, 2025, with executive leadership presenting a refreshed long-term strategy. On October 15, 2025 the company outlined an operational and financial outlook at an Investor Day, reaffirming near-term guidance and highlighting initiatives intended to drive EPS growth in fiscal 2026.

Technical Analysis

ADX sits at 31.4, signaling a strong underlying trend that raises the probability of sustained price direction rather than rangebound action; that strength amplifies any signal from directional indicators.

DI+ shows a peak-and-reversal pattern, which reads as bearish pressure from buyers, while DI- trends lower, which reads as easing selling pressure; those opposing DI signals imply directional tension that the ADX currently favors the dominant trend strength.

MACD stands at 1.90 above its 1.06 signal and trends higher, indicating bullish momentum and a recent bullish MACD alignment versus the signal line.

MRO reads 28.14 and climbs, indicating the market price sits above the model target and therefore carries measurable mean-reversion downside risk despite momentum indicators.

RSI at 53.08 and rising shows modest bullish bias without overbought readings, supporting the potential for additional near-term upside provided momentum holds.

Price at $106.29 trades above short- and long-term averages — 20-day $101.89 and 200-day $91.04 — while the 12-day EMA increases; Ichimoku components place price above the cloud (Senkou B $104.12), reinforcing the technical uphill bias. Volume currently runs below short- and long-term averages, reducing conviction behind intraday moves and increasing the chance that momentum could stall without renewed participation.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue trends show contraction: revenue growth year-over-year declined by 55.108%, and quarter-to-quarter revenue change reads -99.225%, indicating meaningful top-line pressure when compared against prior periods.

Operational profitability shows recovery on a yearly basis: EBIT at $231,400,000 produces an EBIT margin of 5.063%, up 83.975% year-over-year but down 47.304% quarter-over-quarter; that EBIT margin sits marginally below the industry peer low of 5.10%.

Earnings per share exceeded expectations this period: actual EPS $0.77 versus estimate $0.41, an EPS surprise of 87.8% that reflects timing and discrete items highlighted by management.

Cash generation remains positive with free cash flow $380,100,000 and a free cash flow yield of 1.747%, roughly in line with the industry peer mean for yield; operating cash flow totaled $625,100,000 while cash and short-term investments reached $666,300,000.

Leverage measures present constraints: total debt $7,342,700,000 produces a debt-to-assets ratio of 54.858% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 203.675%; debt-to-EBITDA reads 18.66x, while interest coverage approximates 10.15x, which supplies near-term interest serviceability but leaves limited flexibility for aggressive capital deployment.

Efficiency and returns deliver mixed signals: asset turnover at 0.2886 sits below the industry peer mean of 0.3870, while return on equity equals 5.226%, below the industry peer mean of 6.666%; gross margin expanded 14.415% year-over-year to 34.432%.

WMDST values the stock as over-valued given the combination of stretched valuation multiples, elevated leverage, and revenue contraction despite improving margins and strong EPS beats.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-09-03
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-03
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 1.3 B
 Operating Cash Flow 625.1 M
 Capital Expenditures -245.00 M
 Change In Working Capital -227.30 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -553.90 M
 End Period Cash Flow 757.3 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 4.6 B
 Forward Revenue 1.9 B
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 3.0 B
 Depreciation 162.0 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 162.0 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 4.3 B
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 1.6 B
 EBITDA 393.4 M
 EBIT 231.4 M
 Operating Income 231.0 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 22.8 M
 Net Interest Income -22.80 M
 Income Before Tax 208.6 M
 Tax Provision 53.1 M
 Tax Rate 25.455 %
 Net Income 188.4 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 281.1 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.41
 EPS Actual 0.77
 EPS Difference 0.36
 EPS Surprise 87.805 %
 Forward EPS 1.51
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 13.4 B
 Intangible Assets 422.4 M
 Net Tangible Assets 3.2 B
 Total Current Assets 3.6 B
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 666.3 M
 Cash 666.3 M
 Net Receivables
 Inventory 2.7 B
 Long-Term Investments 217.5 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 1.6 B
 Short-Term Debt 299.5 M
 Total Current Liabilities 3.5 B
 Net Debt 2.1 B
 Total Debt 7.3 B
 Total Liabilities 9.8 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 3.6 B
 Retained Earnings 3.7 B
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.62
 Shares Outstanding 204.634 M
 Revenue Per-Share 22.33
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 21.8 B
 Enterprise Value 28.4 B
 Enterprise Multiple 72.281
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 80.018 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 43.205 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 85.579
DLTR: 72.281
median: 46.609
mean: 46.226
low: 17.483
 EV/R 6.222
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 3.713
 Asset To Liability 1.369
 Debt To Capital 0.671
 Debt To Assets 0.549
Debt To Assets QoQ 26.895 %
Debt To Assets YoY 892.725 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA DLTR: 0.549
high: 0.539
mean: 0.392
median: 0.35
low: 0.345
 Debt To Equity 2.037
Debt To Equity QoQ 0.578 %
Debt To Equity YoY 1102.616 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 2.13
DLTR: 2.037
mean: 1.297
median: 1.295
low: 0.884
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 6.036
Price To Book QoQ 38.092 %
Price To Book YoY 102.283 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 7.904
DLTR: 6.036
mean: 4.802
median: 2.988
low: 0.32
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 138.093
Price To Earnings QoQ 114.249 %
Price To Earnings YoY -9.663 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 158.733
DLTR: 138.093
mean: 71.806
median: 58.392
low: 8.181
 PE/G Ratio -3.551
 Price To Sales (P/S) 4.761
Price To Sales QoQ 29.426 %
Price To Sales YoY 59.544 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 8.195
DLTR: 4.761
mean: 4.527
median: 2.231
low: 0.354
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 65.209
Forward PE/G -1.677
Forward P/S 11.573
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 32.199
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.289
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 14.863 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -12.541 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.442
mean: 0.387
median: 0.384
DLTR: 0.289
low: 0.227
 Receivables Turnover
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Inventory Turnover 1.112
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 0.112 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 9.029 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.516
median: 1.381
mean: 1.344
DLTR: 1.112
low: 0.656
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 33.934
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -35.952 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 224.823
median: 50.135
mean: 45.547
DLTR: 33.934
low: -57.702
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 35.987
 CapEx To Revenue -0.054
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.512
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 6.0 B
 Net Invested Capital 6.3 B
 Invested Capital 6.3 B
 Net Tangible Assets 3.2 B
 Net Working Capital 127.0 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.191
 Current Ratio 1.036
Current Ratio QoQ -0.697 %
Current Ratio YoY 2.07 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 1.714
mean: 1.303
median: 1.253
DLTR: 1.036
low: 0.99
 Quick Ratio 0.267
Quick Ratio QoQ -62.698 %
Quick Ratio YoY 61.616 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 0.983
mean: 0.583
median: 0.32
DLTR: 0.267
low: 0.188
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 18.665
 Cost Of Debt 0.223 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 10.149
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -48.321 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 44.416 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 85.038
mean: 38.374
median: 11.5
DLTR: 10.149
low: 3.577
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.113
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 48.356
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate -26.823 %
 Revenue Growth -1.494 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -99.225 %
Revenue Growth YoY -55.108 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 10.916 %
mean: 7.108 %
median: 5.724 %
low: 2.796 %
DLTR: -1.494 %
 Earnings Growth -38.889 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -3.463 %
Earnings Growth YoY -26.827 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 57.692 %
mean: 24.364 %
median: 6.122 %
low: -5.814 %
DLTR: -38.889 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 34.432 %
Gross Margin QoQ -3.338 %
Gross Margin YoY 14.415 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 43.288 %
DLTR: 34.432 %
mean: 29.34 %
median: 28.987 %
low: 27.617 %
 EBIT Margin 5.063 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -47.304 %
EBIT Margin YoY 83.975 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 12.273 %
mean: 7.922 %
median: 5.55 %
low: 5.1 %
DLTR: 5.063 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.054 %
Return On Sales QoQ -47.398 %
Return On Sales YoY 83.648 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 11.544 %
mean: 7.595 %
median: 5.55 %
DLTR: 5.054 %
low: 4.54 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 380.1 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 1.747 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 27.332 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -296.292 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 2.359 %
median: 2.212 %
DLTR: 1.747 %
mean: 1.711 %
low: 0.669 %
 Free Cash Growth 62.367 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -177.836 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -133.18 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 130.623 %
DLTR: 62.367 %
median: 1.525 %
mean: -67.647 %
low: -351.485 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 2.018
 Cash Flow Margin 8.594 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 2.085
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.19 %
Return On Assets QoQ -35.987 %
Return On Assets YoY 101.014 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 3.528 %
mean: 2.224 %
median: 1.64 %
DLTR: 1.19 %
low: 0.944 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.338 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.052
Return On Equity QoQ -40.573 %
Return On Equity YoY 191.304 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.089
mean: 0.067
median: 0.061
DLTR: 0.052
low: 0.022
 DuPont ROE 5.017 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 2.723 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -39.543 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -88.013 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 7.091 %
mean: 4.595 %
median: 3.312 %
DLTR: 2.723 %
low: 2.028 %

Six-Week Outlook

Momentum indicators favor further upside while price remains above key averages, yet a positive MRO and below-average volume increase the odds of a corrective retracement if buying interest weakens. Strong ADX supports continuation of the current directional move; MACD and RSI provide bullish momentum confirmation. Fundamental forces complicate the view: meaningful YoY revenue decline and elevated leverage limit the margin for error and weigh on valuation. Expect higher short-term volatility and episodic pullbacks against the prevailing uphill bias as the market digests operational progress and capital structure risks.

About Dollar Tree, Inc.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) develops a significant presence in the discount retail industry, with its headquarters in Chesapeake, Virginia. The company manages two main segments: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Dollar Tree stores implement a fixed pricing strategy, offering a diverse selection of products for $1.25. Customers discover a variety of items, including consumables such as food, health and personal care products, and household essentials, alongside seasonal and specialty goods like party supplies and arts and crafts. Family Dollar expands the product range by offering a comprehensive selection of general merchandise. This includes consumables, home products, apparel, and electronics, meeting a broad spectrum of consumer demands. Shoppers find everything from groceries to fashion accessories in one convenient location. Both segments emphasize value and convenience, establishing Dollar Tree, Inc. as a preferred choice for budget-minded consumers in the United States and Canada. Dollar Tree, Inc. consistently grows its market presence, managing thousands of stores and distribution centers. The company remains committed to providing essential products at affordable prices, serving communities with a focus on quality and accessibility.



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