CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) Secures Contracts And Signals Near-Term Momentum

Operational cash generation and recent contract awards underpin a constructive near-term posture for CoreCivic while leverage and margins shape valuation nuance.

Recent News

On August 14, 2025 CoreCivic announced a new intergovernmental services agreement to resume operations at the 600‑bed West Tennessee Detention Facility under an IGSA through August 2030. On August 18, 2025 the Board named Patrick D. Swindle to succeed Damon T. Hininger as Chief Executive Officer, with Hininger remaining a special advisor during the transition. On September 27–29, 2025 reporting highlighted renewed ICE contracts and facility reactivations, including coverage of detainee conditions at the California City facility and a CoreCivic release announcing new ICE contract awards totaling nearly 3,600 beds.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show an emerging trend strength with ADX at 20.81, while DI+ increasing and DI– decreasing indicate a shift toward bullish directional momentum; that directional tilt supports the notion of near-term upside pressure relative to current valuation.

MACD sits at –0.46 with the MACD line above the signal line (MACD signal –0.52) and the MACD trend increasing, a bullish momentum cross despite the MACD remaining below zero; that cross suggests momentum has recently turned constructive and can support short-term strength around current levels.

Price trades below longer-term averages—200‑day average $20.54 and 50‑day average $19.85—while staying above the 20‑day average $18.23 and inside the upper Bollinger band; that configuration implies short‑term upward pressure inside a still‑below‑average longer‑term context, with the SuperTrend upper boundary at $19.11 acting as nearby overhead resistance.

MRO at 9.34 sits positive, indicating price sits above WMDST’s target and carries a tendency toward retracement; the MRO dip‑and‑reversal signal reflects a recent shift back toward range behavior rather than runaway continuation.

RSI at 41.91 with a peak‑and‑reversal pattern signals recent loss of upward momentum and room to consolidate or correct before any sustainable advance; combined with lower average volume versus longer averages, expect constrained directional follow‑through until momentum confirms.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue recorded at $538,165,000 with net income of $38,543,000 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.36, which beat the $0.21 estimate by $0.15 (a 71.43% surprise). The company raised full‑year 2025 guidance alongside these results.

Operating performance shows an operating margin of 12.05% and an EBIT margin of 12.04%, with QoQ improvement in EBIT margin of 24.34% and YoY improvement of 32.06%; the EBIT margin sits below the industry peer mean of 33.74% and below the industry peer median of 32.525% while remaining above the industry peer low of –23.601%.

Cash flow and liquidity present strengths: free cash flow of $61,948,000 produces a free cash flow yield of 2.79%, above the industry peer mean of 0.72% and inside the industry peer range; operating cash flow of $96,712,000 and cash and short‑term investments of $130,524,000 support near‑term obligations while cash conversion to earnings runs at 1.61x.

Leverage shows contrasts: total debt $1,020,468,000 and net debt $889,944,000 yield debt‑to‑EBITDA of 10.64x, reflecting elevated leverage versus typical coverage norms. Debt‑to‑assets at 33.22% and debt‑to‑equity at 69.07% sit below the industry peer mean, while interest coverage at 5.17x stands above the industry peer mean of 3.55x, indicating adequate coverage despite absolute leverage levels.

Profitability metrics reveal constrained returns: return on equity 2.61% under the industry peer mean of 4.94%, and gross margin of 25.98% below the industry peer mean of 54.50%. Asset turnover at 0.1772 registers above the industry peer mean of 0.05227, reflecting efficient revenue generation from assets relative to peers.

Valuation context: enterprise value $3,112,929,997 with an enterprise multiple of 32.46 and a price‑to‑book ratio of 1.50. WMDST values the stock as under‑valued given the combination of improving cash flow, recent contract awards and a valuation multiple that implies upside if operational improvements persist. Do not extrapolate beyond reported metrics when assessing sustainability.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-06-30
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-06
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-11-05
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 87.9 M
 Operating Cash Flow 96.7 M
 Capital Expenditures -34.76 M
 Change In Working Capital 17.3 M
 Dividends Paid -45.00 K
 Cash Flow Delta 55.0 M
 End Period Cash Flow 143.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 538.2 M
 Forward Revenue 78.7 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 398.3 M
 Depreciation 31.1 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 31.1 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 473.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 139.8 M
 EBITDA 95.9 M
 EBIT 64.8 M
 Operating Income 64.8 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 12.5 M
 Net Interest Income -12.54 M
 Income Before Tax 52.3 M
 Tax Provision 13.7 M
 Tax Rate 26.246 %
 Net Income 38.5 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations 38.5 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate 0.21
 EPS Actual 0.36
 EPS Difference 0.15
 EPS Surprise 71.429 %
 Forward EPS 0.21
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 3.1 B
 Intangible Assets 4.8 M
 Net Tangible Assets 1.5 B
 Total Current Assets 487.4 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 130.5 M
 Cash 130.5 M
 Net Receivables 300.4 M
 Inventory
 Long-Term Investments 332.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable
 Short-Term Debt 13.9 M
 Total Current Liabilities 304.0 M
 Net Debt 889.9 M
 Total Debt 1.0 B
 Total Liabilities 1.6 B
EQUITY
 Total Equity 1.5 B
 Retained Earnings -176.32 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 13.77
 Shares Outstanding 107.311 M
 Revenue Per-Share 5.01
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 2.2 B
 Enterprise Value 3.1 B
 Enterprise Multiple 32.458
Enterprise Multiple QoQ -20.729 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY 68.06 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 147.268
median: 91.71
mean: 83.102
low: 35.864
CXW: 32.458
 EV/R 5.784
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.079
 Asset To Liability 1.927
 Debt To Capital 0.409
 Debt To Assets 0.332
Debt To Assets QoQ 1.488 %
Debt To Assets YoY 8042.647 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.375
mean: 0.605
median: 0.562
CXW: 0.332
low: 0.098
 Debt To Equity 0.691
Debt To Equity QoQ 3.665 %
Debt To Equity YoY 8353.611 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.161
median: 1.551
mean: 1.408
CXW: 0.691
low: -2.998
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 1.505
Price To Book QoQ -2.601 %
Price To Book YoY 42.13 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 5.536
mean: 2.723
median: 2.598
CXW: 1.505
low: -4.845
 Price To Earnings (P/E) 58.118
Price To Earnings QoQ -35.876 %
Price To Earnings YoY -28.898 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 444.318
mean: 221.4
median: 216.919
CXW: 58.118
low: -238.311
 PE/G Ratio 1.028
 Price To Sales (P/S) 4.131
Price To Sales QoQ -11.429 %
Price To Sales YoY 32.122 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 57.098
median: 34.56
mean: 29.487
CXW: 4.131
low: 0.697
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 101.043
Forward PE/G 1.788
Forward P/S 28.259
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage 3.643
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.177
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.603 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY 7.212 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA CXW: 0.177
high: 0.174
mean: 0.052
median: 0.042
low: -0.003
 Receivables Turnover 1.848
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.926 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 3.296 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 9.734
median: 3.342
mean: 2.921
CXW: 1.848
low: -1.874
 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 49.385
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC)
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.933
 CapEx To Revenue -0.065
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.118
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 2.5 B
 Net Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Invested Capital 2.5 B
 Net Tangible Assets 1.5 B
 Net Working Capital 183.5 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.429
 Current Ratio 1.604
Current Ratio QoQ 3.413 %
Current Ratio YoY 11.562 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 9.59
CXW: 1.604
mean: 1.243
median: 0.905
low: 0.271
 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio QoQ
Quick Ratio YoY
Quick Ratio IPRWA
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA 10.64
 Cost Of Debt 0.923 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.168
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ 66.331 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 97.856 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 8.667
CXW: 5.168
mean: 3.548
median: 2.5
low: -4.816
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.169
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO)
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio 856.511
 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.001
 Dividend Rate 0.00
 Dividend Yield 0.0
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 2.305 %
 Revenue Growth 10.138 %
Revenue Growth QoQ 420.699 %
Revenue Growth YoY -579.792 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 28.48 %
CXW: 10.138 %
mean: 3.837 %
median: 2.501 %
low: -26.827 %
 Earnings Growth 56.522 %
Earnings Growth QoQ 60.146 %
Earnings Growth YoY -49.758 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 366.667 %
CXW: 56.522 %
median: -6.897 %
mean: -20.941 %
low: -256.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 25.981 %
Gross Margin QoQ 11.468 %
Gross Margin YoY 11.334 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 96.469 %
median: 55.696 %
mean: 54.502 %
CXW: 25.981 %
low: 3.604 %
 EBIT Margin 12.041 %
EBIT Margin QoQ 24.339 %
EBIT Margin YoY 32.057 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 102.62 %
mean: 33.74 %
median: 32.525 %
CXW: 12.041 %
low: -23.601 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) 12.047 %
Return On Sales QoQ 24.401 %
Return On Sales YoY 32.123 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 61.301 %
mean: 28.629 %
median: 22.163 %
CXW: 12.047 %
low: -1.74 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 61.9 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 2.787 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ 246.211 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY -13.259 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA high: 3.921 %
CXW: 2.787 %
median: 0.984 %
mean: 0.723 %
low: -0.652 %
 Free Cash Growth 237.499 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ 3065.387 %
Free Cash Growth YoY -1629.883 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA CXW: 237.499 %
high: 177.405 %
median: 1.349 %
mean: -36.925 %
low: -176.271 %
 Free Cash To Net Income 1.607
 Cash Flow Margin 9.53 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings 1.331
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.03
 Return On Assets (ROA) 1.269 %
Return On Assets QoQ 50.0 %
Return On Assets YoY 98.592 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 2.201 %
CXW: 1.269 %
mean: 0.999 %
median: 0.947 %
low: -0.62 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) 2.341 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) 0.026
Return On Equity QoQ 53.29 %
Return On Equity YoY 99.312 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.178
mean: 0.049
median: 0.047
CXW: 0.026
low: -0.046
 DuPont ROE 2.611 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) 1.913 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ 26.941 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -103.012 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 4.362 %
mean: 1.927 %
CXW: 1.913 %
median: 1.542 %
low: -1.142 %

Six-Week Outlook

Near term, expect price behavior to oscillate within a range defined by short‑term support near the lower Bollinger band and resistance near the SuperTrend upper line and the 50‑day average. Recent directional indicator shifts and a bullish MACD cross favor attempts at testing overheads, while positive MRO and a declining RSI pattern caution toward periodic pullbacks. Liquidity and improving cash flow reduce downside volatility risk relative to peers, but elevated debt‑to‑EBITDA and pressure from longer‑term moving averages suggest consolidation until momentum and margin expansion produce clearer directional confirmation.

About CoreCivic, Inc.

CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) delivers diversified government solutions across the United States, with a focus on corrections, detention, and residential reentry management. Founded in 1983 and based in Brentwood, Tennessee, CoreCivic operates through three main segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. CoreCivic Safety manages correctional and detention facilities, providing secure and humane environments. CoreCivic Community runs a network of residential reentry centers, aiming to reduce recidivism through programs centered on education, life skills, and employment training. CoreCivic Properties offers real estate solutions tailored to government needs, leasing properties that support various public sector functions. CoreCivic integrates rehabilitation and educational initiatives within its facilities, including substance abuse treatment and faith-based services. By addressing the complexities of the criminal justice system, CoreCivic plays a significant role in fostering safer communities and aiding individuals in their transition back into society. Through its comprehensive approach, CoreCivic remains a trusted partner in advancing public safety and correctional solutions.



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