Recent News
On Oct. 24–25 analysts lifted targets and published mixed coverage after fresh upgrades and target increases; the stock traded to a new 52-week high on those notes. On Oct. 12 a major bank raised its target, and subsequent analyst notes through mid-October adjusted targets higher while many firms kept underperform/sell views. On Aug. 1 coverage summarized management’s halt of the cash dividend and elevated regulatory obligations affecting near-term cash flow.
Technical Analysis
Directional indicators show trend strength: ADX at 29.03 denotes a strong directional trend while DI+ increases and DI- decreases, a bullish directional divergence that supports further near-term upside against the current valuation headwind.
MACD currently sits above its signal line (MACD $1.19 vs signal $1.08), which reflects a recent bullish cross; the MACD trend shows a peak-and-reversal, indicating bearish momentum developing even with the cross in place—momentum risks therefore point toward a short-term pullback after the recent advance.
MRO reads positive at 0.79 with a peak-and-reversal trend; price sits marginally above its regression target, creating slight downside pressure rather than a compelling momentum-driven push higher.
RSI at 58.9 with a peak-and-reversal pattern signals faded buying intensity from recent highs; the oscillator sits below overbought levels but suggests momentum cooling rather than accelerating.
Price sits at $37.10 above the 20-day average ($36.56), the 50-day average ($34.06) and well above the 200-day average ($25.51), with the 12-day EMA showing a peak-and-reversal. Upper Bollinger band near $39.13 places current price below immediate resistance while the lower band near $33.99 and the SuperTrend lower support at $36.42 provide nearby technical floors—these levels frame a tight trading band against the WMDST over-valuation view.
Short-term volatility and activity show elevated risk: 42-day beta 1.64 and 10-day average volume below current session volume signal heavier trading interest that can amplify intraday moves but not necessarily change the valuation bias.
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability remains weak. EBIT recorded negative $102,000,000, EBITDA negative $24,000,000, and net income negative $114,000,000. Operating margin stands at -5.906% and EBIT margin at -5.792%; both compare unfavorably to the industry peer mean (EBIT margin industry peer mean 2.698%). QoQ change in EBIT margin equals -26.09% and YoY change equals -467.51%, underscoring acute margin deterioration versus the prior periods.
Top-line performance shows pockets of strength: total revenue $1,761,000,000 and YoY revenue growth +25.17% provide operating scale and growth offsetting some margin pressure, while revenue QoQ declined by -145.19% per the reported QoQ figure.
Cash flow and liquidity deliver a mixed picture. Operating cash flow $176,000,000 contrasts with free cash flow negative $13,000,000. Cash and short-term investments $596,000,000 provide a buffer; the cash ratio sits at 0.50 and the current ratio at 1.17, both below the industry peer mean current ratio of 1.56 and quick ratio industry peer mean 0.96, indicating tighter near-term liquidity relative to peers.
Leverage and capital structure present elevated risk: total debt $1,877,000,000, net debt $1,205,000,000 and debt-to-equity 4.03x far above the industry peer mean (debt-to-equity industry peer mean ~1.21). Debt-to-assets 47.11% also runs near the industry peer mean but the debt-to-equity magnitude underscores equity dilution and financing strain.
Returns and growth metrics underperform: return on equity -24.46% versus an industry peer mean of 3.13%; earnings growth -81.15% compared with an industry peer mean contraction of -42.49%. Gross margin -3.861% and operating margin -5.906% fall below industry peer means, reflecting margin compression in refining operations and higher operational costs.
Market and per-share metrics show valuation disconnects. Book value per share $4.64 contrasts with a price-to-book ratio near 5.82x, well above the industry peer mean and median for price-to-book. Trailing P/E sits negative at -113.43 while forward P/E runs extremely high near 440x on forward EPS $0.0525, reflecting depressed forward earnings and elevated market pricing. EPS for the latest quarter came in at $0.40 versus estimate $0.23, a beat of $0.17 and an EPS surprise ratio of 73.91%.
WMDST values the stock as over-valued. Key drivers for that valuation include negative operating margins, materially higher leverage than peers, free cash flow weakness, and a share price that sits modestly above the analyst mean target ($35.41 mean target vs. $37.10 close, roughly 4.8% above the mean target).
MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
| REPORT PERIOD ENDING: | 2025-06-30 |
| REPORT DATE: | 2025-10-29 |
| NEXT REPORT DATE: | 2026-01-28 |
| CASH FLOW | Begin Period Cash Flow | $ 695.0 M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $ 176.0 M | |
| Capital Expenditures | $ -189.00 M | |
| Change In Working Capital | $ 209.0 M | |
| Dividends Paid | — | |
| Cash Flow Delta | $ -99.00 M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | $ 596.0 M | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | REVENUE | |
| Total Revenue | $ 1.8 B | |
| Forward Revenue | $ -20.38 M | |
| COSTS | ||
| Cost Of Revenue | $ 1.8 B | |
| Depreciation | $ 78.0 M | |
| Depreciation and Amortization | $ 78.0 M | |
| Research and Development | — | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ 1.9 B | |
| PROFITABILITY | ||
| Gross Profit | $ -68.00 M | |
| EBITDA | $ -24.00 M | |
| EBIT | $ -102.00 M | |
| Operating Income | $ -104.00 M | |
| Interest Income | — | |
| Interest Expense | $ 30.0 M | |
| Net Interest Income | $ -30.00 M | |
| Income Before Tax | $ -132.00 M | |
| Tax Provision | $ -42.00 M | |
| Tax Rate | 31.7 % | |
| Net Income | $ -114.00 M | |
| Net Income From Continuing Operations | $ -90.00 M | |
| EARNINGS | ||
| EPS Estimate | $ 0.23 | |
| EPS Actual | $ 0.40 | |
| EPS Difference | $ 0.17 | |
| EPS Surprise | 73.913 % | |
| Forward EPS | $ 0.05 | |
| BALANCE SHEET | ASSETS | |
| Total Assets | $ 4.0 B | |
| Intangible Assets | — | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 466.0 M | |
| Total Current Assets | $ 1.4 B | |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | $ 596.0 M | |
| Cash | $ 596.0 M | |
| Net Receivables | $ 245.0 M | |
| Inventory | $ 503.0 M | |
| Long-Term Investments | $ 437.0 M | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Accounts Payable | $ 462.0 M | |
| Short-Term Debt | $ 12.0 M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $ 1.2 B | |
| Net Debt | $ 1.2 B | |
| Total Debt | $ 1.9 B | |
| Total Liabilities | $ 3.3 B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Total Equity | $ 466.0 M | |
| Retained Earnings | $ -1.04 B | |
| VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS | EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS | |
| Book Value Per-Share | $ 4.64 | |
| Shares Outstanding | 100.531 M | |
| Revenue Per-Share | $ 17.52 | |
| VALUATION | Market Capitalization | $ 2.7 B |
| Enterprise Value | $ 4.0 B | |
| Enterprise Multiple | -166.323 | |
| Enterprise Multiple QoQ | 223.621 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple YoY | -912.422 % | |
| Enterprise Multiple IPRWA | high: 42.171 median: 42.171 mean: 20.497 low: -66.591 CVI: -166.323 |
|
| EV/R | 2.267 | |
| CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||
| Asset To Equity | 8.549 | |
| Asset To Liability | 1.201 | |
| Debt To Capital | 0.801 | |
| Debt To Assets | 0.471 | |
| Debt To Assets QoQ | 3.556 % | |
| Debt To Assets YoY | 23456.5 % | |
| Debt To Assets IPRWA | high: 1.434 median: 0.578 mean: 0.532 CVI: 0.471 low: 0.005 |
|
| Debt To Equity | 4.028 | |
| Debt To Equity QoQ | 20.795 % | |
| Debt To Equity YoY | 42659.023 % | |
| Debt To Equity IPRWA | CVI: 4.028 high: 2.037 median: 2.037 mean: 1.207 low: -2.315 |
|
| PRICE-BASED VALUATION | ||
| Price To Book (P/B) | 5.817 | |
| Price To Book QoQ | 77.943 % | |
| Price To Book YoY | 82.432 % | |
| Price To Book IPRWA | CVI: 5.817 high: 2.057 median: 1.8 mean: 0.993 low: -1.3 |
|
| Price To Earnings (P/E) | -113.427 | |
| Price To Earnings QoQ | 248.814 % | |
| Price To Earnings YoY | -137.91 % | |
| Price To Earnings IPRWA | high: 428.146 median: 163.562 mean: 123.477 low: -8.971 CVI: -113.427 |
|
| PE/G Ratio | 1.398 | |
| Price To Sales (P/S) | 1.539 | |
| Price To Sales QoQ | 33.631 % | |
| Price To Sales YoY | 11.846 % | |
| Price To Sales IPRWA | high: 2.671 CVI: 1.539 median: 1.368 mean: 1.052 low: 0.1 |
|
| FORWARD MULTIPLES | ||
| Forward P/E | 440.009 | |
| Forward PE/G | -5.422 | |
| Forward P/S | -132.996 | |
| EFFICIENCY | OPERATIONAL | |
| Operating Leverage | -2.996 | |
| ASSET & SALES | ||
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.428 | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ | 10.611 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio YoY | -11.983 % | |
| Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA | CVI: 0.428 high: 0.375 median: 0.375 mean: 0.35 low: 0.063 |
|
| Receivables Turnover | 6.234 | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ | 16.454 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY | -12.691 % | |
| Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 9.362 mean: 6.406 CVI: 6.234 median: 5.979 low: 1.768 |
|
| Inventory Turnover | 3.362 | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ | 5.079 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY | 0.582 % | |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA | high: 7.808 mean: 4.763 median: 4.345 CVI: 3.362 low: 1.024 |
|
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 14.638 | |
| CASH CYCLE | ||
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) | 14.796 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ | -3.51 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY | 0.954 % | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA | high: 67.637 mean: 19.408 median: 15.359 CVI: 14.796 low: -14.527 |
|
| CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT | ||
| Cash Conversion Ratio | 8.761 | |
| CapEx To Revenue | -0.107 | |
| CapEx To Depreciation | -2.423 | |
| CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE | CAPITAL STRUCTURE | |
| Total Capital | $ 2.3 B | |
| Net Invested Capital | $ 2.3 B | |
| Invested Capital | $ 2.3 B | |
| Net Tangible Assets | $ 466.0 M | |
| Net Working Capital | $ 201.0 M | |
| LIQUIDITY | ||
| Cash Ratio | 0.5 | |
| Current Ratio | 1.169 | |
| Current Ratio QoQ | -11.119 % | |
| Current Ratio YoY | -19.941 % | |
| Current Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.615 mean: 1.555 median: 1.523 CVI: 1.169 low: 0.062 |
|
| Quick Ratio | 0.746 | |
| Quick Ratio QoQ | -12.027 % | |
| Quick Ratio YoY | -19.615 % | |
| Quick Ratio IPRWA | high: 2.096 mean: 0.961 median: 0.799 CVI: 0.746 low: 0.024 |
|
| COVERAGE & LEVERAGE | ||
| Debt To EBITDA | -78.208 | |
| Cost Of Debt | 1.073 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | -3.4 | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ | -34.109 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio YoY | -308.387 % | |
| Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA | high: 3.258 median: 1.756 mean: 1.422 CVI: -3.4 low: -5.345 |
|
| Operating Cash Flow Ratio | -0.031 | |
| TIMING / LIQUIDITY | ||
| Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | 28.388 | |
| DIVIDENDS | ||
| Dividend Coverage Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | — | |
| Dividend Rate | — | |
| Dividend Yield | — | |
| PERFORMANCE | GROWTH | |
| Asset Growth Rate | -6.281 % | |
| Revenue Growth | 6.987 % | |
| Revenue Growth QoQ | -145.194 % | |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 25.17 % | |
| Revenue Growth IPRWA | high: 49.139 % CVI: 6.987 % mean: 4.151 % median: 4.074 % low: -8.094 % |
|
| Earnings Growth | -81.148 % | |
| Earnings Growth QoQ | -123.443 % | |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -164.918 % | |
| Earnings Growth IPRWA | high: 20.0 % mean: -42.49 % median: -72.727 % CVI: -81.148 % low: -111.111 % |
|
| MARGINS | ||
| Gross Margin | -3.861 % | |
| Gross Margin QoQ | -31.664 % | |
| Gross Margin YoY | -238.09 % | |
| Gross Margin IPRWA | high: 60.231 % mean: 8.211 % median: 7.699 % CVI: -3.861 % low: -6.422 % |
|
| EBIT Margin | -5.792 % | |
| EBIT Margin QoQ | -26.094 % | |
| EBIT Margin YoY | -467.513 % | |
| EBIT Margin IPRWA | high: 16.295 % median: 4.007 % mean: 2.698 % CVI: -5.792 % low: -24.288 % |
|
| Return On Sales (ROS) | -5.906 % | |
| Return On Sales QoQ | -24.64 % | |
| Return On Sales YoY | -474.746 % | |
| Return On Sales IPRWA | high: 13.351 % median: 3.729 % mean: 1.976 % CVI: -5.906 % low: -20.431 % |
|
| CASH FLOW | ||
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $ -13.00 M | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -0.48 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ | -96.851 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield YoY | -316.216 % | |
| Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA | high: 16.97 % mean: 4.297 % median: 1.125 % CVI: -0.48 % low: -6.637 % |
|
| Free Cash Growth | -95.502 % | |
| Free Cash Growth QoQ | -89.421 % | |
| Free Cash Growth YoY | 0.618 % | |
| Free Cash Growth IPRWA | high: 50.909 % median: 50.909 % mean: -44.103 % CVI: -95.502 % low: -215.926 % |
|
| Free Cash To Net Income | 0.114 | |
| Cash Flow Margin | -2.101 % | |
| Cash Flow To Earnings | 0.325 | |
| VALUE & RETURNS | ||
| Economic Value Added | $ 0.03 | |
| Return On Assets (ROA) | -2.769 % | |
| Return On Assets QoQ | -4.154 % | |
| Return On Assets YoY | -633.526 % | |
| Return On Assets IPRWA | high: 2.611 % median: 0.313 % mean: 0.0 % CVI: -2.769 % low: -9.697 % |
|
| Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) | -3.652 % | |
| Return On Equity (ROE) | -0.245 | |
| Return On Equity QoQ | 15.358 % | |
| Return On Equity YoY | -1089.244 % | |
| Return On Equity IPRWA | high: 0.146 mean: 0.031 median: 0.011 low: -0.098 CVI: -0.245 |
|
| DuPont ROE | -21.799 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) | -3.068 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital QoQ | -14.564 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital YoY | -27.59 % | |
| Return On Invested Capital IPRWA | high: 5.084 % median: 1.678 % mean: 1.208 % CVI: -3.068 % low: -22.57 % |
|