Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS) Accelerates Expansion While Valuation Pressures Near-Term Momentum

Dutch Bros shows accelerating operational momentum backed by margin expansion and store growth, while market multiples and cash-yield metrics signal valuation pressure that could constrain near-term upside.

Recent News

On Sept. 15, 2025 Dutch Bros and the Dutch Bros Foundation announced a Buck For Kids fundraising drive, donating $1 per drink sold at company locations and coordinating with franchise partners for local youth organizations.

Local reporting noted Dutch Bros’ Texas shops ran a donation promotion tied to flood relief following July floods, with proceeds directed to disaster assistance organizations.

Technical Analysis

ADX at 27.34 indicates a strong trend environment; directional indicators show DI+ at 24.93 increasing and DI- at 19.99 decreasing, which together point to bullish directional pressure supporting short-term upside versus valuation headwinds.

MACD reads -0.01 while the MACD signal sits at -1.19 and MACD trend shows increasing momentum; the MACD has crossed above its signal line, a bullish momentum signal that aligns with recent positive directional indicator movement.

MRO stands at 12.49 and trending higher; the positive MRO indicates price sits above model target and therefore implies a higher probability of downward mean reversion if momentum cools, adding a counterweight to MACD/DI+ bullishness.

RSI at 47.12 and rising places momentum near neutral territory rather than overbought, suggesting continuation of the recent directional move remains possible but not yet overstretched.

Price sits above the 20-day average ($55.15) and roughly in line with the 50-day average ($59.36), while remaining below the 200-day average ($63.86); price trades slightly above the 1x Bollinger upper band ($58.83), indicating short-term stretch relative to recent volatility and leaving room for consolidation near the super trend support at $54.32.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Revenue totaled $415,813,000 with YoY revenue growth at -5.68% and trailing revenue growth overall at 17.08%; quarterly revenue growth shows a sharp QoQ uptick of 373.52%, reflecting recent acceleration in store openings and same-store activity.

Operating income registered $54,659,000 and EBIT $52,676,000. Operating margin measured 13.15%, rising 50.33% QoQ and 29.38% YoY, while EBIT margin stands at 12.67%, which sits slightly below the industry peer mean of 13.15% but above the industry peer median of 9.20%, indicating margins compare favorably to the typical peer but just under the peer mean. EBIT margin QoQ improved 44.88% and YoY improved 24.69%.

Net income reached $25,624,000 with EPS of $0.20 versus an estimate of $0.18, producing an EPS surprise of 11.11% (EPS surprise ratio 0.11111). Forward EPS sits at $0.135 and forward P/E rises to 496.69, reflecting low forward earnings and carrying elevated forward multiples.

Leverage remains elevated: total debt equals $980,938,000, debt-to-assets at 34.88% and debt-to-equity at 154.20%. Interest coverage reads 7.44x, indicating operating earnings cover interest expense comfortably but debt levels remain material relative to equity.

Cash and short-term investments total $254,415,000 with operating cash flow at $89,897,000 and free cash flow $35,686,000. Free cash flow yield equals 0.43%, which sits above the industry peer mean free cash flow yield of 0.30% (industry peer mean 0.297%). Free cash growth displays mixed signals: a YoY increase versus QoQ volatility in yield metrics.

Valuation multiples remain extended: P/E of 246.70, P/B of 13.13, and P/S of 20.08 reflect rich market pricing relative to earnings and book value. WMDST values the stock as over-valued based on these multiples alongside near-term cash-yield and leverage metrics.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 316.4 M
 Operating Cash Flow 89.9 M
 Capital Expenditures -54.21 M
 Change In Working Capital 6.7 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta -62.03 M
 End Period Cash Flow 254.4 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 415.8 M
 Forward Revenue 69.5 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 295.8 M
 Depreciation 27.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 27.9 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 361.2 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 120.0 M
 EBITDA 80.6 M
 EBIT 52.7 M
 Operating Income 54.7 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 7.1 M
 Net Interest Income -7.08 M
 Income Before Tax 45.6 M
 Tax Provision 7.2 M
 Tax Rate 15.9 %
 Net Income 25.6 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 38.4 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.18
 EPS Actual 0.20
 EPS Difference 0.02
 EPS Surprise 11.111 %
 Forward EPS 0.14
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 2.8 B
 Intangible Assets 23.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 612.5 M
 Total Current Assets 325.6 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 254.4 M
 Cash 254.4 M
 Net Receivables 13.5 M
 Inventory 42.4 M
 Long-Term Investments 2.2 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 33.6 M
 Short-Term Debt 3.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities 198.9 M
 Net Debt
 Total Debt 980.9 M
 Total Liabilities 2.0 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 636.2 M
 Retained Earnings 60.6 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 5.01
 Shares Outstanding 126.932 M
 Revenue Per-Share 3.28
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 8.4 B
 Enterprise Value 9.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 112.669
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -22.631 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 54.761 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 218.482
median: 196.872
mean: 164.423
BROS: 112.669
low: -54.215
 EV/R 21.831
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 4.421
 Asset To Liability 1.422
 Debt To Capital 0.607
 Debt To Assets 0.349
Debt To Assets QoQ -5.548 %
Debt To Assets YoY 5742.714 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.328
mean: 0.418
BROS: 0.349
median: 0.336
low: 0.145
 Debt To Equity 1.542
Debt To Equity QoQ -9.545 %
Debt To Equity YoY 5436.625 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 5.238
BROS: 1.542
median: 0.578
mean: 0.347
low: -1.9
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 13.127
Price To Book QoQ 2.577 %
Price To Book YoY 56.258 %
Price To Book IPRWA BROS: 13.127
high: 7.503
mean: 4.349
median: 3.493
low: -1.247
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 246.702
Price To Earnings QoQ -43.607 %
Price To Earnings YoY 24.729 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 541.61
mean: 326.421
median: 315.598
BROS: 246.702
low: -186.596
 PE/G Ratio 2.878
 Price To Sales (P/S) 20.084
Price To Sales QoQ -6.96 %
Price To Sales YoY 52.564 %
Price To Sales IPRWA BROS: 20.084
high: 8.931
mean: 4.725
median: 3.479
low: 0.25
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 496.685
Forward PE/G 5.795
Forward P/S 120.129
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 4.076
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.149
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 10.543 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 2.116 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.466
mean: 0.242
median: 0.223
BROS: 0.149
low: 0.119
 Receivables Turnover 33.043
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.427 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 22.02 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 149.802
BROS: 33.043
mean: 23.509
median: 11.024
low: 3.605
 Inventory Turnover 7.335
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 3.34 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY 43.873 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 66.413
median: 26.965
mean: 26.057
BROS: 7.335
low: 0.888
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 2.762
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 5.409
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 12.606 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY -25.146 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 9.181
BROS: 5.409
mean: -2.97
median: -5.739
low: -18.761
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 3.283
 CapEx To Revenue -0.13
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.973
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 833.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 836.9 M
 Invested Capital 836.9 M
 Net Tangible Assets 612.5 M
 Net Working Capital 126.7 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 1.279
 Current Ratio 1.637
Current Ratio QoQ -15.899 %
Current Ratio YoY -25.115 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 4.669
mean: 2.744
median: 2.723
BROS: 1.637
low: 0.258
 Quick Ratio 1.423
Quick Ratio QoQ -18.744 %
Quick Ratio YoY -24.321 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 2.671
median: 2.671
mean: 1.804
BROS: 1.423
low: 0.155
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 12.175
 Cost Of Debt 0.595 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 7.444
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 70.562 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 57.78 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 32.12
mean: 11.088
BROS: 7.444
median: 5.341
low: -29.832
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.249
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 11.228
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.701 %
 Revenue Growth 17.08 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 373.524 %
Revenue Growth YoY -5.682 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 19.65 %
BROS: 17.08 %
median: 1.891 %
mean: -2.421 %
low: -15.433 %
 Earnings Growth 85.714 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -14.286 %
Earnings Growth YoY -22.857 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA BROS: 85.714 %
high: 73.134 %
median: -2.913 %
mean: -4.129 %
low: -40.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 28.87 %
Gross Margin QoQ 13.935 %
Gross Margin YoY 3.901 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 57.761 %
median: 39.105 %
mean: 36.356 %
BROS: 28.87 %
low: -11.149 %
 EBIT Margin 12.668 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 44.876 %
EBIT Margin YoY 24.685 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 25.947 %
mean: 13.147 %
BROS: 12.668 %
median: 9.199 %
low: -30.075 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 13.145 %
Return On Sales QoQ 50.332 %
Return On Sales YoY 29.38 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 25.947 %
mean: 13.358 %
BROS: 13.145 %
median: 9.199 %
low: -10.902 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 35.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 0.427 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -477.876 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -471.304 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 4.389 %
BROS: 0.427 %
mean: 0.297 %
median: 0.207 %
low: -11.081 %
 Free Cash Growth -511.746 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 254.103 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 633.076 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 610.548 %
mean: 173.699 %
median: -53.838 %
low: -481.345 %
BROS: -511.746 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.393
 Cash Flow Margin 11.895 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.93
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.04
 Return On Assets (ROA) 0.919 %
Return On Assets QoQ 57.633 %
Return On Assets YoY 71.136 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 6.018 %
mean: 2.137 %
median: 1.75 %
BROS: 0.919 %
low: -6.328 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.016 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.04
Return On Equity QoQ 57.16 %
Return On Equity YoY 71.77 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.137
BROS: 0.04
median: 0.024
mean: 0.013
low: -0.257
 DuPont ROE 4.148 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 5.295 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 60.212 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -146.451 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 8.642 %
median: 5.572 %
BROS: 5.295 %
mean: 3.959 %
low: -15.429 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near-term price bias balances bullish momentum signals (DI+ rising, MACD crossover, rising short-term EMAs) against valuation-driven mean-reversion risk flagged by a positive MRO and stretched Bollinger placement. Expect consolidation with sporadic upside attempts while momentum confirms; downside risk would heighten if MACD momentum stalls or MRO prompts reversion. Swing traders should monitor confirmation of MACD and DI+ momentum versus MRO reversal cues for directional conviction over the coming six weeks.

About Dutch Bros Inc.

Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:BROS) crafts a unique coffee experience that combines high-quality beverages with an engaging atmosphere. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon, Dutch Bros has built a reputation for vibrant drive-thru coffee shops known for their energetic service. The company’s diverse menu features its signature Dutch Bros Coffee, the invigorating Dutch Bros Rebel energy drinks, and the well-loved Blue Rebel brand. Dutch Bros expands its presence across the United States through a mix of company-operated and franchised locations, bringing its dedication to coffee and community to various neighborhoods. The company prioritizes delivering not only exceptional beverages but also a memorable customer experience marked by friendly interactions and a strong sense of community. Beyond serving coffee, Dutch Bros cultivates a culture centered around positive relationships and community involvement. The company actively engages in giving back to the communities it serves, fostering a sense of connection and commitment. As Dutch Bros continues to grow, it remains dedicated to its core values of quality, service, and community engagement, making it a distinctive presence in the American coffee landscape.



© 2025 WMDST — The World’s Most Dangerous Swing Trader. All rights reserved.