BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) Accelerates Margin Recovery While Technical Momentum Builds

BJ's Restaurants shows converging operational improvement and bullish technical signals that support a near-term positive bias, even as valuation signals and momentum indicators require careful monitoring.

Recent News

On August 27, 2025 BJ’s management announced participation at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, scheduling a fireside discussion and one-on-one meetings on September 10 in Nashville. Analysts updated coverage through late October and early November, with Barclays maintaining an underweight stance while adjusting its price target in late October; several outlets reported follow‑up analyst notes and a modest cluster of target changes. Insider disclosures show small executive share sales reported in August and September.

Technical Analysis

Directional Indicators (ADX / DI+ / DI-): ADX at 21.69 indicates an emerging trend strength. DI+ increased to 32.85 while DI- decreased to 21.69; the direction of both lines reads bullish and implies directional momentum favoring upside pressure on price.

MACD: MACD sits at 0.81, above the signal line at 0.32, with the MACD trend increasing; the recent cross above the signal line signals bullish momentum and supports a positive near-term price bias.

MRO (Momentum/Regression Oscillator): MRO at 35.28 (positive and increasing) indicates price sits above model target, implying potential mean reversion pressure; this creates a countervailing force versus short-term momentum.

RSI: RSI near 50.47 and rising shows neutral-to-constructive momentum without overbought readings, enabling room for further upside while avoiding immediate overextension.

Price vs Moving Averages and Bands: Price closed at $36.24, above the 12-day EMA ($33.82) and 20-day average ($33.11) and below the 200-day average ($36.32); this alignment signals short-term strength against intermediate resistance at the 200-day average. Bollinger bands show a 1× band range roughly $30.64–$35.57 and a 2× band up to $38.04, indicating current intraday volatility remains contained inside the wider band. Ichimoku components place short-term conversion and baseline around $32.69, providing a nearby support cluster.

Beta and Volume: 42-day beta at 1.65 and 52-week beta at 1.05 show elevated short-term sensitivity to market moves; recent volume (569,678) sits slightly below the 10-day average (600,406) but above the 50- and 200-day averages, suggesting participation without extended exhaustion.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Profitability And Margins: EBIT equals $24,975,000 and EBIT margin stands at 6.83%. Compared to the industry peer mean margin of 26.31% and industry peer median of 24.87%, the company’s EBIT margin remains below peers; QoQ improvement of 59.64% and YoY improvement of 49.48% demonstrate rapid operational leverage and margin recovery versus recent periods.

Revenue And Growth: Total revenue reached $365,597,000 with YoY revenue growth of 35.682% and period-to-period revenue growth of 5.065%; the company reported a strong QoQ revenue growth datapoint of 380.095% in the provided metric. These gains pair with improving operating margin (5.856%) and operating margin QoQ growth of 36.854% and YoY growth of 28.14%, signaling expansion in operating efficiency alongside top-line recovery.

Earnings And Cash Flow: Reported EPS of $0.04 exceeded the $0.03 estimate, producing a 33.33% surprise ratio. Operating cash flow of $62,279,000 and free cash flow of $41,906,000 produce a free cash flow yield of 5.04%; free cash flow yield sits above the industry peer mean of roughly 0.99% as provided, and free cash to net income of 188.70% underscores cash conversion strength. Cash balance stands at $25,964,000 with net debt at $34,536,000 and interest coverage near 19.63, indicating manageable interest obligations relative to operating earnings.

Leverage And Working Capital: Total debt equals $477,659,000 with debt-to-assets of 46.59% and debt-to-equity of 1.2357; debt-to-EBITDA measures about 10.93x. Net working capital sits negative at -$117,392,000, driven by current liabilities of $189,958,000 versus current assets of $72,566,000 and a current ratio of 0.382. These leverage and liquidity metrics require monitoring, particularly the elevated debt-to-EBITDA and the low current ratio.

Valuation Context: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Market multiples show a PE ratio of 42.12 and an enterprise multiple near 29.37; EV/Revenue measures about 3.51. Forward metrics include forward PE near 109.03 and forward EPS of $0.375, which indicate market expectations for different near-term earnings paths. WMDST’s valuation assessment highlights the disconnect between improving operational performance and prevailing market multiples.

Earnings Detail: The company released fiscal third quarter 2025 results showing revenue and adjusted profit improvements, including a shift to positive diluted net income per share after a prior loss; adjusted EBITDA improved year-over-year and restaurant-level operating profit expanded, supporting the margin narrative.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-10-30
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2026-01-29
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 19.0 M
 Operating Cash Flow 62.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -20.37 M
 Change In Working Capital 11.2 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 7.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 26.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 365.6 M
 Forward Revenue 34.2 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 303.5 M
 Depreciation 18.7 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 18.7 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 344.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 62.1 M
 EBITDA 43.7 M
 EBIT 25.0 M
 Operating Income 21.4 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 1.3 M
 Net Interest Income -1.27 M
 Income Before Tax 23.7 M
 Tax Provision 1.5 M
 Tax Rate 6.307 %
 Net Income 22.2 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 22.2 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.03
 EPS Actual 0.04
 EPS Difference 0.01
 EPS Surprise 33.333 %
 Forward EPS 0.38
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.0 B
 Intangible Assets 4.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 381.9 M
 Total Current Assets 72.6 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 26.0 M
 Cash 26.0 M
 Net Receivables 17.9 M
 Inventory 12.5 M
 Long-Term Investments 43.6 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 50.0 M
 Short-Term Debt
 Total Current Liabilities 190.0 M
 Net Debt 34.5 M
 Total Debt 477.7 M
 Total Liabilities 638.7 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 386.6 M
 Retained Earnings 313.4 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 17.43
 Shares Outstanding 22.181 M
 Revenue Per-Share 16.48
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 831.9 M
 Enterprise Value 1.3 B
 Enterprise Multiple 29.366
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -22.132 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 15.87 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 115.782
mean: 73.867
median: 71.611
BJRI: 29.366
low: -56.203
 EV/R 3.511
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.652
 Asset To Liability 1.605
 Debt To Capital 0.553
 Debt To Assets 0.466
Debt To Assets QoQ -6.205 %
Debt To Assets YoY 653.518 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.647
median: 0.724
mean: 0.699
BJRI: 0.466
low: 0.002
 Debt To Equity 1.236
Debt To Equity QoQ -9.389 %
Debt To Equity YoY 639.733 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 10.498
BJRI: 1.236
median: -1.551
mean: -4.617
low: -20.242
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 2.152
Price To Book QoQ 4.752 %
Price To Book YoY 1.773 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 19.124
median: 3.747
BJRI: 2.152
mean: -0.315
low: -25.016
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 42.119
Price To Earnings QoQ -26.947 %
Price To Earnings YoY -14.145 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 289.09
mean: 101.265
median: 95.392
BJRI: 42.119
low: -27.296
 PE/G Ratio 0.654
 Price To Sales (P/S) 2.276
Price To Sales QoQ 3.751 %
Price To Sales YoY -2.57 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 31.824
mean: 18.35
median: 16.293
BJRI: 2.276
low: 0.286
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 109.028
Forward PE/G 1.693
Forward P/S 24.302
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 13.375
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.358
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.878 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 6.725 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.621
BJRI: 0.358
mean: 0.199
median: 0.147
low: 0.02
 Receivables Turnover 21.354
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ -11.541 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY -6.082 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 42.739
BJRI: 21.354
mean: 8.249
median: 4.375
low: 0.692
 Inventory Turnover 24.451
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 5.057 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 11.308 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 63.048
median: 54.358
mean: 37.396
BJRI: 24.451
low: 0.492
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 4.273
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) -2.829
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ -18.248 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -65.058 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 60.416
median: 4.8
mean: 2.18
BJRI: -2.829
low: -59.918
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio -3.114
 CapEx To Revenue -0.056
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.087
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 447.1 M
 Net Invested Capital 447.1 M
 Invested Capital 447.1 M
 Net Tangible Assets 381.9 M
 Net Working Capital -117.39 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.137
 Current Ratio 0.382
Current Ratio QoQ -1.958 %
Current Ratio YoY 9.261 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.698
mean: 1.018
median: 1.012
BJRI: 0.382
low: 0.137
 Quick Ratio 0.316
Quick Ratio QoQ 0.601 %
Quick Ratio YoY 16.435 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.654
median: 1.178
mean: 1.043
BJRI: 0.316
low: 0.106
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.928
 Cost Of Debt 0.242 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 19.634
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 62.203 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 54.566 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 46.029
BJRI: 19.634
mean: 8.999
median: 6.755
low: -26.646
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.362
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 10.976
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 0.529 %
 Revenue Growth 5.065 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 380.095 %
Revenue Growth YoY 35.682 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 52.655 %
median: 14.912 %
mean: 13.68 %
BJRI: 5.065 %
low: -34.396 %
 Earnings Growth 64.407 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 152.26 %
Earnings Growth YoY -48.474 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 214.286 %
BJRI: 64.407 %
mean: 24.357 %
median: 19.476 %
low: -246.809 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 16.991 %
Gross Margin QoQ 6.36 %
Gross Margin YoY 9.662 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 82.429 %
mean: 42.135 %
median: 41.612 %
BJRI: 16.991 %
low: -15.915 %
 EBIT Margin 6.831 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 59.64 %
EBIT Margin YoY 49.475 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 47.508 %
mean: 26.312 %
median: 24.865 %
BJRI: 6.831 %
low: -41.862 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 5.856 %
Return On Sales QoQ 36.854 %
Return On Sales YoY 28.14 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 47.655 %
mean: 25.715 %
median: 24.801 %
BJRI: 5.856 %
low: -15.426 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 41.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 5.037 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -418.797 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 5496.667 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 7.323 %
BJRI: 5.037 %
mean: 0.991 %
median: 0.675 %
low: -3.222 %
 Free Cash Growth -447.422 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 153.432 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -798.42 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 178.828 %
median: -33.191 %
mean: -61.594 %
low: -342.665 %
BJRI: -447.422 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.887
 Cash Flow Margin 18.828 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 3.1
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 2.172 %
Return On Assets QoQ 65.928 %
Return On Assets YoY 32.197 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 7.107 %
mean: 2.936 %
median: 2.755 %
BJRI: 2.172 %
low: -4.298 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.99 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.057
Return On Equity QoQ 58.177 %
Return On Equity YoY 29.421 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.488
BJRI: 0.057
median: 0.037
mean: 0.011
low: -0.628
 DuPont ROE 5.859 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.234 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 62.648 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -79.961 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 16.565 %
mean: 7.209 %
median: 6.805 %
BJRI: 5.234 %
low: -8.237 %

Six-Week Outlook

Technical momentum currently favors upside: DI+ rising, MACD above its signal, and an RSI that allows room for further gains. Short-term support clusters center near the 12/26-day EMA region (~$33) and the ichimoku baseline (~$32.69); immediate resistance aligns with the 200-day average near $36.32 and the upper Bollinger zone near $38.04. MRO’s positive reading warns of mean-reverting pressure if price extends too far above valuation targets, and leverage metrics warrant attention for any broad market volatility. Overall, expect a constructive technical bias while monitoring for reversion signs driven by MRO and elevated short-term beta.

About BJ’s Restaurants, Inc.

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ:BJRI) delivers a distinctive dining experience in the American casual dining sector. Established in 1978 and based in Huntington Beach, California, BJ’s Restaurants have built a reputation for their inviting atmosphere and diverse culinary offerings. The company crafts a menu that includes its signature deep-dish pizzas, a variety of entrees, and their renowned Pizookie dessert. BJ’s places a strong emphasis on quality ingredients and innovative dishes to cater to a wide range of palates. Beyond food, BJ’s Restaurants also brew a selection of handcrafted beers in-house, enhancing the dining experience with unique beverage options. This dedication to craft beer complements their culinary offerings and attracts beer enthusiasts. BJ’s Restaurants consistently expand their presence across the United States, adapting to changing consumer preferences while maintaining a commitment to exceptional service. The company creates family-friendly environments that appeal to a broad audience, including families, friends, and food lovers. Through their focus on quality, innovation, and customer satisfaction, BJ’s Restaurants continue to thrive in the competitive casual dining landscape.



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