Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) Accelerates Recovery As Comparable Sales Improve

Genesco shows improving top-line momentum and strong free cash flow while operating margins remain negative; technical signals favor a short-term bullish bias against an under-valued baseline.

Recent News

On September 30, 2025 the company announced creation of a Journeys Global Retail Group to unite Journeys, schuh and Little Burgundy under a single leadership structure to sharpen consumer targeting and merchant impact.

On October 21, 2025 analysts compiled a consensus rating indicating a moderate-buy mix of opinions, with a $30 average 12‑month target among recent coverage.

Technical Analysis

Directional indicators show ADX at 16.97, indicating no established trend, while DI+ sits at 23.70 and increases and DI- at 26.16 and decreases — both DI moves imply bullish directional pressure even though trend strength remains weak. The lack of ADX strength suggests upside momentum could stall without follow-through volume.

MACD reads -0.02 and has been increasing while the signal line sits at -0.24; MACD has crossed above its signal line, a bullish momentum signal that supports near-term upside potential for price action.

MRO equals -24.26 with a dip-and-reversal pattern, indicating the price sits below a modeled target and the oscillator’s reversal signals potential upward mean reversion pressure toward that target.

RSI at 53.34 and rising signals mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions; momentum increases align with MACD’s bullish cross, suggesting continuation is plausible while RSI remains near neutral.

Price sits at $31.15 above the 20‑day average ($29.03), the 12/26‑day EMAs ($29.74), and the 200‑day average ($27.44). The proximity above several moving averages plus Ichimoku components (Tenkan $29.15, Kijun $30.72, Senkou A $30.61) implies short-term support near $30 and technical positioning that favors higher intraday ranges while ADX stays low.

Bollinger bands place the close above the 1x upper band ($30.47) but below the 2x upper band ($31.90), indicating price strength that could face resistance near the upper band region. SuperTrend lower support at $28.84 provides a defined short-term support level for risk management decisions.

 


Fundamental Analysis

Total revenue stands at $545,965,000 with revenue growth of 15.19% and YoY revenue growth of 2.83%; QoQ revenue growth shows a sharp decline (-141.659%), indicating seasonal or period timing effects between comparable quarters. Gross margin equals 45.78%, above the industry peer mean of 36.98%, supporting stronger unit economics at the gross-profit level.

Operating and EBIT margins register negative: operating margin -2.622% and EBIT margin -2.672%. The EBIT margin falls below the industry peer range low of -1.346% and well below the industry peer mean (10.721%) and median (12.163%), reflecting ongoing operating drag despite improving sales trends. Quarter-over-quarter EBIT margin contracted by -55.29%, while YoY EBIT margin improved by 35.43% from the prior-year comparable period.

Net income recorded a loss of $18,471,000 and EPS actual equals -$1.14 versus an estimate of -$1.25, producing an EPS surprise ratio of 8.8%, showing earnings missed expectations narrowed. Forward EPS sits at $0.49 with a forward PE of 47.16; trailing PE remains negative at -21.75 given current GAAP losses.

Balance-sheet and liquidity metrics: cash and short-term investments total $40,989,000, operating cash flow equals $86,343,000, and free cash flow equals $71,661,000, producing a free cash flow yield of 26.10%, substantially above the industry peer mean of 1.86% and indicating strong cash generation relative to market capitalization. Current ratio equals 1.56, slightly above the industry peer mean of 1.52, while quick ratio at 0.35 sits below the industry peer mean of 0.59, reflecting inventory reliance in working capital.

Leverage: total debt equals $589,244,000 with debt-to-equity of 1.1656, slightly below the industry peer mean of 1.2008. Net debt registers $29,963,000, indicating available liquidity after factoring cash on hand. Inventory of $501,008,000 and a cash conversion cycle of ~124 days exceed the industry peer mean of ~72 days, signalling elevated working capital investment.

Valuation perspective: WMDST values the stock as under-valued. Cheap price-to-book at 0.54 versus an industry peer mean of 3.80 and very high free cash flow yield underpin the under-valued assessment, even as negative operating and EBIT margins remain the principal valuation headwind.

MOST-RECENT QUARTERLY REPORT
REPORT PERIOD ENDING: 2025-07-31
REPORT DATE: 2025-08-28
NEXT REPORT DATE: 2025-12-03
CASH FLOW  Begin Period Cash Flow 21.7 M
 Operating Cash Flow 86.3 M
 Capital Expenditures -14.68 M
 Change In Working Capital 87.8 M
 Dividends Paid
 Cash Flow Delta 19.2 M
 End Period Cash Flow 41.0 M
 
INCOME STATEMENT REVENUE
 Total Revenue 546.0 M
 Forward Revenue -39.09 M
COSTS
 Cost Of Revenue 296.0 M
 Depreciation 13.5 M
 Depreciation and Amortization 13.5 M
 Research and Development
 Total Operating Expenses 560.3 M
PROFITABILITY
 Gross Profit 249.9 M
 EBITDA -1.11 M
 EBIT -14.59 M
 Operating Income -14.32 M
 Interest Income
 Interest Expense 1.5 M
 Net Interest Income -1.46 M
 Income Before Tax -16.05 M
 Tax Provision 2.4 M
 Tax Rate 21.0 %
 Net Income -18.47 M
 Net Income From Continuing Operations -18.47 M
EARNINGS
 EPS Estimate -1.25
 EPS Actual -1.14
 EPS Difference 0.11
 EPS Surprise 8.8 %
 Forward EPS 0.49
 
BALANCE SHEET ASSETS
 Total Assets 1.4 B
 Intangible Assets 36.7 M
 Net Tangible Assets 469.6 M
 Total Current Assets 645.9 M
 Cash and Short-Term Investments 41.0 M
 Cash 41.0 M
 Net Receivables 54.3 M
 Inventory 501.0 M
 Long-Term Investments 25.1 M
LIABILITIES
 Accounts Payable 193.0 M
 Short-Term Debt 13.3 M
 Total Current Liabilities 414.4 M
 Net Debt 30.0 M
 Total Debt 589.2 M
 Total Liabilities 915.6 M
EQUITY
 Total Equity 505.5 M
 Retained Earnings 213.0 M
VALUATION & PER-SHARE METRICS EQUITY & PER-SHARE METRICS
 Book Value Per-Share 46.82
 Shares Outstanding 10.797 M
 Revenue Per-Share 50.57
VALUATION
 Market Capitalization 274.5 M
 Enterprise Value 822.8 M
 Enterprise Multiple -738.589
Enterprise Multiple QoQ 1167.221 %
Enterprise Multiple YoY -501.731 %
Enterprise Multiple IPRWA high: 105.517
mean: 49.405
median: 48.494
low: -11.538
GCO: -738.589
 EV/R 1.507
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Asset To Equity 2.813
 Asset To Liability 1.553
 Debt To Capital 0.538
 Debt To Assets 0.414
Debt To Assets QoQ -8.678 %
Debt To Assets YoY 134.005 %
Debt To Assets IPRWA high: 1.051
mean: 0.418
GCO: 0.414
median: 0.345
low: 0.22
 Debt To Equity 1.166
Debt To Equity QoQ -4.651 %
Debt To Equity YoY 152.953 %
Debt To Equity IPRWA high: 4.701
mean: 1.201
GCO: 1.166
median: 0.879
low: -2.166
PRICE-BASED VALUATION
 Price To Book (P/B) 0.543
Price To Book QoQ 11.178 %
Price To Book YoY -8.965 %
Price To Book IPRWA high: 8.446
mean: 3.801
median: 3.339
GCO: 0.543
low: -4.028
 Price To Earnings (P/E) -21.755
Price To Earnings QoQ 88.766 %
Price To Earnings YoY -36.147 %
Price To Earnings IPRWA high: 151.774
median: 72.682
mean: 65.315
GCO: -21.755
low: -89.111
 PE/G Ratio 0.49
 Price To Sales (P/S) 0.503
Price To Sales QoQ -6.417 %
Price To Sales YoY -16.755 %
Price To Sales IPRWA high: 10.893
mean: 4.553
median: 4.295
GCO: 0.503
low: 0.22
FORWARD MULTIPLES
Forward P/E 47.157
Forward PE/G -1.062
Forward P/S -7.023
EFFICIENCY OPERATIONAL
 Operating Leverage -3.193
ASSET & SALES
 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.386
Asset Turnover Ratio QoQ 11.669 %
Asset Turnover Ratio YoY -1.02 %
Asset Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 0.608
GCO: 0.386
median: 0.345
mean: 0.324
low: 0.109
 Receivables Turnover 10.192
Receivables Turnover Ratio QoQ 9.322 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio YoY 4.421 %
Receivables Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 90.77
mean: 18.413
median: 15.181
GCO: 10.192
low: 0.289
 Inventory Turnover 0.622
Inventory Turnover Ratio QoQ 7.775 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio YoY -6.234 %
Inventory Turnover Ratio IPRWA high: 1.735
mean: 0.968
median: 0.749
GCO: 0.622
low: 0.364
 Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 8.953
CASH CYCLE
 Cash Conversion Cycle Days (CCC) 123.859
Cash Conversion Cycle Days QoQ 60.38 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days YoY 9.914 %
Cash Conversion Cycle Days IPRWA high: 351.932
GCO: 123.859
median: 82.267
mean: 72.251
low: 12.498
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
 Cash Conversion Ratio 2.358
 CapEx To Revenue -0.027
 CapEx To Depreciation -1.09
 
CAPITAL, LIQUIDITY & COVERAGE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
 Total Capital 564.0 M
 Net Invested Capital 576.5 M
 Invested Capital 576.5 M
 Net Tangible Assets 469.6 M
 Net Working Capital 231.5 M
LIQUIDITY
 Cash Ratio 0.099
 Current Ratio 1.559
Current Ratio QoQ -18.549 %
Current Ratio YoY 1.654 %
Current Ratio IPRWA high: 2.461
GCO: 1.559
mean: 1.522
median: 1.503
low: 0.784
 Quick Ratio 0.35
Quick Ratio QoQ -36.591 %
Quick Ratio YoY -11.617 %
Quick Ratio IPRWA high: 1.528
mean: 0.592
median: 0.554
GCO: 0.35
low: 0.063
COVERAGE & LEVERAGE
 Debt To EBITDA -528.944
 Cost Of Debt 0.188 %
 Interest Coverage Ratio -9.999
Interest Coverage Ratio QoQ -52.734 %
Interest Coverage Ratio YoY 29.809 %
Interest Coverage Ratio IPRWA high: 52.0
median: 17.949
mean: 16.844
GCO: -9.999
low: -12.777
 Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.034
TIMING / LIQUIDITY
 Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) 56.885
DIVIDENDS
 Dividend Coverage Ratio
 Dividend Payout Ratio
 Dividend Rate
 Dividend Yield
PERFORMANCE GROWTH
 Asset Growth Rate 1.234 %
 Revenue Growth 15.189 %
Revenue Growth QoQ -141.659 %
Revenue Growth YoY 2.83 %
Revenue Growth IPRWA high: 40.558 %
GCO: 15.189 %
mean: 7.882 %
median: 7.654 %
low: -12.613 %
 Earnings Growth -44.39 %
Earnings Growth QoQ -72.747 %
Earnings Growth YoY -26.599 %
Earnings Growth IPRWA high: 285.714 %
mean: 18.015 %
median: 8.108 %
GCO: -44.39 %
low: -225.0 %
MARGINS
 Gross Margin 45.781 %
Gross Margin QoQ -1.894 %
Gross Margin YoY -2.119 %
Gross Margin IPRWA high: 68.419 %
GCO: 45.781 %
median: 39.15 %
mean: 36.982 %
low: 10.882 %
 EBIT Margin -2.672 %
EBIT Margin QoQ -55.288 %
EBIT Margin YoY 35.428 %
EBIT Margin IPRWA high: 18.428 %
median: 12.163 %
mean: 10.721 %
low: -1.346 %
GCO: -2.672 %
 Return On Sales (ROS) -2.622 %
Return On Sales QoQ -56.124 %
Return On Sales YoY 32.894 %
Return On Sales IPRWA high: 18.428 %
median: 12.163 %
mean: 10.26 %
GCO: -2.622 %
low: -3.764 %
CASH FLOW
 Free Cash Flow (FCF) 71.7 M
 Free Cash Flow Yield 26.103 %
Free Cash Flow Yield QoQ -155.429 %
Free Cash Flow Yield YoY 317.849 %
Free Cash Flow Yield IPRWA GCO: 26.103 %
high: 7.329 %
mean: 1.863 %
median: 1.175 %
low: -2.178 %
 Free Cash Growth -159.75 %
Free Cash Growth QoQ -26.093 %
Free Cash Growth YoY 6.931 %
Free Cash Growth IPRWA high: 535.911 %
median: -86.123 %
mean: -94.663 %
GCO: -159.75 %
low: -534.848 %
 Free Cash To Net Income -3.88
 Cash Flow Margin 2.595 %
 Cash Flow To Earnings -0.767
VALUE & RETURNS
 Economic Value Added 0.01
 Return On Assets (ROA) -1.307 %
Return On Assets QoQ -15.623 %
Return On Assets YoY 75.908 %
Return On Assets IPRWA high: 4.767 %
median: 3.138 %
mean: 2.73 %
low: -0.754 %
GCO: -1.307 %
 Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) -1.448 %
 Return On Equity (ROE) -0.037
Return On Equity QoQ -10.243 %
Return On Equity YoY 94.465 %
Return On Equity IPRWA high: 0.115
mean: 0.071
median: 0.068
GCO: -0.037
low: -0.041
 DuPont ROE -3.597 %
 Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) -1.999 %
Return On Invested Capital QoQ -36.58 %
Return On Invested Capital YoY -54.671 %
Return On Invested Capital IPRWA high: 11.206 %
mean: 6.315 %
median: 5.305 %
low: -0.654 %
GCO: -1.999 %

Six-Week Outlook

Short-term price action likely remains range-bound with a bullish tilt. Bullish inputs include a MACD cross above its signal line, rising RSI near 53, MRO’s negative reading with a dip-and-reversal, price above key moving averages, and company-level free cash flow strength that supports valuation. ADX below 20 warns against strong trend follow-through; expect incremental upside toward near-term resistance in the $31–$32 zone with initial technical support near $30 and more substantive support at $28.84 (SuperTrend lower).

Swing traders should watch for confirmation in volume above the 10‑day average (~84,101) to validate continuation; failure to hold $30–$29 would indicate mean reversion pressure and raise the probability of a pullback to the lower support band or the 200‑day average near $27.44.

About Genesco Inc.

Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) is a dynamic leader in the retail and wholesale sectors, specializing in footwear, apparel, and accessories. Headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, Genesco has carved a substantial presence across the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland. The company is structured into four distinct segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands. The Journeys Group is renowned for its trendy footwear and accessories, catering to young men, women, and children through its Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy chains, both in-store and online. Schuh Group operates a network of retail stores in the UK and Ireland, offering a wide range of casual and athletic footwear, complemented by a robust e-commerce platform. Johnston & Murphy Group stands out with its sophisticated collection of men’s and women’s footwear, apparel, and accessories, available through retail, e-commerce, and wholesale channels. The Genesco Brands segment enhances the company’s portfolio by marketing popular brands like Levi’s, Dockers, and G.H. Bass, and designing STARTER brand footwear. With a rich history dating back to 1934, Genesco continues to innovate and expand its global footprint, delivering style and quality to diverse markets.



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